Pub Date : 2024-06-13DOI: 10.1177/01445987241262459
Tao Ma, Xiucheng Tan, Haijun Yang, Qiang Xu, Hao Tang, Qing Ma
Based on the research results of stratigraphic sedimentary facies, plane maps of sedimentary facies for four periods of the Neogene terrestrial foreland basin in Southwest Tarim were compiled. Research results conclude that the Neogene Miocene developed alluvial fan facies, fan delta facies, and lacustrine facies successively from the piedmont belt to the Maigaiti Slope. During the sedimentation of the Miocene Anju’an Formation, the lake range expanded to its maximum. According to the new division scheme for five-order sequences in prototype sedimentary basin, the stratigraphic sequence of a terrestrial foreland basin was divided and compared, and a sequence development and evolution model was established. Research results show that: (1) the Neogene–Quaternary is a typical type I sedimentary sequence with huge thickness; (2) the Neogene is a period of tectonic compression and flexural subsidence sedimentation in the foreland basin; with the maximum lake flooding surface at the top of the Miocene Anju’an Formation as the boundary, the lower part is a second-order super-sequence of the lacustrine transgression system tracts (TST), the upper part is a second-order super-sequence of the highstand system tracts (HST), and the Quaternary is a second-order super-sequence of the lowstand system tracts (LST) in forced lacustrine regression caused by the Late Himalayan tectonic movement; (3) the classic sequence stratigraphy made an error in establishing the theoretical model of marine type I sequences, as it placed the LST in the wrong position. The corrected type I sequences are in the order of TST, HST, and LST. (4) Finally, two examples were applied to demonstrate the development position of the LST, indicating that whether it is a marine or terrestrial prototype sedimentary basin, the LST was developed during the late stage of tectonic compression and uplift in a basin, and is the sedimentary sequence at the top of the prototype sedimentary basin.
在地层沉积面研究成果的基础上，编制了塔里木西南部新近纪陆相前陆盆地四个时期的沉积面平面图。研究结果表明，新近纪中新世从山麓带到麦盖提斜坡依次发育了冲积扇面、扇三角洲面和湖泊面。在中新世安居庵地层沉积过程中，湖泊范围扩大到最大。根据原型沉积盆地五阶序列新划分方案，对陆相前陆盆地地层序列进行了划分和对比，建立了序列发育演化模型。研究结果表明(1）新元古代-第四纪是典型的Ⅰ型沉积序列，厚度巨大；（2）新元古代是前陆盆地构造压缩和屈曲沉降沉积的时期；以中新世安居庵地层顶部最大湖泊洪积面为界，下部为二阶超序列的湖泊变位系地层（TST），上部为二阶超序列的高位系地层（HST），第四纪为喜马拉雅晚期构造运动引起的湖泊被迫回归的二阶超序列的低位系地层（LST）；(3) 经典层序地层学在建立海相 I 型层序理论模型时犯了错，因为它将 LST 置于错误的位置。更正后的 I 型序列顺序为 TST、HST 和 LST。(4）最后，应用两个实例论证了LST的发育位置，说明无论是海相还是陆相原型沉积盆地，LST都是在盆地构造压缩和隆起的后期发育的，是原型沉积盆地顶部的沉积序列。
{"title":"Sedimentary evolution and sequence stratigraphic model of Neogene–Quaternary terrestrial foreland basin in Southwest Tarim","authors":"Tao Ma, Xiucheng Tan, Haijun Yang, Qiang Xu, Hao Tang, Qing Ma","doi":"10.1177/01445987241262459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241262459","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the research results of stratigraphic sedimentary facies, plane maps of sedimentary facies for four periods of the Neogene terrestrial foreland basin in Southwest Tarim were compiled. Research results conclude that the Neogene Miocene developed alluvial fan facies, fan delta facies, and lacustrine facies successively from the piedmont belt to the Maigaiti Slope. During the sedimentation of the Miocene Anju’an Formation, the lake range expanded to its maximum. According to the new division scheme for five-order sequences in prototype sedimentary basin, the stratigraphic sequence of a terrestrial foreland basin was divided and compared, and a sequence development and evolution model was established. Research results show that: (1) the Neogene–Quaternary is a typical type I sedimentary sequence with huge thickness; (2) the Neogene is a period of tectonic compression and flexural subsidence sedimentation in the foreland basin; with the maximum lake flooding surface at the top of the Miocene Anju’an Formation as the boundary, the lower part is a second-order super-sequence of the lacustrine transgression system tracts (TST), the upper part is a second-order super-sequence of the highstand system tracts (HST), and the Quaternary is a second-order super-sequence of the lowstand system tracts (LST) in forced lacustrine regression caused by the Late Himalayan tectonic movement; (3) the classic sequence stratigraphy made an error in establishing the theoretical model of marine type I sequences, as it placed the LST in the wrong position. The corrected type I sequences are in the order of TST, HST, and LST. (4) Finally, two examples were applied to demonstrate the development position of the LST, indicating that whether it is a marine or terrestrial prototype sedimentary basin, the LST was developed during the late stage of tectonic compression and uplift in a basin, and is the sedimentary sequence at the top of the prototype sedimentary basin.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141346538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-13DOI: 10.1177/01445987241253292
Vivek Kumar, R. N. Rao, Ajendra Singh, V. Shekher, Kaushik Paul, P. Sinha, Thamer AH Alghamdi, A. Abdelaziz
In the restructured power system, where uncertainties are common, managing congestion becomes a crucial aspect of power system operation and control. Congestion management aims to alleviate the power system transmission line congestion while meeting the system constraints at minimal cost. This research introduces a generation rescheduling method for congestion management in the electricity market, leveraging an innovative nutcracker optimizer algorithm. The nutcracker optimizer algorithm, inspired by nutcrackers’ food accumulation mechanisms, is a recently developed nature-inspired algorithm. The efficacy of this proposed approach is assessed across modified IEEE 30-bus, and IEEE 118-bus test systems, considering the system parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed congestion management with the nutcracker optimizer algorithm is analyzed by comparing its results with those generated by other recent optimization techniques. Results demonstrated that the nutcracker optimizer algorithm surpasses other comparative methods, requiring fewer fitness function evaluations, avoiding local optima, and displaying encouraging convergence traits. Implementing this approach can assist the system operators in swiftly addressing contingencies, ensuring secure and reliable power system operation within a deregulated environment.
{"title":"A novel nature-inspired nutcracker optimizer algorithm for congestion control in power system transmission lines","authors":"Vivek Kumar, R. N. Rao, Ajendra Singh, V. Shekher, Kaushik Paul, P. Sinha, Thamer AH Alghamdi, A. Abdelaziz","doi":"10.1177/01445987241253292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241253292","url":null,"abstract":"In the restructured power system, where uncertainties are common, managing congestion becomes a crucial aspect of power system operation and control. Congestion management aims to alleviate the power system transmission line congestion while meeting the system constraints at minimal cost. This research introduces a generation rescheduling method for congestion management in the electricity market, leveraging an innovative nutcracker optimizer algorithm. The nutcracker optimizer algorithm, inspired by nutcrackers’ food accumulation mechanisms, is a recently developed nature-inspired algorithm. The efficacy of this proposed approach is assessed across modified IEEE 30-bus, and IEEE 118-bus test systems, considering the system parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed congestion management with the nutcracker optimizer algorithm is analyzed by comparing its results with those generated by other recent optimization techniques. Results demonstrated that the nutcracker optimizer algorithm surpasses other comparative methods, requiring fewer fitness function evaluations, avoiding local optima, and displaying encouraging convergence traits. Implementing this approach can assist the system operators in swiftly addressing contingencies, ensuring secure and reliable power system operation within a deregulated environment.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141345796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-11DOI: 10.1177/01445987241260949
S. Joga, P. Sinha, Vasupalli Manoj, Srinivasa Rao Sura, Vasudeva Naidu Pudi, Nagwa F. Ibrahim, Abdulaziz Alkuhayli, Mahmoud M. Hussein, U. Khaled, Daniel Eutyche Mbadjoun Wapet, A. Beroual, Mohamed Metwally Mahmoud
This study presents a novel approach that employs a mixture of the tunable-Q wavelet transform (TQWT) and enhanced AdaBoost to address the issue of high impedance fault (HIF) recognition in power distribution networks. Traditional overcurrent protection relays frequently have lower fault current levels than normal current, making it exceedingly difficult to detect this HIF problem with the necessity to use a quick and effective approach to find HIF problems. Since the TQWT performs better with signals that exhibit oscillatory behavior, it has been utilized to extract special features for the training of the improved AdaBoost model. The procedure is accelerated by calculating the Kourtosis (K) value for each level and selecting the ideal level of decomposition to minimize computing work. Faulted zones are categorized using an enhanced AdaBoost approach. Under normal, noisy, and unbalanced conditions, the recommended approach is applied to an imbalanced 123-bus test system and an IEEE 33-bus test system. The efficiency of the recommended method is also being assessed for imbalanced distribution networks incorporating dispersed generation into real-time platforms. This procedure is quick compared to previous methods since it uses an upgraded AdaBoost classifier and optimal decomposition level.
{"title":"Applications of tunable-Q factor wavelet transform and AdaBoost classier for identification of high impedance faults: Towards the reliability of electrical distribution systems","authors":"S. Joga, P. Sinha, Vasupalli Manoj, Srinivasa Rao Sura, Vasudeva Naidu Pudi, Nagwa F. Ibrahim, Abdulaziz Alkuhayli, Mahmoud M. Hussein, U. Khaled, Daniel Eutyche Mbadjoun Wapet, A. Beroual, Mohamed Metwally Mahmoud","doi":"10.1177/01445987241260949","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241260949","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents a novel approach that employs a mixture of the tunable-Q wavelet transform (TQWT) and enhanced AdaBoost to address the issue of high impedance fault (HIF) recognition in power distribution networks. Traditional overcurrent protection relays frequently have lower fault current levels than normal current, making it exceedingly difficult to detect this HIF problem with the necessity to use a quick and effective approach to find HIF problems. Since the TQWT performs better with signals that exhibit oscillatory behavior, it has been utilized to extract special features for the training of the improved AdaBoost model. The procedure is accelerated by calculating the Kourtosis (K) value for each level and selecting the ideal level of decomposition to minimize computing work. Faulted zones are categorized using an enhanced AdaBoost approach. Under normal, noisy, and unbalanced conditions, the recommended approach is applied to an imbalanced 123-bus test system and an IEEE 33-bus test system. The efficiency of the recommended method is also being assessed for imbalanced distribution networks incorporating dispersed generation into real-time platforms. This procedure is quick compared to previous methods since it uses an upgraded AdaBoost classifier and optimal decomposition level.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141358539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this article, the behaviors of both flow and generated output of photovoltaic pump, the characteristics of both water pumping efficiency and output frequency, and the feature of charge capacity in accumulators have been tested through experiments, based on the integrated application system for water pumping, energy storage and illumination by photovoltaic pump, and in combination with composition and operation performance of photovoltaic water pumping system. According to the experimental results and under a constant delivery head, the photovoltaic pump and accumulator energy storage system with a total measured power of 1.8375 kWp in a photovoltaic array produces a daily water output of 13.1 m3 and an average water output of 1.93 m3/h; the maximum water pumping efficiency of the system is 12.7% and the average water pumping efficiency is 11.1%; meanwhile, the energy storage capacity of accumulators by charging in three time periods throughout a day is 1.01 kWh, which accounts for about 9.72% of the photovoltaic array's all-day generated energy, namely 10.3 kWh. Those conclusions have certain practical implications for the optimal configuration of photovoltaic water pumping system.
{"title":"Research on experiment for operation performance of water pumping and energy storage by photovoltaic pump","authors":"Yanjin Wang, Linchao Gao, Yi Xie, Fuping Shen, Qingying Hao, Bing Jia","doi":"10.1177/01445987241257749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241257749","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, the behaviors of both flow and generated output of photovoltaic pump, the characteristics of both water pumping efficiency and output frequency, and the feature of charge capacity in accumulators have been tested through experiments, based on the integrated application system for water pumping, energy storage and illumination by photovoltaic pump, and in combination with composition and operation performance of photovoltaic water pumping system. According to the experimental results and under a constant delivery head, the photovoltaic pump and accumulator energy storage system with a total measured power of 1.8375 kWp in a photovoltaic array produces a daily water output of 13.1 m3 and an average water output of 1.93 m3/h; the maximum water pumping efficiency of the system is 12.7% and the average water pumping efficiency is 11.1%; meanwhile, the energy storage capacity of accumulators by charging in three time periods throughout a day is 1.01 kWh, which accounts for about 9.72% of the photovoltaic array's all-day generated energy, namely 10.3 kWh. Those conclusions have certain practical implications for the optimal configuration of photovoltaic water pumping system.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141359128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-24DOI: 10.1177/01445987241248201
H. Alsamamra, Saeed Salah, J. Shoqeir
Palestine lacks sufficient conventional energy sources that meet the daily needs of the Palestinian people, and consequently, it heavily relies on neighboring countries for its supply with energy compensations. Wind energy is recognized as an abundant, effective, and eco-friendly power source, but it poses several challenges in harnessing due to the inherent variability of wind characteristics. The main objective of this research study is to delve into the wind energy landscape in Palestine, and to offer some insights into the feasibility of wind speed forecasting for implementing sustainable energy solutions, with a special focus on ARIMA; a widely used statistical method for time series forecasting. It specifically explores the potential of using ARIMA models to forecast wind speed using a data captured from a meteorological station located in east Jerusalem, Palestine for a duration of 2 years—January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022. To find the optimal values of ARIMA parameters (p, d, q) for the considered study site, a set of experiments were conducted and the model's forecasting accuracy was evaluated using three metrics: RMSE, MAE, and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results have shown that ARIMA (21,2) emerges as the most accurate structure with an input period that demonstrates superior estimation with minimal RMSE (1.74), minimal MAE (1.58) and higher R2 (0.76) values. This means that the optimal estimation is achieved when an autoregressive process is based on the previous two lagged observations and the moving average process incorporates the dependency between the observation and the residual error from a second-order moving average applied to the lagged observations. These findings give valuable insights into the feasibility and precision of wind speed forecasting models for sustainable energy solutions, and emphasize the potential for harnessing wind energy in the region as clarified by ARIMA forecasting accuracy.
{"title":"Performance analysis of ARIMA Model for wind speed forecasting in Jerusalem, Palestine","authors":"H. Alsamamra, Saeed Salah, J. Shoqeir","doi":"10.1177/01445987241248201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241248201","url":null,"abstract":"Palestine lacks sufficient conventional energy sources that meet the daily needs of the Palestinian people, and consequently, it heavily relies on neighboring countries for its supply with energy compensations. Wind energy is recognized as an abundant, effective, and eco-friendly power source, but it poses several challenges in harnessing due to the inherent variability of wind characteristics. The main objective of this research study is to delve into the wind energy landscape in Palestine, and to offer some insights into the feasibility of wind speed forecasting for implementing sustainable energy solutions, with a special focus on ARIMA; a widely used statistical method for time series forecasting. It specifically explores the potential of using ARIMA models to forecast wind speed using a data captured from a meteorological station located in east Jerusalem, Palestine for a duration of 2 years—January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022. To find the optimal values of ARIMA parameters (p, d, q) for the considered study site, a set of experiments were conducted and the model's forecasting accuracy was evaluated using three metrics: RMSE, MAE, and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results have shown that ARIMA (21,2) emerges as the most accurate structure with an input period that demonstrates superior estimation with minimal RMSE (1.74), minimal MAE (1.58) and higher R2 (0.76) values. This means that the optimal estimation is achieved when an autoregressive process is based on the previous two lagged observations and the moving average process incorporates the dependency between the observation and the residual error from a second-order moving average applied to the lagged observations. These findings give valuable insights into the feasibility and precision of wind speed forecasting models for sustainable energy solutions, and emphasize the potential for harnessing wind energy in the region as clarified by ARIMA forecasting accuracy.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140664656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-24DOI: 10.1177/01445987241242620
{"title":"CORRIGENDUM to “Optimization of Fast-steam-assisted gravity drainage for the energy-efficient operations at a heterogeneous oil-sands reservoir”","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/01445987241242620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241242620","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140662207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-23DOI: 10.1177/01445987241247863
Yongchuan Chen, Da Huo, Aidi Tang, Wenjia Gu
This study investigates the impact of well-being on carbon efficiency in the entertainment market from the perspective of geographic psycholinguistics. To analyze this impact, we employ quantile regression based on the method of moments and spatial econometric models that incorporate economic policy uncertainty. The results highlight the substantial impact of well-being on energy conservation and carbon emission reduction. On one hand, our findings indicate that well-being significantly reduces carbon emissions and exhibits a spatial externality effect. Furthermore, well-being indirectly contributes to carbon reduction by alleviating the adverse consequences of economic policy uncertainty. The rationale behind this relies on psycholinguistic expressions of well-being, which play a crucial role in enhancing the quality of life and serving as psychological foundations for individuals to adopt environmentally conscious actions and low-carbon lifestyles. This exploration is of great significance for understanding the synergistic growth of well-being and the development of the green economy.
{"title":"Well-being and entertainment carbon efficiency: A study of spatial externality in geographic psycholinguistics in response to economic policy uncertainty","authors":"Yongchuan Chen, Da Huo, Aidi Tang, Wenjia Gu","doi":"10.1177/01445987241247863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241247863","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the impact of well-being on carbon efficiency in the entertainment market from the perspective of geographic psycholinguistics. To analyze this impact, we employ quantile regression based on the method of moments and spatial econometric models that incorporate economic policy uncertainty. The results highlight the substantial impact of well-being on energy conservation and carbon emission reduction. On one hand, our findings indicate that well-being significantly reduces carbon emissions and exhibits a spatial externality effect. Furthermore, well-being indirectly contributes to carbon reduction by alleviating the adverse consequences of economic policy uncertainty. The rationale behind this relies on psycholinguistic expressions of well-being, which play a crucial role in enhancing the quality of life and serving as psychological foundations for individuals to adopt environmentally conscious actions and low-carbon lifestyles. This exploration is of great significance for understanding the synergistic growth of well-being and the development of the green economy.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140667476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-22DOI: 10.1177/01445987241237152
A. Mikhaylov, Tsangyao Chang, Aigul Mukhanova, Akmaral Bukharbayeva, Z. Karpyn
Probability Matrix, it is necessary to obtain energy options pricing. The paper found the true probabilities of transition from the current state of the market to other states. The energy options pricing including effects of Political tensions is proposed. The methods are based on true probabilities of transition to the next state of the energy market. It can be used to predict the movement of the underlying asset of energy options (oil and gas derivatives pricing). For example, one strategy might be to compare the energy sources at the beginning 2022 (before 24.02.2024) with the current state of the market. The results show that this matrix can be implemented in energy options pricing, which represents the true probabilities of transition from the current state of the market to modern state. Practical implementation is an investment strategy in oil and gas futures that should include the median of a given distribution with the current state of the market after beginning of Russia-Ukraine conflict. The absence of arbitrage opportunities is a fundamental principle underlying modern financial pricing theory. This concept is peculiar to the statement of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. The results prove idea that at a fixed point in time is the information about some market quotations of American Call options can be determined. The results have a set of quotes that are available in both directions: both for strikes and for periods to maturity.
{"title":"Applying Theorem of Ross to Transition Probability Matrix in Energy Options Pricing after Political Tensions and Russia-Ukraine Conflict","authors":"A. Mikhaylov, Tsangyao Chang, Aigul Mukhanova, Akmaral Bukharbayeva, Z. Karpyn","doi":"10.1177/01445987241237152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241237152","url":null,"abstract":"Probability Matrix, it is necessary to obtain energy options pricing. The paper found the true probabilities of transition from the current state of the market to other states. The energy options pricing including effects of Political tensions is proposed. The methods are based on true probabilities of transition to the next state of the energy market. It can be used to predict the movement of the underlying asset of energy options (oil and gas derivatives pricing). For example, one strategy might be to compare the energy sources at the beginning 2022 (before 24.02.2024) with the current state of the market. The results show that this matrix can be implemented in energy options pricing, which represents the true probabilities of transition from the current state of the market to modern state. Practical implementation is an investment strategy in oil and gas futures that should include the median of a given distribution with the current state of the market after beginning of Russia-Ukraine conflict. The absence of arbitrage opportunities is a fundamental principle underlying modern financial pricing theory. This concept is peculiar to the statement of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. The results prove idea that at a fixed point in time is the information about some market quotations of American Call options can be determined. The results have a set of quotes that are available in both directions: both for strikes and for periods to maturity.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140674996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-08DOI: 10.1177/01445987241228322
Chen Yan, Shi Zhun
The energy industry, acutely sensitive to geopolitical shifts due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experiences sustained disturbances in global energy markets, reshaping global energy supply dynamics and significantly influencing global trade patterns. Utilizing static and dynamic GARCH-Copula models, this study elucidates the dependency between energy markets and related assets. The Copula function, when compared with the multivariate GARCH model, demonstrates distinct advantages, notably in delineating joint asset distributions, capturing market dependence's nonlinear traits, and highlighting robust tail correlation structures. Beyond the average inter-market dependence, its tail correlation offers a vital perspective on market risk. This research delves into the temporal and structural variations in interdependence between energy markets and related assets. It probes potential structural breakpoints in dynamic interdependence and pinpoints their occurrences. By focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this study offers a holistic view of the changing interplay between the energy market and other asset categories, providing pivotal insights for investor portfolio optimization, regulatory oversight, and risk mitigation. Moreover, employing wavelet analysis, this study examines the frequency domain traits of the interdependency between energy markets and associated assets. As frequency wanes, market price fluctuations become less pronounced. The continuous wavelet power spectrum indicates that price variations are predominantly mid to high frequency. Cross-wavelet transform results suggest that correlations between energy markets and related assets are more influenced by short-term perturbations than enduring shifts.
{"title":"A study on time-varying dependence between energy markets and linked assets based on the Russia-Ukraine conflict","authors":"Chen Yan, Shi Zhun","doi":"10.1177/01445987241228322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241228322","url":null,"abstract":"The energy industry, acutely sensitive to geopolitical shifts due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experiences sustained disturbances in global energy markets, reshaping global energy supply dynamics and significantly influencing global trade patterns. Utilizing static and dynamic GARCH-Copula models, this study elucidates the dependency between energy markets and related assets. The Copula function, when compared with the multivariate GARCH model, demonstrates distinct advantages, notably in delineating joint asset distributions, capturing market dependence's nonlinear traits, and highlighting robust tail correlation structures. Beyond the average inter-market dependence, its tail correlation offers a vital perspective on market risk. This research delves into the temporal and structural variations in interdependence between energy markets and related assets. It probes potential structural breakpoints in dynamic interdependence and pinpoints their occurrences. By focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this study offers a holistic view of the changing interplay between the energy market and other asset categories, providing pivotal insights for investor portfolio optimization, regulatory oversight, and risk mitigation. Moreover, employing wavelet analysis, this study examines the frequency domain traits of the interdependency between energy markets and associated assets. As frequency wanes, market price fluctuations become less pronounced. The continuous wavelet power spectrum indicates that price variations are predominantly mid to high frequency. Cross-wavelet transform results suggest that correlations between energy markets and related assets are more influenced by short-term perturbations than enduring shifts.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139791979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-08DOI: 10.1177/01445987241228322
Chen Yan, Shi Zhun
The energy industry, acutely sensitive to geopolitical shifts due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experiences sustained disturbances in global energy markets, reshaping global energy supply dynamics and significantly influencing global trade patterns. Utilizing static and dynamic GARCH-Copula models, this study elucidates the dependency between energy markets and related assets. The Copula function, when compared with the multivariate GARCH model, demonstrates distinct advantages, notably in delineating joint asset distributions, capturing market dependence's nonlinear traits, and highlighting robust tail correlation structures. Beyond the average inter-market dependence, its tail correlation offers a vital perspective on market risk. This research delves into the temporal and structural variations in interdependence between energy markets and related assets. It probes potential structural breakpoints in dynamic interdependence and pinpoints their occurrences. By focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this study offers a holistic view of the changing interplay between the energy market and other asset categories, providing pivotal insights for investor portfolio optimization, regulatory oversight, and risk mitigation. Moreover, employing wavelet analysis, this study examines the frequency domain traits of the interdependency between energy markets and associated assets. As frequency wanes, market price fluctuations become less pronounced. The continuous wavelet power spectrum indicates that price variations are predominantly mid to high frequency. Cross-wavelet transform results suggest that correlations between energy markets and related assets are more influenced by short-term perturbations than enduring shifts.
{"title":"A study on time-varying dependence between energy markets and linked assets based on the Russia-Ukraine conflict","authors":"Chen Yan, Shi Zhun","doi":"10.1177/01445987241228322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01445987241228322","url":null,"abstract":"The energy industry, acutely sensitive to geopolitical shifts due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experiences sustained disturbances in global energy markets, reshaping global energy supply dynamics and significantly influencing global trade patterns. Utilizing static and dynamic GARCH-Copula models, this study elucidates the dependency between energy markets and related assets. The Copula function, when compared with the multivariate GARCH model, demonstrates distinct advantages, notably in delineating joint asset distributions, capturing market dependence's nonlinear traits, and highlighting robust tail correlation structures. Beyond the average inter-market dependence, its tail correlation offers a vital perspective on market risk. This research delves into the temporal and structural variations in interdependence between energy markets and related assets. It probes potential structural breakpoints in dynamic interdependence and pinpoints their occurrences. By focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this study offers a holistic view of the changing interplay between the energy market and other asset categories, providing pivotal insights for investor portfolio optimization, regulatory oversight, and risk mitigation. Moreover, employing wavelet analysis, this study examines the frequency domain traits of the interdependency between energy markets and associated assets. As frequency wanes, market price fluctuations become less pronounced. The continuous wavelet power spectrum indicates that price variations are predominantly mid to high frequency. Cross-wavelet transform results suggest that correlations between energy markets and related assets are more influenced by short-term perturbations than enduring shifts.","PeriodicalId":507696,"journal":{"name":"Energy Exploration & Exploitation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139852007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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