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IDENTIFICATION OF SALES SERIES WITH TREND AND SEASONALITY USING SELECTED METHODS 使用选定的方法识别具有趋势和季节性的销售系列
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9699
Anna Borucka, Jolanta Wierzbicka
The actions taken by companies today are increasingly precise, dedicated to specific market expectations therefore require an increasingly solid basis for decision-making, especially at the strategic level. A key support in this area is forecasting methods that allow probing about the future with a certain probability. Therefore, methods for determining such forecasts are developing rapidly, creating an arsenal of usable tools. However, many of them rely on modern information retrieval systems, require accurate data with many variables and a long history. Despite the advancing digitization, this is still unattainable for many (especially small) businesses. Therefore, the presentation and methods of short-term forecasting using analytical models should not be abandoned, because for many companies this is the best solution, and often the only one possible. This idea became the genesis of this article. It selects and presents methods dedicated to time series characterized by trend and seasonality, which are quite difficult to identify. They were compared and a method of model selection strategy was presented to select the forecast with the highest reliability. The models presented are easy to interpret and utilitarian and can provide effective support for supply chain management processes.
今天,公司采取的行动越来越精确,致力于特定的市场预期,因此需要越来越坚实的决策基础,特别是在战略层面。在这个领域的一个关键支持是预测方法,它允许以一定的概率探测未来。因此,确定这种预测的方法正在迅速发展,创造了一个可用工具库。然而,它们中的许多依赖于现代信息检索系统,需要精确的数据,变量多,历史悠久。尽管数字化在不断发展,但对于许多(尤其是小型)企业来说,这仍然是无法实现的。因此,不应该放弃使用分析模型进行短期预测的表示和方法,因为对许多公司来说,这是最好的解决方案,而且往往是唯一可能的解决方案。这个想法成为这篇文章的起源。它选择并提出了专门用于具有趋势和季节性特征的时间序列的方法,这些方法很难识别。在此基础上,提出了一种模型选择策略,选择可靠性最高的预测模型。所提出的模型易于解释和实用,可以为供应链管理过程提供有效的支持。
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引用次数: 0
FINANCIAL SECURITY OF FAMILIES OF PERSONS DEPRIVED OF THEIR LIBERTY - SELECTED PROBLEM ISSUES 被剥夺自由者家庭的经济保障——选定的问题
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9605
Jolanta Wierzbicka
The analysis of the situation of families of persons deprived of their liberty allows for consideration the difficulties faced by these families on a daily basis. These difficulties result mainly from the overlapping of social and economic problems that determine having adequate financial resources necessary to meet existential needs. The article presents the forms of assistance that the families of persons deprived of their liberty can count on from government administration and local govern-ment bodies. Statistics on the scope and forms of post-penitentiary assistance provided to convicts in penitentiary units, in connection with preparing them for life, are also shown in freedom condi-tions.
在分析被剥夺自由者家庭的情况时,可以考虑到这些家庭每天所面临的困难。这些困难主要是由于社会和经济问题重叠造成的,这些问题决定了是否有足够的财政资源来满足生存需要。这篇文章介绍了被剥夺自由者的家属可以指望从政府行政部门和地方政府机构得到的各种援助形式。关于向监狱单位的罪犯提供的监狱后援助的范围和形式的统计数字,与使他们为生活做好准备有关,也列在自由条件中。
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引用次数: 0
THE PHENOMENON OF THE EPIDEMIC OF SILENCE AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF ORGANIZATIONAL MANAGEMENT 从组织管理的角度分析沉默流行现象作为一个关键因素
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9603
Marek Adamski
In recent years, more and more organizations have recognized that efficiency and effectiveness depend not only on access to qualified personnel, technology or capital, but also on an organiza-tional culture that enables open and free expression of opinions by employees. Research and obser-vations in the field of management and quality sciences indicate that many organizations face the challenge of the so-called epidemic of silence (hereinafter referred to as EC), i.e. a situation in which employees avoid openly expressing their opinions or sharing their concerns, ideas or inno-vations. The author has attempted to describe EC as a phenomenon resulting from specific behav-iors and decisions, strongly influencing not only organizational culture but also efficiency and effectiveness. As a management practitioner and active professional manager, he identifies key factors, in his opinion, that generate the risk of EC occurring in an organization, with particular emphasis on the concept of interpersonal risk and psychological safety (hereinafter referred to as BP). As a result, directions for possible actions aimed at building a mature culture of failure and success in an organization have been presented. Although the article deals with phenomena strong-ly rooted in the psychosocial space, it should be read in the perspective of management and quality sciences, according to the postulate that in contemporary economic and business realities, it is erroneous and dangerous in management processes to separate systemic aspects from cultural ones.
近年来,越来越多的组织认识到,效率和效力不仅取决于能否获得合格的人员、技术或资本,还取决于一种使员工能够公开、自由地表达意见的组织文化。管理和质量科学领域的研究和观察表明,许多组织都面临着所谓沉默流行病(以下简称EC)的挑战,即员工避免公开表达自己的意见或分享他们的担忧、想法或创新。作者试图将电子商务描述为一种由特定行为和决策产生的现象,它不仅强烈地影响组织文化,而且还影响效率和有效性。作为一名管理实践者和积极的职业经理人,他认为组织中产生电子商务风险的关键因素,特别强调了人际风险和心理安全(以下简称BP)的概念。因此,提出了旨在在组织中建立成熟的失败和成功文化的可能行动的方向。虽然这篇文章处理的现象强烈植根于社会心理空间,但它应该从管理和质量科学的角度来阅读,根据假设,在当代经济和商业现实中,在管理过程中将系统方面与文化方面分开是错误和危险的。
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引用次数: 0
MICRO SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES MULTILATERAL ENTERPRISES FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND FINANCING FOR ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND THE UNITED NATIONS 2030 AGENDA 中小微企业多边企业实现可持续发展目标和联合国2030年议程的外国直接投资和融资
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9609
Unmana Sarangi
The research paper entitled “Micro Small and Medium Enterprises, Multilateral Enterprises, Foreign Direct Investment and Financing for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals and the United Nations 2030 Agenda” reflects the global issues pertaining to the role of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), Multilateral Enterprises, Foreign Direct Investment policies and financing for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the United Nations 2030 Agenda. It dwells into the study of various macro issues and aspects such as relevance, role and contribution of MSMEs to the global economies and the SDGs, background and definition of MSMEs, inter-linkages between the MSMEs and the SDGs, Multilateral Enterprises and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), FDI Policies for Improving the Sustainable Development Impacts of Investment, need of international and national actions to scale up SDG financing, need for scaling up investment in the SDGs and climate action, enhancing international financial architecture.
这份题为《中小微企业、多边企业、实现可持续发展目标和联合国2030年议程的外国直接投资和融资》的研究报告反映了与中小微企业、多边企业、外国直接投资政策和融资对实现可持续发展目标和联合国2030年议程的作用有关的全球问题。本报告将深入研究各种宏观问题和方面,如中小微企业对全球经济和可持续发展目标的相关性、作用和贡献、中小微企业的背景和定义、中小微企业与可持续发展目标之间的相互联系、多边企业与联合国可持续发展目标(SDG)、改善投资可持续发展影响的外国直接投资政策、扩大可持续发展目标融资的国际和国家行动的必要性、需要扩大对可持续发展目标和气候行动的投资,加强国际金融架构。
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引用次数: 0
CHASE CUNNINGHAM „CYBER WARFARE - TRUTH, TACTICS, AND STRATEGIES: STRATEGIC CONCEPTS AND TRUTHS TO HELP YOU AND YOUR ORGANIZATION SURVIVE ON THE BATTLEGROUND OF CYBER WARFARE”, PACKT PUBLISHING 2020. POLISH EDITION HELION SA, GLIWICE, pp.262 蔡斯·坎宁安,《网络战——真相、战术和战略:帮助你和你的组织在网络战战场上生存的战略概念和真相》,2020年出版。波兰版HELION SA, glwice,第262页
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9703
Sylwia Gwoździewicz
The aim of the article is to review the book entitled „Cyber Warfare - Truth, Tactics, and Strategies: Strategic concepts and truths to help you and your organization survive on the battleground of cyber warfare”. The author of the book, Chase Cunningham is an experienced expert in security sciences in the field of cybersecurity, he has participated in various international cyber operations, including: in a United States Navy officer with over 20 years of experience in computer forensics and cyber threat analytic operations. The experience on which he based this book was gained at the headquarters of the NSA, CIA, FBI and other government agencies, where he helped secure, install and use encryption and analytical systems, where he carried out projects to optimize security systems in command and operations centers. The book also does not include reference to the relatively new phenomena based on DeepFake using artificial intelligence and machine learning, which, depending on the goals of cyberattacks and the skills of the aggressor, are used for various cybernetic purposes.
本文的目的是回顾这本名为《网络战——真相、战术和战略:帮助你和你的组织在网络战的战场上生存的战略概念和真相》的书。本书的作者蔡斯·坎宁安是网络安全领域经验丰富的安全科学专家,他曾参与过各种国际网络行动,包括:在美国海军担任军官,拥有20多年的计算机取证和网络威胁分析操作经验。他在国家安全局、中央情报局、联邦调查局和其他政府机构的总部获得了丰富的经验,在那里他帮助保护、安装和使用加密和分析系统,在那里他执行了优化指挥和行动中心安全系统的项目。这本书也没有提到基于DeepFake的相对较新的使用人工智能和机器学习的现象,根据网络攻击的目标和攻击者的技能,这些现象被用于各种控制论目的。
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引用次数: 0
ACTIONS TAKEN TO IMPROVE THE SAFETY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC 在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,为改善地方政府工作人员的安全而采取的行动
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9608
Ewa Jakubiak
On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared a COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the functioning of public administration bodies, business entities and society. In Poland, a ban on public gatherings was introduced, schools were closed, and stay-at-home order was introduced. Some rules, such as distancing, wearing masks and face shields, have effectively prevented the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this article is to discuss the results of the conducted research in the assessment of the employees themselves regarding the measures taken to improve the safety of local government employees in Łomza County during the COVID-19 pandemic.
2020年3月11日,世界卫生组织宣布COVID-19大流行。新冠肺炎大流行严重影响了公共行政机构、企业实体和社会的运作。在波兰,禁止公众集会,学校关闭,并实施了居家令。一些规则,如保持距离,戴口罩和面罩,有效地防止了COVID-19大流行的传播。本文的目的是讨论在COVID-19大流行期间为提高Łomza县地方政府雇员的安全而采取的措施对员工自身进行评估的研究结果。
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引用次数: 0
SIMULATION GAME AS AN EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY PROFESSIONAL TRAINING OF SPECIALISTS PUBLISHING AND PRINTING 模拟游戏作为教育技术专业培训专家出版印刷
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9617
Svitlana Loboda, Svitlana Denysenko
The article deals with the peculiarities of using such an interactive educational technology as a simulation game in the educational process of a higher education institution. Approaches to defining the essence of this technology are generalized. It has been established that simulation games can be used as a pedagogical technology or one of the methods of active learning, in conducting social and psychological training, in solving production, social and psychological problems that a graduate may encounter in his or her professional activity. The classification of educational simulation games is presented. Their didactic potential is determined and possible options for building and structuring simulation games are revealed. The specifics of the use of simulation games in the professional training of bachelors of publishing and printing in higher education are considered. Their use will facilitate the rapid inclusion of students in the model of professional activity, allow them to take on different functional roles, identify the specifics of their characters' activities, interact in a simulated, but as close to real, production process, and most importantly, see and evaluate the final result of their work. The author's electronic resource with methodical instructions on the use of a simulation game. The experience of using the simulation game in the professional training of bachelors of publishing and printing is presented.
本文论述了在高等学校教学过程中运用模拟游戏这一交互式教育技术的特点。概括了定义该技术本质的方法。模拟游戏可以作为一种教学技术或主动学习的方法之一,用于进行社会和心理训练,用于解决毕业生在其专业活动中可能遇到的生产、社会和心理问题。介绍了教育模拟游戏的分类。它们的教学潜力是确定的,并且揭示了构建和构造模拟游戏的可能选择。探讨了模拟游戏在高等教育出版印刷专业本科人才培养中的具体应用。它们的使用将促进学生快速融入专业活动模型,允许他们承担不同的职能角色,识别他们角色活动的细节,在模拟但接近真实的生产过程中进行互动,最重要的是,看到并评估他们工作的最终结果。作者的电子资源与使用模拟游戏的系统说明。介绍了在出版印刷专业本科学生专业培训中运用模拟游戏的体会。
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引用次数: 0
SOME FUNDAMENTALS OF THERAPEUTIC WORK WITH FAMILIESIN THE LIGHT OF THE ASSUMPTIONS OF SOLUTION-FOCUSED THERAPY 在以解决方案为中心的治疗假设下,家庭治疗工作的一些基本原理
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9606
Joanna Łukjaniuk
The author, adressing one of the most popular therapeutic methods nowadays: short-term solu-tion-focused therapy (TSR; Brief Solution Focused Therapy, BSFT), shares her experience of appli-cation of the key rules of BSFT in the work of the "Jest Czas" Children and Youth Support Centre in Płock in the scope of shaping dialogue skills in the family and therapist's communication with its members, particularly in the context of cooperation with the school. She emphasises that a distinc-tive feature of BSFT is that the therapist does not analyse the reported problem in the first place, does not focus on the diagnosis and the patient's past, does not want to be just a guidance-giving expert, but works mainly on the "client's resources" (predispositions, skills, meaningful feelings, proper behaviours) that have proven themselves to function in the client's life. She further outlines five rules of BSFT therapeutic work, completed and reinterpreted in the centre she leads. The author underlines that in complementing these rules, the Płock centre also uses a scenario devel-oped by Maurice Berger, a French specialist in a child and family psychology, creator of the model of "therapeutic interviews with the family" (entretiens thérapeutiques avec la famille) and emphasis-es harmonising the philosophical foundation of BSFT (constructivism, postmodernism, narra-tivism) with the stream of Christian personalism.
作者,解决当今最流行的治疗方法之一:短期解决焦点疗法(TSR;简解疗法(简称简解疗法)分享了她在“Jest Czas”儿童及青少年支援中心(Płock)的工作中应用简解疗法的主要规则的经验,包括在家庭和治疗师与成员的沟通中塑造对话技巧,特别是在与学校合作的背景下。她强调,BSFT的一个显著特征是,治疗师不首先分析所报告的问题,不关注诊断和病人的过去,不只是想成为一个提供指导的专家,而是主要致力于“来访者的资源”(倾向、技能、有意义的感觉、适当的行为),这些资源已被证明在来访者的生活中发挥了作用。她进一步概述了BSFT治疗工作的五条规则,在她领导的中心完成并重新解释。作者强调,在补充这些规则的同时,Płock中心还使用了法国儿童和家庭心理学专家莫里斯·伯杰(Maurice Berger)开发的一个场景,他是“家庭治疗性访谈”模式的创造者,并强调协调BSFT(建构主义、后现代主义、叙事行动主义)的哲学基础与基督教人格主义的潮流。
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引用次数: 0
IMPACT OF INDUSTRY 4.0 ON EMPLOYEES IN INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES - INSIGHTS FROM THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE, VIET NAM 工业4.0对工业企业员工的影响——来自越南太原省的见解
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9700
Phung Tran My Hanh, Nguyen Thi Thanh Quy, Nguyen Thi Oanh
Thai Nguyen is a Northern midland and mountainous province in Vietnam, with 24.37% of Industrial enterprises makes significant contribution to developing the socio-economic in Vietnam. Industry 4.0 has both positive and negative impacts on employees in Thai Nguyen Industrial enterprises. This paper examines the impacts of Industry 4.0 on employees in Industry enterprises by using secondary data during time period 2013 – 2020. The results show that in the Industrial Revolution 4.0, labors in Thai Nguyen’s Industrial enterprises has many new job opportunities, the chance improving their qualifications, skills and inproving labor productivity. But, the labors had many challenges such as increasing in inequality between groups of labors at different levels; creating a favorable business environment, ensuring the harmony of interests for service business models, traditional service,...
太原是越南北部中部和山区省份,工业企业占24.37%,为越南社会经济发展做出了重要贡献。工业4.0对太原工业企业的员工既有积极的影响,也有消极的影响。本文利用2013 - 2020年的二次数据,考察了工业4.0对工业企业员工的影响。结果表明,在工业革命4.0中,太原工业企业的劳动力有许多新的就业机会,有机会提高他们的资格,技能和提高劳动生产率。但是,劳动者面临着诸多挑战,如不同层次劳动者群体之间的不平等日益加剧;营造良好的营商环境,确保服务商业模式、传统服务、…
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引用次数: 0
AN EXAMINATION OF MENTAL CONCEPT AND THE PHILOSOPHICAL PROBLEMS RELATING TO: THOUGHT, EMOTIONS, PERCEPTIONS AND BEHAVIOR, SENSATION, MEMORY AND IMAGINATION, PERSONAL IDENTITY, FREEWILL AND DETERMINATION VIS--VIS GOTTFRIED WILHELM VON LEIBNIZ IMMATERIAL SUBSTANCE CALLED “THE MONADS”. 对精神概念和哲学问题的考察:思想,情感,感知和行为,感觉,记忆和想象,个人身份,自由意志和决心,面对被称为“单子”的非物质实体。
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0053.9701
Lambert Peter Ukanga, George Yimini
Human thought from one angle is a product of natural phenomenon while from other angles is beyond natural. Some are said to be products of biological, super-natural and the rest of them. But for Leibniz it is a product of immaterial substance which is harmonious in natural. This paper therefore, is an attempt to understand theses mental concept and philosophical problems with an eye of Leibniz immaterial substance called “The Monads”
人的思想从一个角度看是自然现象的产物,从另一个角度看是超越自然的。有些被认为是生物的、超自然的和其他的产物。但对莱布尼茨来说,它是自然和谐的非物质物质的产物。因此,本文试图从莱布尼茨的非物质实体即单子的角度来理解这些心理概念和哲学问题
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of New Economics and Social Sciences
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