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Perception towards government advisory, perceived risk and willingness to invest in cryptocurrency 对政府咨询的看法、认知风险和投资加密货币的意愿
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106208
Shaista Wasiuzzaman , Ak Md Saiful Luqman Pg Hj Ahmad
The aim of this study is to investigate the link between investor perception regarding government advisories on cryptocurrencies, their perceived risk of cryptocurrencies and their willingness to invest in cryptocurrencies. The link is examined via Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) using 212 responses gathered from a survey questionnaire distributed to groups related to cryptocurrency investment in social media platforms over a period of around four months. It is found that the investor’s perception regarding government advisories on cryptocurrencies, which are cautionary in nature, have a significant negative impact on their perception of the risk of cryptocurrencies. Perception regarding government advisories reduces the willingness to invest in cryptocurrencies. However, it is also found that perceived risk does not have any significant influence on the willingness to invest in cryptocurrencies, indicating that although risk perception is heightened as a result of the cautionary government advise, this does not result in a significant reduction in the willingness to invest in cryptocurrencies. Hence, perceived risk does not play a significant mediating role in influencing the effect government advisories have on the willingness to invest in cryptocurrencies.
本研究旨在调查投资者对政府有关加密货币的建议的看法、他们对加密货币的风险认知以及他们投资加密货币的意愿之间的联系。我们通过偏最小二乘法-结构方程建模(PLS-SEM),利用在社交媒体平台上向加密货币投资相关群体发放的调查问卷中收集到的 212 份回复,历时约四个月,对两者之间的联系进行了研究。结果发现,投资者对政府关于加密货币的警告性建议的认知,对他们对加密货币风险的认知有显著的负面影响。对政府建议的认知降低了投资加密货币的意愿。然而,研究还发现,风险感知对投资加密货币的意愿没有任何显著影响,这表明尽管政府的警示性建议会提高风险感知,但这并不会导致投资加密货币的意愿显著下降。因此,在影响政府建议对加密货币投资意愿的影响方面,风险感知并没有发挥重要的中介作用。
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引用次数: 0
Relative impact of digital and traditional financial inclusion on financial resilience: Evidence from 13 emerging countries 数字和传统普惠金融对金融韧性的相对影响:来自13个新兴国家的证据
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106233
Rahul Verma, Devlina Chatterjee
We aim to understand the relative impact of traditional financial inclusion (FI) and digital financial inclusion (DFI) on perceived financial resilience (FR). We use Global Findex data for the years 2014 and 2021. Our sample includes 33933 individuals from 13 emerging economies. FI indicators include bank account ownership, saving, borrowing, payments and receipts. DFI indicators include digital borrowing, receipts and payments. Socio-economic and demographic factors such as age, gender, education and income, and informal financial activities are included as control variables. To address endogeneity issues, we include instrumental variables for each FI and DFI indicator. Individuals from Argentina, Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa and Thailand report higher levels of FI and DFI, while those from Egypt, India, Mexico and the Philippines report low levels. Estimated coefficients from bi-probit models indicate that “savings” had the largest positive impact on FR. Two FI indicators “bank account ownership” and “making payments”, and one DFI indicator “digital payments” had smaller and similar effect sizes. Digital borrowing had a small effect while digital receipts had no effect on FR. Our results indicate that having access to savings plays a larger role in improving individual financial resilience compared to other indicators. Policy implications are discussed.
我们的目标是了解传统普惠金融(FI)和数字普惠金融(DFI)对感知金融弹性(FR)的相对影响。我们使用的是2014年和2021年的全球Findex数据。我们的样本包括来自13个新兴经济体的33933个人。金融融通指标包括银行账户所有权、储蓄、借贷、支付和收入。DFI指标包括数字借贷、收入和支付。社会经济和人口因素,如年龄、性别、教育和收入,以及非正式的金融活动,都被纳入控制变量。为了解决内生性问题,我们为每个FI和DFI指标包括工具变量。来自阿根廷、巴西、中国、俄罗斯、南非和泰国的个人报告FI和DFI水平较高,而来自埃及、印度、墨西哥和菲律宾的个人报告FI和DFI水平较低。双概率模型的估计系数表明,“储蓄”对金融服务的积极影响最大。金融服务的两个指标“银行账户所有权”和“支付”,以及一个DFI指标“数字支付”的影响规模较小,但效果相似。数字借贷的影响很小,而数字收入对FR没有影响。我们的研究结果表明,与其他指标相比,获得储蓄在提高个人财务弹性方面发挥着更大的作用。讨论了政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Debt and debt tax benefit: Evidence from Indonesia debt-to-equity cap reform 债务和债务税益:印尼债转股上限改革的证据
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106217
Timbul Parasian Hutahean , Wawan Hermawan , Bayu Kharisma , Alfiah Hasanah
This study scrutinizes the effects of Indonesia’s 2016 debt-to-equity cap reform (thin capitalization rule) on capital structure, highlighting the role of debt tax benefits. The reform curtails debt tax benefits and furnishes a quasi-experimental setting, allowing a comparison between firms affected by the reform and those unaffected. Focusing on private firms and employing an entropy balancing weighted difference-in-difference approach, we elucidate that the reform results in a substantial 9.7 percentage point reduction in the debt ratio and a 5.3 percentage point increase in the stock ratio. Additionally, utilizing a pseudo tax cut reform framework combined with an isolated impact of the zero marginal debt tax benefit, we identify an implied tax elasticity of debt around 0.88, contributing to the observed decline in the debt ratio. Notably, smaller firms exhibit a more pronounced response, and the stock ratio undergoes a significant metamorphosis, suggesting the need for nuanced policy adjustments. Overall, the study underscores the profound influence of debt tax benefits in shaping corporate financing decisions.
本研究仔细研究了印度尼西亚 2016 年债务权益上限改革(薄资本化规则)对资本结构的影响,强调了债务税收优惠的作用。改革削减了债务税收优惠,提供了一个准实验环境,允许对受改革影响的企业和未受影响的企业进行比较。我们以私营企业为重点,采用熵平衡加权差分法,阐明了改革导致负债率大幅下降 9.7 个百分点,股票比率上升 5.3 个百分点。此外,利用伪减税改革框架和零边际债务税收优惠的孤立影响,我们发现债务的隐含税收弹性约为 0.88,这也是观察到的债务比率下降的原因。值得注意的是,规模较小的企业表现出更明显的反应,存货比率也发生了显著变化,这表明有必要进行细致的政策调整。总之,本研究强调了债务税收优惠对企业融资决策的深刻影响。
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引用次数: 0
Banking sustainability in a large emerging economy: Focus on Brazilian banks 大型新兴经济体银行业的可持续性:聚焦巴西银行
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106207
Claudio Oliveira de Moraes , Leonardo Vieira Cunha , Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro
This study investigates the exposure of Brazilian banks to sectors with a higher sensitivity to climate-related risks. For this purpose, by aligning the novel Sectoral Environmental Risk Index with the International Finance Corporation’s methodology, this research empirically analyzes more than 90 % of Brazilian banks’ credit data. The main objective is to determine whether Brazilian banks expand their portfolios toward environmentally friendly sectors. Based on the findings, there is a positive association between growth credit and portfolios in such sectors, with a persistent effect over time. The results also provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to foster sustainable finance practices by challenging the access to credit for polluting economic sectors.
本研究调查了巴西银行对气候相关风险敏感度较高的行业的风险敞口。为此,本研究将新颖的行业环境风险指数与国际金融公司的方法相结合,对超过 90% 的巴西银行信贷数据进行了实证分析。主要目的是确定巴西银行是否将其投资组合扩展到环境友好型行业。根据研究结果,增长信贷与此类行业的投资组合之间存在正相关,并且随着时间的推移会产生持续影响。研究结果还为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了有价值的见解,这些政策制定者和利益相关者旨在通过挑战污染性经济部门获得信贷的机会来促进可持续金融实践。
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引用次数: 0
Panic herding: Analysts' COVID-19 experiences and the interpretation of earnings news 恐慌羊群:分析师的 COVID-19 经验与盈利新闻解读
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106206
Matteo Vacca
This paper examines how local experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic affect sell- side analysts’ interpretation of earnings news. By exploiting the variation in the intensity and timing of local outbreaks, I show that analysts who are more exposed to the virus tend to herd more closely with the consensus forecast. However, I find no evidence of increases in forecast pessimism. The data are consistent with the intensity of exposure to the pandemic having a first-order effect on analysts’ risk attitudes, rather than on the bias of their stated expectations.
本文研究了当地 COVID-19 大流行的经历如何影响卖方分析师对盈利新闻的解读。通过利用当地疫情爆发强度和时间的变化,我发现受病毒影响较大的分析师往往更倾向于与一致预测保持一致。但是,我没有发现预测悲观情绪上升的证据。这些数据表明,疫情爆发的强度对分析师的风险态度有一阶影响,而不是对他们的预期偏差有一阶影响。
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引用次数: 0
Inflation targeting and output stabilization in an estimated monetary model 估计货币模型中的通货膨胀目标和产出稳定
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106209
Konstantin Platonov , Amir Goren
This paper studies determinacy conditions in a monetary model with an interest rate rule. In addition to the inflation rate as an argument of the policy rule, we introduce a second argument: output, a case empirically relevant but overlooked in the existing literature on monetary models with flexible prices. Firstly, we estimate a model with money in utility and the production function. We find that an aggressive response to inflation does not necessarily guarantee determinacy anymore. Secondly, we compare monetary policy in the pre-Volcker era and the post-Volcker era. We find that, after the appointment of Paul Volcker, the Federal Reserve started to respond more aggressively to inflation and less aggressively to output. Indeterminacy is pervasive: the equilibrium is indeterminate in both sub-samples. Thirdly, we estimate the impulse response functions. We find that monetary shocks, sunspot inflation shocks, and productivity shocks have long-lasting effects on inflation, output, and interest rates.
本文研究了利率规则货币模型中的确定性条件。除了将通胀率作为政策规则的一个参数外,我们还引入了第二个参数:产出,这是一个与经验相关的案例,但在现有关于灵活价格货币模型的文献中却被忽视了。首先,我们估计了一个在效用和生产函数中包含货币的模型。我们发现,积极应对通胀并不一定能保证确定性。其次,我们比较了前沃尔克时代和后沃尔克时代的货币政策。我们发现,在保罗-沃尔克上任后,美联储开始更积极地应对通胀,而不那么积极地应对产出。不确定性是普遍存在的:在两个子样本中,均衡都是不确定的。第三,我们估计了脉冲响应函数。我们发现货币冲击、太阳黑子通胀冲击和生产率冲击对通胀、产出和利率有长期影响。
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引用次数: 0
Trading frictions and the Post-earnings-announcement drift 交易摩擦与盈利公布后的漂移
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106216
Josef Fink , Stefan Palan , Erik Theissen
We use laboratory experiments to analyze how the existence of trading frictions (a transaction fee and bans on short selling and margin buying) affects the occurrence and strength of the post-earnings-announcement drift. We find less trading activity and higher asset prices in the presence of frictions. While the initial price reaction to earnings announcements is weaker, the strength of the PEAD is not materially affected. Trading strategies aimed at exploiting the PEAD are less profitable in the presence of frictions.
我们利用实验室实验分析了交易摩擦(交易费以及卖空和保证金购买禁令)的存在如何影响盈利公布后漂移的发生和强度。我们发现,在存在摩擦的情况下,交易活动较少,资产价格较高。虽然最初价格对盈利公告的反应较弱,但 PEAD 的强度并未受到实质性影响。在存在摩擦的情况下,旨在利用 PEAD 的交易策略获利较少。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of types of banks on financial access and income inequality in a heterogeneous sample: A quantile regression analysis 异质样本中银行类型对金融获取和收入不平等的影响:量化回归分析
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106197
Cristian Barra , Christian D’Aniello, Nazzareno Ruggiero

Over time, a substantial amount of theoretical and empirical economic literature has been devoted to examining the relationship between financial access (a relevant component of financial development) and the distribution of income, with mixed findings. We propose a quantile regression approach to study the importance of financial access on income inequality and the effects of cooperative and commercial banking in shaping the relationship. We use data from 57 developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2019. Financial access has been demonstrated to lessen income inequality and the reduction is greater as income inequality increases. When commercial banks are considered instead of their counterparty, the magnitude of the reduction is greater. On the other hand, cooperative banks and credit unions appear to decrease income inequality in low-income countries as they strive for inclusive financial access. This study might provide new insights for policy makers, as they should facilitate access to capital for the most disadvantaged. This would lead to both a greater development of entrepreneurial skills and a better quality of human capital, as they could acquire a higher level of education.

随着时间的推移,大量理论和实证经济文献都致力于研究金融获取(金融发展的相关组成部分)与收入分配之间的关系,研究结果喜忧参半。我们提出了一种量化回归方法,以研究金融准入对收入不平等的重要性,以及合作银行和商业银行在形成这种关系方面的影响。我们使用了 57 个发达国家和发展中国家 2004 年至 2019 年的数据。事实证明,金融服务可减少收入不平等,而且随着收入不平等程度的增加,减少的幅度更大。当考虑商业银行而不是其交易对手时,减少的幅度更大。另一方面,在低收入国家,合作银行和信用社在努力实现包容性金融服务的同时,似乎也减少了收入不平等。这项研究可能会为政策制定者提供新的见解,因为他们应该为最弱势群体获得资本提供便利。这既能促进创业技能的发展,又能提高人力资本的质量,因为他们可以获得更高水平的教育。
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引用次数: 0
Stock returns, industry concentration and firm expenditure decisions 股票回报、行业集中度和公司支出决策
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106195

We build on agency and strategy literature to investigate and explain whether and how changes in stock returns are related to critical managerial expenditure decisions by firms that are consistent and supportive of the firm’s strategy in different industry concentrations. Unlike previous work, our study considers the impact of an extended list of managerial expenditure decisions in the different industry concentration settings. Our research employs a rich panel of firms listed on the UK London Stock Exchange. We find strong support for our postulations. Key managerial expenditure decisions we considered, leverage, inventories turnover, R&D intensity, SGA and fixed asset additions have a differential impact depending on the industry concentration. Our findings add to our understanding of the effect of managerial agency and its integration to strategy on firm stock returns. Managerial expenditure decisions are both constrained by the competitive context as well as strategic logic – both of which impact stock returns. Our study helps managers to prioritize consequential expenditure decisions in different competitive contexts – a key resource for not only weathering crisis periods but optimizing returns to shareholders.

我们以代理和战略文献为基础,研究并解释在不同行业集中度下,股票回报率的变化是否以及如何与企业的关键管理支出决策相关,这些决策是否符合并支持企业的战略。与以往研究不同的是,我们的研究考虑了不同行业集中度环境下一系列管理支出决策的影响。我们的研究采用了英国伦敦证券交易所上市企业的丰富面板。我们发现,我们的假设得到了强有力的支持。我们所考虑的主要管理支出决策,如杠杆率、存货周转率、研发强度、SGA 和固定资产增加,都会因行业集中度的不同而产生不同的影响。我们的研究结果加深了我们对管理代理及其与战略的结合对公司股票回报影响的理解。管理者的支出决策既受到竞争环境的制约,也受到战略逻辑的制约--两者都会影响股票回报率。我们的研究有助于管理者在不同的竞争背景下优先考虑相应的支出决策--这不仅是度过危机时期的关键资源,也是优化股东回报的关键资源。
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引用次数: 0
ECB communication sentiments: How do they relate to the economic environment and financial markets? 欧洲央行的沟通情绪:它们与经济环境和金融市场有何关系?
IF 3.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106198

In this paper we examine multiple dimensions of ECB monetary policy communication by identifying its sentiment and relation with the economic environment and financial markets. We quantify communication sentiment using transcripts from official ECB communication events – press conferences, accounts and Executive Board speeches – as well as media reactions that highlight the key messages of those events. Importantly, we create distinctive lexicons for both of those communication types. We find that the overall trends in the sentiment indices for the analysed communication events closely resemble the movements of monetary policy stance as well as inflation dynamics in the euro area, both before and after the COVID-19 shock period. The communication tone generally shifts in advance of actual monetary policy actions. Using regression analysis, we find some expected, statistically significant effects of press conference sentiment on bank stock prices (information-type shock) and identify the impact of Executive Board speeches on euro area risk-free rates. Fragmentation issues among euro area member states do not seem to be negatively affected by the sentiments of the ECB’s communication. Still, policy makers should be aware that the tone of their communication events is likely to affect particular financial markets. These results are confirmed by various robustness checks.

在本文中,我们通过确定欧洲央行货币政策沟通的情绪及其与经济环境和金融市场的关系,对欧洲央行货币政策沟通的多个方面进行了研究。我们使用欧洲央行官方沟通活动(新闻发布会、账户和执行委员会演讲)的记录以及强调这些活动关键信息的媒体反应来量化沟通情绪。重要的是,我们为这两种沟通类型创建了独特的词典。我们发现,在 COVID-19 冲击期前后,所分析的沟通事件的情绪指数的整体趋势与欧元区货币政策立场的变化以及通货膨胀动态密切相关。沟通基调一般会在实际货币政策行动之前发生变化。通过回归分析,我们发现新闻发布会的情绪对银行股票价格(信息型冲击)有一些预期的、统计上显著的影响,并确定了执行董事会演讲对欧元区无风险利率的影响。欧元区成员国之间的分裂问题似乎并未受到欧洲央行沟通情绪的负面影响。不过,政策制定者应该意识到,其沟通活动的基调很可能会影响特定的金融市场。这些结果得到了各种稳健性检验的证实。
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引用次数: 0
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JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS
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