Pub Date : 2024-03-12DOI: 10.52131/joe.2024.0601.0198
Muhammad Zafar Iqbal, Bashir Ahmad
This paper seeks to link the concept of SEZs with social developments in developing countries like Pakistan. In the larger context of human developments, social and general wellbeing of the people is closely linked with the infrastructural enhancement, overall employment of human resource and economic growth in a country. Creation of SEZs is one of the mechanisms to enhance human hands’ engagement. SEZs create those environments which are growth centric in the most comprehensive manner. In the recent history of human developments, it has worked very well in China which raised living standards of the people in record times. The concept of SEZs is based on business facilitation at one place with minimum cost; yet attaining optimum proficiency. The paper is based on secondary data from the official circles of Pakistan and China as well as the literature review. The study follows a qualitative analysis of secondary data as available in publications and official websites. Since Pakistan was already part of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the idea of establishing CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) prompted to develop SEZs in synchronicity for boosting the economic growth. The study also allows comparative views of SEZs especially in developing countries to draw relevance to those envisaged in Pakistan. In synch with the developments centered around CPEC; in Pakistan, the SEZs have started coming on grounds in a phased process. The study concludes with outcomes like creating similar conditions as those of Chinese to have compatible and comparable success standards in Pakistan.
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Pub Date : 2024-03-10DOI: 10.52131/joe.2024.0601.0197
Hanzala Zulfiqar, Rizwan Ahmad, Umar Shahzad
This study explores the application of a hybrid approach, combining the Impulse Indicator Saturation (IIS) method with an ARIMA(x) model, to forecast wheat yield. The IIS method is employed to find potential impulse responses, which are then integrated into the ARIMA(x) framework. The IIS method captures the potential joint effects of the weather, climate and other inputs on the data generating process of the wheat yield time series. The performance of the hybrid ARIMA(x) model is compared with that of the standalone ARIMA model using various error metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Additionally, model selection criteria such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC), and Hannan-Quinn Criterion (HQ) are used to identify the optimal model for forecasting. The training data of wheat yield from 1948-2018 was used to fit both the ARIMA and ARIMA(x) models, while the remaining observations until 2023 are used for model validation. The results of the study reveal that the hybrid ARIMA(x) model exhibits superior forecasting ability, demonstrating lower error metrics compared to the standalone ARIMA model. Notably, the ex-ante forecasts for the 2023-24 period predict a wheat production of 29.916 million tons using the ARIMA(x) model and 29.656 million tons using the ARIMA (2,1,2) model. These findings underscore the efficacy of the hybrid approach in enhancing production forecasting accuracy, thereby serving as a valuable basis for early warning systems to address potential demand and supply gaps in wheat production.
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Pub Date : 2024-03-07DOI: 10.52131/joe.2024.0601.0196
Sadia Mahwish, Furrukh Bashir, Faisal Azeem Abbassi, Shahbaz Ali Khan
Gender equality is rooted in the capacity of individuals to independently make decisions regarding their social, political, and economic well-being. Unfortunately, women encounter diminished opportunities for engagement in these spheres, particularly evident in developing economies. UN-SDGs has placed gender equality as a 5th goal in the framework. This study aims to elucidate pathways for women empowerment by investigating the moderating influence of governance within the realm of financial inclusion. Panel data analysis has been employed for 30 developing economies for the time of 2004 to 2020.Data sources are World Development Indicators (WDI) and the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). The labor force participation rate (LFPRF) was employed as a proxy for women empowerment and is treated as dependent variable. Governance and Financial Inclusion were examined as independent variables, with domestic credit to the private sector (DC) representing financial inclusion and governance stability (GS) acting as a proxy for governance. Gross capital formation (GCF) and gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) were included as control variables. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), FE, and RE regression models were considered appropriate after applying pre diagnostic tests. The study also employed Arellano Bond model for robustness. The Results indicated that 1 % increase in DC increased LFPRF by 1.05%,16%, and 0.16% in OLS, FE, RE respectively. Similarly, 1 % increase in GS increases LFPRF by 2.49% in OLS model and by 0.13% in both FE and RE model. The study also discussed the strategies to promote women empowerment through planned interventions in financial inclusion and governance.
性别平等植根于个人就其社会、政治和经济福祉独立做出决定的能力。遗憾的是，妇女参与这些领域的机会越来越少，这在发展中经济体尤为明显。联合国可持续发展目标将性别平等作为框架中的第五个目标。本研究旨在通过调查治理对普惠金融领域的调节作用，阐明赋予妇女权力的途径。数据来源于世界发展指标（WDI）和国际国家风险指南（ICRG）。劳动力参与率（LFPRF）被用作妇女赋权的替代变量，并被视为因变量。治理和金融包容性作为自变量进行研究，私营部门国内信贷（DC）代表金融包容性，治理稳定性（GS）则代表治理。资本形成总额（GCF）和人均国内生产总值（GDPPC）被列为控制变量。在应用预诊断测试后，普通最小二乘法（OLS）、FE 和 RE 回归模型被认为是合适的。为了稳健起见，研究还采用了 Arellano Bond 模型。结果表明，在 OLS、FE 和 RE 模型中，DC 增加 1%，LFPRF 分别增加 1.05%、16% 和 0.16%。同样，在 OLS 模型中，GS 增加 1%，LFPRF 增加 2.49%；在 FE 和 RE 模型中，GS 增加 1%，LFPRF 增加 0.13%。该研究还讨论了通过有计划地干预金融普惠和治理来促进妇女赋权的战略。
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