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Using mixture models to examine group difference among jurors: an illustration involving the perceived strength of forensic science evidence 使用混合模型检验陪审员之间的群体差异:一个涉及法医学证据感知强度的例子
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/LPR/MGAA016
Naomi Kaplan-Damary, W. Thompson, R. Grady, H. Stern
The way in which jurors perceive reports of forensic evidence is of critical importance, especially in cases of forensic identification evidence that require examiners to compare items and assess whether they originate from a common source. The current study discusses methods for studying group differences among mock jurors and illustrates them using a reanalysis of data regarding lay perceptions of forensic science evidence. Conventional approaches that consider subpopulations defined a priori are compared with mixture models that infer group structure from the data, allowing detection of subgroups that cohere in unexpected ways. Mixture models allow researchers to determine whether a population comprises subpopulations that respond to evidence differently and then to consider how those subpopulations might be characterized. The reanalysis reported here shows that mixture models can enhance understanding of lay perceptions of an important type of forensic science evidence (DNA and fingerprint comparisons), providing insight into how the perceived strength of that evidence varies as a function of the language forensic experts use to describe their findings. This novel application of mixture models illustrates how such models can be used, more generally, to explore the importance of juror characteristics in jury decision making.
陪审员看待法医证据报告的方式至关重要,特别是在需要审查员比较物品并评估它们是否来自共同来源的法医鉴定证据的情况下。目前的研究讨论了模拟陪审员之间研究小组差异的方法,并通过对法医学证据的外行感知数据的重新分析来说明这些方法。将考虑先验定义的亚种群的传统方法与从数据推断群体结构的混合模型进行比较,从而可以检测出以意想不到的方式凝聚在一起的亚种群。混合模型使研究人员能够确定一个种群是否包含对证据做出不同反应的亚种群,然后考虑这些亚种群的特征。本文报告的再分析表明,混合模型可以提高人们对一种重要的法医科学证据(DNA和指纹比较)的理解,从而深入了解证据的感知强度如何随着法医专家用来描述其发现的语言的变化而变化。这种混合模型的新应用说明了如何使用这些模型,更普遍地,以探索陪审员特征在陪审团决策中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Treatment of inconclusives in the AFTE range of conclusions AFTE结论范围内的非闭合性治疗
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/lpr/mgab002
H. Hofmann, A. Carriquiry, Susan Vanderplas
In the past decade, and in response to the recommendations set forth by the National Research Council Committee on Identifying the Needs of the Forensic Sciences Community (2009), scientists have conducted several black-box studies that attempt to estimate the error rates of firearm examiners. Most of these studies have resulted in vanishingly small error rates, and at least one of them (D. P. Baldwin, S. J. Bajic, M. Morris, and D. Zamzow. A Study of False-Positive and False-Negative Error Rates in Cartridge Case Comparisons. Technical report, Ames Lab IA, Performing, Fort Belvoir, VA, April 2014.) was cited by the President’s Council of Advisors in Science and Technology (PCAST) during the Obama administration, as an example of a well-designed experiment. What has received little attention, however, is the actual calculation of error rates and in particular, the effect of inconclusive findings on those error estimates. The treatment of inconclusives in the assessment of errors has far-reaching implications in the legal system. Here, we revisit several black-box studies in the area of firearms examination, investigating their treatment of inconclusive results. It is clear that there are stark differences in the rate of inconclusive results in regions with different norms for training and reporting conclusions. More surprisingly, the rate of inconclusive decisions for materials from different sources is notably higher than the rate of inconclusive decisions for same-source materials in some regions. To mitigate the effects of this difference we propose a unifying approach to the calculation of error rates that is directly applicable in forensic laboratories and in legal settings.
在过去的十年里,为了响应国家研究委员会确定法医科学界需求委员会(2009年)提出的建议,科学家们进行了几项黑匣子研究,试图估计枪支检查员的错误率。这些研究中的大多数都导致了极小的错误率,其中至少有一项(D.P.Baldwin、S.J.Bajic、M.Morris和D。赞佐。弹壳比较中假阳性和假阴性错误率的研究。技术报告,Ames Lab IA,Performing,Fort Belvoir,VA,2014年4月。)被奥巴马政府时期的总统科学技术顾问委员会(PCAST)引用为一个精心设计的实验的例子。然而,很少受到关注的是误差率的实际计算,特别是不确定的调查结果对这些误差估计的影响。在评估错误时对不确定因素的处理在法律体系中具有深远的影响。在这里,我们回顾了枪支检查领域的几项黑匣子研究,调查了它们对不确定结果的处理。很明显,在培训和报告结论规范不同的区域,不确定结果的发生率存在明显差异。更令人惊讶的是,在一些地区,来自不同来源的材料的非决定性决策率明显高于同一来源材料的非确定性决策率。为了减轻这种差异的影响,我们提出了一种统一的错误率计算方法,该方法直接适用于法医实验室和法律环境。
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引用次数: 14
A License to Discriminate? The Empirical Consequences and Normative Implications of Religious Exemptions 歧视的许可证?宗教豁免的实证后果与规范意涵
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-11-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3733321
Netta Barak Corren
What are the consequences of religious exemptions? And what are the normative implications of these consequences? These questions are currently at the center of a heated debate. Opponents argue that granting exemptions would extend LGBTQ discrimination. Proponents of religious exemptions argue that religious exemption would not expand discrimination against same-sex couples. The troubling aspect of this debate is that none of the parties rely on actual data. Particularly missing are data on the effects of exemptions granted in Supreme Court decisions, an issue that the Court has addressed repeatedly in recent years—and is set to do so once again this term, in Fulton v. City of Philadelphia. This Article intervenes in the debate based on the results of a large-scale field experiment that measured the effect of Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission (2018) on same-sex couples in the wedding market. The field experiment revealed that Masterpiece reduced vendors’ willingness to provide wedding services to same-sex couples as compared with heterosexual couples, even for vendors that provided these services prior to the decision. Following Masterpiece, the odds that same-sex couples would experience discrimination are estimated between 61% and 85%. These results have several implications for the debate on religious exemptions. First, they discredit the argument that the effect of religious exemptions is negligible and that exemptions will not expand discrimination. Second, the results complicate the conventional portrait of religious objection as fixed and unyielding to change, showing that the demand for discrimination is elastic and socially constructed, even when coercion and sanctions are absent. Third, Masterpiece’s negative effects establish the pillar of the strict scrutiny doctrine of religious burdens, by showing that states have a compelling interest to enforce antidiscrimination law without exemptions to ensure access to public accommodations. Fourth, I advance an empirical approach to religion-equality conflicts that can guide legislatures that deliberate whether and how to enact religious exemptions from antidiscrimination laws.Finally, the troubling consequences of Masterpiece require the Supreme Court to proceed with great care as it sets to decide Fulton v. City of Philadelphia and any religion-equality conflict in the future. However the Court decides to resolve the constitutional issue at hand, it must take into account that even a deliberately narrow and case-specific exemption might have a significant negative impact on the market and its customers.
宗教豁免的后果是什么?这些结果的规范含义是什么?这些问题目前正处于激烈辩论的中心。反对者认为,给予豁免会扩大LGBTQ歧视。宗教豁免的支持者认为,宗教豁免不会扩大对同性伴侣的歧视。这场辩论令人不安的地方在于,各方都不依赖实际数据。尤其缺失的是关于最高法院判决中授予的豁免的影响的数据,这是最高法院近年来反复处理的一个问题,而且在富尔顿诉费城案(Fulton v. City of Philadelphia)中,这一问题将在本任期内再次得到解决。本文基于一项大规模现场实验的结果介入了这场辩论,该实验测量了杰作蛋糕店诉科罗拉多州民权委员会(2018)对婚礼市场上同性伴侣的影响。实地实验显示,与异性恋夫妇相比,Masterpiece降低了供应商为同性伴侣提供婚礼服务的意愿,即使是在决定之前提供这些服务的供应商也是如此。在杰作之后,同性伴侣遭受歧视的几率估计在61%到85%之间。这些结果对有关宗教豁免的辩论有几点启示。首先,他们质疑宗教豁免的影响可以忽略不计以及豁免不会扩大歧视的论点。其次,研究结果将传统的宗教反对观点复杂化,认为宗教反对是固定不变的,无法改变的。研究表明,即使在没有强制和制裁的情况下,对歧视的需求是有弹性的,是社会建构的。第三,《杰作》的负面影响确立了严格审查宗教负担原则的支柱,表明各州有强制执行反歧视法的迫切利益,没有豁免,以确保进入公共设施。第四,我提出了一种宗教平等冲突的实证方法,可以指导立法机构审议是否以及如何制定反歧视法的宗教豁免。最后,杰作案令人不安的后果要求最高法院在决定富尔顿诉费城市案以及未来任何宗教平等冲突时都要非常谨慎。无论法院如何决定解决手头的宪法问题,它都必须考虑到,即使是故意狭窄和针对具体案件的豁免,也可能对市场及其客户产生重大的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
On Consequential and Normative Analysis of Law 法律的后果性与规范性分析
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-11-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3732711
Henrik Lando
Two views, inspired by Alf Ross, are sometimes raised against law and economics. One is that consequential analysis has no role in legal science, the task of which is to predict court verdicts. The other is that normative criteria involving fairness or social welfare are meaningless. I argue that the former view rests on a misreading of Ross, who in fact called for the development of law and economics. As for normative criteria, I argue in favor of a pragmatic approach, which inquires whether normative concepts can affect our views of the desirability of a legal rule or verdict.
受阿尔夫•罗斯(Alf Ross)启发,人们有时会提出两种反对法律和经济学的观点。一是后果分析在法律科学中没有作用,法律科学的任务是预测法院判决。另一种观点是,涉及公平或社会福利的规范性标准毫无意义。我认为,前一种观点是对罗斯的误读,罗斯实际上呼吁发展法律和经济学。至于规范性标准,我赞成实用主义方法,即探究规范性概念是否会影响我们对法律规则或判决的可取性的看法。
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引用次数: 0
On the Development of (Not So) New Competition Systems – Findings from An Empirical Study 论(非)新竞争制度的发展——一项实证研究的结果
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-11-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3727395
Jasminka Pecotić Kaufman
New and recently established systems for regulating competition are often prone to an institutional instability, weak authority, and fragile track-record. Their development negotiates a variety of lifecycles, with various factors impacting their evolution. Relying on competition system development literature to provide a theoretical framework for our research, an empirical qualitative research study was conducted with the aim of examining the competition system in Croatia, in the 1995-2018 period. Main stakeholders were interviewed (in-depth interviews), forty persons in total (NCA officials, judges, practitioners, corporate lawyers, journalists, and academics). Archival research, as well as online research, was conducted to find relevant press reports, and selected NCA quantitative data was analysed. Using content analysis software, original and valuable insights were drawn from this dataset. The aim is to develop a theory that is able to explain the reasons underlying competition system immaturity in Croatia, more than two decades after its creation. The findings include a specific evolutionary path, as well as two underlying issues. Four distinct phases of development were identified (Inception; Withdrawal; Pre-accession; and Post-accession phase). The underlying issues are, first, a lack of institutional and system embeddedness, and second, functional self-restraint on the side of the authority, arguably a result of negative institutional memory. The comprehensive dataset and methodology used, make this research distinctive in broader terms, including being the first such study conducted on Croatia. This paper aims to contribute to the broader literature on competition systems development by examining the relevance of specific factors influencing their evolution.
新的和最近建立的监管竞争的制度往往容易出现制度不稳定、权威薄弱和业绩记录脆弱的情况。它们的开发涉及各种各样的生命周期,有各种各样的因素影响着它们的发展。依靠竞争制度发展文献为我们的研究提供理论框架,我们进行了一项实证定性研究,旨在研究1995-2018年期间克罗地亚的竞争制度。对主要利益相关者进行了访谈(深度访谈),共40人(NCA官员、法官、从业人员、公司律师、记者和学者)。通过档案研究和在线研究,找到相关的新闻报道,并对选定的NCA定量数据进行分析。使用内容分析软件,从该数据集中提取了原始且有价值的见解。其目的是发展一种理论,能够解释克罗地亚在其建立20多年后竞争制度不成熟的原因。这些发现包括一个特定的进化路径,以及两个潜在的问题。确定了四个不同的开发阶段(Inception;撤军;呆;和加入后阶段)。潜在的问题是,首先,缺乏制度和系统嵌入性,其次,权威方面的功能性自我约束,可以说是消极制度记忆的结果。所使用的综合数据集和方法使这项研究在更广泛的范围内与众不同,包括首次在克罗地亚进行此类研究。本文旨在通过研究影响竞争制度演变的具体因素的相关性,为竞争制度发展的更广泛文献做出贡献。
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引用次数: 4
A Modern Role for Intellectual Property Rights in Sustainable Finance, Prudential Banking and Capital Adequacy Regulation 知识产权在可持续金融、审慎银行和资本充足率监管中的现代作用
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.4337/9781789901351.00012
J. Denoncourt
Technological innovation and capitalism have rapidly transformed our planet, raising our living standards while degrading the environment. The most striking impact of the advance of human-created technological progress on the natural environment is climate change. There is an urgent need for a wide variety of innovations to solve problems on a global scale. One of the multi-faceted aspects of sustainable development in a market-based context is the role that intellectual property rights (IPRs) play in incentivizing new knowledge and fiscal regulatory policy. How banks provide innovation firms with credit, while mitigating their own risk, is an ongoing challenge with both short- and long-term implications. Prudential banking regulation has yet to fully consider the modern role of intangible assets and IPRs in business and the economy and as bank assets. With new insights regarding the role of prudential financial regulation treatment of intangibles and especially IPRs such as patents, trade marks and designs that are formally registered, this chapter makes an original contribution to the interdisciplinary literature regarding Sustainable Development Goal 9 (SDG 9) to promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization while fostering innovation.
技术创新和资本主义迅速改变了我们的星球,提高了我们的生活水平,同时使环境恶化。人类创造的技术进步对自然环境最显著的影响是气候变化。迫切需要各种各样的创新来解决全球范围内的问题。以市场为基础的可持续发展的多个方面之一是知识产权在激励新知识和财政监管政策方面所起的作用。银行如何向创新型企业提供信贷,同时降低自身风险,是一项长期和短期的挑战。银行审慎监管尚未充分考虑无形资产和知识产权在商业和经济中的现代作用,以及作为银行资产的作用。通过对审慎金融监管对无形资产,特别是专利、商标和外观设计等正式注册的知识产权的作用的新见解,本章对有关可持续发展目标9 (SDG 9)的跨学科文献做出了原创性贡献,以促进包容和可持续的工业化,同时促进创新。
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引用次数: 0
Enforcing Copyright Through Antitrust? A Transatlantic View of the Strange Case of News Publishers Against Digital Platforms 通过反垄断来执行版权?跨大西洋视角的新闻出版商对抗数字平台的奇怪案例
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-10-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3719811
G. Colangelo
The emergence of the multi-sided platform business model has had a profound impact on the news publishing industry. By acting as gatekeepers to news traffic, large online platforms have become unavoidable trading partners for news businesses, and exert substantial bargaining power in their dealings. Concerns have been raised that the bargaining power imbalance between online platforms and content producers may threaten the viability of publishers’ businesses. Notably, digital infomediaries are accused of capturing a disproportionate share of advertising revenue relative to the investments made in producing news content. Moreover, by affecting the monetization of news, the dominance of some online platforms is deemed to have contributed to the decline of trustworthy sources of news. Against this background, governments have been urged to intervene in order to ensure the sustainability of the publishing industry. The EU has decided to address publishers’ concerns by introducing an additional layer of copyright as a means to encourage cooperation between publishers and online content distributors. And the French Competition Authority has recently accused Google of adopting a display policy aimed at frustrating the objective of the domestic law implementing the EU legislation, hence requiring Google to conduct negotiations in good faith with publishers and news agencies on the remuneration for the reuse of their protected content. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has instead embraced a regulatory approach, developing a mandatory bargaining code. This paper analyzes different solutions advanced to remedy these problems in order to assess their economic and legal justifications as well as their effectiveness.
多方平台商业模式的出现,对新闻出版行业产生了深远的影响。通过充当新闻流量的看门人,大型在线平台已成为新闻企业不可避免的贸易伙伴,并在交易中发挥了相当大的议价能力。有人担心,在线平台和内容生产商之间的议价能力失衡,可能会威胁到出版商业务的生存能力。值得注意的是,数字信息中介被指控攫取了与新闻内容制作投资不成比例的广告收入份额。此外,通过影响新闻的货币化,一些在线平台的主导地位被认为是导致可信新闻来源下降的原因之一。在这种背景下,政府被敦促进行干预,以确保出版业的可持续性。欧盟决定通过引入额外的版权层来解决出版商的担忧,以鼓励出版商与在线内容分销商之间的合作。法国竞争管理局最近指控谷歌采取了一项显示政策,旨在阻碍实施欧盟立法的国内法的目标,因此要求谷歌与出版商和新闻机构就重用其受保护内容的报酬进行真诚的谈判。相反,澳大利亚竞争与消费者委员会(Australian Competition and Consumer Commission)采取了一种监管方式,制定了一套强制性的议价准则。本文分析了为纠正这些问题而提出的不同解决方案,以评估其经济和法律依据及其有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Personal Norms — and Not Only Social Norms — Shape Economic Behavior 个人规范——而不仅仅是社会规范——塑造经济行为
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-10-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3720539
Zvonimir Bašić, Eugenio Verrina
While social norms have received great attention within economics, little is known about the role of personal norms. We propose a simple utility framework — which assumes that people care about monetary payoff, social norms and personal norms — and design a novel two-part experiment to investigate the predictive value of personal norms across four economic games. We show that personal norms — together with social norms and monetary payoff — are highly predictive of individuals’ behavior. Moreover, they are: i) inherently distinct from social norms across a series of economic contexts, ii) robust to an exogenous increase in social image concerns, which increases the predictive value of social norms but does not weaken that of personal norms, and iii) complementary to social norms in predicting behavior, as a model with both personal and social norms outperforms a model with only one of the two norms. Taken together, our results support personal norms as a key driver of economic behavior, relevant in a wide array of economic settings.
虽然社会规范在经济学中受到了极大的关注,但人们对个人规范的作用知之甚少。我们提出了一个简单的效用框架——假设人们关心货币收益、社会规范和个人规范——并设计了一个新颖的两部分实验来研究个人规范在四种经济博弈中的预测价值。我们表明,个人规范——连同社会规范和金钱回报——对个人行为具有高度的预测性。此外,它们是:i)在一系列经济背景下与社会规范本质上不同;ii)对社会形象关注的外生增加具有很强的稳稳性,这增加了社会规范的预测价值,但不会削弱个人规范的预测价值;iii)在预测行为方面与社会规范互补,因为同时包含个人和社会规范的模型优于仅包含两种规范中的一种的模型。综上所述,我们的研究结果支持个人规范是经济行为的关键驱动因素,与广泛的经济环境相关。
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引用次数: 19
Caught in an Authoritarian Trap of its Own Making? Brazil's ‘Lava Jato’ Anti‐Corruption Investigation and the Politics of Prosecutorial Overreach 陷入自己制造的专制陷阱?巴西的“Lava Jato”反腐败调查和检察官越权的政治
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-09-20 DOI: 10.1111/jols.12245
G. Meszaros
The negative and corrosive impacts of corruption in the fields of economics, politics, and law are widely discussed. Less understood are the potentially negative impacts of anti‐corruption struggles and strategies themselves. This article presents a case study of Brazil's ‘Car Wash’ (‘Lava Jato’) scandal from a legal and political perspective. Although the subsequent Operation Car Wash investigation was widely regarded as remarkably successful, supposedly buttressing the rule of law through high‐profile prosecutions of leading politicians and businesspersons, the article argues that legal due process, wider constitutional law, and the political process were undermined. While the use of media leaks to strengthen the investigation proved tactically successful, when coupled with new legal instruments it undermined the presumption of innocence and contributed to a climate in which political and legal debates themselves became increasingly subordinated to simplistic polarizing anti‐corruption discourses, thereby undermining an already fragile political and institutional environment.
腐败在经济、政治和法律领域的负面和腐蚀性影响被广泛讨论。人们不太了解反腐败斗争和战略本身的潜在负面影响。本文介绍了一个巴西洗车项目的案例研究。(‘Lava Jato’)丑闻从法律和政治的角度来看。尽管随后的“洗车行动”调查被普遍认为非常成功,据称通过高调起诉主要政客和商人来支持法治,但文章认为,法律正当程序、更广泛的宪法和政治程序受到了破坏。虽然利用媒体泄密来加强调查在战术上是成功的,但当加上新的法律工具时,它破坏了无罪推定,并促成了一种气氛,在这种气氛中,政治和法律辩论本身越来越服从于简单化的两极分化的反腐败话语,从而破坏了本已脆弱的政治和制度环境。
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引用次数: 7
Industrialization and Democracy 工业化与民主
IF 0.7 4区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3693044
Sam van Noort
I provide a new theory of the relationship between economic development and democracy. I argue that a large share of employment in manufacturing (i.e., industrialization) makes mass mobilization both more likely to occur and more costly to suppress. This increases the power of the masses relative to autocratic elites, making democracy more likely. Novel manufacturing employment data for 145 countries over 170 years (1845--2015) supports this hypothesis. First, all highly developed countries in the West and East Asia democratized when approximately 25% of their workforce was employed in manufacturing, and virtually no other country has ever reached this level without eventually becoming a well-functioning democracy. Second, industrialization is strongly correlated with democracy, even after accounting for two-way fixed effects and other economic determinants of democracy (e.g., income and inequality). Last, unlike with other economic determinants the effect occurs on both transitions and consolidations, and is equally large after WWII.
我提出了一种经济发展与民主关系的新理论。我认为,制造业(即工业化)的大量就业使得大规模动员更有可能发生,抑制起来的成本也更高。这增加了大众相对于专制精英的权力,使民主更有可能实现。145个国家170年间(1845- 2015)的制造业就业数据支持这一假设。首先,所有在东亚和西方高度发达的国家,当大约25%的劳动力从事制造业时,就实现了民主化,而且几乎没有其他国家达到这个水平而最终没有成为一个运作良好的民主国家。其次,工业化与民主密切相关,即使在考虑了双向固定效应和民主的其他经济决定因素(如收入和不平等)之后也是如此。最后,与其他经济决定因素不同,这种影响既发生在转型过程中,也发生在整合过程中,而且在二战后同样巨大。
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引用次数: 0
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