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On the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem in the Presence of Banks and a Reserve Requirement 论有银行和准备金要求时的李嘉图等价定理
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231213214
Raymond G. Batina, Toshihiro Ihori
We study the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem in the presence of a reserve requirement. Banks pay depositors the deposit rate and receive the borrowing rate on loans. Equivalence fails because the reserve requirement drives a wedge between the deposit and borrowing rates implying that government faces a different intertemporal tradeoff than savers. A tax cut financed by an increase in government debt causes an increase in savings but only increases the supply of loanable funds by a fraction because of the reserve requirement. This causes interest rates to rise and consumption to fall. We also show that if the central bank pays interest on reserves at the borrowing rate, the various rates are equal, however, equivalence still fails. The reason is that future taxes to pay down the debt must be higher for the central bank to pay interest and consumption will fall in response.
我们研究存款准备金要求下的李嘉图等价定理。银行向储户支付存款利率,并收取贷款的借款利率。等效性失效的原因是,存款准备金要求在存款利率和借款利率之间形成了一个楔子,这意味着政府面临着与储蓄者不同的跨期权衡。通过增加政府债务来减税会导致储蓄增加,但由于存款准备金率的存在,可贷资金的供应量只增加了一小部分。这导致利率上升,消费下降。我们还表明,如果中央银行按借款利率支付准备金利息,各种利率是相等的,但等价性仍然失效。原因是未来用于偿还债务的税收必须更高,中央银行才会支付利息,消费也会随之下降。
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引用次数: 0
Limiting Public Expenditure to Ensure Public Debt Sustainability in the EMU 限制公共支出以确保欧洲货币联盟公共债务的可持续性
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231210730
Séverine Menguy
In the European Economic and Monetary Union, the fiscal background must ensure the sustainability of the public debt, but fiscal policies must also keep enough flexibility to stabilize global economic activity in case of large shocks, as the common monetary policy becomes less efficient. In the prospect of a reform of the Fiscal Compact after the standby of European fiscal rules with the COVID-19 health crisis, and in conformity with theoretical studies underlying the advantages of such rules, the current paper suggests a rule related to nominal public expenditure excluding interest rates, with a debt feedback mechanism to ensure the sustainability of the public debt path. According to this rule, it appears that six Economic and Monetary Union member countries are particularly highly indebted and should probably control and reduce their public expenditure in order to make their public debt sustainable: France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Portugal, and Greece.
在欧洲经济与货币联盟(European Economic and Monetary Union),财政背景必须确保公共债务的可持续性,但财政政策也必须保持足够的灵活性,以便在发生重大冲击时稳定全球经济活动,因为共同货币政策的效率会降低。在应对新冠肺炎健康危机的欧洲财政规则出台后,考虑到《财政契约》改革的前景,结合相关理论研究,本文提出了一种与扣除利率的名义公共支出相关的规则,并配有债务反馈机制,以确保公共债务路径的可持续性。根据这一规则,似乎有六个经济和货币联盟成员国负债特别高,可能应该控制和减少公共支出,以使其公共债务可持续:法国、西班牙、意大利、比利时、葡萄牙和希腊。
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引用次数: 0
The Public Finance Position of Immigrants in Europe: A Quantile Regression Approach 欧洲移民的公共财政状况:分位数回归方法
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231197280
Majlinda Joxhe, Pasquale Scaramozzino, Skerdilajda Zanaj
We contrast the net fiscal position (NFP) of immigrants versus natives using data from the European Survey on Living Conditions for 2007–2015. Using a quantile regression approach, we find that European and non-European migrants have a different fiscal position from natives only on the extreme tails of the NFP distribution. Non-EU migrants contribute even more than natives in the top quantile of the NFP, but they are more fiscally dependent than native citizens in the lowest quantile. These findings suggest that immigrants are not a public finance burden and do not increase public spending in the destination country. We also examine the relationship between migrants’ fiscal position and the fiscal perception of natives versus migrants as measured in the European Social Survey. We believe that by examining the effects of migrants on public spending, we can gain valuable insights into the economic implications of immigration and develop evidence-based migration policies, fostering integration.
我们使用2007-2015年欧洲生活条件调查的数据对比了移民和本地人的净财政状况(NFP)。使用分位数回归方法,我们发现欧洲和非欧洲移民只有在NFP分布的极端尾部才与本地人有不同的财政状况。在NFP的前五分之一中,非欧盟移民的贡献甚至超过了本国公民,但在财政上,他们比最低四分之一的本国公民更依赖本国公民。这些发现表明,移民不是公共财政负担,也不会增加目的国的公共支出。我们还研究了移民的财政状况和本地人对移民的财政看法之间的关系,这是在欧洲社会调查中测量的。我们相信,通过研究移民对公共支出的影响,我们可以对移民的经济影响获得有价值的见解,并制定基于证据的移民政策,促进融合。
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引用次数: 0
Between Election Rivalry and the Agency Costs of Government: The Effectiveness of Party Competition Across Indian States, 1957–2018 选举竞争与政府代理成本之间:1957-2018年印度各邦政党竞争的有效性
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231204651
J. Stephen Ferris, Bharatee Bhusana Dash
Two dimensions of the intensity of interparty rivalry are used to test the hypothesis that greater interparty competition enhances government efficiency. Using data from a set of 14 large Indian state governments between 1957 and 2018, we find confirmation for two political rivalry hypotheses. The first is that the ex-post size of the first versus second place seat share winning margin is a useful metric of the (in)effectiveness of rival party policing of incumbent spending behavior. The second is the hypothesis that excessive spending by the incumbent governing party is decreased by the expectation of greater election contestability and that contestability is related to the expected effective number of competing parties ( ENPSeats) nonmonotonically. Our analysis suggests that contestability across Indian States reaches a maximum when the incumbent faces an expectation of ENPSeats that is closer to 5 than to Duverger's 2.
本文利用党际竞争强度的两个维度来检验党际竞争增强政府效率的假设。利用1957年至2018年间印度14个大邦政府的数据,我们发现了两个政治竞争假设的证实。首先,第一名和第二名席位份额获胜差额的事后大小是衡量对手政党监管现任支出行为的有效性的有用指标。第二种假设是,现任执政党的过度支出会因对更大选举可竞争性的预期而减少,且可竞争性与预期竞争政党的有效数量(ENPSeats)非单调相关。我们的分析表明,当现任者面临的enp席位预期接近5个,而不是Duverger的2个时,印度各邦的可竞争性达到最大值。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Fiscal Stress Labels on Local Governments’ Financial Management: Evidence from New York State Fiscal Stress Monitoring System 财政压力标签对地方政府财务管理的影响:来自纽约州财政压力监测系统的证据
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231199023
Hyewon Kang, Gang Chen
State government's role in monitoring local governments’ fiscal distress gained importance after several local financial crises. Although many states have implemented state monitoring systems, the effectiveness of these systems has not been well understood. Using the case of the New York State, we conducted a regression discontinuity analysis to examine the effect of fiscal stress labeling on local governments. We find some evidence to support that fiscal stress labels lead local governments to improve their fund balance and cash positions. Specifically, school districts at the early stage of fiscal stress are more responsive to the labels than districts under more severe fiscal stress.
在几次地方财政危机之后,州政府在监督地方政府财政困境方面的作用变得越来越重要。尽管许多州已经实施了状态监测系统,但这些系统的有效性尚未得到很好的了解。以纽约州为例,我们进行了回归不连续分析,以检验财政压力标签对地方政府的影响。我们发现一些证据支持财政压力标签导致地方政府改善其资金余额和现金状况。具体来说,处于财政压力早期阶段的学区比财政压力更严重的学区对标签的反应更敏感。
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引用次数: 0
Piecemeal Modeling of the Effects of Joint Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms 直接税和间接税联合改革影响的零碎模型
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231198738
Bart Capéau, André Decoster, Stijn Van Houtven
In this article, we elicit the assumptions needed for an assessment of a joint reform of personal income and indirect taxes in a consistent conceptual framework. One often lacks an encompassing model for both labor supply decisions in real world tax and benefit contexts and the allocation of disposable income to commodities. We characterize households’ labor supply decisions by a random utility random opportunity model of job choice. We illustrate the framework with a Belgian tax reform proposal that shifts the burden away from labor taxes to indirect taxation. We find substantial empirical evidence that, both from a distributional and from a budgetary perspective, it is important to account for the impact of indirect taxes on the labor supply decision of households. The cost recovery effects of the tax shift are negative. This is, among other things, explained by the income effect in our job choice model.
在本文中,我们引出了在一致的概念框架中评估个人所得税和间接税联合改革所需的假设。对于现实世界中税收和福利背景下的劳动力供给决策,以及可支配收入对商品的分配,人们往往缺乏一个全面的模型。我们通过工作选择的随机效用随机机会模型来表征家庭劳动力供给决策。我们用比利时的税收改革提案来说明这个框架,该提案将负担从劳动税转移到间接税。我们发现大量的经验证据表明,从分配和预算的角度来看,考虑间接税对家庭劳动力供给决策的影响是很重要的。税收转移的成本回收效应是负面的。除此之外,这可以用我们的工作选择模型中的收入效应来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Head Start Funding Expansions and Program Inputs 先导性启动资金的扩大和项目投入
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231197454
Chris M. Herbst, Esra Kose
This paper provides some of the first evidence on the relationship between Head Start funding expansions and program inputs. We take advantage of the county–year variation in funding increases that were implemented due to a number of legislated policy changes in the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s. By focusing on the period between 1988 and 2007, we show that the funding increases were directed at increasing total and full-time enrollment. We also show that the funding expansions were used to make several quality-related investments, including increasing the number of teachers and staff and upgrading the skill level of teachers.
本文提供了一些关于先导性启动资金扩展与项目投入之间关系的初步证据。由于1980年代末和整个1990年代的一些立法政策变化,我们利用了县年度资金增加的变化。通过关注1988年至2007年这段时间,我们发现资金增加的目的是增加总入学率和全日制入学率。我们还表明,扩大的资金用于若干与质量有关的投资,包括增加教师和工作人员的数量以及提高教师的技能水平。
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引用次数: 1
Estimating the Fiscal Impact of Stadium Developments: Evaluating a Pro Forma Model 估计体育场发展的财政影响:评估一个预估模型
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231199517
Robert W. Baumann, John Charles Bradbury
Although researchers have demonstrated conclusively that sports stadiums are not economic development catalysts, stadium projects that include preplanned ancillary developments have been proposed as a salutary strategy to overcome the widely observed dismal economic performance of standalone stadiums. Using an objective rubric for evaluating economic impact studies, we review a commissioned pro forma model that claims to demonstrate net positive fiscal impacts of two prominent publicly-financed stadium-anchored developments. Using assumptions informed by existing research and established discipline standards, the model estimates substantial negative returns for both projects (−$40 to −$60 million in Worcester, Massachusetts and −$100 to −$200 million in Cobb County, Georgia). We find that the reported fiscal surpluses derive from chosen assumptions and not the stadiums’ complementary developments. We conclude that pro forma estimates do not provide credible forecasts of fiscal impacts, and ancillary developments do not improve the fiscal returns of stadium projects.
尽管研究人员已经得出结论,体育场馆不是经济发展的催化剂,但包括预先规划的辅助开发的体育场馆项目已被提出作为一种有益的策略,以克服广泛观察到的独立体育场馆惨淡的经济表现。使用评估经济影响研究的客观准则,我们审查了一个委托的形式模型,该模型声称证明了两个突出的公共资助体育场锚定开发项目的净积极财政影响。根据现有研究和既定学科标准的假设,该模型估计这两个项目的实际负回报(马萨诸塞州伍斯特的- 4000万至- 6000万美元,佐治亚州科布县的- 1亿至- 2亿美元)。我们发现,报告的财政盈余来自选定的假设,而不是体育场馆的互补发展。我们的结论是,形式估计不能提供财政影响的可信预测,辅助开发不能提高体育场项目的财政回报。
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引用次数: 1
Does the Swiss Debt Brake Induce Sound Federal Finances? A Synthetic Control Analysis 瑞士“债务刹车”会带来稳健的联邦财政吗?综合控制分析
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231191566
Christian F. Pfeil, Lars P. Feld
The Swiss debt brake is widely appreciated as one of the most rationally designed fiscal rules in the world and was thus also discussed as a blueprint in the debates about fiscal rules in Germany, the European Union member states and Israel. However, evidence that this rule really contributes to sound federal finances, in the sense of reducing the cyclically adjusted deficits, does not exist yet. We investigate the effectiveness of the Swiss debt brake by employing the Synthetic Control Method. We find that the introduction of this fiscal rule improved the budget balance by about 3.7 percentage points on average in a post-intervention period covering five years.
瑞士的债务刹车被广泛认为是世界上设计最合理的财政规则之一,因此在德国、欧盟成员国和以色列关于财政规则的辩论中也被作为蓝图进行了讨论。然而,从减少经周期调整的赤字的角度来看,这一规则确实有助于健全联邦财政的证据尚不存在。我们采用综合控制方法来研究瑞士债务刹车的有效性。我们发现,在干预后的5年时间里,这一财政规则的引入使预算平衡平均提高了约3.7个百分点。
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引用次数: 10
Stimulus or Enforcement? How Intergovernmental Transfers Crowd-in Local Taxes in Indonesia 刺激还是强制?政府间转移支付如何挤占印尼地方税
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/10911421231191961
Prianto Budi Saptono, Gustofan Mahmud
This study quantifies intergovernmental transfers’ contemporaneous and lagged effects on local tax revenues of districts/municipalities in Indonesia. This study found that transfer as aggregate and unconditional transfers/ Dana Alokasi Umum have crowding-in effects on local tax revenues. Meanwhile, revenue sharing/ Dana Bagi Hasil and conditional transfers/ Dana Alokasi Khusus do not significantly affect the tax revenues of districts/municipalities. In addition, system-Generalized Method of Moments estimation results show that the contemporaneous effects of transfers are more prominent in magnitude than their lagged effects. It indicates that local tax enforcement due to transfers provides a larger portion than the local spending stimulus in determining local revenue increases. Our findings refute the negative stigma that emerged after implementing fiscal decentralization, particularly related to the disincentive effect of transfers on local government efforts to generate their revenues. Therefore, equitably endowing local governments with intergovernmental transfers will improve their accountability and build public trust.
本研究量化了政府间转移对印度尼西亚各地区/市政府地方税收收入的同期和滞后影响。这项研究发现,作为累计和无条件转移/Dana Alokasi Umum的转移对地方税收有挤入效应。同时,收入分享/Dana Bagi Hasil和有条件转移/Dana Alokasi Khusus不会对地区/市政府的税收产生重大影响。此外,系统广义矩量法估计结果表明,转移的同期效应比滞后效应在幅度上更为突出。它表明,在决定地方收入增长方面,由于转移而产生的地方税收执法比地方支出刺激提供了更大的份额。我们的研究结果驳斥了在实施财政权力下放后出现的负面污名,特别是与转移支付对地方政府创收的抑制作用有关。因此,公平地向地方政府提供政府间转移将提高其问责制并建立公众信任。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW
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