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Considerations regarding the evolution of extreme temperatures in the Banat Plain in the last six decades 关于巴纳特平原近60年极端温度演变的思考
4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/idojaras.2023.3.5
Mihai Dudaş, Petru Urdea
During cold winter nights we often hear the question "where is the global warming, should it not be warmer?". Low temperatures that can still be recorded in the Banat Plain during winter or media reports of cold waves affecting various regions worldwide seem to the common man to be in total contradiction with the concerns of the scientific community about global warming. With this article we are trying to follow the evolution of some meteorological parameters that can affect the population in one way or another, namely number of tropical days, number of winter days, number of tropical nights, number of frosty nights, absolute maximum and minimum temperatures. Thus, the data obtained from the three national meteorological services (Romanian, Hungarian, and Serbian) operating on the territory of the Banat Plain were grouped in a common database and analyzed both in Excel and with the help of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, obtaining a series of conclusions on the evolution of the abovementioned parameters, as well as on the way how the increase in the risk of high temperatures is compensated (or not) by the decrease in the risk of low temperatures.
在寒冷的冬夜,我们经常听到这样的问题:“全球变暖到哪里去了,是不是应该更暖一些?”在普通人看来,巴纳特平原冬季仍然可以记录到的低温,或者媒体报道的影响世界各地的寒潮,似乎与科学界对全球变暖的担忧完全矛盾。在这篇文章中,我们试图跟踪一些可能以某种方式影响人口的气象参数的演变,即热带日数、冬季日数、热带夜数、霜冻夜数、绝对最高和最低温度。因此,将在巴纳特平原地区开展业务的三个国家气象部门(罗马尼亚、匈牙利和塞尔维亚)获得的数据分组到一个共同的数据库中,并在Excel中进行分析,并借助非参数Mann-Kendall检验,得出一系列关于上述参数演变的结论。以及高温风险的增加是如何通过低温风险的降低来补偿的。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of large scale climate drivers on precipitation in Sindh, Pakistan using machine learning techniques 利用机器学习技术研究大规模气候驱动因素对巴基斯坦信德省降水的影响
4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/idojaras.2023.3.4
Sapna Tajbar, Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust, Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl
Sindh province of Pakistan has a long history of severe droughts. Several large scale climate drivers (LSCD) are known for their effect on precipitation worldwide but studies in the Sindh region are missing; wide variety of LSCDs and lagged associative information. This study aimed to identify the significant LSCDs in Sindh province of Pakistan and improve the forecast skill of monthly precipitation by employing the principal component analysis (PCA), artificial neural network (ANN), Bayesian regularization neural network (BRNN), and multiple regression analysis (MRA), while considering the 12 months lagged LSCDs such as Nino-1+2, Nino-3, Nino-3.4, Nino-4, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) at 30 and 50hPa (QBOI and QBOII), sea surface temperature (SST), 2m air temperature (T2M), 500 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential heights (H500 and H850), surface and 500 hPa zonal velocity (SU and U500), latent and sensible heat fluxes over land (LHFOL and SHFOL), and surface specific humidity (SSH). Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA-2), NOAA, Freie University Berlin, and Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) datasets were used. Results manifested that significant LSCDs with 99% confidence level were SU, U500, T2M, SST, SHFOL, LHFOL, SSH, and H850. During test period, compared with MR models of 0.39 to 0.64 and principal components of 0.31 to 0.57, the ANN and BRNN models had better predictive skills with correlation coefficients of 0.57 to 0.83 and 0.52 to 0.76, respectively. It can be concluded that the ANN and BRNN models enable us to predict monthly precipitation in Sindh region with lagged LSCDs.
巴基斯坦信德省长期遭受严重干旱。几个大尺度气候驱动因子(LSCD)因其对全球降水的影响而闻名,但在信德地区的研究却缺失;各种各样的lscd和滞后关联信息。本文利用主成分分析(PCA)、人工神经网络(ANN)、贝叶斯正则化神经网络(BRNN)和多元回归分析(MRA)等方法,结合12个月滞后的Nino-1+2、Nino-3、Nino-3.4、Nino-4、30和50hPa准两年振荡(QBO) (QBOI和QBOII)、海温(SST)、2m气温(T2M)、500 hPa和850 hPa位势高度(H500和H850)、地面和500 hPa纬向速度(SU和U500)、陆地潜热通量和感热通量(LHFOL和SHFOL)以及地面比湿度(SSH)。使用了全球陆地数据同化系统(GLDAS)、热带降雨测量任务(TRMM)、ModernEra回顾性分析研究与应用(MERRA-2)、NOAA、柏林自由大学和哈德利中心海冰和海面温度(HadISST)数据集。结果显示,具有99%置信水平的显著LSCDs为SU、U500、T2M、SST、SHFOL、LHFOL、SSH和H850。在测试期间,与MR模型0.39 ~ 0.64和主成分0.31 ~ 0.57相比,ANN和BRNN模型具有更好的预测能力,相关系数分别为0.57 ~ 0.83和0.52 ~ 0.76。结果表明,ANN和BRNN模型能较好地预测LSCDs滞后的信德省月降水。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the sunshine duration using multiple linear regression in Kocaeli, Turkey 利用多元线性回归估计土耳其Kocaeli地区日照时数
4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/idojaras.2023.3.2
Mine Tulin Zateroglu
This study aims to estimate and evaluate the characteristic behavior of sunshine duration for long-term records. Sunshine duration and other climate variables such as cloudiness, precipitation, relative humidity, etc., have been measured in meteorological stations for a long time all over the world. But in some cases, such as missing data or unavailable station, the estimation of sunshine duration play a crucial role. Statistical models can be used to predict the sunshine duration over climate variables. To evaluate the behavior of sunshine duration, several climate variables were analyzed for different time scales. The data used in this study were collected from a ground-based meteorological station. In the first, all data were arranged according to different time scales as monthly, seasonal, and annual average values. Prediction models were constructed for each time scale. This study used multiple linear regression (MLR) to build the models and the Pearson correlation analysis to determine the relations between the climate elements. The created models for estimating sunshine duration were validated as well. According to the results, MLR can be utilized and recommended for the prediction of the sunshine duration over climate variables.
本研究的目的是估计和评价长期记录的日照时数特征行为。日照时数和其他气候变量,如云量、降水量、相对湿度等,在世界各地的气象站都有长期的测量。但在某些情况下,如缺少数据或没有站点,日照时数的估计起着至关重要的作用。统计模型可用于预测气候变量的日照时数。为了评价日照时数的变化规律,对不同时间尺度的气候变量进行了分析。本研究使用的数据是从一个地面气象站收集的。首先,将所有数据按月平均值、季节平均值和年平均值等不同的时间尺度进行排列。为每个时间尺度构建预测模型。本研究采用多元线性回归(MLR)建立模型,并采用Pearson相关分析确定气候要素之间的关系。所建立的估算日照时数的模型也得到了验证。结果表明,MLR可用于气候变量的日照时数预测。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation and analysis of the Iranian autumn rainfall thickness pattern 伊朗秋季降水厚度格局的调查与分析
4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/idojaras.2023.3.1
Hossein Jahantigh
The purpose of this study was to investigate and analyze the trend of autumn precipitation thickness pattern in Iran. For this purpose, two environmental and atmospheric databases have been used. Environmental data is prepared and networked in two stages, in the first stage with the help of 1434 stations and in the second stage with the help of 1061 stations. Atmospheric data includes geopotential height data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP / NCAR). The spatial resolution of this data is 2.5 × 2.5 degrees. The thickness of the atmosphere, which is usually between 500 and 1000 hectopascals, is shown. This thickness is considered as the thickness of the whole atmosphere. The results of the autumn precipitation trend showed that although autumn precipitation on monthly and annual scales has experienced an increasing trend in most regions, in less than 5% of Iran, the upward trend has been significant. The most intense upward trend is observed in the form of spots in the central and northern parts of the Zagros Mountain, while the greatest decreasing trend has been observed in the form of cores along the Caspian coastal cities. The results of the autumn precipitation thickness pattern showed that the autumn precipitation thickness pattern is affected by deflection and instability due to high latitude cold and humid weather and low latitude hot and humid weather occurred in North Africa, in such a way that the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea provide the required moisture in high latitudes and the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf in low latitudes.
本研究的目的是调查和分析伊朗秋季降水厚度格局的变化趋势。为此目的,使用了两个环境和大气数据库。环境数据的准备和联网分两个阶段,第一阶段有1434个站点的帮助,第二阶段有1061个站点的帮助。大气数据包括从国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP / NCAR)获得的位势高度数据。该数据的空间分辨率为2.5 × 2.5度。大气的厚度通常在500至1000百帕斯卡之间,如图所示。这个厚度被认为是整个大气的厚度。秋季降水趋势分析结果表明,虽然大部分地区的秋季降水在月和年尺度上都有增加的趋势,但伊朗不到5%的地区的秋季降水上升趋势显著。Zagros山中部和北部的斑点形式的上升趋势最强烈,而里海沿岸城市的岩心形式的下降趋势最大。秋季降水厚度型的结果表明,秋季降水厚度型受高纬度寒湿天气和北非低纬度湿热天气引起的偏转和不稳定的影响,使得黑海和地中海在高纬度地区提供所需的水分,而红海和波斯湾在低纬度地区提供所需的水分。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of wind comfort with computational fluid dynamics simulations for pedestrian sidewalks around buildings 用计算流体力学模拟评价建筑物周围行人人行道的风舒适性
4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/idojaras.2023.3.7
Alper Aydemir, Fikriye Ezgi Karahüseyin, Yaşar Can Yılmaz
Wind power could be one of the most clean and powerful renewable resources for electrical energy production, but on the other hand, uncontrolled wind flow especially in urban places could cause undesired situations as damage to buildings, decrease in pedestrian comfort, environmental damage, or even life loss. Construction of high-rise buildings, widely spread structures within cities, and environmental changes forces, engineers to find quick, reliable, and also economically viable solutions during design stages, but wind comfort of sidewalks generally not considered enough even if they are located in crowded areas. The web-based computer aided engineering (CAE) program named Simscale which runs on the basis of sophisticated graphical interface was used as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software to determine wind speeds under influence of buildings in the Nuh Naci Yazgan University campus. Also, field measurements carried out in campus area for a short term period were compared with long term hourly wind speed data obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) station located in Kayseri to identify most optimal wind speed data for the research area. Results of analysis showed that wind speed increased in the mostly used paths of campus, which means that the layout of buildings negatively affected the wind comfort. CFD analysis softwares could be used to determine the possible consquences of wind with less economic investment in a short time, and they could be used in accordance with comfort criterias as well as safety regulations.
风能可能是电力生产中最清洁、最强大的可再生资源之一,但另一方面,不受控制的风流,尤其是在城市地区,可能会造成建筑物损坏、行人舒适度降低、环境破坏,甚至生命损失等不良情况。高层建筑的建设,城市内结构的广泛分布,以及环境的变化,迫使工程师在设计阶段找到快速、可靠、经济可行的解决方案,但人行道的风舒适性通常没有得到足够的考虑,即使它们位于拥挤的地区。利用基于网络的计算机辅助工程(CAE)程序Simscale作为计算流体动力学(CFD)软件,在Nuh Naci Yazgan大学校园内确定受建筑物影响的风速。此外,将校园内进行的短期现场测量与位于开塞利的土耳其国家气象局(MGM)站获得的长期每小时风速数据进行比较,以确定研究区域的最优风速数据。分析结果表明,校园内最常使用的路径风速增大,说明建筑布局对风舒适性有负面影响。CFD分析软件可以在短时间内确定经济投资较少的风可能造成的后果,并根据舒适性标准和安全法规进行使用。
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引用次数: 0
Contribution to the study of climate change in Serbia using continentality, oceanity, and aridity indices 利用大陆性、海洋性和干旱指数对塞尔维亚气候变化研究的贡献
4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/idojaras.2023.3.6
Dragan Burić, Jovan Mihajlović, Vladan Ducić, Milan Milenković, Goran Anđelković
The aim of the study is to present some specific climatic conditions on the territory of the Republic of Serbia based on the analysis of four climate indices, which can help in understanding contemporary climate changes. Temperature and precipitation data from 31 meteorological stations for the period 1951–2010 were used. The relative homogeneity of the data series was done using the MASH v3.02 method. The indices used are: Johansson Continentality Index, Kerner Oceanity Index, De Martonne Aridity Index, and Pinna Combinative Index. Geospatial analysis of the distribution of the values of the four mentioned indices was done using the QGIS package 2.8.1. The results of the research show that the continentality effect is present in most of Serbia, while oceanity is observed locally, mainly in the western and southwestern parts of the country. The further analysis showed that there is no dry and semi–dry Mediterranean climate in Serbia. Considering that it is dry in the warmest part of the year (July–September), when the need for water is increased, which is clearly shown by the Walter climate diagram, as well as the fact that an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation during the vegetation period were observed in the second 30–year period (1981–2010), it can be concluded that in Serbia there is a tendency towards arid climate. The results presented in this paper can help decision makers to plan certain climate change adaptation measures.
这项研究的目的是根据对四种气候指数的分析,介绍塞尔维亚共和国领土上的一些具体气候条件,这有助于了解当代气候变化。使用1951-2010年31个气象站的气温和降水资料。数据序列的相对均匀性采用MASH v3.02方法。使用的指数有:Johansson大陆指数、Kerner海洋性指数、De marton干旱指数和Pinna综合指数。利用QGIS软件包2.8.1对上述4个指标的数值分布进行地理空间分析。研究结果表明,大陆性效应存在于塞尔维亚的大部分地区,而海洋性在局部地区,主要是在该国的西部和西南部地区。进一步的分析表明,塞尔维亚不存在干燥和半干燥的地中海气候。考虑到一年中最温暖的时候(7 - 9月)是干燥的,此时对水的需求增加,沃尔特气候图清楚地表明了这一点,以及第二个30年期间(1981-2010)在植被期观察到温度升高和降水减少,可以得出结论,塞尔维亚有干旱气候的趋势。本文的研究结果可以帮助决策者规划一定的气候变化适应措施。
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引用次数: 0
Research trend the in meteorology and atmospheric sciences category based on essential science indicators during 2011–2021 2011-2021年基于基本科学指标的气象与大气科学类研究趋势
4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/idojaras.2023.3.3
Bao-Zhong Yuan, Jie Sun
This study analyzed 1,636 top papers in the subject category of meteorology and atmospheric sciences about eleven years from 2011 to 2021, which included 1,636 highly cited papers and 24 hot papers in the field belonged to 20 Web of Science categories and 14 research areas. All top papers, written in English, were from 13,878 authors, 2,913 organizations, and 124 countries or territories, and published in 72 journals in the field. The top five journals are the Nature Climate Change (15.9% of the studied paper), Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (12.1%), Journal of Climate (7.0%), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (6.7%), and Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (4.6%), each published more than 76 papers. Top five countries were the USA, England, PR China, Germany, and France. Furthermore, top five organizations of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Chinese Academy of Sciences, and University Colorado were popular based on contribution of articles more than 134 papers each. All keywords were separated into eight clusters for different research topic. Visualizations offer exploratory information on the current state in a scientific field or discipline, as well as can indicate possible developments in the future.
本研究分析了2011 - 2021年近11年间气象与大气科学学科类别的1636篇顶级论文,其中高被引论文1636篇,热点论文24篇,属于Web of Science的20个类别和14个研究领域。所有的顶级论文都是用英语写的,来自13878位作者,2913个组织,124个国家或地区,发表在该领域的72种期刊上。排名前五的期刊分别是《自然气候变化》(15.9%)、《大气化学与物理》(12.1%)、《气候杂志》(7.0%)、《美国气象学会公报》(6.7%)和《地球物理研究大气杂志》(4.6%),发表论文均超过76篇。排名前五的国家分别是美国、英国、中国、德国和法国。此外,美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)、美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)、美国国家航空航天局(NASA)、中国科学院、美国科罗拉多大学等前5大机构的论文发表量均超过134篇。针对不同的研究课题,将关键词分成8个聚类。可视化提供了科学领域或学科当前状态的探索性信息,也可以指示未来可能的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of ozone deposition models over a subalpine forest in Niwot Ridge, Colorado 科罗拉多州尼沃特岭亚高山森林臭氧沉积模型的评价
IF 0.9 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/idojaras.2018.2.2
D. Szinyei, G. Gelybó, A. Guenther, A. Turnipseed, E. Tóth, P. Builtjes
In this study, we evaluated three conceptually similar ozone gas deposition models. These dry deposition models are frequently used with chemical transport models for calculations over large spatial domains. However, large scale applications of surface-atmosphere exchange of reactive gases require modeling results as accurate as possible to avoid nonlinear accumulation of errors in the spatially representative results. In this paper, model evaluation and comparison against measured data over a coniferous forest at Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux site (Colorado, USA) is carried out. At this site, no previous model calibration took place for any of the models, therefore, we can test and compare their performances under similar conditions as they would perform in a spatial application. Our results show systematic model errors in all the three cases, model performance varies with time of the day, and the errors show a pronounced seasonal pattern as well. The introduction of soil moisture content stress in the model improved model performance regarding the magnitude of fluxes, but the correlation between measured and modeled ozone deposition values remains low. Our results suggest that ozone dry deposition model results should be interpreted carefully in large scale applications, where the accuracy can vary with land cover sometimes are biased. © 2018, Hungarian Meteorological Service. All rights reserved.
在这项研究中,我们评估了三个概念相似的臭氧气体沉积模型。这些干沉积模型经常与化学输运模型一起用于大空间域的计算。然而,反应气体的地表-大气交换的大规模应用要求建模结果尽可能准确,以避免在空间代表性结果中误差的非线性累积。本文对美国科罗拉多州Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux站点的针叶林进行了模型评价,并与实测数据进行了比较。在这个站点,以前没有对任何模型进行过模型校准,因此,我们可以在类似的条件下测试和比较它们在空间应用中的性能。我们的研究结果表明,在所有三种情况下,模型都存在系统误差,模型性能随一天中的时间而变化,并且误差也表现出明显的季节性模式。在模型中引入土壤含水量应力改善了模型在通量大小方面的性能,但臭氧沉积测量值与模拟值之间的相关性仍然很低。我们的研究结果表明,在大尺度应用中,臭氧干沉积模型的结果应该仔细解释,其中精度可能随土地覆盖而变化,有时是有偏差的。©2018,匈牙利气象局。版权所有。
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引用次数: 2
Impact of precipitation and temperature on the grain and protein yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties 降水和温度对小麦籽粒和蛋白质产量的影响
IF 0.9 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.28974/IDOJARAS.2018.1.3
M. Jolánkai, M. K. Kassai, Á. Tarnawa, B. Pósa, M. Birkás
⎯Impacts of agronomic applications were studied in a field experiment to determine water availability, grain yield, and protein formation interrelations. Three winter wheat varieties and six nitrogen application levels were applied in two consecutive crop years representing different precipitation and temperature patterns to evaluate yield, yield components, and quality manifestation. The research results suggest that precipitation patterns in relation with the wheat development phenophases had profound influence on the grain yield and protein formation of wheat crop. Varietal differences were determined regarding yield and protein values in relation with plant nutrition and crop year impacts. There were no, or minor differences only between varieties, however plant nutrition treatments induced significant differences in both crop years. Key-words: crop year weather, nitrogen supply, wheat, grain yield, protein yield
农艺应用的影响在田间试验中进行了研究,以确定水的有效性,粮食产量和蛋白质形成的相互关系。以3个冬小麦品种和6个施氮水平为研究对象,在不同降水和温度模式的连续2个作物年,对产量、产量构成和品质表现进行评价。研究结果表明,与小麦发育物候期相关的降水模式对小麦作物的产量和蛋白质形成有着深远的影响。测定了与植物营养和作物年份影响有关的产量和蛋白质值的品种差异。品种间无差异或差异较小,但植物营养处理在两个作物年际间均有显著差异。关键词:作物年天气,氮供应,小麦,籽粒产量,蛋白质产量
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引用次数: 14
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Idojaras
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