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Parallel Worlds? The Partisan Effects of COVID-19 on Real Estate 平行世界?COVID-19 对房地产的党派影响
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00285-2
Christopher Azevedo, David Johnson

Differences in how Republicans and Democrats responded to COVID-19 resulted in differences in the functioning of housing markets. Democrats adjusted behavior more than Republicans in response to the pandemic. Democrats engaged in more social distancing, were less likely to have people into their homes, and were less willing to visit strangers’ homes. This resulted in supply effects that caused higher housing prices, fewer listings, and fewer days on the market for counties with lower support for former president Donald Trump in the 2020 election. We find no impact of state-imposed shutdowns or population density when political partisanship is accounted for.

共和党人和民主党人对 COVID-19 的不同反应导致了住房市场功能的差异。与共和党人相比,民主党人在应对大流行病时更多地调整了自己的行为。民主党人更多地疏远社会关系,更少邀请他人到家中做客,也不太愿意到陌生人家中做客。这导致了供应效应,使 2020 年大选中前总统唐纳德-特朗普支持率较低的县房价上涨、挂牌房源减少、上市天数减少。在考虑政治党派因素后,我们发现州政府实施的停摆或人口密度没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Much Ado about Nothing? Counterterrorist Legislation has Few Effects 无事生非?反恐立法收效甚微
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00279-0
Christian Bjørnskov, Stefan Voigt

The events of 9/11 not only caused anger and fear among citizens the world over, but also led to counterterrorist legislation (CTL) in many countries. This paper identifies the most important determinants of passing CTL and the effects of such legislation on the likelihood of future terrorist attacks and on civil liberties. We particularly focus on the interplay between constitutionalized emergency provisions and CTL. We find that constitutional emergency provisions seem unrelated to CTL. It is not newly passed CTL, which drives civil liberties down, but, rather, the terrorist attacks themselves and the immediate and unmediated government responses to them.

9/11 事件不仅引起了全世界公民的愤怒和恐惧,还导致许多国家制定了反恐立法 (CTL)。本文指出了通过 CTL 的最重要决定因素,以及此类立法对未来发生恐怖袭击的可能性和公民自由的影响。我们尤其关注宪法紧急状态条款与 CTL 之间的相互作用。我们发现,宪法中的紧急状态条款似乎与《反恐法》无关。导致公民自由下降的并不是新通过的《反恐法》,而是恐怖袭击本身以及政府对恐怖袭击做出的直接和无中介的反应。
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引用次数: 0
David Colander and Modern Economics 大卫-科兰德与现代经济学
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00289-y
Ricard P. F. Holt

This article gives an appraisal of the work of David Colander. His economic focus and the problems he pursued made him a different economist. Colander was less interested in theory and more concerned with policy and applied economics since he saw most economists doing applied policy and teaching. What limited the work and teaching of most economists was using a strict method of science when a different method that is more eclectic would be more appropriate. A crucial part of his work is viewing the economy and the economic profession as an adaptive complex system.

本文对戴维-柯兰德的工作进行了评价。他对经济的关注和他所研究的问题使他成为一位与众不同的经济学家。柯兰德对理论不那么感兴趣,而更关注政策和应用经济学,因为他看到大多数经济学家都在从事应用政策和教学工作。限制大多数经济学家工作和教学的是使用严格的科学方法,而另一种更为折衷的方法则更为合适。他的工作的一个重要部分是将经济和经济专业视为一个适应性复杂系统。
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引用次数: 0
U.S. Intervention and Coercion-Enabling Capital: Evidence from El Salvador 美国干预与胁迫-赋能资本:来自萨尔瓦多的证据
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00281-6
Abigail R. Hall, Miriam A. Reyes Sandoval, Karla Segovia, Nathan P. Goodman

Many governments transfer physical and human capital to other governments as military assistance with the goals of enhancing recipient’s governing capabilities and achieve foreign policy goals. These transfers, however, are also “coercion-enabling” as they lower the cost of engaging in predatory behavior, are associated with multiple principal-agent problems, and result in system effects. We provide a framework of coercion-enabling capital and suggest such transfers are likely to lead to predation in many cases. To illustrate these dynamics, we examine the case of U.S. transfers to El Salvador during the Cold War and the Salvadoran Civil War of 1979–1992.

许多国家政府将物质资本和人力资本作为军事援助转让给其他国家政府,目的是提高受援国的治理能力,实现外交政策目标。然而,这些转让也是 "胁迫使能 "的,因为它们降低了从事掠夺性行为的成本,与多重委托代理问题相关联,并导致系统效应。我们提供了一个 "胁迫促成资本 "的框架,并指出在许多情况下,这种转移可能会导致掠夺行为。为了说明这些动态变化,我们研究了冷战期间和 1979-1992 年萨尔瓦多内战期间美国向萨尔瓦多转移资金的案例。
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引用次数: 0
AI and Warfare: A Rational Choice Approach 人工智能与战争:理性选择方法
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00280-7
Atin Basuchoudhary

Artificial intelligence has been a hot topic in recent years, particularly as it relates to warfare and military operations. While rational choice approaches have been widely used to understand the causes of war, there is little literature on using the rational choice methodology to investigate the role of AI in warfare systematically. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring how rational choice models can inform our understanding of the power and limitations of AI in warfare. This theoretical approach suggests (a) an increase in the demand for moral judgment due to a reduction in the price of AI and (b) that without a human in the AI decision-making loop, peace is impossible; the very nature of AI rules out peace through mutually assured destruction.

近年来,人工智能一直是一个热门话题,尤其是当它与战争和军事行动相关时。虽然理性选择方法已被广泛用于理解战争的起因,但很少有文献使用理性选择方法来系统地研究人工智能在战争中的作用。本文旨在填补这一空白,探讨理性选择模型如何帮助我们理解人工智能在战争中的威力和局限性。这种理论方法表明:(a) 由于人工智能价格的降低,对道德判断的需求会增加;(b) 如果人工智能决策环中没有人类,就不可能实现和平;人工智能的性质本身就排除了通过相互确保摧毁实现和平的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
State Capacity of Secret Surveillance 国家秘密监视能力
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00278-1
Thomas K. Duncan, Nathan P. Gooodman

The state capacity-civil society tradeoff model tends to treat the “state” and “civil society” as separate entities who move to constrain one another. However, this modeling technique leaves out the nuances of individual action within a collective setting by treating each as a relative black box. This article explores this balance in the context of the surveillance state that has arisen in the 20th and 21st century. As state capacity in surveillance increases it better allows the state to respond to threats to citizens from citizens. However, the increased capacity also lessens the ability of societal pressure to check authoritarian advances even in a nation with a thriving civil society presence.

国家能力-公民社会权衡模型倾向于将 "国家 "和 "公民社会 "视为相互制约的独立实体。然而,这种建模技术将各自视为相对黑箱,从而忽略了集体环境中个人行动的细微差别。本文以 20 世纪和 21 世纪出现的监控国家为背景,探讨了这种平衡。随着国家监控能力的增强,国家能够更好地应对来自公民的威胁。然而,监控能力的增强也削弱了社会压力遏制专制进步的能力,即使在公民社会蓬勃发展的国家也是如此。
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引用次数: 0
Demography, Human Capital Investment, and Lifetime Earnings for Women and Men 女性和男性的人口结构、人力资本投资和终生收入
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00273-6
Joyce Jacobsen, Melanie Khamis, Mutlu Yuksel

Can the demographic trends of increased life expectancy and decreasing birth rates, along with the labor market patterns of returns to human capital investment and changes in real hourly earnings, account for changes in women’s and men’s lifetime earnings? Using a vector error correction model to analyze annual US CPS data from 1964 to 2019, we find patterns linking these factors and demonstrating that they have significant roles to women's lifetime earnings but not to men's. These findings are consistent with the reduced gender earning gap having occurred mainly due to women’s responses to changing demographic and socioeconomic factors.

预期寿命延长和出生率下降的人口趋势,以及人力资本投资回报和实际时薪变化的劳动力市场模式,能否解释女性和男性终生收入的变化?利用向量误差修正模型分析美国 1964 年至 2019 年的年度 CPS 数据,我们发现了这些因素之间的关联模式,并证明它们对女性的终生收入有重要作用,但对男性的终生收入没有作用。这些发现表明,性别收入差距的缩小主要是由于妇女对不断变化的人口和社会经济因素做出了反应。
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引用次数: 0
Why Don’t You Leave? A Household Bargaining Model with a Household Preference of Addiction 你为什么不离开?带有家庭成瘾偏好的家庭讨价还价模型
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00274-5
Teresa Perry

This paper introduces a household model of addiction that focuses on how a breakdown point, derived from non-cooperative and collective model outcomes, diverges with variations in the spousal preference for household addiction (PHA). The model reveals that in households with different PHAs between the husband and wife, the spouse with the negative PHA will garner higher utility from the collective outcome. When a spouse has a negative PHA, an increase in their relative decision power will decrease the consumption of the addictive good for the other partner. The model highlights a few reasons why people stay in addiction-affected households.

本文介绍了一种家庭成瘾模型,重点研究了从非合作和集体模型结果中得出的崩溃点如何随着配偶对家庭成瘾偏好(PHA)的变化而变化。该模型显示,在夫妻双方 PHA 不同的家庭中,PHA 为负值的一方将从集体结果中获得更高的效用。当配偶一方的 PHA 为负数时,其相对决策权的增加将减少另一方对成瘾物品的消费。该模型强调了人们留在受成瘾影响的家庭中的几个原因。
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引用次数: 0
On the Incentive Structure of Tournaments: Evidence from the National Basketball Association’s Draft Lottery 关于锦标赛的激励结构:美国篮球协会选秀抽签的证据
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00272-7
Martin B. Schmidt

Tournament theory analyzes labor market outcomes where rewards are distributed on the basis of relative rank. An important factor in these outcomes is the likely return to additional effort. Using National Basketball Association game event data across two seasons, we estimate each team’s game player portfolio and find that teams who were in contention to win the draft lottery reduce their portfolio’s return differential during the 2017–2018 season but not for the 2018–2019 season. We attribute the change to the reduction in the probability of obtaining a higher pick for the 2019 draft.

锦标赛理论分析了根据相对排名分配奖励的劳动力市场结果。影响这些结果的一个重要因素是额外努力的可能回报。我们利用全美篮球协会两个赛季的比赛事件数据,估算了每支球队的比赛球员组合,发现有希望赢得选秀抽签的球队在 2017-2018 赛季减少了其组合的回报差异,但在 2018-2019 赛季却没有。我们将这一变化归因于在 2019 年选秀大会上获得更高选秀权的概率降低。
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引用次数: 0
Hostile Sexism and the 2016 Presidential Election 敌意性别歧视与 2016 年总统大选
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-024-00269-2
Ann L. Owen, Andrew Wei

We use Google Trends data to identify hostile sexism and find that sexism negatively predicts Clinton’s vote share in the 2016 general election and is associated with lower voter turnout among those more likely to vote for a Democrat. Although we find no evidence that hostile sexism was more prevalent in states in which Trump held more than 10 pre-election rallies, we find that sexism had a larger impact on votes in these areas. This shows that the marginal effect of sexism was not uniform across the country and links the differing magnitudes of the effect to Trump rallies.

我们利用谷歌趋势数据来识别敌意性别歧视,发现性别歧视对克林顿在 2016 年大选中的得票率有负面预测作用,并与那些更有可能投票给民主党人的选民投票率较低有关。虽然我们没有发现证据表明,在特朗普举行了 10 次以上选前集会的州,敌意性别歧视更为普遍,但我们发现性别歧视对这些地区的选票影响更大。这表明性别歧视的边际效应在全国范围内并不一致,并将效应的不同程度与特朗普的集会联系起来。
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Eastern Economic Journal
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