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Impact of Multidomain Frailty on the Mode of Death in Older Patients With Heart Failure: A Cohort Study. 多域虚弱对老年心衰患者死亡方式的影响:一项队列研究
IF 6.2 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.123.010416
Koichi Ohashi, Yuya Matsue, Daichi Maeda, Yudai Fujimoto, Nobuyuki Kagiyama, Tsutomu Sunayama, Taishi Dotare, Kentaro Jujo, Kazuya Saito, Kentaro Kamiya, Hiroshi Saito, Yuki Ogasahara, Emi Maekawa, Masaaki Konishi, Takeshi Kitai, Kentaro Iwata, Hiroshi Wada, Masaru Hiki, Takatoshi Kasai, Hirofumi Nagamatsu, Tetsuya Ozawa, Katsuya Izawa, Shuhei Yamamoto, Naoki Aizawa, Kazuki Wakaume, Kazuhiro Oka, Shin-Ichi Momomura, Tohru Minamino

Background: Although frailty is strongly associated with mortality in patients with heart failure (HF), the risk of which specific cause of death is associated with being complicated with frailty is unclear. We aimed to clarify the association between multidomain frailty and the causes of death in elderly patients hospitalized with HF.

Methods: We analyzed data from the FRAGILE-HF cohort, where patients aged 65 years and older, hospitalized with HF, were prospectively registered between 2016 and 2018 in 15 Japanese hospitals before discharge and followed up for 2 years. All patients were assessed for physical, social, and cognitive dysfunction, and categorized into 3 groups based on their number of frailty domains (FDs, 0-1, 2, and 3). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to evaluate the association between the number of FDs and all-cause mortality, whereas Fine-Gray competing risk regression analysis was used for assessing the impact on cause-specific mortality.

Results: We analyzed 1181 patients with HF (81 years old in median, 57.4% were male), 530 (44.9%), 437 (37.0%), and 214 (18.1%) of whom were categorized into the FD 0 to 1, FD 2, and FD 3 groups, respectively. During the 2-year follow-up, 240 deaths were observed (99 HF deaths, 34 cardiovascular deaths, and 107 noncardiovascular deaths), and an increase in the number of FD was significantly associated with mortality (Log-rank: P<0.001). The Fine-Gray competing risk analysis adjusted for age and sex showed that FDs 2 (subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.77 [95% CI, 1.11-2.81]) and 3 (2.78, [95% CI, 1.69-4.59]) groups were associated with higher incidence of noncardiovascular death but not with HF and other cardiovascular deaths.

Conclusions: Although multidomain frailty is strongly associated with mortality in older patients with HF, it is mostly attributable to noncardiovascular death and not cardiovascular death, including HF death.

Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: UMIN000023929.

背景:虽然虚弱与心力衰竭(HF)患者的死亡率密切相关,但具体哪种死因与并发虚弱相关的风险尚不清楚。我们的目的是澄清老年心力衰竭住院患者的多域虚弱与死亡原因之间的关联:我们分析了 FRAGILE-HF 队列的数据,2016 年至 2018 年期间,日本 15 家医院对 65 岁及以上的高血压住院患者进行了出院前前瞻性登记,并随访 2 年。所有患者均接受了身体、社会和认知功能障碍评估,并根据虚弱度域(FDs)的数量(0-1、2 和 3)分为 3 组。卡普兰-梅耶生存分析用于评估虚弱域数量与全因死亡率之间的关系,而Fine-Gray竞争风险回归分析则用于评估对特定病因死亡率的影响:我们分析了 1181 名心房颤动患者(中位年龄 81 岁,57.4% 为男性),其中 530 人(44.9%)、437 人(37.0%)和 214 人(18.1%)分别被分为 FD 0 至 1 组、FD 2 组和 FD 3 组。在为期 2 年的随访中,共观察到 240 例死亡病例(99 例高频死亡病例、34 例心血管死亡病例和 107 例非心血管死亡病例),FD 数量的增加与死亡率显著相关(Log-rank:结论尽管多域虚弱与老年心房颤动患者的死亡率密切相关,但它主要归因于非心血管死亡,而非心血管死亡,包括心房颤动死亡:URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier:UMIN000023929。
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引用次数: 0
Clinical Care for Life's Essential 8 by Medical Specialty in the United States, an Observational Cohort Study. 美国按医学专业划分的 "生活必需品 8 "临床护理观察队列研究。
IF 6.2 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.123.010498
Michael E Johansen, Madeline R Sterling, Jeremy B Sussman
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引用次数: 0
When Is a Simple Score Simply Good Enough? Comparing Stroke Risk Estimation in Atrial Fibrillation. 什么时候简单的评分就足够好?比较心房颤动的卒中风险估计。
IF 6.9 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.124.010898
Geoffrey D Barnes
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引用次数: 0
2024 ACC/AHA Clinical Performance and Quality Measures for Adults With Valvular and Structural Heart Disease: A Report of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Joint Committee on Performance Measures. 2024 ACC/AHA 成人瓣膜性和结构性心脏病临床绩效和质量措施:美国心脏协会/美国心脏病学会绩效衡量联合委员会报告》。
IF 6.9 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1161/HCQ.0000000000000129
Hani Jneid, Joanna Chikwe, Suzanne V Arnold, Robert O Bonow, Steven M Bradley, Edward P Chen, Rebecca L Diekemper, Setri Fugar, Douglas R Johnston, Dharam J Kumbhani, Roxana Mehran, Arunima Misra, Manesh R Patel, Ranya N Sweis, Molly Szerlip
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引用次数: 0
Drones for Saving Life: Reimagining War Technology. 无人机拯救生命:重新想象战争技术。
IF 6.9 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.124.010908
Paul S Chan
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引用次数: 0
Relationship Between Social Support and Clinical Outcomes: An Evaluation of Participant-Nominated Treatment Supporters in the HOPE 4 Intervention. 社会支持与临床结果之间的关系:对 HOPE 4 干预中参与者提名的治疗支持者的评估。
IF 6.9 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.122.009342
Anastasia Drakos, Tara McCready, Patricio Lopez-Jaramillo, Shofiqul Islam, Martin McKee, Salim Yusuf, J D Schwalm

Background: The HOPE 4 trial (Heart Outcomes Prevention and Evaluation 4) investigated the effectiveness of a comprehensive, collaborative model of care, implemented in Colombia and Malaysia, which aimed to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in individuals with hypertension. One component of this intervention was the nomination of a treatment supporter, where participants could select a family member or friend to assist them with their care. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of these individuals on participant outcomes, as well as the relationship dynamics between participants and their treatment supporter.

Methods: Participants in the HOPE 4 intervention group with baseline and 12 months of follow-up were included for analysis. They were divided into Every Visit (n=339) and

Results: Groups were majority female (53% versus 62%) with a mean age of 63 and 66 years. Country of origin differed between groups (22% versus 86%; Colombia). A 15.5% ([95% CI, 6.2%-24.8%] P=0.004) greater increase in statin medication use was reported in the Every Visit group at 12 months compared with the P<0.003). The difference in change in systolic blood pressure between groups was not found to be significant at 12 months, though it favored the Every Visit group (-2.3 [95% CI, -6.1 to 1.5]; P=0.045). The majority of survey respondents from either study group strongly agreed that having a treatment supporter positively influenced their health.

Conclusions: Long-term support from a nominated treatment supporter was associated with improved adherence, risk factor management, and medication use among individuals with hypertension.

Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01826019.

背景:HOPE 4 试验(心脏结果预防和评估 4)调查了在哥伦比亚和马来西亚实施的综合协作护理模式的有效性,该模式旨在降低高血压患者的心血管疾病风险。该干预措施的一项内容是提名一名治疗支持者,参与者可以选择一名家人或朋友协助他们进行治疗。本研究的目的是调查这些人对参与者疗效的影响,以及参与者与其治疗支持者之间的关系动态:分析对象包括 "希望 4 "干预小组中基线和 12 个月随访的参与者。他们被分为 "每次访问 "组(339 人)和 "结果 "组:各组中女性占多数(53% 对 62%),平均年龄分别为 63 岁和 66 岁。各组的原籍国不同(22% 对 86%;哥伦比亚)。每次就诊组的他汀类药物使用量在 12 个月内增加了 15.5%([95% CI, 6.2%-24.8%] P=0.004),而每次就诊组的他汀类药物使用量在 12 个月内减少了 0.045%([95% CI, 6.2%-24.8%] P=0.045)。无论哪个研究组,大多数调查对象都非常认同有一名治疗支持者会对他们的健康产生积极影响:被提名的治疗支持者的长期支持与高血压患者的依从性、危险因素管理和药物使用的改善有关:URL:https://www.clinicaltrials.gov;唯一标识符:NCT01826019。
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引用次数: 0
PREVENT Equations: A New Era in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment. PREVENT 等式:心血管疾病风险评估的新纪元。
IF 6.9 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.123.010763
Alexander C Razavi, Payal Kohli, Darren K McGuire, Seth S Martin, Tamar S Polonsky, John W McEvoy, Seamus P Whelton, Roger S Blumenthal
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引用次数: 0
Association of Traditional and Nontraditional Risk Factors in the Development of Strokes Among Young Adults by Sex and Age Group: A Retrospective Case-Control Study. 按性别和年龄组分列的传统和非传统风险因素与年轻人脑卒中发病的关系:一项回顾性病例对照研究。
IF 6.2 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.123.010307
Michelle H Leppert, Sharon N Poisson, Sharon Scarbro, Krithika Suresh, Lynda D Lisabeth, Jukka Putaala, Lee H Schwamm, Stacie L Daugherty, Cathy J Bradley, James F Burke, P Michael Ho

Background: Despite women having fewer traditional risk factors (eg, hypertension, diabetes), strokes are more common in women than men aged ≤45 years. This study examined the contributions of traditional and nontraditional risk factors (eg, migraine, thrombophilia) in the development of strokes among young adults.

Methods: This retrospective case-control study used Colorado's All Payer Claims Database (2012-2019). We identified index stroke events in young adults (aged 18-55 years), matched 1:3 to stroke-free controls, by (1) sex, (2) age±2 years, (3) insurance type, and (4) prestroke period. All traditional and nontraditional risk factors were identified from enrollment until a stroke or proxy-stroke date (defined as the prestroke period). Conditional logistic regression models stratified by sex and age group first assessed the association of stroke with counts of risk factors by type and then computed their individual and aggregated population attributable risks.

Results: We included 2618 cases (52% women; 73.3% ischemic strokes) and 7827 controls. Each additional traditional and nontraditional risk factors were associated with an increased risk of stroke in all sex and age groups. In adults aged 18 to 34 years, more strokes were associated with nontraditional (population attributable risk: 31.4% men and 42.7% women) than traditional risk factors (25.3% men and 33.3% women). The contribution of nontraditional risk factors declined with age (19.4% men and 27.9% women aged 45-55 years). The contribution of traditional risk factors peaked among patients aged 35 to 44 years (32.8% men and 39.7% women). Hypertension was the most important traditional risk factor and increased in contribution with age (population attributable risk: 27.8% men and 26.7% women aged 45 to 55 years). Migraine was the most important nontraditional risk factor and decreased in contribution with age (population attributable risk: 20.1% men and 34.5% women aged 18-35 years).

Conclusions: Nontraditional risk factors were as important as traditional risk factors in the development of strokes for both young men and women and have a stronger association with the development of strokes in adults younger than 35 years of age.

背景:尽管女性的传统风险因素(如高血压、糖尿病)较少,但中风在年龄≤45 岁的女性中比男性更常见。本研究探讨了传统风险因素和非传统风险因素(如偏头痛、血栓性疾病)在年轻人脑卒中发病中的作用:这项回顾性病例对照研究使用了科罗拉多州的所有支付方索赔数据库(2012-2019 年)。我们确定了年轻人(18-55 岁)的中风事件指数,并与无中风的对照组按 1:3 进行了配对,配对条件为:(1)性别;(2)年龄±2 岁;(3)保险类型;(4)中风前。所有传统和非传统的风险因素都是从入院到中风或代理中风日期(定义为中风前)进行识别的。按性别和年龄组分层的条件逻辑回归模型首先评估了中风与各类风险因素计数的相关性,然后计算了其个体和总体人群归因风险:我们纳入了 2618 例病例(52% 为女性;73.3% 为缺血性中风)和 7827 例对照。在所有性别和年龄组中,每个额外的传统和非传统风险因素都与中风风险的增加有关。在 18 至 34 岁的成年人中,与非传统风险因素(人群归因风险:31.4% 的男性和 42.7% 的女性)相关的中风人数多于传统风险因素(25.3% 的男性和 33.3% 的女性)。随着年龄的增长,非传统风险因素的比例有所下降(45-55 岁男性占 19.4%,女性占 27.9%)。传统风险因素在 35 至 44 岁的患者中占比最高(男性 32.8%,女性 39.7%)。高血压是最重要的传统风险因素,并且随着年龄的增长,其贡献率也在增加(人群归因风险:45至55岁男性为27.8%,女性为26.7%)。偏头痛是最重要的非传统风险因素,其贡献率随年龄增长而降低(18-35 岁人群的归因风险:男性为 20.1%,女性为 34.5%):结论:对于年轻男性和女性而言,非传统风险因素与传统风险因素在脑卒中发病中同样重要,并且与 35 岁以下成年人的脑卒中发病关系更为密切。
{"title":"Association of Traditional and Nontraditional Risk Factors in the Development of Strokes Among Young Adults by Sex and Age Group: A Retrospective Case-Control Study.","authors":"Michelle H Leppert, Sharon N Poisson, Sharon Scarbro, Krithika Suresh, Lynda D Lisabeth, Jukka Putaala, Lee H Schwamm, Stacie L Daugherty, Cathy J Bradley, James F Burke, P Michael Ho","doi":"10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.123.010307","DOIUrl":"10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.123.010307","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Despite women having fewer traditional risk factors (eg, hypertension, diabetes), strokes are more common in women than men aged ≤45 years. This study examined the contributions of traditional and nontraditional risk factors (eg, migraine, thrombophilia) in the development of strokes among young adults.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This retrospective case-control study used Colorado's All Payer Claims Database (2012-2019). We identified index stroke events in young adults (aged 18-55 years), matched 1:3 to stroke-free controls, by (1) sex, (2) age±2 years, (3) insurance type, and (4) prestroke period. All traditional and nontraditional risk factors were identified from enrollment until a stroke or proxy-stroke date (defined as the prestroke period). Conditional logistic regression models stratified by sex and age group first assessed the association of stroke with counts of risk factors by type and then computed their individual and aggregated population attributable risks.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We included 2618 cases (52% women; 73.3% ischemic strokes) and 7827 controls. Each additional traditional and nontraditional risk factors were associated with an increased risk of stroke in all sex and age groups. In adults aged 18 to 34 years, more strokes were associated with nontraditional (population attributable risk: 31.4% men and 42.7% women) than traditional risk factors (25.3% men and 33.3% women). The contribution of nontraditional risk factors declined with age (19.4% men and 27.9% women aged 45-55 years). The contribution of traditional risk factors peaked among patients aged 35 to 44 years (32.8% men and 39.7% women). Hypertension was the most important traditional risk factor and increased in contribution with age (population attributable risk: 27.8% men and 26.7% women aged 45 to 55 years). Migraine was the most important nontraditional risk factor and decreased in contribution with age (population attributable risk: 20.1% men and 34.5% women aged 18-35 years).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Nontraditional risk factors were as important as traditional risk factors in the development of strokes for both young men and women and have a stronger association with the development of strokes in adults younger than 35 years of age.</p>","PeriodicalId":49221,"journal":{"name":"Circulation-Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes","volume":" ","pages":"e010307"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11021148/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140289334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Examining the Impact of Layperson Rescuer Gender on the Receipt of Bystander CPR for Women in Cardiac Arrest. 研究非专业施救者性别对女性心脏骤停时接受旁观者心肺复苏术的影响。
IF 6.2 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.123.010249
Shelby K Shelton, John D Rice, Christopher E Knoepke, Daniel D Matlock, Edward P Havranek, Stacie L Daugherty, Sarah M Perman

Background: Women who suffer a witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest receive bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) less often than men. To understand this phenomenon, we queried whether there are differences in deterrents to providing CPR based on the rescuer's gender.

Methods: Participants were surveyed using a national crowdsourcing platform. Participants ranked the following 5 previously identified themes as reasons: rescuers are afraid to injure or hurt women; rescuers might have a misconception that women do not suffer cardiac arrest; rescuers are afraid to be accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment; rescuers have a fear of touching women or that their touch might be inappropriate; and rescuers think that women are faking it or being overdramatic. Participants were adult US residents able to correctly define CPR. Participants ranked the themes if the rescuer was gender unidentified, a man, and a woman, in variable order.

Results: In November 2018, 520 surveys were completed. The respondents identified as 42.3% women, 74.2% White, 10.4% Black, and 6.7% Hispanic. Approximately half (48.1%) of the cohort knew how to perform CPR, but only 7.9% had ever performed CPR. When the rescuer was identified as a man, survey participants ranked fear of sexual assault or sexual harassment and fear of touching women or that the touch might be inappropriate as the top reasons (36.2% and 34.0% of responses, respectively). Conversely, when the rescuer was identified as a woman, survey respondents reported fear of hurting or injuring as the top reason (41.2%).

Conclusions: Public perceptions as to why women receive less bystander CPR than men were different based on the gender of the rescuer. Participants reported that men rescuers would potentially be hindered by fears of accusations of sexual assault/harassment or inappropriate touch, while women rescuers would be deterred due to fears of causing physical injury.

背景:目击院外心脏骤停的女性接受旁观者心肺复苏(CPR)的频率低于男性。为了了解这一现象,我们询问了提供心肺复苏术的阻力是否因施救者的性别而存在差异:我们通过一个全国性的众包平台对参与者进行了调查。参与者将以下 5 个先前确定的主题列为原因:施救者害怕伤害或伤害女性;施救者可能误认为女性不会发生心脏骤停;施救者害怕被指控性侵犯或性骚扰;施救者害怕接触女性或他们的接触可能不恰当;施救者认为女性是假装的或过于夸张。参与者均为能够正确定义心肺复苏术的美国成年居民。如果施救者是性别不明、男性和女性,参与者会对主题进行排序,排序顺序可变:2018 年 11 月,共完成了 520 份调查问卷。受访者中女性占 42.3%,白人占 74.2%,黑人占 10.4%,西班牙裔占 6.7%。大约一半(48.1%)的受访者知道如何实施心肺复苏术,但只有 7.9% 的受访者曾经实施过心肺复苏术。当施救者被确认为男性时,调查参与者将害怕性侵犯或性骚扰以及害怕触摸女性或触摸可能不合适列为首要原因(分别占回答的 36.2% 和 34.0%)。相反,当施救者被确认为女性时,调查对象表示害怕伤害或受伤是首要原因(41.2%):公众对于女性比男性更少接受旁观者心肺复苏的原因的看法因施救者的性别而异。参与者报告说,男性施救者可能会因为害怕被指控性侵犯/骚扰或不适当的触摸而受到阻碍,而女性施救者则会因为害怕造成身体伤害而望而却步。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Vitamin K Antagonist Anticoagulation Benefit in People With Atrial Fibrillation Accounting for Competing Risks: Evidence From 12 Randomized Trials. 估算维生素 K 拮抗剂对心房颤动患者的抗凝疗效(考虑竞争风险):来自 12 项随机试验的证据。
IF 6.9 2区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.123.010269
Sachin J Shah, Carl van Walraven, Sun Young Jeon, John Boscardin, F D Richard Hobbs, Stuart J Connolly, Michael D Ezekowitz, Kenneth E Covinsky, Margaret C Fang, Daniel E Singer

Background: Patients with atrial fibrillation have a high mortality rate that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. The competing risk of death may affect the expected anticoagulant benefit. We determined if competing risks materially affect the guideline-endorsed estimate of anticoagulant benefit.

Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials that randomized patients with atrial fibrillation to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of VKAs to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using 2 methods-first using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA2DS2-VASc) and then again using a competing risk model that uses the same inputs as CHA2DS2-VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for nonlinear growth in benefit. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences varied by life expectancy.

Results: A total of 7933 participants (median age, 73 years, 36% women) had a median life expectancy of 8 years (interquartile range, 6-12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables and 43% were randomized to VKAs. The CHA2DS2-VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the competing risk model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% [interquartile range, 4.7%-10.0%] versus 5.2% [interquartile range, 3.5%-7.4%]; P<0.001). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA2DS2-VASc model - competing risk model 3-year risk) was -1.3% (95% CI, -1.3% to -1.2%); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 4.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-5.0%).

Conclusions: VKA anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reducing stroke risk. However, VKA benefits were misestimated with CHA2DS2-VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced when life expectancy was low and when the benefit was estimated over a multiyear horizon.

背景:心房颤动患者的死亡率很高,而这仅部分归因于血管方面的后果。死亡的竞争风险可能会影响预期的抗凝获益。我们确定了竞争性风险是否会对指南认可的抗凝剂获益估计值产生实质性影响:我们对 12 项随机对照试验进行了二次分析,这些试验将心房颤动患者随机分配给维生素 K 拮抗剂 (VKA) 或安慰剂或抗血小板药物。对于每位参与者,我们使用两种方法估算了 VKAs 预防中风或全身性栓塞的绝对风险降低率 (ARR):首先使用指南认可的模型 (CHA2DS2-VASc),然后再次使用竞争风险模型,该模型使用与 CHA2DS2-VASc 相同的输入,但考虑了死亡的竞争风险,并允许获益的非线性增长。我们比较了估计获益的绝对和相对差异,以及差异是否因预期寿命而异:共有 7933 名参与者(中位年龄为 73 岁,36% 为女性),根据合并症调整后的生命表确定,他们的中位预期寿命为 8 年(四分位间范围为 6-12 年),其中 43% 被随机分配使用 VKAs。与竞争风险模型相比,CHA2DS2-VASc 模型估计的 ARR 更大(3 年后的中位 ARR 为 6.9% [四分位间范围为 4.7%-10.0%] 对 5.2% [四分位间范围为 3.5%-7.4%];P2DS2-VASc模型-竞争风险模型3年风险)为-1.3%(95% CI,-1.3%至-1.2%);对于预期寿命处于最低十分位数的患者,3年ARR差异为4.7%(95% CI,4.5%至5.0%):结论:VKA 抗凝药在降低中风风险方面非常有效。结论:VKA 抗凝药在降低卒中风险方面效果显著,但 CHA2DS2-VASc 却错误地估计了 VKA 的疗效,因为 CHA2DS2-VASc 既没有考虑死亡的竞争风险,也没有考虑随时间推移治疗效果的下降。在预期寿命较低和估计多年获益时,高估最为明显。
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引用次数: 0
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Circulation-Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes
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