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Beyond Bitcoin: A Statistical Comparison of Leading Cryptocurrencies and Fiat Currencies and Their Impact on Portfolio Diversification 超越比特币:主要加密货币和法定货币的统计比较及其对投资组合多元化的影响
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.3905/jai.2019.1.072
Stefan Ehlers, Kolja Gauer
Cryptocurrencies have developed very dynamically although their future role is yet unclear. In any event, they are too big to ignore. The purpose of this article is to contribute to the understanding of cryptocurrencies in an individual and in a portfolio context. The study is based on daily closing prices of leading cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Dash) and fiat currencies (EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, and JPY), all measured against USD. The analysis is threefold: First, the authors analyze basic statistical properties, such as correlation and autocorrelation of returns. Second, they perform a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (KS test) and a variance ratio test (VRT) with heteroscedasticity adjustment. Third, they solve more than 4,800 optimization problems to analyze the impact of individual crypto- and fiat currencies on portfolio diversification. Among other findings, the authors find that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, CAD, JPY, and EUR contribute most to reduce the variance of a mixed portfolio. In a portfolio consisting of cryptocurrencies only, Bitcoin and Ripple have the largest diversification effect. The findings provide insights for investors who focus on minimum variance portfolios or, more generally, for investors who seek to reduce return volatility exposure, as well as for monetary authorities, cryptocurrency issuers, and providers of market infrastructure. TOPICS: Real assets/alternative investments/private equity, statistical methods, portfolio construction
加密货币的发展非常动态,尽管它们未来的角色尚不清楚。无论如何,它们太大了,不容忽视。本文的目的是有助于在个人和投资组合环境中理解加密货币。这项研究是基于领先的加密货币(比特币、以太坊、瑞波币、莱特币和达世币)和法定货币(欧元、英镑、瑞士法郎、加元和日元)的每日收盘价,所有这些货币都以美元为基准。本文从三个方面进行了分析:首先,分析了收益率的相关和自相关等基本统计性质。其次,采用异方差调整后的Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验(KS检验)和方差比检验(VRT)。第三,他们解决了4800多个优化问题,以分析单个加密货币和法定货币对投资组合多样化的影响。在其他发现中,作者发现比特币、以太坊、达世币、加元、日元和欧元对减少混合投资组合的方差贡献最大。在仅由加密货币组成的投资组合中,比特币和瑞波币具有最大的分散效果。这些发现为专注于最小方差投资组合的投资者,或者更广泛地说,为寻求降低回报波动风险的投资者,以及货币当局、加密货币发行人和市场基础设施提供商提供了见解。主题:实物资产/另类投资/私募股权,统计方法,投资组合构建
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引用次数: 14
Liquid Alternative Mutual Funds versus Hedge Funds: Returns, Risk Factors, and Diversification 流动性另类共同基金与对冲基金:收益、风险因素和多样化
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.3905/jai.2019.1.073
Jonathan S. Hartley
Despite the rapid rise of the number of liquid alternative mutual funds (LAMFs) available to retail investors in recent years, few studies have compared how their returns, risk, and other characteristics (fees, turnover, and assets) differ from their hedge fund counterparts across their entire history. Being one of the first comprehensive studies to analyze more than two decades of LAMF performance, this article compares the performance of LAMFs to hedge funds, both in aggregate and broken down by investment styles and performance quintiles. Overall, LAMFs underperform hedge funds on average by 1% to 2% per year on a net-of-fee basis when controlling for standard risk factors. These findings provide important implications for investors seeking liquid hedge fund–like returns as well as for policymakers who have recently proposed imposing derivative position limits on 1940 Act investment vehicles. TOPICS: Mutual funds/passive investing/indexing, real assets/alternative investments/private equity, performance measurement, legal/regulatory/public policy
尽管近年来可供散户投资者使用的流动性另类共同基金(LAMF)数量迅速增加,但很少有研究比较其回报、风险和其他特征(费用、营业额和资产)在其整个历史上与对冲基金同行的差异。作为最早分析LAMF 20多年业绩的综合研究之一,本文将LAMF的业绩与对冲基金进行了比较,包括总体业绩和按投资风格和业绩五分位数细分的业绩。总体而言,在控制标准风险因素的情况下,LAMF在扣除费用的基础上平均每年比对冲基金差1%至2%。这些发现对寻求流动性对冲基金类回报的投资者以及最近提议对1940年法案投资工具施加衍生品头寸限制的政策制定者提供了重要启示。主题:共同基金/被动投资/指数化、实物资产/另类投资/私募股权、绩效衡量、法律/监管/公共政策
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引用次数: 3
The Predictability of Alternative UCITS Fund Returns 另类UCITS基金收益的可预测性
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.3905/jai.2019.22.1.076
M. Busack, W. Drobetz, Jan Tille
The authors study the out-of-sample predictability of the returns of pan-European harmonized mutual funds that follow hedge fund–like investment strategies (“alternative UCITS”) and allow retail investors to gain access to nontraditional investment strategies. Given these funds’ higher liquidity compared with hedge funds, investors could exploit relevant information more easily and use it for their asset allocation and risk management decisions. Using a large set of fundamental and technical variables, the authors estimate single predictor models, combination forecasts, and multivariate regression models. Forming hypothetical funds-of-funds portfolios based on predicted returns generates economic gains for investors, especially during crisis times. Combination approaches and multivariate models reduce estimation uncertainty and lead to economic gains across different market environments. TOPICS: Mutual funds/passive investing/indexing, real assets/alternative investments/private equity, performance measurement, developed markets, statistical methods
作者研究了泛欧协调共同基金收益的样本外可预测性,这些基金遵循类似对冲基金的投资策略(“另类UCITS”),并允许散户投资者获得非传统投资策略。与对冲基金相比,这些基金的流动性更高,投资者可以更容易地利用相关信息,并将其用于资产配置和风险管理决策。使用大量的基础和技术变量,作者估计了单一预测模型、组合预测和多元回归模型。根据预测回报形成假想的基金的基金投资组合可以为投资者带来经济收益,尤其是在危机时期。组合方法和多元模型减少了估计的不确定性,并导致不同市场环境下的经济收益。主题:共同基金/被动投资/指数,实物资产/另类投资/私募股权,绩效评估,发达市场,统计方法
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引用次数: 0
Editor’s Letter 编辑的信
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.3905/jai.2019.22.1.001
Hossein Kazemi
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引用次数: 0
The Myth of Hedge Fund Fee Diversification 对冲基金费用分散的神话
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI: 10.3905/jai.2019.1.077
Fei Meng, D. Saunders, L. Seco
Many innovative hedge fund fee structures have been introduced in recent years in response to concerns about both the level of hedge fund fees and the incentives they may provide. A traditional fee structure consists of a flat fee charged as a percentage of the assets under management, together with a performance fee consisting of a percentage of the profits earned. A fee structure that has become more popular recently is the first-loss structure, in which the manager receives a higher performance fee in return for providing some downside protection to investors by insuring some of their losses. Combinations of these fee structures have also been proposed, with the possibility that investors may benefit from some diversification among the fee structures. By considering the investors’ risk–reward trade-off, the authors show that there is in fact very little benefit from such fee diversification. TOPICS: Real assets/alternative investments/private equity, performance measurement
近年来,为了应对人们对对冲基金费用水平及其可能提供的激励措施的担忧,引入了许多创新的对冲基金费用结构。传统的费用结构包括按管理资产的百分比收取的固定费用,以及按所赚利润的百分比支付的绩效费。最近越来越流行的一种费用结构是第一种损失结构,在这种结构中,经理可以获得更高的绩效费,以通过为投资者的一些损失投保来为投资者提供一些下行保护。还提出了这些费用结构的组合,投资者可能会从费用结构的多样化中受益。通过考虑投资者的风险-回报权衡,作者表明,这种费用多元化实际上收效甚微。主题:实物资产/另类投资/私募股权、绩效衡量
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引用次数: 2
The Long and Short of Trend Followers 趋势追随者的长短
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI: 10.3905/jai.2019.1.076
Joakim Agerback, Tor Gudmundsen-Sinclair, J. Peltomäki
The authors propose the use of short and long portfolios to analyze the risk and return characteristics of trend-following strategies. They present evidence for the asymmetric profitability of trend-following strategies, showing that returns to the long side are more profitable. They also find that the exposure of CTAs to the long and short sides of trend-following strategies has become more biased toward long positions. The main lesson of the study is that the long and short sides should be differentiated in an analysis of dynamic investment strategies. TOPICS: Portfolio construction, commodities, statistical methods, performance measurement
作者建议使用多头和空头组合来分析趋势跟随策略的风险和收益特征。他们为趋势跟随策略的非对称盈利能力提供了证据,表明多头的回报更有利可图。他们还发现,cta对趋势跟随策略的多头和空头的敞口变得更加偏向多头头寸。该研究的主要教训是,在分析动态投资策略时应区分多头和空头。主题:投资组合构建、商品、统计方法、绩效评估
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引用次数: 0
Testing Futures Trading Strategy Assumptions 检验期货交易策略假设
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-27 DOI: 10.3905/jai.2019.1.075
Mark C. Hutchinson, John R. O'Brien
There is a growing literature examining futures-based trading strategies and the performance of commodity trading advisors (CTAs). In this article, the authors test the validity of three key assumptions used in these studies. They test the validity of basing conclusions on analysis of synthetic rather than market price data; they review the evidence on the level of transaction costs, to test the cost model used in modeling futures-based trading strategy; and finally, they test the assumption that CTAs generally charge a management fee of 2% and incentive (performance) fee of 20%. In addition, they present the trend over time in the structure of fees. Their findings suggest that inferences based on synthetic futures replicate those based on exchange-traded data. Over the full period, the average fee levels were 1.82% (management) and 20.2% (incentive)—not significantly different from the levels used in the literature. TOPICS: Futures and forward contracts, real assets/alternative investments/private equity, commodities
有越来越多的文献研究基于期货的交易策略和商品交易顾问(cta)的表现。在这篇文章中,作者测试了这些研究中使用的三个关键假设的有效性。他们检验了基于综合而非市场价格数据分析得出结论的有效性;他们回顾了交易成本水平的证据,以检验用于建模期货交易策略的成本模型;最后,他们测试了一个假设,即cta通常收取2%的管理费和20%的激励(绩效)费。此外,它们还呈现了收费结构随时间的变化趋势。他们的发现表明,基于合成期货的推断与基于交易所交易数据的推断相同。在整个期间,平均费用水平为1.82%(管理)和20.2%(激励)-与文献中使用的水平没有显着差异。主题:期货和远期合约、实物资产/另类投资/私募股权、大宗商品
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引用次数: 3
Bitcoin Price Anomalies: P2P Trading on LocalBitcoins 比特币价格异常:本地比特币的P2P交易
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-15 DOI: 10.3905/JAI.V22I1.4816
M. Holub, Jackie Johnson
The purpose of this paper is to understand the high Australian dollar Bitcoin prices on LocalBitcoins (localbitcoins.com), which appear to be out of line with market prices.  The findings indicate that the price driver is not a reaction to market conditions, but a consequence of the high risk payment methods deemed acceptable by LocalBitcoins.  With sellers being allowed to offer Bitcoins in exchange for gift card codes, Bitcoin is traded at four to five times the market price.  These trades are typically small in value and the construction of a value-weighted daily Bitcoin price series reveals more accurately LocalBitcoins’ daily price movements.  Benchmarking against CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) shows that LocalBitcoins trades can fall above or below this benchmark.  When viewed in relation to the LocalBitcoins two market system, a value-weighted price can be calculated to determine a daily premium and discount.  Value-weighted prices can also be used to compare trades on LocalBitcoins with the more traditional Bitcoin exchange BTC Markets.  These comparisons reveal that prices on LocalBitcoins are not more volatile than prices on BTC Markets or the BPI.  It is recommended that any analysis of price behavior on LocalBitcoins take into account the dollar value of the trades to address the adverse impact that high price-low value trades have on volatility.  Otherwise, a conclusion of high volatility will continue to persist.
本文的目的是了解LocalBitcoins(localbitcoin.com)上澳元比特币的高价格,这似乎与市场价格不符。研究结果表明,价格驱动因素不是对市场条件的反应,而是本地比特币认为可以接受的高风险支付方式的结果。由于卖家可以提供比特币来换取礼品卡代码,比特币的交易价格是市场价格的四到五倍。这些交易通常价值较小,构建价值加权的每日比特币价格序列可以更准确地揭示本地比特币的每日价格走势。根据CoinDesk的比特币价格指数(BPI)进行的基准测试表明,本地比特币交易可能会高于或低于该基准。当与LocalBitcoins双市场系统相关时,可以计算价值加权价格来确定每日溢价和折扣。价值加权价格也可以用于比较本地比特币与更传统的比特币交易所BTC Markets的交易。这些比较表明,本地比特币的价格并不比BTC Markets或BPI的价格更具波动性。建议对本地比特币价格行为的任何分析都要考虑交易的美元价值,以解决高价低值交易对波动性的不利影响。否则,高波动性的结论将继续存在。
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引用次数: 1
Optimal Currency Hedging: Horizon Matters 最优货币套期保值:地平线问题
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3403759
Nelson Arruda, Alain Bergeron, M. Kritzman
Investors have long debated what fraction of their portfolios’ currency exposure they should hedge, if any. The answers cover a broad range, often with dubious rationale. Yet most informed investors agree that the solution should use mean–variance optimization to maximize expected utility or, when the return means are assumed to equal zero, minimize risk. However, this approach presents a serious challenge because it depends on how currencies covary with each other and with the underlying portfolio, and these covariances, themselves, vary significantly with the return interval used to estimate them. The authors show that monthly covariances produce unreliable results for horizons that are longer than one month. TOPICS: Currency, portfolio construction, quantitative methods, statistical methods, risk management, global markets Key Findings ▪ Investors understand that currency exposure introduces unnecessary risk to globally diversified portfolios. In the absence of views about the direction of future currency returns, they recognize they should manage this risk by hedging some fraction of this currency exposure. ▪ Sophisticated investors rely on mean–variance optimization to determine the specific fraction of currency exposure to hedge to minimize risk. Still, they typically misestimate volatilities and correlations because they use the wrong return interval to estimate these values. ▪ Our research shows that the increase in risk resulting from using the wrong return interval to estimate hedge ratios is significant, about the same magnitude as misallocating a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio by 10% and without compensation of a higher expected return.
长期以来,投资者一直在争论,如果有的话,他们应该对冲投资组合中的货币敞口的哪一部分。答案涵盖范围很广,通常有可疑的理由。然而,大多数知情的投资者都认为,解决方案应该使用均值-方差优化来最大化预期效用,或者,当回报均值等于零时,将风险降至最低。然而,这种方法带来了严重的挑战,因为它取决于货币之间以及与基础投资组合的协变量,而这些协变量本身随着用于估计它们的回报区间而显著变化。作者表明,对于超过一个月的视界,月度协变量会产生不可靠的结果。主题:货币、投资组合构建、量化方法、统计方法、风险管理、全球市场关键发现▪ 投资者明白,货币风险敞口会给全球多元化投资组合带来不必要的风险。在对未来货币回报方向缺乏看法的情况下,他们认识到应该通过对冲部分货币风险来管理这种风险。▪ 成熟的投资者依靠均值-方差优化来确定对冲货币敞口的具体比例,以将风险降至最低。尽管如此,他们通常会错误估计波动率和相关性,因为他们使用了错误的回报区间来估计这些值。▪ 我们的研究表明,使用错误的回报区间来估计对冲比率所导致的风险增加是显著的,与将50/50的股票/债券投资组合错配10%的程度大致相同,而且没有补偿更高的预期回报。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking Capital Structure Arbitrage: A Price Discovery Perspective 重新思考资本结构套利:一个价格发现的视角
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-05-23 DOI: 10.3905/jai.2020.1.093
Davide E. Avino, Emese Lazar
The capital structure arbitrage strategy exploits the discrepancies between the credit default swap and equity markets. It assumes that both markets instantaneously react to new information, so it fails to take into account the lead–lag relationships between the prices in the two markets and their form of cointegration. The authors introduce three new alternative strategies that exploit the information provided by the time-varying price discovery of the equity and credit markets and the cointegration of the two markets. The authors implement the strategies for US and European obligors and find that these outperform traditional arbitrage trading during the financial crisis. Furthermore, the returns of the new strategies have a lower correlation with market returns than the standard capital structure arbitrage. TOPICS: Derivatives, financial crises and financial market history Key Findings • We introduce three new capital structure arbitrage strategies. • The new trading strategies incorporate price discovery signals of both equity and credit markets. • The trading strategies we introduce outperform the standard capital structure arbitrage during the financial crisis of 2007–2008.
资本结构套利策略利用了信用违约掉期和股票市场之间的差异。它假设两个市场都会对新信息做出即时反应,因此没有考虑到两个市场价格之间的超前-滞后关系及其协整形式。作者介绍了三种新的替代策略,它们利用了股票和信贷市场的时变价格发现以及这两个市场的协整所提供的信息。作者为美国和欧洲的债务人实施了这些策略,并发现这些策略在金融危机期间优于传统的套利交易。此外,与标准资本结构套利相比,新策略的收益与市场收益的相关性更低。主题:衍生品、金融危机和金融市场历史关键发现•我们介绍了三种新的资本结构套利策略。•新的交易策略结合了股票和信贷市场的价格发现信号。•在2007-2008年金融危机期间,我们引入的交易策略优于标准资本结构套利。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Alternative Investments
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