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Editor’s Letter 编辑的信
IF 0.6 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.32.3.001
Brian R. Bruce
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引用次数: 0
Lies, Damn Lies, and Benchmarks: An Injunction for Trustees 谎言、该死的谎言和基准:受托人的障碍
IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.266
Richard M. Ennis
Most institutional investors, such as public pension funds and endowments, report their performance using biased benchmarks. The benchmarks are biased downwardly, meaning their returns tend to be less than a fair return for the market exposures and risk exhibited by the institutions’ portfolios. Significant samples of both fund types exhibit benchmark bias in the range of 1.4 to 1.7 percentage points per year. This bias enables a sizable majority of both types of funds to report outperforming their chosen benchmarks when, in fact, most underperform an appropriate passive-management benchmark by a wide margin. Benchmark bias masks serious agency problems in the management of institutional funds. For example, fund staff and consultants have strong incentives to justify complex, costly, multi-asset-class portfolios, for which they themselves are the benchmarkers. Trustees may feel they have no choice but to accept the benchmarking and reporting by staff and consultants, but this only perpetuates the problem. At the very least, investment trustees should step up and take control of benchmarking and performance reporting. For they are the ones charged with watching the watchmen.
大多数机构投资者,如公共养老基金和捐赠基金,使用有偏见的基准来报告他们的业绩。这些基准指数是向下倾斜的,这意味着它们的回报往往低于机构投资组合所显示的市场敞口和风险的公平回报。两种基金类型的重要样本显示,基准偏差在每年1.4至1.7个百分点之间。这种偏见使得这两种类型的基金中的绝大多数报告表现优于他们选择的基准,而实际上,大多数基金的表现远远落后于适当的被动管理基准。基准偏差掩盖了机构基金管理中严重的代理问题。例如,基金员工和顾问有强烈的动机为复杂、昂贵、多资产类别的投资组合辩护,而他们自己就是这些投资组合的基准。受托人可能觉得他们别无选择,只能接受工作人员和顾问的基准和报告,但这只会使问题长期存在。至少,投资受托人应该加强对基准和业绩报告的控制。因为他们是负责看守守望者的。
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引用次数: 0
Concentrated Holdings by Funds: Putting All Your Eggs in the Same Basket 基金集中持股:把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里
IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-22 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.265
D. Sherrill
Diversification is a fundamental principle for investors when forming a portfolio. When investing in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), purchasing a single fund comes with the benefit of indirectly holding a large number of securities; however, many funds are not as diversified as some may expect. This article documents the large concentration of portfolio holdings of many funds. The degree of concentration varies based on fund investment objective, size, and structure. High levels of concentration often are tied to managers making active bets on the portfolio weights of holdings. This concentration relates to higher idiosyncratic risk (risk originating from factors tied to a specific security or small group of assets) and, for sector and style funds, greater market risk exposure. Even though many funds make large bets on the same stocks and have overlapping holdings, a strategy of investing in multiple funds with a similar objective can often lead to much lower portfolio concentration and reduces idiosyncratic risk.
多元化是投资者组建投资组合的基本原则。在投资共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)时,购买一只基金会带来间接持有大量证券的好处;然而,许多基金并不像一些人预期的那样多元化。这篇文章记录了许多基金的投资组合持有量的巨大集中。集中程度因基金投资目标、规模和结构而异。高度集中往往与经理人对所持资产的投资组合权重进行积极押注有关。这种集中性与更高的特殊风险(源于与特定证券或一小群资产相关的因素的风险)有关,对于行业和风格的基金来说,与更大的市场风险敞口有关。尽管许多基金在同一只股票上下了大赌注,并且持有的股票重叠,但投资于目标相似的多只基金的策略往往会降低投资组合的集中度,并降低特殊风险。
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引用次数: 0
Time to Retire: The 4% Withdrawal Rule 退休时间:4%提款规则
IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.264
Brown Rob
The so-called “4% rule” is perhaps the single most commonly referenced retirement withdrawal approach. Most discussion of this rule centers on the appropriate percentage to use, 4%, 3%, or 5%. My objective is to suggest a superior retirement rule. Superior in the sense that it will deliver a higher standard of living during one’s retirement years. I start with the observation that past retirement withdrawal analysis suffers from two key deficiencies, that is, a reliance on past US stock and bond market returns (ex-post cherry picking the best performing market) and an assumption that asset class returns can be modeled with independent and identically distributed random variables, serving to mask their important time series properties. This article repairs these two deficiencies. A new retirement distribution rule is proposed. One that distributes/liquidates an ever-increasing proportion of the retiree’s then-current portfolio as they age, but subject to a minimum monthly distribution expressed in dollar terms. This approach provides simplicity, ease of execution, and transparency. It also results in a standard of living for the retiree as expressed by the median and average monthly distributions that are 101.3% and 174.2%, respectively, above those delivered by the best possible constant-dollar withdrawal rule. This pleasing result occurs for two primary reasons. First, this new rule realizes significant benefit from selling more/less shares when markets are high/low (which is the exact opposite of what transpires with all constant-dollar rules). Or to use other words, it delivers a measurably higher IRR despite utilizing an identical asset mix. Second, the new rule effectively consumes the retiree’s entire portfolio over the retirement life, leaving no unused residual balance (again, the exact opposite of all constant-dollar rules).
所谓的“4%规则”可能是最常见的退休提款方法。关于这条规则的大多数讨论都集中在使用的适当百分比上,4%、3%或5%。我的目标是提出一个优越的退休规则。优越之处在于它将在退休期间提供更高的生活水平。我首先观察到,过去的退休退出分析存在两个关键缺陷,即依赖于过去的美国股票和债券市场回报(在樱桃之后选择表现最好的市场),以及假设资产类别回报可以用独立和同分布的随机变量建模,以掩盖其重要的时间序列特性。这篇文章弥补了这两个不足。提出了一种新的退休分配规则。随着退休人员年龄的增长,分配/清算其当前投资组合中不断增加的比例,但须遵守以美元表示的最低月度分配。这种方法提供了简单、易于执行和透明性。它还导致退休人员的生活水平,如中位数和平均月分配所示,分别为101.3%和174.2%,高于最佳恒定美元提款规则所提供的水平。出现这种令人愉快的结果主要有两个原因。首先,这一新规则实现了在市场高/低时出售更多/更少股票的显著好处(这与所有不变美元规则完全相反)。换句话说,尽管使用了相同的资产组合,但它提供了明显更高的内部收益率。其次,新规则在退休期间有效地消耗了退休人员的整个投资组合,没有留下未使用的剩余余额(同样,与所有不变美元规则完全相反)。
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引用次数: 0
A Stablecoin Ecosystem Primer 稳定币生态系统入门
IF 0.6 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.263
Marco Manoppo
This article highlights growth and public initiatives related to digital assets, blockchain, and distributed ledger technologies (DLT) in the stablecoin sector. Stablecoins have been a rapidly growing part of the digital asset ecosystem categorized into three subsectors in the DAR Industry Taxonomy Stable & Fiat Backed sector: Fiat Collateralized Stablecoins, Crypto Collateralized Stablecoins, and Algorithmic Non-Collateralized Stablecoins.
本文重点介绍了稳定币行业与数字资产、区块链和分布式账本技术(DLT)相关的增长和公共举措。稳定币一直是数字资产生态系统中快速增长的一部分,在DAR行业分类稳定和菲亚特支持行业中分为三个子部门:菲亚特抵押稳定币、加密抵押稳定币和算法非抵押稳定币。
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引用次数: 0
Tax-Loss Harvesting in Crypto: A Significant and Underexplored Opportunity for Financial Advisors 加密货币的税收损失收获:金融顾问的一个重要而未被充分开发的机会
IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-19 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.262
Matt Hougan, David Lawant, Gayatri Choudhury
Taxes can be a significant drag on investor returns. As a result, minimizing the impact of taxes on total returns has become a staple in the professional investment community and an important way in which financial advisers can add value for clients. One of the most common ways in which investors can achieve tax alpha is through tax-loss harvesting (TLH), which entails selling securities at a loss to offset capital gains on other securities sold at a profit. This article starts with a high-level introduction to tax-loss harvesting and then moves on to show how the return and volatility profile of crypto assets makes them, at least historically, uniquely well-positioned to benefit from TLH strategies.
税收可能会严重拖累投资者的回报。因此,将税收对总回报的影响降至最低,已成为专业投资界的主要内容,也是财务顾问为客户增值的重要方式。投资者实现税收阿尔法的最常见方式之一是通过税收损失收获(TLH),这需要以亏损的方式出售证券,以抵消以盈利方式出售其他证券的资本收益。本文首先对税收损失收获进行了高层次的介绍,然后继续展示了加密资产的回报和波动性如何使它们(至少从历史上看)独特地从TLH策略中受益。
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引用次数: 0
Stock Market Assessment: Invest Now or Later 股票市场评估:现在投资还是以后投资
IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.261
Samveg A. Patel
Investors face a million-dollar question on a daily basis, is it a right time to invest in stock market, or is the stock market under, over or fairly valued? This article answers this much-awaited question by proposing the stock market assessment indicator. It uses market level fundamental ratios like Price to Earnings (PE), Price to Book (PB), and Dividend Yield (DY) ratios to derive PE, PB, and DY scores based on their historical mean and standard deviation values. This article also derives Market Assessment Score (MAS) as an equal-weighted average of PE, PB, and DY scores. The values of all scores ranges from 0 to 100, based on that, the article classifies the current market as under-, over- or fairly-valued. The findings of this article have implications for the fund manager, portfolio manager and, at large, all investors while making a new investment or rebalancing an existing portfolio.
投资者每天都面临着一个价值百万美元的问题,现在是投资股市的合适时机,还是股市估值过低、过高或公允?本文通过提出股票市场评估指标来回答人们期待已久的问题。它使用市场层面的基本比率,如市盈率(PE)、账面价格(PB)和股息收益率(DY),根据历史平均值和标准差值得出PE、PB和DY得分。本文还推导了市场评估分数(MAS),即PE、PB和DY分数的相等加权平均值。所有分数的值都在0到100之间,基于此,文章将当前市场分为低估值、高估值或公允值。这篇文章的发现对基金经理、投资组合经理以及所有投资者在进行新投资或重新平衡现有投资组合时都有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring Cryptocurrencies: The History, the Hype, and the Future 探索加密货币:历史、炒作和未来
IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.258
Ashley Oerth, D. Dowsett
We attempt to explain cryptocurrencies, their evolution and variety, and their potential place in portfolios. For many, cryptocurrency has become synonymous with Bitcoin, but there is a great variety of cryptocurrencies, all unified by distributed ledger technology—typically blockchain—whose mechanism, theoretical strengths, and practical weaknesses we describe. We also explore where blockchain can have applications beyond cryptocurrencies. In our view, cryptocurrencies are not intended to function only as private digital currencies. We explore them as investable assets that may be fit into portfolios, and evaluate several attempts at valuing them. We also analyze the correlation of cryptos with other asset classes, concluding that their severe drawdowns make cryptos far riskier than equities, and observing that as their market capitalization increases, major cryptos are expected to behave more in line with traditional risk assets. We distinguish cryptocurrencies from the technology that enables them and highlight the potentially transformative implications of so-called atomic settlement (the simultaneous, instantaneous transfer of assets) and how it may translate to assets more generally. Cryptos’ uncertain and rapidly evolving future includes the likelihood of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) issued by central banks as legal tender. We conclude by discussing exposure methods to cryptocurrencies and (in our view) their highly promising blockchain technology, from direct ownership to broader market approaches.
我们试图解释加密货币,它们的演变和多样性,以及它们在投资组合中的潜在地位。对许多人来说,加密货币已经成为比特币的代名词,但有各种各样的加密货币,它们都是由分布式账本技术统一的——通常是区块链——我们描述了其机制、理论优势和实践弱点。我们还探索了区块链在加密货币之外的应用。在我们看来,加密货币并非仅作为私人数字货币发挥作用。我们将其作为可投资资产进行探索,这些资产可能适合投资组合,并评估了对其进行估值的几次尝试。我们还分析了加密货币与其他资产类别的相关性,得出的结论是,它们的严重提款使加密货币的风险远高于股票,并观察到,随着其市值的增加,主要加密货币的行为预计将更符合传统风险资产。我们将加密货币与实现加密货币的技术区分开来,并强调所谓的原子结算(资产的同时、即时转移)的潜在变革意义,以及它如何更广泛地转化为资产。加密货币的不确定性和快速发展的未来包括央行作为法定货币发行的央行数字货币(CBDC)的可能性。最后,我们讨论了加密货币的暴露方法,以及(在我们看来)其极具前景的区块链技术,从直接所有权到更广泛的市场方法。
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引用次数: 0
Portfolio Optimization Techniques for Cryptocurrencies 加密货币的投资组合优化技术
IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.256
Samuel Gaskin, Rafay Kalim, Kelvin J. Wallace, David Islip, R. Kwon, J. Liew
This article addresses the shortcomings of the existing literature regarding cryptocurrency portfolio construction. First, we address the effectiveness of time-series models that capture stylized features. We perform a comparison study on various methods for estimating distributions for asset returns, including normal, historical, and GARCH models within a CVaR setting. The goal of this comparison is to determine the financial benefits of constructing portfolios based on estimated distributions that consider stylized features of crypto return series. Next, we create and compare various prediction models for cryptocurrencies and integrate them with mean-variance optimization to base performance on portfolio management metrics, such as Sharpe ratio and level of diversification, rather than statistical metrics like accuracy and R2 on which the literature solely focuses. We determine it is unclear which optimization approach (CVaR or Robust MVO) leads to better crypto portfolios, and so, to address this, we compare optimization procedures on out-of-sample data through a thorough cross-validation of hyperparameters for each technique. We then compare the resulting risk-optimal portfolios from each technique. The results show that a CVaR approach with a GARCH simulation and a decision tree prediction model with robust mean-variance optimization yield portfolios of similar risk. We also show that using statistical metrics to evaluate models may not always yield the best financial performance.
本文解决了关于加密货币投资组合构建的现有文献的缺点。首先,我们讨论了捕获程式化特征的时间序列模型的有效性。我们对估算资产收益分布的各种方法进行了比较研究,包括在CVaR设置下的正常、历史和GARCH模型。这种比较的目标是确定基于考虑加密收益序列风格化特征的估计分布构建投资组合的财务效益。接下来,我们创建并比较了加密货币的各种预测模型,并将其与均值方差优化相结合,以基于投资组合管理指标(如夏普比率和多样化水平)的性能,而不是文献仅关注的准确性和R2等统计指标。我们确定目前尚不清楚哪种优化方法(CVaR或鲁棒MVO)会带来更好的加密投资组合,因此,为了解决这个问题,我们通过对每种技术的超参数进行彻底的交叉验证,比较了样本外数据的优化程序。然后,我们比较从每种技术得到的风险最优投资组合。结果表明,基于GARCH模拟的CVaR方法和基于稳健均值方差优化的决策树预测模型具有相似风险的收益组合。我们还表明,使用统计指标来评估模型可能并不总是产生最佳的财务绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Checking the Box on the Efficiency of CME Bitcoin Futures Options 芝加哥商品交易所比特币期货期权效率的复选框
IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.3905/joi.2023.1.257
Eric Zhou
The adoption of new financial instruments is naturally met with skepticism and apprehension. Capital markets as we know them today possess the amazing capability to package any exposure into a digestible instrument for market participants to utilize. However, prudence requires us to verify that these instruments do not suffer from inefficiencies that may prove hazardous to investors. In this article, the authors verify the efficiency of CME Bitcoin Futures Options by testing boundary arbitrage, put-call parity arbitrage, and box spread arbitrage conditions. The results strongly suggest that no reasonable arbitrage opportunities exist and that CME Bitcoin Futures Options are well-suited for institutional scale investing. Hence, we believe their use by institutions to hedge, speculate, and/or facilitate transactions between decentralized markets (“DeFi”) and traditional markets (“TradFi”) will grow significantly in the next few years.
采用新的金融工具自然会遭到怀疑和担忧。正如我们今天所知,资本市场拥有惊人的能力,可以将任何风险敞口打包成一种易于消化的工具,供市场参与者使用。然而,谨慎要求我们核实这些工具不会出现可能对投资者造成危险的低效率。在本文中,作者通过测试边界套利、看跌期权平价套利和箱差套利条件来验证CME比特币期货期权的有效性。结果强烈表明,不存在合理的套利机会,CME比特币期货期权非常适合机构规模投资。因此,我们认为,在未来几年内,机构使用它们来对冲、投机和/或促进去中心化市场(“DeFi”)和传统市场(“TradFi”)之间的交易将显著增长。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Investing
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