Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.5547/01956574.45.4.dbaj
Dusan Bajatovic, Deniz Erdemlioglu, and Nikola Gradojevic
Abstract: This paper studies the forecast accuracy and explainability of a battery of day-ahead (Henry Hub and Title Transfer Facility (TTF)) natural gas price and volatility models. The results demonstrate the dominance of non-linear, non-parametric models with deep structure relative to various competing model specifications. By employing the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach, we document that the price of natural gas is formed strategically based on crude oil and electricity prices. While the conditional volatility of natural gas returns is driven by long-memory dynamics and crude oil volatility, the informativeness of the electricity predictor has improved over the most recent volatile time period. Although we reveal that predictive non-linear relationships are inherently complex and time-varying, our findings in general support the notion that natural gas, crude oil and electricity are interconnected. Focusing on the periods when markets experienced sharp structural breaks and extreme volatility (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict), we show that deep learning models provide better adaptability and lead to significantly more accurate forecast performance.
{"title":"Drilling Deeper: Non-Linear, Non-Parametric Natural Gas Price and Volatility Forecasting","authors":"Dusan Bajatovic, Deniz Erdemlioglu, and Nikola Gradojevic","doi":"10.5547/01956574.45.4.dbaj","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.4.dbaj","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: This paper studies the forecast accuracy and explainability of a battery of day-ahead (Henry Hub and Title Transfer Facility (TTF)) natural gas price and volatility models. The results demonstrate the dominance of non-linear, non-parametric models with deep structure relative to various competing model specifications. By employing the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach, we document that the price of natural gas is formed strategically based on crude oil and electricity prices. While the conditional volatility of natural gas returns is driven by long-memory dynamics and crude oil volatility, the informativeness of the electricity predictor has improved over the most recent volatile time period. Although we reveal that predictive non-linear relationships are inherently complex and time-varying, our findings in general support the notion that natural gas, crude oil and electricity are interconnected. Focusing on the periods when markets experienced sharp structural breaks and extreme volatility (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict), we show that deep learning models provide better adaptability and lead to significantly more accurate forecast performance.","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142260255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.5547/01956574.45.4.jgea
Juan Gea-Bermúdez, Lena Kitzing, and Dogan Keles
Abstract: Offshore grids, with multiple interacting transmission and generation units connecting to the shores of several countries, are expected to have an important role in the cost-effective energy transition. Such massive new infrastructure expanding into a new physical space will require new offshore energy market designs. Decisions on these designs today will influence the overall value potential of offshore grids in the future. This paper investigates different possible market configurations and their impacts on operational costs and required congestion management, as well as prices and emissions. We use advanced integrated energy system optimisation, applied to a study case on the North Sea region towards 2050. Our analysis confirms the well-known concept of nodal pricing as the most preferable market configuration. Nodal pricing minimises costs (0.2-1.6 b€/year lower) and CO2 emissions (0.6-5.6 Mton/year lower) with respect to alternative market designs investigated. The performance of the different market designs is highly influenced by the overall architecture of the offshore grid, and the rest of the energy system. E.g., flexibility options help reducing the spread between the designs. But the results are robust: nodal pricing in offshore grids emerges as the preferable market configuration for a cost-effective energy transition to carbon neutrality.
{"title":"Offshore Market Design in Integrated Energy systems: A Case Study on the North Sea Region towards 2050","authors":"Juan Gea-Bermúdez, Lena Kitzing, and Dogan Keles","doi":"10.5547/01956574.45.4.jgea","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.4.jgea","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: Offshore grids, with multiple interacting transmission and generation units connecting to the shores of several countries, are expected to have an important role in the cost-effective energy transition. Such massive new infrastructure expanding into a new physical space will require new offshore energy market designs. Decisions on these designs today will influence the overall value potential of offshore grids in the future. This paper investigates different possible market configurations and their impacts on operational costs and required congestion management, as well as prices and emissions. We use advanced integrated energy system optimisation, applied to a study case on the North Sea region towards 2050. Our analysis confirms the well-known concept of nodal pricing as the most preferable market configuration. Nodal pricing minimises costs (0.2-1.6 b€/year lower) and CO2 emissions (0.6-5.6 Mton/year lower) with respect to alternative market designs investigated. The performance of the different market designs is highly influenced by the overall architecture of the offshore grid, and the rest of the energy system. E.g., flexibility options help reducing the spread between the designs. But the results are robust: nodal pricing in offshore grids emerges as the preferable market configuration for a cost-effective energy transition to carbon neutrality.","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142260254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-13DOI: 10.1177/01956574241235113
A. Adenikinju
{"title":"Book Review: Petroleum Resource Management in Africa, Lessons from Ten Years of Oil and Gas Production in Ghana","authors":"A. Adenikinju","doi":"10.1177/01956574241235113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01956574241235113","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140245954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.5547/01956574.45.1.sris
S. Risanger, J. Mays
ABSTRACT Financial instruments that help provide revenue certainty are fundamental for project finance in liberalized electricity markets. Improved management of locational risk caused by network congestion is becoming increasingly important with a growing share of production from geographically remote renewable resources. Nodal markets have financial transmission rights (FTRs) to enable participants to manage locational risk, but there is no evidence that FTRs have been used to support project finance. Through a stochastic equilibrium model in which market participants invest in production assets and trade risk, we show that long-term FTRs promote surplus-maximizing generation investments and reduce the cost of capital. Investors pair them with energy price hedges and thus protect themselves against both types of risk. Our results suggest that altering the definition and allocation of FTRs to match the needs of project finance, e.g., by enabling new generators to procure a long-term right at the time of interconnection, could help ensure a complete risk market and encourage efficient investments.
{"title":"Congestion Risk, Transmission Rights, and Investment Equilibria in Electricity Markets","authors":"S. Risanger, J. Mays","doi":"10.5547/01956574.45.1.sris","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.1.sris","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Financial instruments that help provide revenue certainty are fundamental for project finance in liberalized electricity markets. Improved management of locational risk caused by network congestion is becoming increasingly important with a growing share of production from geographically remote renewable resources. Nodal markets have financial transmission rights (FTRs) to enable participants to manage locational risk, but there is no evidence that FTRs have been used to support project finance. Through a stochastic equilibrium model in which market participants invest in production assets and trade risk, we show that long-term FTRs promote surplus-maximizing generation investments and reduce the cost of capital. Investors pair them with energy price hedges and thus protect themselves against both types of risk. Our results suggest that altering the definition and allocation of FTRs to match the needs of project finance, e.g., by enabling new generators to procure a long-term right at the time of interconnection, could help ensure a complete risk market and encourage efficient investments.","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139126369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.5547/01956574.45.1.cgra
C. Graf, Thomas Kuppelwieser, D. Wozabal
ABSTRACT Continuous trading is currently becoming the standard for intraday electricity markets. In this paper, we propose frequent auctions as a viable alternative. We argue that batching orders in auctions potentially leads to lower liquidity cost, more reliable, less noisy price signals, and allows for better alignment of market outcomes with the technical realities of the transmission grid. In an empirical study, we compare the German continuous intraday market with counterfactual outcomes from frequent auctions. We find that traded volumes tend to be higher for continuous trading; however, the auction market benefits from lower liquidity costs and less noisy price signals. Furthermore, we critically discuss the suitability of continuous trading in the presence of network constraints and technical restrictions of conventional units. Taken together these findings suggest that in sparsely traded intraday markets, pooling orders in frequent auctions may be beneficial.
{"title":"Frequent Auctions for Intraday Electricity Markets","authors":"C. Graf, Thomas Kuppelwieser, D. Wozabal","doi":"10.5547/01956574.45.1.cgra","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.1.cgra","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Continuous trading is currently becoming the standard for intraday electricity markets. In this paper, we propose frequent auctions as a viable alternative. We argue that batching orders in auctions potentially leads to lower liquidity cost, more reliable, less noisy price signals, and allows for better alignment of market outcomes with the technical realities of the transmission grid. In an empirical study, we compare the German continuous intraday market with counterfactual outcomes from frequent auctions. We find that traded volumes tend to be higher for continuous trading; however, the auction market benefits from lower liquidity costs and less noisy price signals. Furthermore, we critically discuss the suitability of continuous trading in the presence of network constraints and technical restrictions of conventional units. Taken together these findings suggest that in sparsely traded intraday markets, pooling orders in frequent auctions may be beneficial.","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139126475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-15DOI: 10.1177/01956574202445011
A. Adenikinju, Jennifer Considine
{"title":"BOOK REVIEWS: Petroleum Resource Management in Africa, Lessons from Ten Years of Oil and Gas Production in Ghana, Edited by Theophilus Acheampong and Thomas Kojo Stephens; OPEC and the World’s Energy Future: Its Legacy and Promise, by Mohammed A. Alsahlawi","authors":"A. Adenikinju, Jennifer Considine","doi":"10.1177/01956574202445011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01956574202445011","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139274216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.1.smos
Saeed Moshiri, Gry Ostenstad, and Wessel N. Vermeulen
Abstract: This study investigates the effects of an oil boom on manufacturing plants performance. First, we derive several predictions using a model of heterogeneous firms. Second, we test these predictions on a plant level dataset using the Canadian Annual Survey of Manufacturers for 2000–2010. We exploit the time variation of the booming natural resource sector revenue in an oil-producing area in combination with the location of manufacturing plants to create an exogenous treatment variable. The outcome variables include plant level wages, employment, sales, and exports. We find that initial plant level productivity provides an important differentiation in average plants effects. Plants that are more productive become more likely to export in response to the oil boom, while less productive plants become less likely to export. Exporting firms become more likely to increase wages relative to non-exporting firms, but less likely to increase employment. While there is a great variety in the effect by sector, we do not observe that industry linkages with the resource industry drive plant performance.
{"title":"Manufacturing in a Natural Resource Based Economy: Evidence from Canadian Plants","authors":"Saeed Moshiri, Gry Ostenstad, and Wessel N. Vermeulen","doi":"10.5547/01956574.44.1.smos","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.44.1.smos","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: This study investigates the effects of an oil boom on manufacturing plants performance. First, we derive several predictions using a model of heterogeneous firms. Second, we test these predictions on a plant level dataset using the Canadian Annual Survey of Manufacturers for 2000–2010. We exploit the time variation of the booming natural resource sector revenue in an oil-producing area in combination with the location of manufacturing plants to create an exogenous treatment variable. The outcome variables include plant level wages, employment, sales, and exports. We find that initial plant level productivity provides an important differentiation in average plants effects. Plants that are more productive become more likely to export in response to the oil boom, while less productive plants become less likely to export. Exporting firms become more likely to increase wages relative to non-exporting firms, but less likely to increase employment. While there is a great variety in the effect by sector, we do not observe that industry linkages with the resource industry drive plant performance.","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138544458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-29DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.3.moli
Matthew E. Oliver, G. Upton
We test for economic convergence in GDP per capita and consumption per capita within two distinct sets of countries: those with significant (and plausibly exogenous) fossil fuel (FF) endowments and those without such endowments. Among countries with FF endowments, we find evidence of both absolute and conditional convergence across both macroeconomic dimensions, as indicated by standard P- and o-convergence tests. By contrast, we do not find robust evidence of convergence among countries without FF endowments. This pattern—convergence among FF-endowed and non-convergence among non-endowed countries—is robust to changes in the sample period, controlling for potential resource curse effects, and is largely consistent across growth components. We discuss the implications for economic development and comment on its implications for global decarbonization policies.
我们检验了两组不同国家在人均国内生产总值和人均消费方面的经济趋同性：一组是拥有重要（且看似外生）化石燃料禀赋的国家，另一组是不拥有化石燃料禀赋的国家。在拥有化石燃料禀赋的国家中，我们发现了宏观经济两个维度的绝对趋同和条件趋同的证据，标准的 P 趋同和 o 趋同检验也表明了这一点。与此相反，我们在不具备外资禀赋的国家中没有发现有力的趋同证据。这种模式--禀赋森林资源的国家之间趋同，而非禀赋森林资源的国家之间不趋同--在控制潜在的资源诅咒效应的情况下，对样本期的变化是稳健的，并且在不同的增长要素之间基本一致。我们讨论了这对经济发展的影响，并评论了其对全球去碳化政策的意义。
{"title":"Are Energy Endowed Countries Responsible for Conditional Convergence?","authors":"Matthew E. Oliver, G. Upton","doi":"10.5547/01956574.43.3.moli","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.43.3.moli","url":null,"abstract":"We test for economic convergence in GDP per capita and consumption per capita within two distinct sets of countries: those with significant (and plausibly exogenous) fossil fuel (FF) endowments and those without such endowments. Among countries with FF endowments, we find evidence of both absolute and conditional convergence across both macroeconomic dimensions, as indicated by standard P- and o-convergence tests. By contrast, we do not find robust evidence of convergence among countries without FF endowments. This pattern—convergence among FF-endowed and non-convergence among non-endowed countries—is robust to changes in the sample period, controlling for potential resource curse effects, and is largely consistent across growth components. We discuss the implications for economic development and comment on its implications for global decarbonization policies.","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141209361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-06DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.5.afer
Adrian Fernández-Pérez, Alexandre Garel, Ivan Indriawan
This paper examines the usefulness of crowdsourced relative to professional forecasts for natural gas storage changes. We find that crowdsourced forecasts are less accurate than professional forecasts on average. We investigate possible reasons for this inferior performance and find evidence of a greater divergence of opinions and a lower incorporation of publicly available information among crowd analysts. We further show that crowdsourced consensus forecast does not influence the market’s expectation of gas storage changes beyond what is already contained in professional consensus forecast, suggesting that crowdsourced forecasts provide little new information. Overall, our results indicate that the incremental usefulness of crowdsourced forecasts for gas market stakeholders is very limited.
{"title":"Natural Gas Storage Forecasts: Is the Crowd Wiser?","authors":"Adrian Fernández-Pérez, Alexandre Garel, Ivan Indriawan","doi":"10.5547/01956574.41.5.afer","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.41.5.afer","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the usefulness of crowdsourced relative to professional forecasts for natural gas storage changes. We find that crowdsourced forecasts are less accurate than professional forecasts on average. We investigate possible reasons for this inferior performance and find evidence of a greater divergence of opinions and a lower incorporation of publicly available information among crowd analysts. We further show that crowdsourced consensus forecast does not influence the market’s expectation of gas storage changes beyond what is already contained in professional consensus forecast, suggesting that crowdsourced forecasts provide little new information. Overall, our results indicate that the incremental usefulness of crowdsourced forecasts for gas market stakeholders is very limited.","PeriodicalId":501567,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141224311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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