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Optimal pricing decision and capacity allocation of opaque selling in airline revenue management 航空公司收益管理中不透明销售的最优定价决策和运力分配
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00483-9
Ben Li, Xiaolong Guo, Liang Liang

This paper studies the opaque selling strategy for a parallel-flight airline based on a newsvendor model with stochastic demand. The optimal pricing decision and capacity allocation policy are obtained and analyzed subject to necessary assumptions. There is a relationship between the optimal allocated capacities of these flights, and the airline can adjust its capacity allocation decisions according to this relationship. In addition, the airline is suggested to allocate more capacity for opaque seats if the demand variance is high or the difference in consumer’s preferences between flights is small; meanwhile, a lower price for opaque seats will be provided when the variance is high or the difference is large. Numerical experiments are presented to show the effectiveness of the opaque selling strategy, and the results indicate that this strategy brings a 1.09% revenue increment on average compared to the conventional strategy.

本文基于随机需求的新闻供应商模型,研究了平行航班航空公司的不透明销售策略。在必要的假设条件下,得到并分析了最优定价决策和运力分配政策。这些航班的最优运力分配之间存在某种关系,航空公司可根据这种关系调整其运力分配决策。此外,如果需求差异较大或消费者对航班的偏好差异较小,建议航空公司为不透明座位分配更多的运力;同时,当差异较大或差异较大时,将为不透明座位提供较低的价格。数值实验显示了不透明销售策略的有效性,结果表明,与传统策略相比,该策略平均能带来 1.09% 的收益增长。
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引用次数: 0
How to effectively present “book now, pay later”: the effects of appeal type, temporal distance, and traveler type on attitudes and purchase intentions 如何有效展示 "现在预订,稍后付款":诉求类型、时间距离和旅行者类型对态度和购买意向的影响
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00485-7
Yisak Jang, Yan Cao

In today’s hotel industry, increasingly more hotels offer additional options on their booking websites, such as “book now, pay later.” Despite the prevalence of this phenomenon, methods to present this option more effectively have received limited attention. Using a 2 × 2 × 2 experimental design, this research examines how appeal type (attribute versus benefit appeals) and temporal distance (i.e., time of booking) jointly influence evaluations of the “pay later” option; it also investigates whether the joint effect has a boundary condition. The results demonstrated that leisure travelers planning a trip in the near future had more positive attitudes and greater purchase intentions when the “pay later” option was presented via an attribute appeal rather than a benefit appeal. However, leisure travelers planning a trip in the distant future did not exhibit such differences in attitudes and purchase intentions. Furthermore, this research revealed that the joint effect of appeal type and temporal distance was evident only for leisure travelers but not for business travelers.

在当今的酒店业,越来越多的酒店在其预订网站上提供额外选项,如 "现在预订,稍后付款"。尽管这种现象很普遍,但如何更有效地提供这种选择却很少受到关注。本研究采用 2 × 2 × 2 实验设计,考察了诉求类型(属性诉求与利益诉求)和时间距离(即预订时间)如何共同影响对 "稍后付款 "选项的评价;本研究还考察了联合效应是否具有边界条件。结果表明,当 "稍后付款 "选项通过属性诉求而非利益诉求呈现时,计划在近期内旅行的休闲旅行者会有更积极的态度和更高的购买意愿。然而,计划远期旅行的休闲旅行者在态度和购买意向上并没有表现出这种差异。此外,这项研究还发现,只有休闲旅行者才会受到吸引力类型和时间距离的共同影响,而商务旅行者则不会。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic levers of revenue management: a three-dimensional model to categorize industries 收益管理的战略杠杆:行业分类的三维模型
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00484-8
Henri Kuokkanen

Strategic levers play a fundamental role in revenue management (RM). Earlier research has established price, time, and space as the three levers businesses can wield to optimize performance, but a synthesis of all three is missing. This article presents a three-dimensional model of revenue management levers that categorizes industries in eight octants, visualized as the cube of RM levers. The cube sharpens RM theory and helps companies to identify new opportunities for revenue optimization through comparison with other businesses within their octant. Similarly, it facilitates evaluating possibilities of moving to another octant. Finally, the cube can also assist businesses new to RM to apply strategic levers, address RM collaboration challenges in tourism destinations, and contribute to education in the field.

战略杠杆在收益管理(RM)中发挥着根本性的作用。早先的研究已将价格、时间和空间确定为企业优化业绩的三大杠杆,但还缺少对这三大杠杆的综合分析。本文提出了一个收益管理杠杆的三维模型,将各行业分为八个八面体,可视化为收益管理杠杆立方体。这个立方体使收入管理理论更加清晰,并帮助企业通过与本八度内的其他企业进行比较,发现收入优化的新机遇。同样,它也有助于评估向另一个八度空间转移的可能性。最后,该立方体还可以帮助刚刚接触经营管理的企业应用战略杠杆,应对旅游目的地经营管理合作方面的挑战,并为该领域的教育做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Quantity surcharge, competition and package size: evidence from India 数量附加费、竞争和包装规模:来自印度的证据
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00482-w
Dhruv Goel, Anushka Goyal, Ishaan Sand

We investigate the influence of market competition heterogeneity across package sizes on a firm’s pricing strategy. We focus on the transition from quantity discounts (common practice) to quantity surcharges (charging more for larger packages) and hypothesise that firms adopt surcharges when competition is significantly higher in the smaller-package market. Using a survey of 38 grocery stores, we find that the adoption of surcharges rises alongside substantial disparities in competition between sizes, as measured by brand availability. We posit that varying demand elasticities between pack sizes, driven by heterogeneous consumer preferences, may underpin this competition divergence and subsequent pricing strategy shifts. Our findings contribute to the understanding of pricing dynamics under asymmetric competition and offer insights for firms navigating competitive landscapes across product formats.

我们研究了不同包装尺寸的市场竞争异质性对企业定价策略的影响。我们将重点放在从数量折扣(常见做法)向数量附加费(对大包装收取更多费用)的过渡上,并假设当小包装市场竞争明显加剧时,企业会采用附加费。通过对 38 家杂货店的调查,我们发现,在采用附加费的同时,以品牌供应量为衡量标准的大小包装之间的竞争也出现了巨大差异。我们认为,在异质消费者偏好的驱动下,不同规格包装之间的需求弹性各不相同,这可能是这种竞争差异和随后定价策略转变的基础。我们的研究结果有助于人们理解非对称竞争下的定价动态,并为企业驾驭跨产品规格的竞争格局提供启示。
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引用次数: 0
Granger causality networks of price leadership in the retail tea market of Argentina 阿根廷茶叶零售市场价格领导力的格兰杰因果关系网络
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00480-y
Juan M. C. Larrosa, Emiliano M. Gutiérrez, Juan I. Uriarte, Gonzalo R. Ramírez Muñoz de Toro

Recently, price leadership in supermarkets has become a subject of extensive research. In our study, we utilize the Generalized Seaton–Waterson (GSW) method, but with a unique approach based on Granger causality networks. As it naturally captures statistically significant price variation sequences, the multiple interactions observed by a network present dimensions hardly observed when studying pairwise relations. Our investigation centers on retail tea product data from three stores in Argentina. The results highlight numerous significant leader–follower relationships, primarily associated with Black tea options and brand interactions. We distinguish two main brands in the market as segment leaders. This insight sheds light on the dynamics of price leadership within the retail tea market and provides valuable information for market participants and researchers alike.

近来,超市的价格领导力已成为广泛研究的主题。在我们的研究中,我们使用了广义 Seaton-Waterson(GSW)方法,但采用了一种基于格兰杰因果关系网络的独特方法。由于它能自然地捕捉到具有统计意义的价格变化序列,网络所观察到的多重交互作用在研究配对关系时很难观察到。我们的研究以阿根廷三家商店的零售茶叶产品数据为中心。结果凸显了许多重要的领导者-追随者关系,主要与红茶选择和品牌互动有关。我们将市场上的两个主要品牌区分为细分市场的领导者。这一洞察力揭示了茶叶零售市场中的价格领导动态,为市场参与者和研究人员提供了有价值的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Sales prediction hybrid models for retails using promotional pricing strategy as a key demand driver 以促销定价策略为主要需求驱动因素的零售业销售预测混合模型
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00477-7
Naragain Phumchusri, Nichakan Phupaichitkun

The implementation of promotional pricing strategies constitutes a key component within the realm of retail revenue management. Nonetheless, the accurate prediction of sales in the presence of price discounts proves challenging due to the influence of various factors that contribute to demand uncertainty and high fluctuations. This study aims to find the most suitable prediction models for retail product unit sales while comprehensively accounting for the complex impacts of contributing factors. The dataset, sourced from a case study of a retail company, spans the temporal interval from January 2020 to December 2022. The predictive models, encompassing linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, artificial neural networks, and hybrid machine-learning models, are systematically developed. Then, the identification of the most suitable model is facilitated through the computation and comparative analysis of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, with due consideration given to the weighting by the respective product’s revenue, thereby offering a comprehensive assessment of overall performance. Additionally, different types of feature selection are experimented. Factors used in machine learning models are either using all the independent variables or using significant factors from the stepwise method, and either considering or not considering exogenous factors of other products in the same cluster grouped by category, subcategory, or K-means method. The result shows that the series hybrid model of random forest and XGBoost outperformed others. Considering factors affecting sales, it is found that the promotion period factor was the most important, followed by discount percentage and price factors. This research provides analytics framework for sales prediction for retails using promotional pricing as a key demand driver.

促销定价策略的实施是零售收入管理领域的关键组成部分。然而,由于需求的不确定性和高波动性受到各种因素的影响,在存在价格折扣的情况下准确预测销售额具有挑战性。本研究旨在找到最适合零售产品单位销售额的预测模型,同时全面考虑各种因素的复杂影响。数据集来自一家零售公司的案例研究,时间跨度为 2020 年 1 月至 2022 年 12 月。系统地开发了预测模型,包括线性回归、随机森林、XGBoost、人工神经网络和混合机器学习模型。然后,通过计算和比较分析平均绝对百分比误差来确定最合适的模型,并适当考虑了各产品收入的权重,从而对整体性能进行全面评估。此外,还尝试了不同类型的特征选择。机器学习模型中使用的因素可以使用所有自变量,也可以使用逐步法中的重要因素,还可以考虑或不考虑同一群组中按类别、子类别或 K-means 法分组的其他产品的外生因素。结果表明,随机森林和 XGBoost 的系列混合模型优于其他模型。在考虑影响销售的因素时,研究发现促销期因素最为重要,其次是折扣比例和价格因素。这项研究为以促销价格为主要需求驱动因素的零售业销售预测提供了分析框架。
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引用次数: 0
Trends and persistence in global olive oil prices after COVID-19 COVID-19 之后全球橄榄油价格的趋势和持续性
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00481-x
Manuel Monge

Once the coronavirus pandemic was declared by government authorities in March 2020 and several measures were adopted around the world to limit the effects of COVID-19, the limit agroeconomic processing affected important operations such as not being able to prepare the olive trees for the next harvest. This lack of processes has caused the consumer to perceive an increase in prices due to the shortage of product and the growing demand for olive oil around the world. This research paper, through the use of advanced statistical and econometric techniques, attempts to perform a specific analysis and understand the persistence of the data and the trend of global olive oil prices. Artificial intelligence techniques such as neural network models are also used to predict long-term price behavior. Using ARFIMA (p, d, q) model, the results suggest a non-mean reversion behavior, suggesting that the shock is expected to be permanent, causing a change in trend. This result is in line with that obtained using machine learning techniques, where the forecast suggests an increase of the prices around + 11.36% in the next 12 months.

政府当局在 2020 年 3 月宣布冠状病毒大流行后,世界各地采取了多项措施来限制 COVID-19 的影响,限制农业经济加工影响了重要的业务,如无法为下一次收获准备橄榄树。由于产品短缺和世界各地对橄榄油的需求不断增长,这种加工过程的缺乏导致消费者认为价格上涨。本研究论文通过使用先进的统计和计量经济学技术,试图进行具体分析,了解数据的持久性和全球橄榄油价格的趋势。神经网络模型等人工智能技术也被用于预测长期价格行为。使用 ARFIMA(p、d、q)模型,结果显示出非均值回归行为,表明冲击预计是永久性的,会导致趋势变化。这一结果与使用机器学习技术得出的结果一致,即预测表明未来 12 个月价格将上涨约 + 11.36%。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing robustness to forecast errors in availability control for airline revenue management 增强航空公司收益管理可用性控制对预测误差的稳健性
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00475-9
Tiago Gonçalves, Bernardo Almada-Lobo

Traditional revenue management systems are built under the assumption of independent demand per fare. The fare adjustment theory is a methodology to adjust fares that allows for the continued use of optimization algorithms and seat inventory control methods, even with the shift toward dependent demand. Since accurate demand forecasts are a key input to this methodology, it is reasonable to assume that for a scenario with uncertainties it may deliver suboptimal performance. Particularly, during and after COVID-19, airlines faced striking challenges in demand forecasting. This study demonstrates, firstly, the theoretical dominance of the fare adjustment theory under perfect conditions. Secondly, it lacks robustness to forecast errors. A Monte Carlo simulation replicating a revenue management system under mild assumptions indicates that a forecast error of (pm 20%) can potentially prompt a necessity to adjust the margin employed in the fare adjustment theory by (-10%). Moreover, a tree-based machine learning model highlights the forecast error as the predominant factor, with bias playing an even more pivotal role than variance. An out-of-sample study indicates that the predictive model steadily outperforms the fare adjustment theory.

传统的收益管理系统是在每一票价需求独立的假设下建立的。票价调整理论是一种调整票价的方法,它允许继续使用优化算法和座位库存控制方法,即使转向依赖需求。由于准确的需求预测是这一方法的关键输入,因此可以合理地假设,在存在不确定性的情况下,该方法可能会产生次优性能。特别是在 COVID-19 期间和之后,航空公司在需求预测方面面临着巨大的挑战。这项研究首先证明了票价调整理论在完美条件下的理论优势。其次,它缺乏对预测误差的稳健性。在温和的假设条件下复制收益管理系统的蒙特卡罗模拟表明,预测误差为(pm 20%)可能会促使票价调整理论所采用的利润率必须调整(-10%)。此外,基于树状结构的机器学习模型强调预测误差是主要因素,而偏差的作用甚至比方差更关键。一项样本外研究表明,预测模型稳定地优于票价调整理论。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic-level perceived fairness of hotel dynamic pricing: the role of cues and the asymmetric moderating effect of inflation attribution 酒店动态定价的战略层面公平感:线索的作用和通货膨胀归因的非对称调节作用
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00479-5
Rui Qi, Dan Jin, Han Chen, Xichen Mou, Faizan Ali

This study examines consumers’ perceived fairness of hotel dynamic pricing, particularly in the evolving contexts of inflation and the post-pandemic phase. Instead of focusing solely on individual price points or price increases, this study develops a fairness model of dynamic pricing at the strategy level. It incorporates both social and physiological cues and broader contextual factors, given the inherent uncertainty surrounding the equality of outcomes. A sample of 579 U.S. consumers was recruited using Qualtrics consumer panel services. The study employs an orthogonalizing approach to eliminate the collinearity introduced by creating interaction terms. Rather than relying on internal price comparison, this study finds that consumers rationalize the pricing strategy based on two key cues: negative emotions and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Moreover, the study reveals an asymmetric effect of inflation attribution in moderating the cue-fairness linkage. Attributing dynamic pricing to inflation buffers the adverse effect of negative emotions while not enhancing the positive effect of CSR. Lastly, the study indicates that consumers’ perceived fairness of dynamic pricing increases consumer loyalty while decreasing revenge.

本研究探讨了消费者对酒店动态定价公平性的看法,尤其是在通货膨胀和大流行后阶段的不断变化的背景下。本研究没有仅仅关注单个价位或价格上涨,而是在策略层面建立了动态定价的公平性模型。考虑到结果平等的内在不确定性,该模型将社会和生理线索以及更广泛的背景因素纳入其中。本研究使用 Qualtrics 消费者小组服务招募了 579 位美国消费者样本。研究采用了一种正交化方法,以消除通过创建交互项引入的共线性。本研究发现,消费者并不依赖于内部价格比较,而是根据负面情绪和企业社会责任(CSR)这两个关键线索对定价策略进行合理化。此外,研究还揭示了通货膨胀归因在调节线索-公平联系方面的非对称效应。将动态定价归因于通货膨胀可以缓冲负面情绪的不利影响,而不会增强企业社会责任的积极影响。最后,研究表明,消费者对动态定价公平性的感知提高了消费者忠诚度,同时降低了报复心理。
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引用次数: 0
Customer type discovery in hotel revenue management: a data mining approach 酒店收益管理中的客户类型发现:一种数据挖掘方法
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00474-w
Hamed Sherafat Moula, S. Hadi Yaghoubyan, Razieh Malekhosseini, Karamollah Bagherifard

Demand estimation is a fundamental component of revenue management systems. The demand for a product can be ascertained from the customers who purchase it. Identifying customer types in this context is a challenging endeavor, recently resolved using meta-heuristic and mathematical techniques. Meta-heuristics leverage the scarcity of data in the search space, commencing with random samples and employing the fitness function as a guide during operations. Our proposed approach generates the search space by incorporating supplementary data to identify valuable customer types. We employ a new period table with additional data to achieve this objective. Subsequently, we reduce the search space through data mining's clustering method and ultimately employ a greedy algorithm and fitness function to identify valuable customer types and construct our solution. To validate our approach, we compare our solution and the most recent research in this field, including genetic, memetic, and mathematical approaches. Compared to memetic methods, our results indicate that our solution has a smaller length, with a maximum reduction of 34%, and exhibits improvement in log value, with a maximum of 7%.

需求评估是收益管理系统的基本组成部分。对产品的需求可以通过购买产品的客户来确定。在这种情况下,识别客户类型是一项极具挑战性的工作,最近采用元启发式和数学技术解决了这一问题。元启发式利用搜索空间中数据的稀缺性,从随机样本开始,并在操作过程中使用适合度函数作为指导。我们提出的方法通过纳入补充数据来生成搜索空间,从而识别有价值的客户类型。为实现这一目标,我们采用了一个包含额外数据的新周期表。随后,我们通过数据挖掘的聚类方法来缩小搜索空间,最终采用贪婪算法和适配函数来识别有价值的客户类型,并构建我们的解决方案。为了验证我们的方法,我们将我们的解决方案与该领域的最新研究进行了比较,包括遗传、记忆和数学方法。结果表明,与记忆法相比,我们的解决方案长度更小,最大可减少 34%,对数值也有所提高,最大可提高 7%。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management
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