Population and Environment最新文献

Environmental disruptions such as extreme weather events can intensify household uncertainty by creating financial, marital, and housing instability. In this paper, we draw on unique interview data to advance knowledge of fertility intentions and the role of environmentally induced uncertainty in shaping them. We use in-depth interviews collected in rural Malawi in July 2019 to examine the motivations behind fertility intentions at a moment of heightened uncertainty, the months following the destruction brought by Cyclone Idai. Among respondents with children, the majority planned to wait at least four years before having another child. From the narratives of parents' reproductive plans, we develop a typology of respondents who prefer long inter-birth intervals. Analyses reveal that some respondents' motivations are consistent with traditional spacing intentions, whereas others reflect their fundamental uncertainty about the future and the chances of regaining economic and household stability in a natural-resource contingent context. Our results are foundational for building theory to understand the relationship between environmental forces and fertility.

Food insecurity is a key barrier to improving global health and achieving sustainable development. Nearly 30% of the world's population experiences moderate or severe food insecurity, and rates of hunger have risen in recent years. Environmental change is a major factor driving this increase, as warming air and water temperatures, extreme weather, and land use change can threaten food production. We argue that an important, yet underexplored, pathway between environmental change and food insecurity is through aquatic conditions and fisheries. We focus on Malawi, which is heavily dependent on fish consumption and experiences high rates of food insecurity. By linking nationally representative household survey data from 2010 through 2020 to remotely-sensed chlorophyll and lake surface temperature data from Lake Malawi, we examine the relationship between changing aquatic conditions and food security among households located near the lakeshore. We find that warmer-than-average lake temperatures are negatively associated with multiple food security indicators including Food Consumption Score, self-reported adequacy of food consumption, consumption of dried fish, and consumption of animal protein during four of more days in the prior week. These findings provide insight into the linkages between environmental change, aquatic conditions, and population health, and can inform policies to reduce food insecurity, particularly among fisheries-dependent communities.

Little is known about social gradients in cause-specific infant mortality in the nineteenth century. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to explore this connection for the time prior to the epidemiologic and demographic transitions. We used the church records of Rostock, an important port city on the Baltic coast in northern Germany, and prepared and merged the baptismal and burial registers of its largest parish (St. Jakobi) for the periods 1815-1836 and 1859-1882. Based on individual-level data (N = 16,880), we classified the fathers' occupations into three social classes and estimated cause-specific infant mortality risks for these groups using event history analysis. We found a clear social gradient in neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. This gradient was driven by waterborne diseases and convulsions, suggesting severe nutritional and sanitation deficits among the lower social classes even before the city began to struggle with worsening living environments following industrialisation and population growth in the second half of the nineteenth century. Our results also suggest that deteriorating environmental conditions affect all parts of the population, leading to an increase of infant mortality rates in all social classes. Improvements in nutritional and sanitary conditions may thus reduce the risk of infant death from infectious diseases.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00483-w.

Increasing climate risks introduce new sources of uncertainty to smallholder farmers' livelihood decisions. While farmers in different development contexts tend to accurately perceive long-term climatic trends, livelihood diversification as a climate resilience strategy has generally lagged behind awareness of climate risks. In this study, we investigate potential mechanisms behind this lagged response through a survey of 500 farming households in Nepal's Chitwan Valley, a region that is highly dependent on subsistence agriculture and highly exposed to several climate-driven hazards. Specifically, we employ a suite of cross-sectional and time series econometric techniques to analyze how farmers' information sources, social capital, and previous exposure to climate hazards shape climate risk perceptions and livelihood decisions. We find that climate-driven risks are highly salient to household perceptions of farming risks; however, they also drive higher perceived risks of common livelihood diversification strategies, including rural-urban migration and off-farm employment. Further, while farming households generally maintain diversified income portfolios, exposure to droughts and/or floods leads to persistent increases in the reliance on farming income, which we term a "retrenchment" response. We find evidence for both financial and psychological mechanisms behind this response, which may exacerbate environmentally driven poverty traps. Our results indicate that efforts to build farmers' resilience to climate risks should especially account for perceived risks of livelihood alternatives, financial constraints, and loss-averse behavior in response to income shocks.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00493-8.

This study examines the impact of intergenerational learning and intellectual capital on women's voluntary decisions to remain in place despite environmental risks. By investigating how women experience the decision to stay through intergenerational knowledge transfer, we analyze the adaptability of communities facing climate-driven livelihood challenges and the intricate socio-ecological factors that tie individuals to their homes. Through life-story interviews with 70 women from 25 households in five environmental hazard-prone sites in Bangladesh, the study reveals nuanced patterns of traditional gender roles that both support and limit women's autonomy in making mobility choices. Although mobility decisions vary across site and scale, systemic issues such as arranged child marriage, financial instability, (traditional) home-bound duties, male authority over mobility decisions, and gendered expectations consistently emerged as barriers to women's (non-)migration, even when they aspired to leave. Thus, this research offers insights into gendered (non-)migration and its intergenerationality, which is inevitable in developing sustainable adaptation pathways.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00475-w.

Climate change is an intergenerational issue, with parents uniquely positioned to influence both current emissions and future generations' environmental attitudes. This study explores the attitudes, beliefs, and behaviours of parents in the UK regarding climate change, assessing their 'carbon capability'. Using data from a nationally representative survey (n = 1001), in-depth interviews (n = 30), and focus groups (n = 7), we found that parenthood is associated with increased energy consumption, transport use, and plastic waste. Despite these challenges, parents demonstrated a high capacity to influence and be influenced by others. They were aware of their environmental impacts and were open to adopting pro-environmental behaviours, driven by a desire to prepare and protect their children. Parents preferred timely information provision as a policy response but recognise the need for more substantive, structural interventions to support sustainable living. This study highlights the critical role of parents in climate action and calls for targeted policies to enhance their carbon capability. By applying the carbon capability framework, which integrates individual and structural factors, this research contributes to both parenting and environmental psychology literatures. Our findings underscore the importance of empowering parents with the knowledge and tools necessary to reduce their carbon footprints and foster a new generation of climate-conscious citizens.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00506-6.

Wildfire smoke poses a serious and growing health threat to communities in the United States (US), Canada, and beyond. Some populations-including children-are especially susceptible. Air Quality Indexes (AQIs) can inform parents about local air quality during smoke events and offer guidance on actions that protect children. In July-August 2023, parents from Oregon, Washington, California, and British Columbia (BC) (n = 2100) participated in an online cross-sectional study. Binary and ordinal logistic regression models were used to examine geographic, demographic, and psychosocial predictors of three dependent variables: knowledge of where to check AQI information, frequent checking of AQI information during wildfire seasons, and adherence to AQI health messages around reducing/rescheduling outdoor physical activity. Smoke-exposure analysis indicated widespread potential exposures to wildfire smoke across all four jurisdictions. Nonetheless, parents in BC, on average, were less likely to report knowing where to check AQI information, checked less frequently, and were less likely to adhere to AQI guidance than parents in the three US states. Adherence to AQI health messages did not differ by jurisdiction in the presence of other covariates, suggesting parents are equally likely to follow AQI guidance when they know where to find it and check it. Other consistent predictors of the three dependent variables included experience with prior smoke-related health impacts, smoke risk perceptions, and use of internet/mobile applications as sources of smoke information. These findings indicate that increased promotion of AQIs may benefit parents in some regions during wildfires. Future evaluations of smoke education initiatives could help health agencies share effective practices across jurisdictions and target interventions to increase AQI adoption.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00491-w.

We aimed to map the spatial distribution of green space in the Netherlands, and to first comprehensively assess socio-demographic and socio-economic differences in the availability of green space in the Netherlands. Data was analyzed from all registered residents of the Netherlands aged one and above on January 1, 2017 (16,440,620 individuals). Socio-demographic and socio-economic information was derived from Statistics Netherlands. Data on green space density (percent of the area) around home were assembled by the Institute for Public Health and the Environment at the address level. The distribution of exposure to green space was described by age groups, sex, ethnicity, household socioeconomic status (SES), and urbanicity degree, and stratified by green space type. The distribution of green space by all vegetation, trees, shrubs, low vegetation, grass field, and agriculture was mapped for the Netherlands in 2017. Small differences in green space density were found across age and sex groups. Ethnic Dutch (58.1%) and Indonesian (54.5%) had more green space coverage around residence than Turkish (50.0%) and Moroccan (50.0%). People with higher household SES generally had greater green space coverage, although it slightly decreased at the highest SES level. Higher urbanicity levels were monotonously associated with lower green space exposure. These differences particularly originated from differences in low vegetation. Observed differences between ethnic and SES groups originated mostly from differences in rural to moderately urbanized areas. Environmental injustice was found among ethnic, SES, and urbanicity groups. The differences were mostly present in low vegetation and in rural to moderately urbanized areas.

With rising global temperatures come greater temperature and precipitation variability, contributing to more frequent and severe climate hazards that can upend lives and displace families. Lower-income households are often disproportionately impacted, so it is important to understand how climate hazards influence human migration patterns across income levels. There has been limited research on climate migration within the United States (US), particularly with respect to its economic impacts, like the associated transfer of household resources and incomes, or "income migration." Here, we investigate spatial and temporal patterns of US domestic migration across income brackets between 2011 and 2021. We then investigate the role of climate hazards in shaping migration and income migration across US counties using panel data for the years 1995-2021. We found that lower-income households moved at higher rates overall but had less net migration across state lines, while higher-income households moved in a more directed fashion towards the most popular migration destinations. We also found an uptick in migration and income migration after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among higher income brackets. Property damage from climate hazards had small but significant relationships with migration. More destructive hurricanes were associated with reduced net migration and income migration nationally and in the South and Northeast. Flood damage was associated with reduced net income migration (greater outflow and/or reduced inflow of aggregate household income from migration) but had minimal effects on net migration overall, suggesting higher-income households (whose moves have a larger impact on net income migration) may be more likely to leave or avoid counties impacted by flooding. This work provides valuable new insights on the roles of both climate hazards and income levels in shaping domestic migration.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00496-5.

Various studies predict large migration flows due to climatic and other environmental changes, yet the ex post empirical evidence for such migration is inconclusive. To examine the causal link between environmental changes and migration for a population residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, an area heavily affected by floods and riverbank erosion, I relate the respondents' self-reported affectedness by environmental changes, their migration aspirations, and their capability to move to their migration likelihood. The analysis relies on a unique quasi-experimental research design based on original survey panel data of 1604 household heads. I find that erosion significantly and substantively increases the likelihood to migrate, leading to more than a doubling of the migration likelihood compared to the unaffected control group. Flooding has a significant effect only if it causes severe and irreversible impacts. Moreover, erosion affectedness increases the likelihood of moving permanently, with the whole household, and to a rural location. Individual, temporary moves to urban locations, by contrast, are primarily driven by low socio-economic status. Those who move with the whole household migrate mostly less than five kilometers. These findings call for a more nuanced understanding of the complex environment-migration nexus.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7.