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COMPARISON OF SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD WITH DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD PREDICTION OF SALT SALES 单指数平滑法与双指数平滑法预测盐类销售的比较

Jusikom : Jurnal Sistem Informasi Ilmu Komputer

Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.34012/jurnalsisteminformasidanilmukomputer.v6i2.3366

Jesslyn Harly, Marlince Nababan, Lidya Haryati Bintang, Reyhan Achmad Rizal, Aisyah -

Predicting the quantity of product sales in the future aims to control the amount of existing product stock, so that the shortage or excess of product stock can be minimized. When the quantity of sales can be predicted accurately, the fulfillment of consumer demand can be managed in a timely manner and the company's cooperation with consumers is maintained properly so that the company can avoid losing sales and consumers. This study aims to analyze the accuracy of predicting the quantity of sales of salt using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method compared to using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method, so that a more accurate method will be obtained for predicting the quantity of sales. The results of testing the comparison of the level of accuracy can be done by evaluating the error value of the forecasting results with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The lowest MAPE result obtained is in the SES method when the parameter α = 0.054 with a MAPE result of 7.932% which means the accuracy value is very accurate. Whereas with the DES method the MAPE value is 28.145% while the parameter α = 0.845 β = 0.214 which means the value of accuracy is reasonable. Based on the MAPE results obtained using the two methods above, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate for use in predicting salt sales. Whereas with the DES method the MAPE value is 28.145% while the parameter α = 0.845 β = 0.214 which means the value of accuracy is reasonable. Based on the MAPE results obtained using the two methods above, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate for use in predicting salt sales. Whereas with the DES method the MAPE value is 28.145% while the parameter α = 0.845 β = 0.214 which means the value of accuracy is reasonable. Based on the MAPE results obtained using the two methods above, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate for use in predicting salt sales

预测未来产品销售数量的目的是控制现有产品库存的数量，使产品库存的不足或过剩最小化。当能够准确预测销售数量的时候，就可以及时管理消费者需求的满足，保持公司与消费者的良好合作，从而避免公司失去销售和消费者。本研究旨在分析单指数平滑法(SES)与双指数平滑法(DES)对盐类销售量预测的准确性，从而获得更准确的预测盐类销售量的方法。用平均绝对百分比误差(Mean Absolute Percentage error, MAPE)评价预测结果的误差值，可以检验准确度水平比较的结果。在参数α = 0.054时，SES法获得的MAPE结果最低，MAPE结果为7.932%，表明精度值非常准确。而DES方法的MAPE值为28.145%，参数α = 0.845 β = 0.214表明精度值合理。基于上述两种方法的MAPE结果，单指数平滑法在预测盐类销售方面更为准确。而DES方法的MAPE值为28.145%，参数α = 0.845 β = 0.214表明精度值合理。基于上述两种方法的MAPE结果，单指数平滑法在预测盐类销售方面更为准确。而DES方法的MAPE值为28.145%，参数α = 0.845 β = 0.214表明精度值合理。基于上述两种方法的MAPE结果，单指数平滑法在预测盐类销售方面更为准确

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