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Does Investors’ Online Public Opinion Divergence Increase the Trading Volume? Evidence from the CSI 300 Index Constituents 投资者的网络舆情分歧会增加交易量吗?来自沪深 300 指数成分股的证据
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17080316
Zihuang Huang, Qing Xu, Xinyu Wang
We collected online public opinions on the CSI 300 index constituents and investigated the different impacts of online public opinion divergence on trading volume. Here, we find that online public opinions are helpful in improving the trading volume, but the online public opinion divergence of investors reduces the expected trading volume. In particular, non-financial and mid-cap stocks with high levels of discussion are more significantly influenced by online public opinion divergence. Through the classification of investors’ influence levels, we find that the divergence among high-level investors increases the trading volume, while the divergence among low-level investors exacerbates the decrease in trading volume. A reduction in divergence for both levels will have a greater impact. We believe that attention should be paid to regulating and guiding the online public opinions of “newcomers”. This will not only improve the quality of Guba but also contribute to the steady development of the Chinese stock market.
我们收集了沪深 300 指数成份股的网络舆情,并研究了网络舆情分歧对交易量的不同影响。我们发现,网络舆情有助于提高交易量,但投资者的网络舆情分歧会降低预期交易量。其中,讨论度较高的非金融类股票和中盘股股票受网络舆情分化的影响更为明显。通过对投资者影响程度的划分,我们发现高层次投资者的分歧会增加交易量,而低层次投资者的分歧会加剧交易量的减少。如果这两个层次的分歧都减少,则会产生更大的影响。我们认为,应重视对 "新人 "网络舆论的规范和引导。这不仅能提高 "姑婆 "的素质,也有利于中国股市的稳定发展。
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引用次数: 0
Unveiling the Path to Mobile Payment Adoption: Insights from Thai Consumers 揭开移动支付的应用之路:泰国消费者的见解
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17080315
Chuleeporn Changchit, Robert Cutshall, Long Pham
Mobile payment, replacing traditional methods like cash and cards, offers users convenience and accessibility, benefiting individuals, businesses, and governments. However, most research on mobile payment adoption has primarily focused on developed countries, leaving a gap in understanding the adoption factors in developing nations. This study addresses this gap by investigating the determinants of mobile payment adoption in Thailand, an emerging economy experiencing significant smartphone adoption and e-commerce growth. Through a quantitative approach and a survey of 475 Thai consumers, this research applies an extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model as a theoretical foundation to examine Thai consumers’ mobile payment adoption. Data analysis using SPSS 28.0 and AMOS 28.0 identifies key factors influencing Thai consumers to adopt mobile payment. By offering a comprehensive research model and considering evolving smartphone technology, this study aims to guide policymakers and stakeholders in promoting mobile payment adoption, ultimately enhancing Thailand’s economic development and tourism industry.
移动支付取代了现金和银行卡等传统方式,为用户提供了便利和可及性,使个人、企业和政府受益。然而,大多数关于移动支付应用的研究主要集中在发达国家,对发展中国家的应用因素了解还存在差距。泰国是一个新兴经济体,智能手机的采用和电子商务的发展势头迅猛,本研究通过调查泰国采用移动支付的决定因素,填补了这一空白。通过定量方法和对 475 名泰国消费者的调查,本研究以扩展的 "技术接受与使用统一理论"(UTAUT)模型为理论基础,研究泰国消费者采用移动支付的情况。通过使用 SPSS 28.0 和 AMOS 28.0 进行数据分析,找出了影响泰国消费者采用移动支付的关键因素。通过提供一个全面的研究模型并考虑到不断发展的智能手机技术,本研究旨在指导政策制定者和利益相关者促进移动支付的采用,最终促进泰国的经济发展和旅游业。
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引用次数: 0
Potential Predictors of Psychologically Based Stock Price Movements 基于心理的股价波动潜在预测因素
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17080312
Robert East, Malcolm Wright
Investment in stocks is increasingly dependent on artificial intelligence (AI), but the psychological and social factors that affect stock prices may not be fully covered by the measures currently used in AI training. Here, we search for additional measures that may improve AI predictions. We start by reviewing stock price movements that appear to be affected by social and psychological factors, drawing on stock market behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. A review of processes that are likely to produce such stock market movements follows: the disposition effect, momentum, and the response to information. These processes are then explained by regression to the mean, negativity bias, the availability mechanism, and information diffusion. Taking account of these processes and drawing on the consumer behaviour literature, we identify three factors which may not be covered by current AI training data that could affect stock prices: publicity in relation to capitalization, stock-holding penetration in relation to capitalization, and changes in the penetration of stock holding.
股票投资越来越依赖于人工智能(AI),但目前用于人工智能训练的措施可能无法完全涵盖影响股票价格的心理和社会因素。在此,我们将寻找可以改进人工智能预测的其他措施。我们首先回顾了似乎受社会和心理因素影响的股票价格走势,并借鉴了 COVID-19 大流行期间的股市行为。随后回顾了可能产生此类股市波动的过程:处置效应、动量和对信息的反应。然后用均值回归、消极偏差、可获得性机制和信息扩散来解释这些过程。考虑到这些过程,并借鉴消费者行为文献,我们确定了当前人工智能训练数据可能未涵盖的三个可能影响股票价格的因素:与资本化相关的宣传、与资本化相关的股票持有渗透率以及股票持有渗透率的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Personal Networks, Board Structures and Corporate Fraud in Japan 日本的个人关系网、董事会结构和公司欺诈行为
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17080314
Takeshi Osada, David Vera, Taketoshi Hashimoto
We examine the impact of corporate governance and personal networks on corporate fraud in Japanese companies, using panel logit and Cox proportional hazard models to analyze fraud occurrence and detection. This study focuses on the effects of Japan’s recent corporate governance reform and explores the unique influence of personal networks. Our key findings indicate that recent changes in corporate governance in Japan have been effective in preventing the occurrence of fraud and accelerating its detection. Additionally, stronger personal networks among board members help prevent fraud concealment, highlighting cultural differences in the effectiveness of personal networks in corporate governance compared to findings from Europe and the US.
我们研究了公司治理和个人网络对日本公司欺诈行为的影响,使用面板对数模型和考克斯比例危险模型分析了欺诈行为的发生和发现。本研究重点关注日本近期公司治理改革的效果,并探讨了个人网络的独特影响。我们的主要研究结果表明,日本最近的公司治理改革有效地防止了欺诈的发生,并加速了欺诈的发现。此外,董事会成员之间更强大的人际网络有助于防止欺诈行为的隐瞒,与欧洲和美国的研究结果相比,凸显了人际网络在公司治理有效性方面的文化差异。
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引用次数: 0
Does Managerial Overconfidence Change with Market Conditions? Risk Management for Financial Institutions 管理者的过度自信会随市场条件而改变吗?金融机构的风险管理
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17080313
Jan P. Voon, Wai Lan Victoria Yeung, Sze Nam Chan
Overconfidence (hubris or overestimation of one’s ability to perform) has been viewed in the finance literature as a character trait that is stable over time, e.g., assuming that if a manager is overconfident, he/she is overconfident all the time. In this paper, we aim to show that managerial overconfidence can be state-contingent, i.e., the level of managerial overconfidence could be influenced by an external economic shock such as the global financial crisis in 2008. A novelty of this paper is to provide evidence for and application of the concept of state-based managerial overconfidence, which is new in the finance literature. Two empirical studies were reported. In the first study (Study 1), we analyzed real market data by linear regression. We found that managerial overconfidence could vary according to changes in the state of the macroeconomy or tightening of corporate governance policies. In the second study (Study 2), we conducted a lab experiment simulating how external manipulations could alter participants’ confidence level. Both our empirical studies provide strong evidence of state-contingent overconfidence by Student’s t-test and contribute to the current finance literature, which assumes overconfidence as a personality trait. Our findings have important practical implications for the credit market. According to the state-contingent overconfidence hypothesis, creditors might reduce the loan amount or the loan duration (or other loan contract terms) too excessively by more than the efficient level during an economic downturn if the offsetting effect of state-contingent overconfidence is ignored.
在金融文献中,过度自信(狂妄自大或高估自己的能力)一直被视为一种随时间而稳定的性格特征,例如,假定如果一个管理者过度自信,那么他/她在任何时候都是过度自信的。在本文中,我们旨在说明管理者的过度自信可能是受状态影响的,即管理者的过度自信水平可能受外部经济冲击(如 2008 年的全球金融危机)的影响。本文的新颖之处在于为基于状态的管理者过度自信这一概念提供证据并加以应用,这在金融学文献中尚属首次。本文报告了两项实证研究。在第一项研究(研究 1)中,我们通过线性回归分析了真实市场数据。我们发现,管理者的过度自信会随着宏观经济状况的变化或公司治理政策的收紧而变化。在第二项研究(研究 2)中,我们进行了一项实验室实验,模拟外部操纵如何改变参与者的信心水平。通过学生 t 检验,我们的两项实证研究都提供了状态相关性过度自信的有力证据,并对当前将过度自信假定为一种人格特质的金融文献做出了贡献。我们的研究结果对信贷市场具有重要的现实意义。根据状态偶合型过度自信假说,如果忽略状态偶合型过度自信的抵消效应,那么在经济衰退期间,信贷员可能会过度降低贷款额度或贷款期限(或其他贷款合同条款),降低幅度超过有效水平。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate Cash Holdings and Investment Efficiency: Do Women Directors and Financial Crisis Matter? 公司现金控股与投资效率:女董事和金融危机重要吗?
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17070311
Ardianto Ardianto, Noor Adwa Sulaiman
This study investigates the relationship between corporate cash holdings and investment efficiency, with a focus on how COVID-19 and the presence of women directors may influence this relationship. Using data from Indonesian public companies during the COVID-19 period, comprising 2350 firm-year observations, we employ fixed-effect regression models with industry and year controls to test our hypotheses. Robustness and endogeneity tests are conducted to ensure the reliability of our findings. Our research reveals that companies with larger cash reserves tend to experience decreased investment efficiency during the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, the negative impact of substantial cash reserves on investment efficiency is exacerbated by the presence of female directors on the board. However, our findings also suggest that female directors can mitigate the adverse effects of excessive cash reserves on a company’s investment efficiency, particularly during unforeseen economic challenges such as the pandemic.
本研究调查了公司现金持有量与投资效率之间的关系,重点关注 COVID-19 和女性董事的存在如何影响这种关系。我们利用 COVID-19 期间印尼上市公司的数据(包括 2350 个公司年观察值),采用带有行业和年份控制的固定效应回归模型来检验我们的假设。我们还进行了稳健性和内生性检验,以确保研究结果的可靠性。我们的研究发现,在 COVID-19 危机期间,现金储备较多的公司往往会出现投资效率下降的情况。此外,董事会中女性董事的存在加剧了大量现金储备对投资效率的负面影响。不过,我们的研究结果也表明,女性董事可以减轻过多现金储备对公司投资效率的不利影响,尤其是在大流行病等不可预见的经济挑战期间。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of Optimal Hedge Ratio: A Wild Bootstrap Approach 最佳对冲比率的估算:野性引导法
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17070310
Phong Minh Nguyen, Darren Henry, Jae H. Kim, Sisira Colombage
This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the minimum variance hedge ratio (MVHR) based on the wild bootstrap and evaluates the approach using a spectrum of conservative to aggressive alternative hedging strategies associated with the percentiles of the MVHR’s bootstrap distribution. This approach is suggested to be more informative and effective relative to the conventional method of hedging solely based on a single-point estimate. Furthermore, the percentile-based MVHRs are robust to influential outliers, non-normality, and unknown forms of heteroskedasticity. The bootstrap percentile-based hedging strategies’ effectiveness is compared with those from the naïve method and the asymmetric DCC-GARCH model for a range of financial assets and commodities. The bootstrap percentile-based hedging technique is identified to outperform its alternatives in terms of hedging effectiveness, downside risk, and return variability, suggesting its superiority to other methods in both the literature and in practice.
本文提出了一种基于自举法估算最小方差对冲比率(MVHR)的新方法,并使用与 MVHR 的自举分布百分位数相关的从保守到激进的替代对冲策略对该方法进行了评估。与传统的仅基于单点估算的对冲方法相比,这种方法信息量更大、更有效。此外,基于百分位数的 MVHR 对有影响的离群值、非正态性和未知形式的异方差具有稳健性。在一系列金融资产和商品中,比较了基于自举百分位数的对冲策略与天真方法和非对称 DCC-GARCH 模型的有效性。结果表明,基于自举百分位数的套期保值技术在套期保值效果、下行风险和收益变异性方面都优于其他方法,这表明它在文献和实践中都优于其他方法。
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引用次数: 0
Factors Influencing Sustainable Poverty Reduction: A Systematic Review of the Literature with a Microfinance Perspective 影响可持续减贫的因素:从小额信贷角度系统回顾相关文献
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17070309
Salvador Fonseca, A. Moreira, Jorge Mota
This research examined factors that help microfinance achieve sustained poverty reduction based on a systematic literature review (SLR). A search was conducted on the SCOPUS database up to December 2023. After analyzing hundreds of documents, a subset of 30 articles was subject to in-depth analysis, exploring factors and corresponding measurement indicators for sustainable poverty reduction in microfinance contexts. This article emphasizes that sustained poverty reduction is a gradual process requiring ongoing efforts from both Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) and governments. Two key success factors are empowering borrowers and ensuring the microfinance programs themselves are profitable. When implemented in an integrated and coordinated manner, these factors can empower individuals to escape poverty by fostering self-employment and income generation, ultimately reducing dependence on external support. Additionally, the study highlights the role of personality traits in influencing long-term entrepreneurial success. The findings provide valuable tools for MFIs and policymakers. MFIs gain a practical framework to guide their interventions towards sustained poverty reduction. Policymakers can leverage the identified factors and indicators when designing and implementing microfinance policies with a long-term focus on poverty alleviation. This study breaks new ground by presenting an operational framework that categorizes and integrates two critical factor groups: empowerment and beneficiary profitability. Furthermore, it links these factors to corresponding measurement indicators within a unified framework, enabling a more holistic assessment of poverty reduction efforts.
本研究以系统文献综述(SLR)为基础,探讨了有助于小额信贷实现持续减贫的因素。在 SCOPUS 数据库中进行了搜索,搜索时间截至 2023 年 12 月。在分析了数百篇文献后,对其中的 30 篇文章进行了深入分析,探讨了小额信贷背景下可持续减贫的因素和相应的衡量指标。本文强调,持续减贫是一个渐进的过程,需要小额信贷机构(MFI)和政府的不断努力。成功的两个关键因素是增强借款人的能力和确保小额信贷项目本身有利可图。如果以综合协调的方式实施,这些因素可以通过促进自营职业和创收,增强个人摆脱贫困的能力,最终减少对外部支持的依赖。此外,研究还强调了人格特质在影响长期创业成功方面的作用。研究结果为小额贷款机构和政策制定者提供了宝贵的工具。小额贷款机构可以获得一个实用的框架,指导其为实现持续减贫而采取的干预措施。政策制定者在设计和实施以长期减贫为重点的小额信贷政策时,可以利用已确定的因素和指标。本研究开创性地提出了一个操作框架,对两个关键因素组进行了分类和整合:赋权和受益人盈利能力。此外,它还将这些因素与统一框架内的相应衡量指标联系起来,从而能够对减贫工作进行更全面的评估。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating the Storm: How Economic Uncertainty Shapes Audit Quality in BRICS Nations Amid CEO Power Dynamics 驾驭风暴:经济不确定性如何影响金砖国家首席执行官权力动态中的审计质量
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17070307
Antonios Persakis, Ioannis Tsakalos
This study investigates the association between economic uncertainty and audit quality in the BRICS nations, examining both input-based (e.g., audit fees, auditor tenure) and output-based (e.g., restatements, total accruals) measures of audit quality. Utilizing a dataset of 83,511 firm-year observations from 1995–2022, it reveals a significant negative impact of economic uncertainty on audit quality. Additionally, the research explores the moderating role of CEO power, employing principal component analysis to merge various indicators of CEO influence. Findings indicate that powerful CEOs can mitigate the adverse effects of economic uncertainty on audit quality, suggesting a U-shaped relationship between CEO power and audit quality. Methodologically robust, employing techniques like two-stage least squares (2SLS) and two-stage system generalized method of moments (system GMM) to address endogeneity, the study offers a comprehensive analysis of audit quality in the context of economic fluctuations and corporate governance, contributing significantly to the understanding of these dynamics in emerging economies, particularly in the diverse and influential BRICS nations. This study’s findings have significant implications for stakeholders and policymakers, providing insights that can inform policy decisions and enhance corporate governance frameworks.
本研究调查了金砖五国的经济不确定性与审计质量之间的关系,研究了审计质量的投入型(如审计费用、审计师任期)和产出型(如重报、应计总额)衡量标准。研究利用 1995-2022 年间 83,511 个公司年观测数据集,揭示了经济不确定性对审计质量的显著负面影响。此外,研究还探讨了首席执行官权力的调节作用,采用主成分分析法合并了首席执行官影响力的各种指标。研究结果表明,强大的首席执行官可以减轻经济不确定性对审计质量的不利影响,这表明首席执行官权力与审计质量之间存在 U 型关系。本研究采用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)和两阶段系统广义矩法(system GMM)等技术来解决内生性问题,方法稳健,在经济波动和公司治理的背景下对审计质量进行了全面分析,极大地促进了人们对新兴经济体,尤其是多样化且具有影响力的金砖国家的这些动态的理解。本研究的发现对利益相关者和政策制定者具有重要意义,提供的见解可为政策决策提供依据并加强公司治理框架。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate Finance and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Practices 企业财务与环境、社会和治理 (ESG) 实践
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17070308
Ș. C. Gherghina
As global warming progresses, implementing green finance to redirect resources into sustainable initiatives has emerged as a crucial strategy for governments to develop financial systems that are carbon-free, green, and sustainable (Jin et al [...]
随着全球变暖的加剧,实施绿色金融,将资源转用于可持续举措,已成为各国政府发展无碳、绿色和可持续金融体系的重要战略(Jin et al [...]
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Risk and Financial Management
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