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Identifying the effects of large catastrophic shocks on the distribution of births using a combination of Benford's law and the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM). 结合本福德定律和矢量误差修正模型(VECM),确定大型灾难性冲击对出生分布的影响。
IF 0.9 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2025.2465547
Bogdan-Vasile Ileanu

This study examines the case of Romanian births, jointly distributed by age groups of mother and father, covering the period 1958-2022, under the potential influence of significant disruptors. Demographic shocks like armed conflicts, epidemics, floods, or slave trade are already present in the literature. Therefore, our study searches for the effects of World War II, the 1966 Anti-abortion Decree and COVID-19 shocks on birth distribution. Other legislative and political changes are not marginalized. Applying First Digit Law of Benford we search for anomalies in birth data. Then, following a vector-autoregressive method, we search for a long-term relation between fertility rate and anomaly in birth distribution. We also try to link disruptors and their potential effects as well. We found a statistically significant long term relation between fertility rate and birth distribution by age of parents. We confirm World War II as a major shock, and our results suggest adding the 1966 Anti-abortion Decree to the list of catastrophic events. The current work also reveals a time lag of 15 years between shock and its effects and a persistence of 15 to 20 years. COVID-19 does not impact (yet) the birth distribution by age of parents.

本研究考察了罗马尼亚在重大干扰因素的潜在影响下,按母亲和父亲年龄组共同分配的1958-2022年期间的出生情况。像武装冲突、流行病、洪水或奴隶贸易这样的人口冲击已经出现在文献中。因此,我们的研究寻找第二次世界大战、1966年反堕胎法令和COVID-19冲击对出生分布的影响。其他立法和政治变革也没有被边缘化。应用本福德第一位数定律,寻找出生数据中的异常现象。然后,根据向量自回归方法,我们寻找生育率与出生分布异常之间的长期关系。我们也试图将干扰因素和它们的潜在影响联系起来。我们发现,生育率与父母年龄的出生分布之间存在统计学上显著的长期关系。我们确认第二次世界大战是一个主要的冲击,我们的结果表明,将1966年的反堕胎法令添加到灾难性事件的列表中。目前的研究还表明,休克和其影响之间存在15年的时间滞后,并持续15至20年。COVID-19(尚未)影响按父母年龄划分的出生分布。
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引用次数: 0
Which factor, food literacy or health promotion literacy, predicts women's healthy eating habits better? Results of a study in western Iran. 食品知识和健康宣传知识哪个更能预测妇女的健康饮食习惯?伊朗西部的一项研究结果。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2397346
Serajeddin Mahmoudiani

The objective of this study was to examine the individual contributions of food literacy and health promotion literacy components to healthy eating habits. By exploring these relationships, we aim to enhance our understanding of the factors that shape individuals' dietary choices and behaviors. In 2022, a cross-sectional study was conducted using survey methodology. The study sample was selected using the cluster sampling method, and data was collected using a standardized questionnaire among women aged 18 and older in Kermanshah city in western Iran. The findings of the study revealed that 26.4% of women demonstrated high levels of food knowledge, 44.4% exhibited high food skills, and 28.4% displayed high resilience. Additionally, 38.5% of participants demonstrated high health promotion literacy, while 47.9% exhibited high levels of healthy eating habits. Furthermore, the results indicated a significant relationship between the components of food literacy and healthy eating habits. Notably, an increase in health promotion literacy was found to positively correlate with improved healthy eating habits. Given that a significant proportion of women in the study exhibited low levels of food knowledge, it becomes crucial to prioritize efforts to enhance women's understanding of nutrition and food-related information.

本研究的目的是探讨食品素养和健康促进素养对健康饮食习惯的个人贡献。通过探讨这些关系,我们希望加深对影响个人饮食选择和行为的因素的了解。2022 年,我们采用调查方法开展了一项横断面研究。研究样本采用聚类抽样法选出,并使用标准化问卷对伊朗西部克尔曼沙阿市 18 岁及以上女性进行数据收集。研究结果显示,26.4% 的妇女表现出较高的食品知识水平,44.4% 的妇女表现出较高的食品技能,28.4% 的妇女表现出较高的适应能力。此外,38.5% 的参与者表现出较高的健康促进素养,47.9% 的参与者表现出较高的健康饮食习惯。此外,研究结果表明,食物素养与健康饮食习惯之间存在重要关系。值得注意的是,健康促进素养的提高与健康饮食习惯的改善呈正相关。鉴于研究中相当一部分妇女的食品知识水平较低,因此必须优先努力提高妇女对营养和食品相关信息的了解。
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引用次数: 0
Inter-cohort shifts in chronic disease, dementia, and mortality. 慢性病、痴呆症和死亡率的队列间变化。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2419518
Patrick O'Keefe, Graciela Muniz-Terrera, Stacey Voll, Frank D Mann, Sean Clouston, Linda Wanström, Joseph L Rodgers, Scott Hofer

Previous work using U.S. data has identified generational shifts, reflected in inter-cohort changes, in the incidence and prevalence of diseases in older ages. This study extends previous findings to England by examining similar results in memory complaints, heart conditions, stroke, diabetes, lung disease, and cancer using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We fit Cox proportional hazard models to the first eight waves (2002-2016) of the ELSA sample (n = 18,528). In addition to exploring shifts in disease incidence we also examine shifts in disease mortality. Both general and sex-related differences are examined. Disease incidence has increased for later-born cohorts in England, replicating similar trends in the U.S. Not all diseases showed differences between men and women, but when differences were identified, women had lower risks for disease. In comparison to the U.S. sample, disease trends in England are more negative (i.e. accelerated failure times) for more recently born cohorts. These results showing increasing incidence of disease among the later-born cohorts suggest the possibility of increased disease burden in coming years.

以前利用美国数据进行的研究发现,在老年疾病的发病率和流行率方面,存在着反映在队列间变化上的代际变化。本研究利用英国老龄化纵向研究(ELSA)的数据,对记忆力衰退、心脏病、中风、糖尿病、肺病和癌症的类似结果进行了研究,从而将之前的研究结果推广到了英国。我们对 ELSA 样本(n = 18528)的前八波(2002-2016 年)进行了 Cox 比例危险模型拟合。除了探讨疾病发病率的变化,我们还研究了疾病死亡率的变化。我们既研究了一般差异,也研究了与性别相关的差异。并非所有疾病都显示出男女之间的差异,但当差异被发现时,女性的患病风险较低。与美国样本相比,英格兰出生较晚的人群的疾病趋势更为消极(即失败时间加快)。这些结果表明,在较晚出生的人群中,疾病发病率不断上升,这表明未来几年疾病负担可能会加重。
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引用次数: 0
Demography leads to more conservative European societies. 人口结构导致欧洲社会更加保守。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2419075
Martin Fieder, Susanne Huber

Using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (a total of 66,188 participants from 15 European countries) and the European Gender and Generation Survey (a total of 121,248 participants from 12 countries), we investigated i) whether differences in political attitudes and attitudes toward family values (i.e. attitudes toward homosexual couples, attitudes toward female reproduction) are associated with differences in the average number of children, and ii) whether such an association between fertility and attitudes affects the population share of these attitudes in subsequent generations. We found that in most of the countries analyzed, right-wing (conservative) individuals have, on average, more children and grandchildren than left-wing (liberal) individuals. We also found that the proportion of right-wing individuals increases from generation to generation. Since political attitudes are presumably evolved traits that are socially and genetically transmitted from one generation to the next, these findings may suggest that demographic differences can lead to shifts in prevailing political attitudes. Thus, to some extent, demography may explain longer-term political trends.

我们利用欧洲健康、老龄和退休调查(共有来自 15 个欧洲国家的 66,188 名参与者)和欧洲性别与世代调查(共有来自 12 个国家的 121,248 名参与者),调查了 i) 政治态度和家庭价值观态度(即对同性恋伴侣的态度、对女性生育的态度)的差异是否与平均子女数量的差异有关,以及 ii) 生育率与态度之间的这种关联是否会影响这些态度在后代中的人口比例。我们发现,在所分析的大多数国家中,右翼(保守派)人士平均比左翼(自由派)人士拥有更多的子女和孙辈。我们还发现,右翼分子所占的比例一代比一代高。由于政治态度可能是通过社会和基因代代相传的进化特征,这些发现可能表明,人口结构的差异会导致主流政治态度的转变。因此,在某种程度上,人口统计学可以解释长期的政治趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Reasons for the continued decline in fertility intentions: explanations from overtime work. 生育意愿持续下降的原因:来自加班的解释。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850
Jiawei Zhao, Yuxuan Li, Wenqi Li

China's fertility rate continues to decline despite government fertility policies. This study aims to explore the micro-level causes of China's declining fertility rate by examining the impact of changes in Chinese work patterns in recent years, particularly the prevalence of overtime work, on fertility intentions. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study examines the impact of overtime work on fertility intentions at both the provincial and urban levels. It also examines the specific mechanisms through which different types of overtime (e.g. weekend overtime, night shifts, on-call duty) affect fertility intentions. The results show that overtime work significantly inhibits fertility intentions, a trend that is consistent at both provincial and urban levels. Weekend overtime, night shifts, and on-call duties exhibit particularly pronounced inhibitory effects on fertility intentions. However, not all work arrangements negatively impact fertility intentions. Reasonable work schedules may even foster them. The research implies the need for policy measures to mitigate the negative effects of overtime work on fertility intentions.

尽管政府出台了生育政策,但中国的生育率仍在持续下降。本研究旨在通过考察近年来中国工作模式的变化,特别是加班的普遍性对生育意愿的影响,探讨中国生育率下降的微观原因。本研究利用中国家庭面板研究(CFPS)的数据,从省级和城市两个层面考察了加班对生育意愿的影响。研究还探讨了不同类型加班(如周末加班、夜班、值班)影响生育意愿的具体机制。结果表明,加班会明显抑制生育意愿,这一趋势在省和城市层面都是一致的。周末加班、夜班和值班对生育意愿的抑制作用尤为明显。然而,并非所有的工作安排都会对生育意愿产生负面影响。合理的工作安排甚至会促进生育意愿。研究表明,有必要采取政策措施来减轻加班对生育意愿的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Demographic evolution and natural increase projection of the Yanomami indigenous population in Brazil. 巴西雅诺马米土著人口的人口演变和自然增长预测。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2370263
Paulo Ricardo Martins-Filho, Francisco Helmer Almeida Santos, Analany Pereira Dias Araújo, Alexandre Raphael Deitos, Carlos Eduardo Palhares Machado, Shirley Verônica Melo Almeida Lima, Bianca Marques Santiago

The Yanomami population, residing in Brazil's largest indigenous reserve in the Amazon Rainforest, face significant health challenges exacerbated by external threats such as infectious diseases, malnutrition, and mercury contamination from illegal mining. These issues, coupled with inadequate healthcare provision, have led to an alarming increase in mortality rates and potentially threaten the long-term survival of the Yanomami community. This ecological study utilized demographic data from the Special Secretariat of Indigenous Health to explore the demographic evolution and natural increase of the Yanomami Indigenous population in Brazil from 2003 to 2022. Employing population pyramids, crude rates of natural increase, the Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis, and linear regression modeling, the study analyzed vital statistics to forecast demographic trends, with analysis conducted using the R statistical software. Our findings showed a substantial growth of the Yanomami population, yet with a decreasing natural increase rate (τ = -0.33; p = 0.047), suggesting a shift toward population stagnation or decline within the next century. These results call for urgent, coordinated actions to address the complex demographic trends and health challenges faced by Yanomami Indigenous people, ensuring their demographic sustainability and the preservation of their traditional ways of life amidst ongoing environmental and health crises.

雅诺马米人居住在巴西亚马逊雨林中最大的土著保护区,他们面临着巨大的健康挑战,而传染病、营养不良和非法采矿造成的汞污染等外部威胁又加剧了这一挑战。这些问题,再加上医疗保健服务不足,导致死亡率惊人地上升,并可能威胁到雅诺马米社区的长期生存。这项生态研究利用土著健康特别秘书处提供的人口数据,探讨了 2003 年至 2022 年巴西雅诺马米土著人口的人口演变和自然增长情况。研究采用了人口金字塔、粗自然增长率、Mann-Kendall 趋势分析测试和线性回归模型,通过分析生命统计数据来预测人口趋势,并使用 R 统计软件进行分析。我们的研究结果表明,雅诺马米族人口大幅增长,但自然增长率却在下降(τ = -0.33;p = 0.047),这表明下个世纪人口将出现停滞或下降。这些结果呼吁采取紧急、协调的行动,应对雅诺马米土著人面临的复杂人口趋势和健康挑战,确保其人口的可持续性,并在持续的环境和健康危机中保护其传统的生活方式。
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引用次数: 0
Height and cognitive assessments in a cohort of US schoolchildren, kindergarten through fifth grade. 一组美国学龄儿童(幼儿园至五年级)的身高和认知评估。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2358906
Jason Murasko

An oft-repeated finding in child development research is that height and cognitive ability are positively related. Much of this work is limited in its ability to track height and cognitive development over time, with key constraints being the availability of longitudinal data and measures of ability that are comparable over time. This study evaluates the associations between height and assessments of reading, math, and science in a representative sample of US schoolchildren followed from kindergarten through fifth grade. Associations between height and assessment scores at each grade level, and height-growth and changes in scores over grade levels, are examined. The results suggest modest associations between concurrent height and assessment scores at each grade level that are robust to socioeconomic and school controls. There is limited association between height-growth and assessment outcomes, which is shown only for females. There is also little indication that height or height-growth is associated with improvements in scores. The findings suggest a modest association between height and cognitive ability in contemporary US schoolchildren, being attributed mostly to growth before kindergarten. The findings are consistent with the view that social and biological forces in early-life facilitate both physical and cognitive development.

儿童发展研究中经常重复的一个发现是,身高与认知能力呈正相关。这项研究在长期跟踪身高和认知能力发展方面的能力有限,主要限制因素是缺乏纵向数据和具有时间可比性的能力测量方法。本研究以具有代表性的美国学龄儿童为样本,评估了从幼儿园到五年级期间身高与阅读、数学和科学评估之间的关系。研究考察了身高与各年级评估分数之间的关系,以及身高增长与各年级分数变化之间的关系。结果表明,同时身高与各年级的测评分数之间的关联不大,但与社会经济和学校控制因素的关系却很稳固。身高增长与评估结果之间的关联有限,这只体现在女性身上。此外,几乎没有迹象表明身高或身高增长与分数的提高有关。研究结果表明,在当代美国学童中,身高与认知能力之间的关联不大,这主要归因于幼儿园前的身高增长。研究结果与生命早期的社会和生物力量促进身体和认知发展的观点一致。
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引用次数: 0
Does neighborhood matter? An analysis of HIV prevalence in Sub-Saharan African countries. 邻里关系重要吗?对撒哈拉以南非洲国家艾滋病毒感染率的分析。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2384995
Anna Maria Parroco, Micaela Arcaio, Daria Mendola

Over two-thirds of the population living with HIV were concentrated in Eastern, Southern, Western, and Central Africa in 2021. This paper employs data from the Demographic and Health Survey to assess the relationship between HIV prevalence and its socio-economic and demographic drivers at the neighborhood (macro-cluster) level. Additionally, the study examines the existence of differences in such relationships among countries. The results of the fractional logistic regression models highlight that highly educated neighborhoods are less likely to be affected by HIV. A greater average number of children, potentially due to programs that promote access to preventive antenatal care and prevention, is associated with a lower likelihood of residents living with HIV. Notably, HIV testing coverage is prevalent in neighborhoods with a high prevalence of HIV. It is also evident that there are notable differences between countries, which demonstrate national context plays a crucial role in the association between education, number of children, testing coverage, and HIV prevalences.

2021 年,超过三分之二的艾滋病毒感染者集中在非洲东部、南部、西部和中部。本文利用人口与健康调查的数据,在邻里(宏观集群)层面评估艾滋病毒感染率与其社会经济和人口驱动因素之间的关系。此外,本研究还探讨了各国之间此类关系的差异。分数逻辑回归模型的结果表明,教育程度高的社区受艾滋病毒影响的可能性较小。平均子女数较多的居民感染艾滋病毒的可能性较低,这可能与促进获得预防性产前护理和预防的计划有关。值得注意的是,在艾滋病毒感染率较高的社区,艾滋病毒检测的覆盖率很高。同样明显的是,不同国家之间存在明显差异,这表明国情在教育、儿童数量、检测覆盖率和艾滋病毒感染率之间的关联中起着至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Adverse childhood experiences, symptoms of anxiety and depression in adulthood: Mediation role of life history strategy. 童年的不良经历与成年后的焦虑和抑郁症状:生活史策略的调解作用。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2359600
Nazila Amani, Gholamreza Dehshiri

Life history theory has considered the effects of childhood experiences. The present study aimed to investigate the mediating role of life history strategy and the moderating role of gender in the relationship between childhood experiences and symptoms of anxiety and depression in adulthood. In this study, 248 Iranians (including 162 females and 86 males) between 18 and 53 voluntarily participated and responded to all online questionnaires regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. The data were analyzed with SPSS and macro PROCESS. The mediation analysis results demonstrated that the life history strategy mediates the relationship between childhood experiences and symptoms of anxiety and depression. The moderated mediation analysis revealed that there were no gender differences in the moderated mediation. The results have highlighted the importance of life history strategies in the association between childhood experiences and depression and anxiety symptoms and can be considered in the design of interventions based on the prevention of people's vulnerability to mental disorders.

生活史理论考虑了童年经历的影响。本研究旨在探讨在童年经历与成年后焦虑和抑郁症状之间的关系中,生活史策略的中介作用和性别的调节作用。在本研究中,248 名 18 至 53 岁的伊朗人(包括 162 名女性和 86 名男性)自愿参与并回答了有关 COVID-19 大流行病的所有在线问卷。数据采用 SPSS 和宏 PROCESS 进行分析。中介分析结果表明,生活史策略对童年经历与焦虑和抑郁症状之间的关系起中介作用。调节性中介分析显示,在调节性中介中不存在性别差异。研究结果凸显了生活史策略在童年经历与抑郁症和焦虑症状之间关系中的重要性,可在设计干预措施时加以考虑,以预防人们易患精神疾病。
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引用次数: 0
The influence of parental occupational status on under-five mortality in Ethiopia. 埃塞俄比亚父母职业状况对五岁以下儿童死亡率的影响。
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2376568
Endrias Liranso, Fang Yang

Few studies have examined the mediators of the association between parental occupational status and under-five mortality risk in Ethiopia. We examine the association between parental occupational status and under-five mortality risk in Ethiopia and the role of two mediating variables, antenatal care visits and delivery by a health professional, in this relationship. Using birth data from the nationally representative 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey, the study finds that parental occupation, antenatal care visits, and delivery by a health professional are associated with under-five mortality risk. The study also finds that after controlling for mediating variables, parents engaged in professional, agricultural, and manual labor still have lower odds of under-five mortality risk than children of non-working parents. Future research should focus on the pathway from parental employment to child mortality risk, not through access to antenatal care and delivery by health professionals.

在埃塞俄比亚,很少有研究探讨父母职业状况与五岁以下儿童死亡风险之间关系的中介因素。我们研究了埃塞俄比亚父母职业状况与五岁以下儿童死亡风险之间的关系,以及产前检查和由卫生专业人员接生这两个中介变量在这一关系中的作用。通过使用具有全国代表性的 2016 年埃塞俄比亚人口与健康调查的出生数据,研究发现,父母职业、产前护理就诊和由卫生专业人员接生与五岁以下儿童死亡风险有关。研究还发现,在控制了中介变量后,从事专业、农业和体力劳动的父母的五岁以下儿童死亡风险几率仍低于不工作父母的子女。未来的研究应重点关注从父母就业到儿童死亡风险的途径,而不是通过获得产前护理和由保健专业人员接生的途径。
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引用次数: 0
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