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Beyond Rationality: Unveiling the Role of Animal Spirits and Inflation Extrapolation in Central Bank Communication of the US 超越理性:揭示动物精神和通货膨胀推断在美国中央银行沟通中的作用
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: arxiv-2409.10938
Arpan Chakraborty
Modern macroeconomic models, particularly those grounded in RationalExpectation Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), operate under theassumption of fully rational decision-making. This paper examines the impact ofbehavioral factors, particularly 'animal spirits' (emotional and psychologicalinfluences on economic decisions) and 'inflation extrapolators', on thecommunication index/sentiment index of the US Federal Reserve. Utilizingsimulations from a behavioral New Keynesian model alongside real-world dataderived from Federal Reserve speeches, the study employs an Auto-RegressiveDistributed Lag (ARDL) technique to analyze the interplay between thesefactors. The findings indicate that while the fraction of inflationextrapolators do not significantly affect the Fed's sentiment index, variousaspects of animal spirits exert a notable impact. This suggests that not onlyis the US output gap influenced by animal spirits, but the Federal Reserve'scommunication is also substantially shaped by these behavioral factors. Thishighlights the limitations of rational expectation DSGE models and underscoresthe importance of incorporating behavioral insights to achieve a more nuancedunderstanding of economic dynamics and central bank communication.
现代宏观经济模型,尤其是以理性预期动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)为基础的模型,都是在完全理性决策的假设下运行的。本文研究了行为因素,尤其是 "动物精神"(对经济决策的情绪和心理影响)和 "通胀外推 "对美国联邦储备局通信指数/情绪指数的影响。该研究利用新凯恩斯主义行为模型的模拟结果以及从美联储演讲中获取的真实数据,采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)技术分析了这些因素之间的相互作用。研究结果表明,虽然通胀外推器的比例对美联储的情绪指数影响不大,但动物精神的各个方面却产生了明显的影响。这表明,不仅美国的产出缺口受到动物精神的影响,美联储的沟通也在很大程度上受到这些行为因素的影响。这凸显了理性预期 DSGE 模型的局限性,并强调了纳入行为洞察力以实现对经济动态和中央银行沟通更细致入微的理解的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Approximately Optimal Auctions With a Strong Bidder 有强势投标人的近似最优拍卖
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: arxiv-2409.11048
Luca Anderlini, GaOn Kim
We consider auctions with N+1 bidders. Of these, N are symmetric and N+1 is"sufficiently strong" relative to the others. The auction is a "tournament" inwhich the first N players bid to win the right to compete with N+1. The bids ofthe first N players are binding and the highest bidder proceeds to asecond-price competition with N+1. When N+1's values converge in distribution to an atom above the upper end ofthe distribution of the N bidders and the rest of the distribution is drainedaway from low values sufficiently slowly, the auction's expected revenue isarbitrarily close to the one obtained in a Myerson (1981) optimal auction. The tournament design is "detail free" in the sense that no specificknowledge of the distributions is needed in addition to the fact that bidderN+1 is stronger than the others as required. In particular, no additionalinformation about the value of the atom is needed. This is important sincemis-calibrating by a small amount an attempt to implement the optimal auctioncan lead to large losses in revenue. We provide an interpretation of these results as possibly providingguidelines to a seller on how to strategically "populate" auctions with asingle bidder even when only weaker bidders are available.
我们考虑有 N+1 个投标人的拍卖。其中 N 个是对称的,N+1 相对于其他竞拍者 "足够强大"。拍卖是一场 "锦标赛",前 N 个竞标者通过竞标赢得与 N+1 竞争的权利。前 N 个参与者的出价具有约束力,出价最高者将进入与 N+1 的第二轮价格竞争。当 N+1 的价值在分布上收敛到高于 N 个出价者分布上限的原子,且分布的其余部分足够缓慢地从低价值中抽离时,拍卖的预期收益就会任意地接近 Myerson(1981)最优拍卖中的收益。锦标赛的设计是 "无细节 "的,因为除了出价人 N+1 比其他出价人更强这一事实外,不需要任何关于分布的具体知识。特别是,不需要关于原子价值的额外信息。这一点非常重要,因为在尝试实施最优拍卖时,如果误差很小,就会导致收益的巨大损失。我们对这些结果的解释是,即使只有较弱的出价人,我们也可以为卖方提供指南,指导其如何有策略地 "填充 "拍卖中的单个出价人。
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引用次数: 0
Expert Classification Aggregation 专家分类汇总
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: arxiv-2409.11033
Federico Fioravanti
We consider the problem where a set of individuals has to classify $m$objects into $p$ categories by aggregating the individual classifications, andno category can be left empty. An aggregator satisfies emph{Expertise} ifindividuals are decisive either over the classification of a given object, orthe classification into a given category. We show that requiring an aggregatorto satisfy emph{Expertise} and be either unanimous or independent leads tonumerous impossibility results.
我们考虑的问题是,一组个体必须通过汇总个体的分类,将 $m$ 物体归入 $p$ 类别,且任何类别都不能为空。如果个体对给定对象的分类或给定类别的分类具有决定性作用,那么聚合器就满足了 emph{专长}。我们证明,要求聚合器满足emph{Expertise}并且是一致的或独立的,会导致许多不可能性结果。
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引用次数: 0
A General Equilibrium Study of Venture Capitalists' Effort on Entrepreneurship 风险资本家创业努力的一般均衡研究
Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: arxiv-2409.09960
Liukun Wu
In this paper, I propose a new general equilibrium model that explainsstylized facts about venture capitalists' impact on their portfolio firms.Venture capitalists can help increase firms' productivity, yet they faceincreasing entry costs to enter. I characterize steady state effort choice,entry threshold, and mass of venture capitalists, and show how they areaffected by change in upfront investment, interest rate, and entry costs. Thekey contribution is that public policy to stimulate startups by subsidizingupfront investments or reducing interest cost have limited success if notaccompanied by an increasing supply of experts who can improve business ideas.
在本文中,我提出了一个新的一般均衡模型,用以解释风险资本家对其所投资企业的影响。风险资本家可以帮助提高企业的生产率,但他们面临着越来越高的进入成本。我描述了风险资本家的稳态努力选择、进入门槛和质量,并说明了它们如何受到前期投资、利率和进入成本变化的影响。本文的主要贡献在于,如果没有越来越多的专家来改善商业创意,那么通过补贴前期投资或降低利息成本来刺激初创企业的公共政策将难以取得成功。
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引用次数: 0
The Extreme Points of Fusions 融合的极致点
Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: arxiv-2409.10779
Andreas Kleiner, Benny Moldovanu, Philipp Strack, Mark Whitmeyer
Our work explores fusions, the multidimensional counterparts ofmean-preserving contractions and their extreme and exposed points. We reveal anelegant geometric/combinatorial structure for these objects. Of particular noteis the connection between Lipschitz-exposed points (measures that are uniqueoptimizers of Lipschitz-continuous objectives) and power diagrams, which aredivisions of a space into convex polyhedral ``cells'' according to a weightedproximity criterion. These objects are frequently seen in nature--in cellstructures in biological systems, crystal and plant growth patterns, andterritorial division in animal habitats--and, as we show, provide the essentialstructure of Lipschitz-exposed fusions. We apply our results to severalquestions concerning categorization.
我们的研究探索了融合、均值保留收缩的多维对应物及其极值和暴露点。我们揭示了这些对象的优雅几何/组合结构。尤其值得注意的是利普切茨暴露点(利普切茨连续目标的唯一优化量)与幂图之间的联系,幂图是根据加权临近准则将空间划分为凸多面体 "单元"。这些对象在自然界中经常出现--如生物系统中的细胞结构、晶体和植物的生长模式以及动物栖息地的领土划分--正如我们所展示的,它们提供了李普齐兹暴露融合的基本结构。我们将我们的结果应用于几个有关分类的问题。
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引用次数: 0
A Statistical Equilibrium Approach to Adam Smith's Labor Theory of Value 亚当-斯密劳动价值论的统计均衡方法
Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: arxiv-2409.10402
Ellis Scharfenaker, Bruno Theodosio, Duncan K. Foley
Adam Smith's inquiry into the emergence and stability of theself-organization of the division of labor in commodity production and exchangeis considered using statistical equilibrium methods from statistical physics.We develop a statistical equilibrium model of the distribution of independentdirect producers in a hub-and-spoke framework that predicts both the center ofgravity of producers across lines of production as well as the endogenousfluctuations between lines of production that arise from Smith's concept of"perfect liberty". The ergodic distribution of producers implies a long-runbalancing of "advantages to disadvantages" across lines of employment andgravitation of market prices around Smith's natural prices.
亚当-斯密对商品生产和交换中劳动分工自组织的出现和稳定性的探索,是利用统计物理学中的统计均衡方法进行研究的。我们在一个 "枢纽-辐条 "框架中建立了一个独立直接生产者分布的统计均衡模型,该模型既预测了生产者在各生产线上的重心,也预测了斯密的 "完全自由 "概念所产生的各生产线之间的内生波动。生产者的遍历分布意味着不同就业线之间 "优势对劣势 "的长期平衡,以及市场价格围绕斯密自然价格的重力作用。
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引用次数: 0
Balancing Selection Efficiency and Social Costs in Selective Contests 在选择性竞赛中平衡选择效率和社会成本
Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: arxiv-2409.09768
Penghuan Yan
Selective contests can impair participants' overall welfare inovercompetitive environments, such as school admissions. This paper models thesituation as an optimal contest design problem with binary actions, treatingeffort costs as societal costs incurred to achieve a desired level ofselectivity. We provide a characterization for the feasible set of selectionefficiency and societal cost in selective contests by establishing theirrelationship with feasible equilibrium strategies. We find that selectionefficiency and contestants' welfare are complementary, i.e. it is almostimpossible to improve one without sacrificing the other. We derive the optimalequilibrium outcome given the feasible set and characterize the correspondingoptimal contest design. Our analysis demonstrates that it is always optimal fora contest designer who is sufficiently concerned with societal cost tointentionally introduce randomness into the contest. Furthermore, we show thatthe designer can optimize any linear payoff function by adjusting a singleparameter related to the intensity of randomness, without altering the specificstructure of the contest.
在学校招生等过度竞争的环境中,选择性竞赛会损害参与者的整体福利。本文将这种情况建模为具有二元行动的最优竞赛设计问题,并将努力成本视为为达到理想的选择性水平而产生的社会成本。通过建立选择性竞赛中的选择效率和社会成本与可行均衡策略之间的关系,我们提供了选择性竞赛中选择效率和社会成本可行集的特征。我们发现,选择效率和参赛者的福利是互补的,即几乎不可能在不牺牲一个的情况下提高另一个。我们得出了给定可行集的最优均衡结果,并描述了相应的最优竞赛设计。我们的分析表明,对于充分关注社会成本的竞赛设计者来说,在竞赛中有意引入随机性总是最优的。此外,我们还证明,设计者可以通过调整一个与随机性强度相关的参数来优化任何线性报酬函数,而无需改变竞赛的具体结构。
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引用次数: 0
On the Viability of Open-Source Financial Rails: Economic Security of Permissionless Consensus 论开放源代码的金融轨道的可行性:无许可共识的经济安全
Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: arxiv-2409.08951
Jacob D. Leshno, Elaine Shi, Rafael Pass
Bitcoin demonstrated the possibility of a financial ledger that operateswithout the need for a trusted central authority. However, concerns persistregarding its security and considerable energy consumption. We assess theconsensus protocols that underpin Bitcoin's functionality, questioning whetherthey can ensure economically meaningful security while maintaining apermissionless design that allows free entry of operators. We answer thisaffirmatively by constructing a protocol that guarantees economic security andpreserves Bitcoin's permissionless design. This protocol's security does notdepend on monetary payments to miners or immense electricity consumption, whichour analysis suggests are ineffective. Our framework integrates economic theorywith distributed systems theory, and highlights the role of the protocol's usercommunity.
比特币展示了无需可信中央机构即可运行的金融分类账的可能性。然而,人们对比特币的安全性和可观的能源消耗一直存在担忧。我们对支撑比特币功能的共识协议进行了评估,质疑它们是否能在确保经济意义上的安全性的同时,保持允许操作者自由进入的无权限设计。我们通过构建一个既能保证经济安全,又能保留比特币无权限设计的协议,肯定地回答了这个问题。该协议的安全性并不依赖于对矿工的货币支付或巨大的电力消耗,而我们的分析表明这些都是无效的。我们的框架整合了经济理论和分布式系统理论,并强调了协议用户群的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Inertial Coordination Games 惯性协调游戏
Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: arxiv-2409.08145
Andrew Koh, Ricky Li, Kei Uzui
We analyze inertial coordination games: dynamic coordination games with anendogenously changing state that depends on (i) a persistent fundamental thatplayers privately learn about; and (ii) past play. We give a tightcharacterization of how the speed of learning shapes equilibrium dynamics: therisk-dominant action is selected in the limit if and only if learning is slowsuch that posterior precisions grow sub-quadratically. This generalizes resultsfrom static global games and endows them with an alternate learning foundation.Conversely, when learning is fast, equilibrium dynamics exhibit persistence andlimit play is shaped by initial play. Whenever the risk dominant equilibrium isselected, the path of play undergoes a sudden transition when signals areprecise, and a gradual transition when signals are noisy.
我们分析了惯性协调博弈:具有内生变化状态的动态协调博弈,这种状态取决于:(i) 玩家私下了解的持久基本面;(ii) 过去的博弈。我们对学习速度如何影响均衡动态给出了一个严密的描述:当且仅当学习速度很慢,以至于后验精确度呈亚四次方增长时,才会在极限中选择风险占优的行动。这概括了静态全局博弈的结果,并赋予它们另一种学习基础。相反,当学习速度快时,均衡动态表现出持久性,极限博弈受初始博弈的影响。每当选择风险主导均衡时,当信号精确时,博弈路径会突然转变,而当信号嘈杂时,博弈路径会逐渐转变。
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引用次数: 0
Strictly Proper Scoring Mechanisms Without Expected Arbitrage 没有预期套利的严格适当的评分机制
Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: arxiv-2409.07046
Jack Edwards
When eliciting forecasts from a group of experts, it is important to rewardpredictions so that market participants are incentivized to tell the truth.Existing mechanisms partially accomplish this but remain susceptible to groupsof experts colluding to increase their expected reward, meaning that noaggregation of predictions can be fully trusted to represent the true beliefsof forecasters. This paper presents two novel scoring mechanisms which elicittruthful forecasts from any group of experts, even if they can collude oraccess each other's predictions. The key insight of this approach is arandomization component which maintains strict properness but prevents expertsfrom coordinating dishonest reports in advance. These mechanisms are strictlyproper and do not admit expected arbitrage, resolving an open question in thefield.
现有的机制虽然部分实现了这一目标,但仍然容易受到专家组串通以提高预期回报的影响,这意味着没有任何一种预测集合能够完全代表预测者的真实想法。本文提出了两种新颖的评分机制,它们可以从任何一组专家那里获得真实的预测,即使他们可以相互串通或获取对方的预测。这种方法的关键之处在于随机化组件,它既能保持严格的正确性,又能防止专家事先协调不诚实的报告。这些机制是严格适当的,不允许预期套利,解决了该领域的一个未决问题。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - ECON - Theoretical Economics
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