Motivated by an application about interhospital connections, we propose a modelling approach for data referred to a temporal network. The approach may be seen as an extension of the one recently proposed in Bianchi et al. [(2020). Longitudinal networks of dyadic relationships using latent trajectories: Evidence from the European interbank market. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 69(4), 711–739] and, in turn, of the popular p1 and p2 models by Holland and Leinhardt [(1981). An exponential family of probability distributions for directed graphs. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(373), 33–50] and van Duijn et al. [(2004). p2: A random effects model with covariates for directed graphs. Statistica Neerlandica, 58(2), 234–254], on which the latter is built. The proposed extension consists in the introduction of covariates and in the adoption of a hierarchical Bayesian inferential approach that shows advantages in the specific application. For Bayesian inference we rely on a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces samples from the posterior distribution of the model parameters. The application is based on original data on patient referral relations among 127 hospitals serving a large regional community of patients in Italy from 2014 to 2018. Results indicate that interhospital collaborative behaviours are primarily local and that collaborative attitudes vary at different time occasions of the considered period and in accordance with the level of competition faced by hospital organisations.
在一个关于医院间连接的应用程序的激励下，我们提出了一种涉及时间网络的数据建模方法。该方法可以被视为Bianchi等人最近提出的方法的扩展[(2020)]。使用潜在轨迹的二元关系的纵向网络:来自欧洲银行间市场的证据。皇家统计学会杂志:C辑，69(4)，711-739]，以及Holland和Leinhardt的流行的p1和p2模型[(1981)]。有向图的概率分布的指数族。统计学报，76(373)，33-50]及van Duijn et al.[2004]。带协变量的有向图随机效应模型。荷兰统计，58(2)，234-254]，后者是建立在此基础上的。提出的扩展包括引入协变量和采用分层贝叶斯推理方法，该方法在特定应用中显示出优势。对于贝叶斯推理，我们依靠马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗算法，该算法从模型参数的后验分布中产生样本。该应用程序基于2014年至2018年在意大利为大型区域患者社区服务的127家医院的患者转诊关系的原始数据。结果表明，医院间的合作行为主要是局部的，合作态度在研究期间的不同时间场合和医院组织所面临的竞争水平上有所不同。
{"title":"Temporal analysis of hospital network data by hierarchical Bayesian p2 models with covariates","authors":"F. Bartolucci, P. Li Donni, A. Mira","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad036","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Motivated by an application about interhospital connections, we propose a modelling approach for data referred to a temporal network. The approach may be seen as an extension of the one recently proposed in Bianchi et al. [(2020). Longitudinal networks of dyadic relationships using latent trajectories: Evidence from the European interbank market. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 69(4), 711–739] and, in turn, of the popular p1 and p2 models by Holland and Leinhardt [(1981). An exponential family of probability distributions for directed graphs. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(373), 33–50] and van Duijn et al. [(2004). p2: A random effects model with covariates for directed graphs. Statistica Neerlandica, 58(2), 234–254], on which the latter is built. The proposed extension consists in the introduction of covariates and in the adoption of a hierarchical Bayesian inferential approach that shows advantages in the specific application. For Bayesian inference we rely on a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces samples from the posterior distribution of the model parameters. The application is based on original data on patient referral relations among 127 hospitals serving a large regional community of patients in Italy from 2014 to 2018. Results indicate that interhospital collaborative behaviours are primarily local and that collaborative attitudes vary at different time occasions of the considered period and in accordance with the level of competition faced by hospital organisations.","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83837485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Written contribution to the Discussion of “Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human Decision-Making: Application to Pretrial Public Safety Assessment” by Kosuke Imai, Zhichao Jiang, D. JamesGreiner, Ryan Halen and Sooahn Shin","authors":"E. Hunsicker","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad018","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73213541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-22eCollection Date: 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad031
Shuchi Goyal, Mark S Handcock, Heide M Jackson, Michael S Rendall, Fiona C Yeung
Many demographic problems require models for partnership formation. We consider a model for matchings within a bipartite population where individuals have utility for people based on observed and unobserved characteristics. It represents both the availability of potential partners of different types and the preferences of individuals for such people. We develop an estimator for the preference parameters based on sample survey data on partnerships and population composition. We conduct simulation studies based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation showing that the estimator recovers preference parameters that are invariant under different population availabilities and has the correct confidence coverage.
{"title":"A practical revealed preference model for separating preferences and availability effects in marriage formation.","authors":"Shuchi Goyal, Mark S Handcock, Heide M Jackson, Michael S Rendall, Fiona C Yeung","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad031","DOIUrl":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad031","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Many demographic problems require models for partnership formation. We consider a model for matchings within a bipartite population where individuals have utility for people based on observed and unobserved characteristics. It represents both the availability of potential partners of different types and the preferences of individuals for such people. We develop an estimator for the preference parameters based on sample survey data on partnerships and population composition. We conduct simulation studies based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation showing that the estimator recovers preference parameters that are invariant under different population availabilities and has the correct confidence coverage.</p>","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10746550/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81885794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. Imai, Zhichao Jiang, D. James Greiner, R. Halen, Sooahn Shin
We thank the Research Section of the Royal Statistical Society for providing us with a valuable opportunity to present our paper and receive feedback from many scholars. Despite their diverse perspectives, we believe that all of our discussants are in agreement about the need to develop new statistical methodology to better analyze algorithm-assisted human decision making. While the use of algorithms has become ubiquitous in today’s society, we — humans — still make many consequential decisions with the help of algorithms. As Kumar and VanderWeele noted, such a hybrid decision-making system may allows one to combine human experiences and knowledge with algorithmic recommendations, possibly leading to improved decisions. Moreover, even if fully algorithmic decision-making is more optimal than a hybrid system, we may still prefer the latter because we want to hold humans, rather than algorithms, accountable for the consequences of decisions. The importance of algorithm-assisted human decision making motivated us to develop a set of methodological tools to evaluate and understand how algorithmic recommendations affect human decisions. As echoed by Cruz Cortéz and Gosh, our study sharply contrasts with much of the existing studies whose focus has been the accuracy and fairness of algorithms themselves. We hope other researchers follow up on this important research agenda. Below, we respond to specific comments raised by the discussants.
{"title":"Reply to the discussants of “Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human Decision-Making: Application to Pretrial Public Safety Assessment.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, Forthcoming","authors":"K. Imai, Zhichao Jiang, D. James Greiner, R. Halen, Sooahn Shin","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad023","url":null,"abstract":"We thank the Research Section of the Royal Statistical Society for providing us with a valuable opportunity to present our paper and receive feedback from many scholars. Despite their diverse perspectives, we believe that all of our discussants are in agreement about the need to develop new statistical methodology to better analyze algorithm-assisted human decision making. While the use of algorithms has become ubiquitous in today’s society, we — humans — still make many consequential decisions with the help of algorithms. As Kumar and VanderWeele noted, such a hybrid decision-making system may allows one to combine human experiences and knowledge with algorithmic recommendations, possibly leading to improved decisions. Moreover, even if fully algorithmic decision-making is more optimal than a hybrid system, we may still prefer the latter because we want to hold humans, rather than algorithms, accountable for the consequences of decisions. The importance of algorithm-assisted human decision making motivated us to develop a set of methodological tools to evaluate and understand how algorithmic recommendations affect human decisions. As echoed by Cruz Cortéz and Gosh, our study sharply contrasts with much of the existing studies whose focus has been the accuracy and fairness of algorithms themselves. We hope other researchers follow up on this important research agenda. Below, we respond to specific comments raised by the discussants.","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90481376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments on the paper “Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human-Decision-Making: Application to Pretrial Public Safety Assessment” by Kosuke Imai, Z. Jiang, D J Greiner, R. Halen and S. Shin","authors":"K. Kumar","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad021","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84877816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Discussion on: Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human Decision-Making: Application to Pretrial Public Safety Assessment","authors":"P. Conti","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad027","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77791104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Commentary on “Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human-Decision Making: Application to Pretrial Public Safety Assessment”. Kosuke Imai, Zhichao Jiang, James Greiner, Ryan Halen, Sooahn Shin","authors":"Efrén Cruz Cortés, Debashis Ghosh","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad017","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77901065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Discussion on the paper titled “Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human Decision-Making: Application to the Pretrial Safety Assessment”","authors":"Priyantha Wijayatunga","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88171367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Discussion of ‘Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human Decision-Making: Application to Pretrial Public Safety Assessment’, part 1","authors":"Aaron L Sarveta, Mats J Stensruda","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad015","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82898481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Discussion of ‘Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human Decision-Making: Application to Pretrial Public Safety Assessment’, part 2","authors":"M. J. Stensrud, V. Didelez, Aaron L Sarvet","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad016","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82348809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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