Pub Date : 2023-01-25DOI: 10.15407/econforecast2022.04.054
Yaryna Yuryk
The article studies the functioning of Ukraine's labor market in 2019–2021 through the prism of the status flows of labor force, for which various methodological techniques of analytical research are consistently applied, which, complementing each other, allow analyzing the flows from different angles of view. So, using micro data on labor force indicators and their characteristics, probabilistic matrices of transitions of Ukraine's population between employment, unemployment and economic inactivity are constructed, assuming that such transitions occur according to the Markov process. As a result, the scope, nature and dominant vectors of the movements of Ukrainians between the three main statuses on the labor market are revealed. Based on the algorithms for calculating Shorrock's indices – proxy indices of mobility, the author carries out an integral assessment of the intensity of inter-status movement in Ukraine's labor market. A similar assessment for a number of European countries makes it possible to propose a basis for cross-country comparison of the level of mobility in Ukraine. Using economic-mathematical modeling of multiple choice, the author reveals socio-demographic factors determining the individual's status on Ukraine's labor market, and in so doing also answers the question of stability of the observed status. It is shown that the analysis of inter-status mobility of labor force provides a powerful basis for better understanding of the functioning of the labor market, characterizes the mechanisms of adaptation of the latter and allows observing the direction and intensity of flows behind any specific change in gross employment, unemployment or economic inactivity, which makes relevant policy measures on the labor market more targeted. In particular, since the analyzed period was marked by increased unemployment in Ukraine, the author establishes the role of flows in the above mentioned dynamics and in the distribution of the risk of job loss, taking into account such socio-demographic characteristics of individuals as gender, age and education level. Understanding such connections is important for developing high quality solutions aimed at reducing unemployment in the country.
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Pub Date : 2023-01-25DOI: 10.15407/econforecast2022.04.094
Svitlana Brus, Anatolii Drobyazko
Starting with the global pandemic crisis, whose consequences included the disruption of logistics chains and the suspension in a number of economic sectors, the world economy is experiencing increasingly large losses. Full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation by many countries have made the global economy even more unstable and problematic. Macroeconomic problems are accumulating in the world, which will be a long term trend. The article deals with Ukraine’s domestic financial and monetary sphere since the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014 and in the context of the post-pandemic global crisis. In the first months of the war, Ukraine – being a small open commodity based economy –managed to maintain the stability of money circulation and prevented panic in the financial markets, in contrast to 1998, 2008 and 2014. The full-scale war continued the economic crisis initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The interaction of the two crises deepens imbalances in both the global and Ukrainian economic and financial systems. As manifestations of the crisis, the article examines the disrupted supply chains of goods and raw materials, and the negative impact on the companies' solvency due to reduced demand. On the other hand, with their financial injections, the governments prevent the rapid bankruptcy of unviable firms in order to preserve employment, which exposes the economy to new risks. The article outlines expected developments in Ukraine’s financial system due to long war and the ensuing macroeconomic losses and uncertainty. Recommendations are given on urgent measures to support the banking sector in order to increase its liquidity and solvency under the conditions shaped in 2022. The authors note that in the fight against inflation, it is necessary to take into account the increased energy prices, the disrupted logistics chains for commodity producers, the decreased export revenue, and the increased prices for critical imported goods. Anti-inflationary measures under such conditions could lead to stagnation and phase out domestic production.
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Pub Date : 2023-01-25DOI: 10.15407/econforecast2022.04.035
Victoria Nebrat
The development of a strategy for post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy determines the advisability and importance of taking into account international experience. An urgent task is to assess the possibility to implement those economic policy tools that have proven their practical effectiveness. At the same time, it is necessary to define the reservations and risks associated with the implementation of certain aspects in the recovery policy. The purpose of the article is to identify institutional factors and economic mechanisms that provided the successful post-war recovery and development of the Republic of Korea in the 1960s and 1970s. Revealing the positive experience of the restructuring involves the account of historical conditions, and the role of foreign aid and internal sources of economic growth. The author has used the methods of comparative and problem-logical analysis, the institutional-evolutionary approach, the principle of integrability as a basis for the synthesis of empirical and theoretical knowledge, and the methodological approach of F. List regarding the historical conditioning of forms of economic nationalism. It is established that after the end of the Korean War, in 1953–1960, domestic policy and foreign aid were focused on solving the primary tasks of overcoming devastation and hunger. The author considers the forms of interaction between the state, the business environment and foreign aid in ensuring the recovery and development of the economy of the Republic of Korea in the 1960s and 1970s. Contrary to the recommendations aimed at liberalizing the economy with a focus on the development of traditional industries, the government of Park Chung-hee gradually implemented a national strategy aimed at industrialization and achieving global competitiveness on high-tech markets. This was facilitated by the introduction of the national planning system, the financial strategy of public-private partnership, and the support for export-oriented industrial production. The agrarian reform, focused on the development of highly productive family farming, contributed to the consolidation of food self-sufficiency and expansion of the domestic market. The strict policy of the redistribution of donor funds by the state provided a so-called export discipline for big business, thanks to which the national corporations - chaebols - became the drivers of investment and innovation based modernization of the economy. The author defines the main components of the Republic of Korea's success in realizing the national interests of economic development under the conditions of foreign aid in post-war reconstruction. An assessment is made of the possibility and expediency of using South Korean experience in Ukraine.
{"title":"Post-war economic recovery policy: experience of the Republic of Korea","authors":"Victoria Nebrat","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.04.035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.04.035","url":null,"abstract":"The development of a strategy for post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy determines the advisability and importance of taking into account international experience. An urgent task is to assess the possibility to implement those economic policy tools that have proven their practical effectiveness. At the same time, it is necessary to define the reservations and risks associated with the implementation of certain aspects in the recovery policy. The purpose of the article is to identify institutional factors and economic mechanisms that provided the successful post-war recovery and development of the Republic of Korea in the 1960s and 1970s. Revealing the positive experience of the restructuring involves the account of historical conditions, and the role of foreign aid and internal sources of economic growth. The author has used the methods of comparative and problem-logical analysis, the institutional-evolutionary approach, the principle of integrability as a basis for the synthesis of empirical and theoretical knowledge, and the methodological approach of F. List regarding the historical conditioning of forms of economic nationalism. It is established that after the end of the Korean War, in 1953–1960, domestic policy and foreign aid were focused on solving the primary tasks of overcoming devastation and hunger. The author considers the forms of interaction between the state, the business environment and foreign aid in ensuring the recovery and development of the economy of the Republic of Korea in the 1960s and 1970s. Contrary to the recommendations aimed at liberalizing the economy with a focus on the development of traditional industries, the government of Park Chung-hee gradually implemented a national strategy aimed at industrialization and achieving global competitiveness on high-tech markets. This was facilitated by the introduction of the national planning system, the financial strategy of public-private partnership, and the support for export-oriented industrial production. The agrarian reform, focused on the development of highly productive family farming, contributed to the consolidation of food self-sufficiency and expansion of the domestic market. The strict policy of the redistribution of donor funds by the state provided a so-called export discipline for big business, thanks to which the national corporations - chaebols - became the drivers of investment and innovation based modernization of the economy. The author defines the main components of the Republic of Korea's success in realizing the national interests of economic development under the conditions of foreign aid in post-war reconstruction. An assessment is made of the possibility and expediency of using South Korean experience in Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":500930,"journal":{"name":"Economy and forecasting","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136082673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-25DOI: 10.15407/econforecast2022.04.005
Olena Salikhova, Oleh Krehivskyi
In 2022, Ukrainians are experiencing the most tragic events since the Second World War - the full-scale invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine has led to numerous casualties, the destruction of cities, and the disruption of infrastructure and industrial facilities. Since the first days of the war, the dependence on the industrial imports (primarily for military purposes) became obvious, as well as the fact that the ensuing socio-economic crisis cannot be overcome with domestic resources alone - both now and even after the end of the war. This prompts the search for mechanisms to ensure the stability and recovery of Ukraine's economy. The purpose of the article is to generalize the global experience of prioritizing the industry in the state policy of the leading countries of the world under the conditions of severe tests, to illustrate the implementation by the state of the functions speeding up economic recovery; and to propose conclusions and recommendations for Ukraine. The article shows the place of industry in the policy of recovery, gaining economic independence and increasing the country's power. Using historical examples, the authors demonstrated that during 300 years the state has influenced the industry through targeted political levers and institutional frameworks, generating the optimal results of measures aimed at restructuring to overcome the consequences of wars, epidemics and crises. It is substantiated that under the severe ordeals, the state has played a leading role in economic recovery, implementing a number of functions - administration and moderation, stimulation and catalysis, integration and cooperation, entrepreneurship and consumption, conservation and protection - to speed up the development of national industry as a source of the stabilization of employment, domestic and foreign investment, inflation, foreign trade and the financial sector, contributing to national social balance and well-being. The authors propose a conceptual approach to the functions of the state during post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy, ensuring economic stability and growth based on the national industry.
{"title":"The state in the post-war industrial recovery and economic renewal: historical parallels and approaches for Ukraine","authors":"Olena Salikhova, Oleh Krehivskyi","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.04.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"In 2022, Ukrainians are experiencing the most tragic events since the Second World War - the full-scale invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine has led to numerous casualties, the destruction of cities, and the disruption of infrastructure and industrial facilities. Since the first days of the war, the dependence on the industrial imports (primarily for military purposes) became obvious, as well as the fact that the ensuing socio-economic crisis cannot be overcome with domestic resources alone - both now and even after the end of the war. This prompts the search for mechanisms to ensure the stability and recovery of Ukraine's economy. The purpose of the article is to generalize the global experience of prioritizing the industry in the state policy of the leading countries of the world under the conditions of severe tests, to illustrate the implementation by the state of the functions speeding up economic recovery; and to propose conclusions and recommendations for Ukraine. The article shows the place of industry in the policy of recovery, gaining economic independence and increasing the country's power. Using historical examples, the authors demonstrated that during 300 years the state has influenced the industry through targeted political levers and institutional frameworks, generating the optimal results of measures aimed at restructuring to overcome the consequences of wars, epidemics and crises. It is substantiated that under the severe ordeals, the state has played a leading role in economic recovery, implementing a number of functions - administration and moderation, stimulation and catalysis, integration and cooperation, entrepreneurship and consumption, conservation and protection - to speed up the development of national industry as a source of the stabilization of employment, domestic and foreign investment, inflation, foreign trade and the financial sector, contributing to national social balance and well-being. The authors propose a conceptual approach to the functions of the state during post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy, ensuring economic stability and growth based on the national industry.","PeriodicalId":500930,"journal":{"name":"Economy and forecasting","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136082676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-25DOI: 10.15407/econforecast2022.04.108
Svitlana Chorna
Financial security is characterized by the state's ability to ensure stability of the country's financial and economic development and includes the security of various economic activities and spheres of social life. The article assesses the security of the components of Ukraine’s financial sector and calculates the overall level of financial security in this country. The author considers the current mechanism for determining the level of financial security. To date, in Ukraine, the Methodology for determining the level of financial security is in force, which is approved by the Ministry of Economy based on the "Methodological recommendations for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine" created according to a quantitative study of indicators characterizing the level of Ukraine’s overall economic security and that of financial security as its priority component. Calculated security levels of the financial sectors, namely those of the banking sector and the non-banking financial sector, as well as debt, budget, currency and monetary security. The most problematic is the debt sector whose security level averages 16.9% for the analyzed period. The overall level of financial security has a downward trend (44% in 2021). Ukraine's economy is not protected from financial threats and imbalances. The author identifies a few shortcomings in the above mentioned Methodology. As it was developed in 2013, its indicators no longer reflect the real situatioin in the country, while its methods mainly focus on analyzing financial indicators and ignore non-financial information, external factors, and the impact excerted on overall financial security by its individual components. The article points to the need to improve the mechanism of assessing the level of national financial security and provides a series of corresponding proposals.
{"title":"An assessment of Ukraine’s financial security: sectoral breakdown and general level","authors":"Svitlana Chorna","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.04.108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.04.108","url":null,"abstract":"Financial security is characterized by the state's ability to ensure stability of the country's financial and economic development and includes the security of various economic activities and spheres of social life. The article assesses the security of the components of Ukraine’s financial sector and calculates the overall level of financial security in this country. The author considers the current mechanism for determining the level of financial security. To date, in Ukraine, the Methodology for determining the level of financial security is in force, which is approved by the Ministry of Economy based on the \"Methodological recommendations for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine\" created according to a quantitative study of indicators characterizing the level of Ukraine’s overall economic security and that of financial security as its priority component. Calculated security levels of the financial sectors, namely those of the banking sector and the non-banking financial sector, as well as debt, budget, currency and monetary security. The most problematic is the debt sector whose security level averages 16.9% for the analyzed period. The overall level of financial security has a downward trend (44% in 2021). Ukraine's economy is not protected from financial threats and imbalances. The author identifies a few shortcomings in the above mentioned Methodology. As it was developed in 2013, its indicators no longer reflect the real situatioin in the country, while its methods mainly focus on analyzing financial indicators and ignore non-financial information, external factors, and the impact excerted on overall financial security by its individual components. The article points to the need to improve the mechanism of assessing the level of national financial security and provides a series of corresponding proposals.","PeriodicalId":500930,"journal":{"name":"Economy and forecasting","volume":"127 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136082672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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