Contemporary Economic Policy最新文献

We expand previous U.S. state-level research on the relationship between pro-market institutions and labor market outcomes by examining this relationship at the U.S. metropolitan-area level. Using panel data for 1992–2012 in a fixed-effects model, we investigate the effect of pro-market institutions on the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, employment-population ratio, and employment growth across 366 U.S. metropolitan areas. The results indicate that pro-market institutions are associated with a lower unemployment rate, higher employment-population ratio, and faster employment growth. These results suggest that local-area policies are important for achieving favorable labor market conditions at the local level.

We find that the determinants of China's outbound M&As depart dramatically from the literature. First, China's M&A volume with a target country is not affected by geographic distance, currency appreciation, or stock market return. Second, Chinese acquirers pick an unconventional uphill battle by primarily targeting countries with greater cultural distance, stronger investor protection laws, and higher per capita income. We also document that China's outbound M&As have a higher than normal percentage of deals being partial acquisitions. We argue that emerging markets can differ remarkably from developed countries in the considerations and modes of outbound M&As.

Popular discussion presumes minimum wage increases primarily drive wage gains for minimum wage workers. We investigate this presumption using the Current Population Survey to assess the fraction of minimum wage workers receiving raises after 12 months. This fraction is moderately higher following state minimum wage increases, and positively correlated with several measures of labor market tightness. Finally, wage gains frequently follow industry and/or occupation switches, highlighting the importance of career progression for earnings growth among entry-level workers. Career progression and increases in labor demand rather than minimum wage increases appear to drive most wage gains for minimum wage workers.

Most states now legally mandate providers to access the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP) database before prescribing controlled substances like opioids. We exploit variation in the adoption of these “must access” mandates between 2010 and 2017 to evaluate their impact on prescribing behavior. We find that counties in “must access” PDMP states have 5.5 fewer retail opioid prescriptions per 100 persons compared to counties in “voluntary access” PDMP states. We find evidence of geographic spillovers in opioid prescribing behavior. Our results underscore the importance recognizing the potential for cross-border shopping when designing interventions to combat opioid misuse.

This paper uses China's public companies to test the influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate total factor productivity. The study finds that fiscal policy uncertainty has a negative impact on the total factor productivity, and the effect of conservative tax avoidance, a mediating variable between the two, is found more significant for non-state-owned and non-recession-stage enterprises. The study further finds that facing fiscal policy uncertainty, companies reduce R&D investment, which will deteriorate productivity. The overall results show that if the government maintains relatively stable fiscal policies, it will positively improve corporate total factor productivity, even in a longer period.

We utilize data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to study how the earnings losses experienced by displaced workers vary in times of economic crisis. Relative to an economy that operates at full potential, our results show that a 1% increase in the real gross domestic product gap observed at the time of displacement is associated with an additional increase in the estimated earnings losses experienced by displaced workers of approximately 4.3% in the year immediately following displacement, and with similar increases in the estimated losses for up to 5 years after.

School-shootings can enormously impact U.S. gun policy, but very little is known about the community mental health impact of school-shootings. We used difference-in-differences and event study analyses to compare stress-related ED visits in zip-codes within 5 miles (exposed) and in zip-codes 10–15 miles from (control) school-shootings before and after school-shootings using data from California, 2005–2011. School-shootings and fatal school-shootings were associated with annual increases of 0.7 and 1.5 stress-related ED visits per 1000 people, increases of 7% and 14%, respectively, compared to pre-shooting utilization. These previously unmeasured costs of school-shootings reinforce calls to prevent gun violence, especially in schools.

Measuring and predicting compliance with tax obligations is an important but challenging task. Survey data from California smokers show that several forms of tax avoidance and evasion were common. The analysis shows that 43% of smokers avoided taxes by purchasing cigarettes from out-of-state sources in the past year, 15% admitted to evading taxes through cross-border purchases, and 26% reported purchasing likely or certainly untaxed cigarettes in the state in the past month. Attitudinal factors related to tax morale explain much more of the variance in compliance rates than demographic or law-and-economics factors. The implications for policy are discussed.

Studying a relatively under-researched aspect in economics, this paper examines the nexus between corruption and academic freedom. Our main hypothesis is that greater corruption undermines academic freedom and we test this hypothesis using data for 104 nations from 2012 to 2018. Our results support the main hypothesis, and this finding also generally holds across alternative aspects of academic freedom. Another contribution of this work lies in dissecting the direct and indirect (through corruption) effects of various drivers of academic freedom. Finally, additional insights are gained by considering different dimensions of academic freedom and how they are impacted by corruption.

Social distancing is important to slow the community spread of infectious disease, but it creates enormous economic and social cost. Thus, it is important to quantify the benefits of different measures. We study the ban of mass gatherings, an intervention with comparably low cost. We exploit exogenous variation in the number of National Basketball Association and National Hockey League games, which arises due to the leagues' predetermined schedules, and the sudden suspension of the 2019–2020 seasons. We find that, among clusters of counties that are adjacent to sports venues, each additional mass gathering increased the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths by 10.3%.