Pub Date : 2023-11-13DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00356-y
Dang Thi Bich Hong, Tran Quang Vinh
{"title":"Statistical Models for Storm Genesis Simulations Considering Intensity Variations in the Eastern North Pacific","authors":"Dang Thi Bich Hong, Tran Quang Vinh","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00356-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00356-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"17 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136346388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-27DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00355-z
Essam Heggy, Mohamed Ramah, Abotalib Z. Abotalib
Abstract Increasing water and energy demands, hydroclimatic fluctuations, damming, and usage rights disputes present major challenges in managing transboundary rivers worldwide. Of particular interest is the Eastern Nile River Basin (ENRB), which is subject to broad debate over which modeling approach should be applied to resolve the disparities in transboundary water management among the river’s riparian nations, under increased upstream damming. Several studies have simulated the downstream High Aswan Dam (HAD) storage change during the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling under different hydrological conditions. However, their findings diverge regarding the impacts of GERD filling on HAD storage, especially when considering a specific, naturalized, historical 10-year period to represent the average flow condition used, as a benchmark for assessing potential downstream impacts. Our extended analysis of the Nile flow historical records demonstrates that considering a single historical 10-year period to simulate the downstream water budget, as performed in Wheeler et al. (Nat Commun 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x), widely communicated to policymakers as a robust proof that GERD filling will not generate a deficit at HAD under average flow conditions, is inconclusive as it strongly depend on the selection of the historical inflow period, due to the river high interannual flow variability. Our simulation results of 20 average/near average historical flow periods in Wheeler et al. (Nat Commun 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x)’s datasheet indicates that 60% of them generates a downstream water deficit ranging from 0.5 to 14.5 BCM under the same modeling conditions and filling policy. Therefore, considering the simulation results of multiple flow sequences is crucial for accurately reflecting the impact of the Nile’s high interannual flow variability on downstream water deficit assessments, thereby settling the disparities in transboundary water management forecasts for the impacts of GERD filling and operation.
日益增长的水和能源需求、水文气候波动、筑坝和使用权纠纷是全球跨境河流管理面临的主要挑战。特别令人感兴趣的是东尼罗河流域(ENRB)，在上游水坝增加的情况下，应该采用哪种建模方法来解决河流沿岸国家在跨界水管理方面的差异，这受到了广泛的争论。一些研究模拟了不同水文条件下大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝(GERD)蓄水过程中高阿斯旺大坝(HAD)下游蓄水量的变化。然而，他们的研究结果在GERD填充对HAD储存量的影响方面存在分歧，特别是当考虑到一个特定的、自然的、历史的10年期间来代表使用的平均流量条件，作为评估潜在下游影响的基准。我们对尼罗河流量历史记录的扩展分析表明，考虑一个单一的历史10年周期来模拟下游的水预算，正如Wheeler等人所做的那样(Nat comm 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x)，作为在平均流量条件下GERD填充不会在HAD产生赤字的有力证据，被广泛传达给决策者，这是不确定的，因为它强烈依赖于历史流入期的选择。由于河流年际流量变异性大。我们在Wheeler等人(Nat comm 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x)的数据表中对20个平均/接近平均历史流量期的模拟结果表明，在相同的建模条件和填充策略下，其中60%产生的下游水亏在0.5 - 14.5 BCM之间。因此，考虑多个流量序列的模拟结果对于准确反映尼罗河年际流量高变异性对下游水亏评估的影响，从而解决跨界水管理预测中对GERD充注和运行影响的差异至关重要。
{"title":"Examining the Accuracy of Using a Single Short-Term Historical Flow Period to Assess the Nile’s Downstream Water Deficit from GERD Filling: A Technical Note","authors":"Essam Heggy, Mohamed Ramah, Abotalib Z. Abotalib","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00355-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00355-z","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Increasing water and energy demands, hydroclimatic fluctuations, damming, and usage rights disputes present major challenges in managing transboundary rivers worldwide. Of particular interest is the Eastern Nile River Basin (ENRB), which is subject to broad debate over which modeling approach should be applied to resolve the disparities in transboundary water management among the river’s riparian nations, under increased upstream damming. Several studies have simulated the downstream High Aswan Dam (HAD) storage change during the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling under different hydrological conditions. However, their findings diverge regarding the impacts of GERD filling on HAD storage, especially when considering a specific, naturalized, historical 10-year period to represent the average flow condition used, as a benchmark for assessing potential downstream impacts. Our extended analysis of the Nile flow historical records demonstrates that considering a single historical 10-year period to simulate the downstream water budget, as performed in Wheeler et al. (Nat Commun 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x), widely communicated to policymakers as a robust proof that GERD filling will not generate a deficit at HAD under average flow conditions, is inconclusive as it strongly depend on the selection of the historical inflow period, due to the river high interannual flow variability. Our simulation results of 20 average/near average historical flow periods in Wheeler et al. (Nat Commun 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x)’s datasheet indicates that 60% of them generates a downstream water deficit ranging from 0.5 to 14.5 BCM under the same modeling conditions and filling policy. Therefore, considering the simulation results of multiple flow sequences is crucial for accurately reflecting the impact of the Nile’s high interannual flow variability on downstream water deficit assessments, thereby settling the disparities in transboundary water management forecasts for the impacts of GERD filling and operation.","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136316661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-20DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00353-1
Abdellatif Rafik, Yassine Ait Brahim, Salah Ouhamdouch, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, Nadia Rhoujjati, Abdelghani Chehbouni
{"title":"A Multi-Tool 3D Conceptual Model to Elucidate Groundwater Processes, Vulnerability, and Recharge Patterns in a Semi-Arid Region: A Case Study from Morocco","authors":"Abdellatif Rafik, Yassine Ait Brahim, Salah Ouhamdouch, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, Nadia Rhoujjati, Abdelghani Chehbouni","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00353-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00353-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135570619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-26DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00352-2
Khalid Ibno Namr, Sanae Bel-Lahbib
{"title":"Use of Spatial Variability of Soil Quality Index Models and Soil Properties for Soil Quality Evaluation in the Irrigated Perimeter, Semi-Arid Region of Morocco","authors":"Khalid Ibno Namr, Sanae Bel-Lahbib","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00352-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00352-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134959996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00349-x
Aspasia Grammenou, S. Petropoulos, G. Thalassinos, J. Rinklebe, S. Shaheen, V. Antoniadis
{"title":"Biostimulants in the Soil–Plant Interface: Agro-environmental Implications—A Review","authors":"Aspasia Grammenou, S. Petropoulos, G. Thalassinos, J. Rinklebe, S. Shaheen, V. Antoniadis","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00349-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00349-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"93 1","pages":"583 - 600"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79583374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00351-3
Nour Naaouf, Csaba Zsolt Torma
Abstract Regional climate models are widely used to assess current and future impacts of climate change. In this study, we evaluate the performance of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment programme integrated over the following three CORDEX domains: AFR, MNA and WAS. Four meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and cloud cover) were evaluated over Syria at a grid spacing of 0.44 ° . The performance of five models in simulating the present climate characteristics (1989–2008) is evaluated with respect to the observations: CRU, ERA5 reanalysis and SARA and CLARA satellite data. We find that the mini-ensemble captures well the general spatial patterns and annual cycles of the selected variables. Anotheraim of this study was to assess the expected change of the mentioned four climate variables over Syria under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5) and the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) in the near future (2031–2050) and in the far future (2080–2099) with respect to the present climate (1989–2008). The simulations show a decreasing trend in cloud cover (between 6% and 10%) and precipitation (up to 9%) by mid and late century, regardless of the forcing scenarios. The simulations show a pronounced warming over Syria, which is expected to reach 6 °C by the end of the twenty-first century following the high greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). Furthermore, such an increase, combined with a decrease in precipitation, will shift Syria’s climate towards a more arid one.
{"title":"Climate of Syria Based on Cordex Simulations: Present and Future","authors":"Nour Naaouf, Csaba Zsolt Torma","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00351-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00351-3","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Regional climate models are widely used to assess current and future impacts of climate change. In this study, we evaluate the performance of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment programme integrated over the following three CORDEX domains: AFR, MNA and WAS. Four meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and cloud cover) were evaluated over Syria at a grid spacing of 0.44 ° . The performance of five models in simulating the present climate characteristics (1989–2008) is evaluated with respect to the observations: CRU, ERA5 reanalysis and SARA and CLARA satellite data. We find that the mini-ensemble captures well the general spatial patterns and annual cycles of the selected variables. Anotheraim of this study was to assess the expected change of the mentioned four climate variables over Syria under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5) and the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) in the near future (2031–2050) and in the far future (2080–2099) with respect to the present climate (1989–2008). The simulations show a decreasing trend in cloud cover (between 6% and 10%) and precipitation (up to 9%) by mid and late century, regardless of the forcing scenarios. The simulations show a pronounced warming over Syria, which is expected to reach 6 °C by the end of the twenty-first century following the high greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). Furthermore, such an increase, combined with a decrease in precipitation, will shift Syria’s climate towards a more arid one.","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135253544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-09DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00350-4
Pushpendra Johari, Sushil Kumar, S. Pattanayak, A. Routray, P. Raju
{"title":"Impact of different land use and land cover in simulation of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal","authors":"Pushpendra Johari, Sushil Kumar, S. Pattanayak, A. Routray, P. Raju","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00350-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00350-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"25 1","pages":"661 - 678"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86186496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00348-y
P. Hadjinicolaou, Anna Tzyrkalli, G. Zittis, J. Lelieveld
{"title":"Urbanisation and Geographical Signatures in Observed Air Temperature Station Trends Over the Mediterranean and the Middle East–North Africa","authors":"P. Hadjinicolaou, Anna Tzyrkalli, G. Zittis, J. Lelieveld","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00348-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00348-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"649 - 659"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72717015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Statistical Trend Analysis of Major Climatic Factors over Chhattisgarh State, India","authors":"Varun Dubey, Siddhant Panigrahi, Vikas Kumar Vidyarthi","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00345-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00345-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"85 1","pages":"629 - 648"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78148636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-13DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00347-z
M. Ehsan, M. Tippett, A. Robertson, Bohar Singh, Muhammad Ashfaqur Rahman
{"title":"The ENSO Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall","authors":"M. Ehsan, M. Tippett, A. Robertson, Bohar Singh, Muhammad Ashfaqur Rahman","doi":"10.1007/s41748-023-00347-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00347-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45867,"journal":{"name":"Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"37 1","pages":"617 - 627"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85459539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：