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Структура размежеваний и искажение электорального пространства 分区结构和选举空间的扭曲
Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2024-112-1-45-76
Yu.G. Korgunyuk
The article presents the results of testing the hypothesis, according to which ballot stuffing in favor of the “party in power”, while causing minor distortions to the structure of electoral cleavages, does not fundamentally change it. The author tested the hypothesis on the data from the 2016 and 2021 elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation held via proportional system rules. He used the following method: in the regions where ballot stuffing was allegedly used in favor of the United Russia party, a certain number of votes were subtracted from the United Russia electoral results in accordance with the difference between the maximum and effective ranges of the electoral cleavage related to the confrontation between of the United Russia and the rest of elections’ participants. The author employed two models to run calculations: in the first model the threshold for deduction was a difference of 50% between the maximum and effective range, in the second model the difference was 5%. For 2016 elections, the first model took away more than 6.1 million votes from the United Russia, the second model subtracted more than 12.5 million votes; for 2021 elections — more than 5 and more than 10 million votes, respectively. Nevertheless, there was no radical change in the structure of electoral cleavages, let alone its elimination. The study showed that although ballot stuffing in favor of the “party in power” artificially overemphasizes the role of the authoritarian-democratic confrontation, sidelining other confrontations, the structure of electoral cleavages per se is largely preserved. Mathematical methods, especially factor analysis, can be efficiently used to detect this structure.
文章介绍了对这一假设的检验结果,根据这一假设,为 "执政党 "填充选票虽然会对选举分裂结构造成轻微扭曲,但不会从根本上改变选举分裂结构。作者用 2016 年和 2021 年按比例制规则举行的俄罗斯联邦国家杜马选举的数据检验了这一假设。他使用了以下方法:在据称使用了有利于 "统一俄罗斯 "党的填充选票的地区,根据与 "统一俄罗斯 "党和其他选举参与者之间的对抗有关的选举裂痕的最大范围和有效范围之间的差异,从 "统一俄罗斯 "党的选举结果中减去一定数量的选票。作者使用了两个模型进行计算:在第一个模型中,扣除的临界值是最大范围和有效范围之间的差值为 50%,在第二个模型中,差值为 5%。在 2016 年选举中,第一个模型从 "统一俄罗斯 "手中夺走了 610 多万张选票,第二个模型夺走了 1250 多万张选票;在 2021 年选举中,分别夺走了 500 多万张和 1000 多万张选票。尽管如此,选举分裂结构并未发生根本变化,更不用说消除了。研究表明,虽然有利于 "执政党 "的选票填充人为地过分强调了专制与民主对立的作用,使其他对立靠边站,但选举裂痕结构本身在很大程度上得以保留。数学方法,特别是因子分析,可以有效地用于检测这种结构。
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引用次数: 0
Factors of Social Trust in Europe and Russia 欧洲和俄罗斯的社会信任因素
Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2024-112-1-136-163
R.F. Turovsky, E.V. Bragina
The article analyzes the factors of generalized social trust in the modern states. The authors rely on the “up bottom” approach, which as sumes that trust in political institutions has a significant impact on social trust, while also accounting for socio-economic factors. The authors examine the case of Russia separately due to the specifics of political trust in personalist presidential regimes, Russia’s longer exposure to communism, as well as the modern increase in the level of political trust, which radically exceeds the level of social trust. Based on the comparative study of sociological trends and factors of social trust in the country, they document the gradual development of a situation where social trust is inversely correlated with political trust. They tend to explain this phenomenon by the exaggerated importance of the personal and public security agenda, which negatively affects social trust, while simultaneously increases the demand for political trust. Socio-economic factors in Russia play a limited role, but can resume their influence during periods of reduced social tensions. According to the authors’ conclusion, given the current political system, the potential for increase in social trust in the Russian Federation is limited.
文章分析了现代国家普遍社会信任的因素。作者采用 "自下而上 "的方法,总结出政治体制信任对社会信任的重要影响,同时也考虑了社会经济因素。由于个人主义总统制下政治信任的特殊性、俄罗斯经历共产主义的时间较长,以及现代政治信任水平的提高(从根本上超过了社会信任水平),作者对俄罗斯的情况进行了单独研究。在对社会学趋势和国家社会信任因素进行比较研究的基础上,他们记录了社会信任与政治信任成反比的逐步发展情况。他们倾向于通过夸大个人和公共安全议程的重要性来解释这一现象,因为这对社会信任产生了负面影响,同时又增加了对政治信任的需求。在俄罗斯,社会经济因素发挥的作用有限,但在社会紧张局势缓和的时期,这些因素的影响会恢复。根据作者的结论,鉴于当前的政治体制,俄罗斯联邦提高社会信任度的潜力有限。
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引用次数: 0
Mixed Parallel Electoral System — Optimal Choice under Authoritarianism? (Cross-National Comparative Study) 混合平行选举制--威权主义下的最佳选择?(跨国比较研究)
Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2024-112-1-98-113
V. А. Usova
Over the past 30 years, the mixed parallel electoral system has become one of the popular types of electoral systems used in elections to national legislatures. Curiously, it received the highest popularity in authoritarian regimes. The article attempts to identify internal political factors that contribute to the introduction of mixed parallel electoral systems under the conditions of electoral authoritarianism. To perform this task, the author uses the binary logistic regression method. In this study, the author makes an assumption that when implementing electoral reform under authoritarianism, the ruling elite is largely guided by the desire to maintain and strengthen its power. The study shows that the mixed parallel electoral system is most likely to be introduced during the period of regime transformation. At the initial stage of the consolidation of an authoritarian regime that allows multi-party competition, the ruling elite faces the challenge of institutionalizing electoral uncertainty. The effectiveness and durability of the political regime depends on how the risks associated with elections are neutralized. The mechanical combination of majoritarian and proportional representation principles opens up an opportunity to utilize the advantages of each of the electoral formulas conditional on the political situation, allowing the existing authorities to gain control over the sweeping majority of seats in parliament even when electoral competition is increasing and the support for the dominant party is falling. According to the author’s conclusion, the use of the mixed parallel system plays an important role in the consolidation of an authoritarian regime. Due to the mechanisms inherent in this system, the ruling elite can efficiently manipulate elections, ensuring the survival and stability of the authoritarian order.
在过去的 30 年中,混合平行选举制已成为国家立法机构选举中最常用的选举制之一。奇怪的是,它在专制政权中最受欢迎。本文试图找出在选举威权主义条件下有助于引入混合平行选举制的内部政治因素。为了完成这一任务,作者使用了二元逻辑回归法。在这项研究中,作者提出了一个假设,即在威权主义下实施选举改革时,统治精英主要以维护和加强其权力的愿望为导向。研究表明,混合平行选举制度最有可能在政权转型时期推行。在允许多党竞争的威权体制巩固初期,统治精英面临着将选举不确定性制度化的挑战。政治体制的有效性和持久性取决于如何化解与选举相关的风险。多数代表制原则和比例代表制原则的机械结合为根据政治局势利用每种选举形式的优势提供了机会,使现有当局即使在选举竞争加剧、占主导地位的政党支持率下降的情况下也能控制议会中的绝大多数席位。根据作者的结论,混合平行制度的使用在巩固专制政权方面发挥了重要作用。由于这种制度的内在机制,统治精英可以有效地操纵选举,确保专制秩序的生存和稳定。
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引用次数: 0
No Disrespect to the “Reactionary” 不尊重 "反动派"
Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2024-112-1-6-28
L.G. Fishman
The article addresses the question of why, despite the seemingly long-standing accumulation of economic and technical conditions sufficient for building, if not communism, then socialism, the left-wing forces are unable to take advantage of this, and yield the initiative to the right-wing, conservative, and even reactionary forces. The author explains this situation by the rationale that the mindset of the left is still dominated by a flat liberal progressivism characterized by cliché ideas about the progressive and the reactionary, but it lacks tools to adequately assess the reasons for the “reactionary” sympathies of the broad masses and to admit that these masses have “grounds for concern” at the very least. As a theoretical basis, the article uses the concept of human prehistory of the classics of Marxism. The author demonstrates that the underlying dichotomy of the alienated and authentic, human and inhuman does not coincide with the dichotomy of “reactionary” and “progressive”. The Modern Age is examined as both an epoch of reaction (in the literal sense of the word, net of ideological connotations) and that of progress. In order to resolve these issues, the author introduces the concept of retropractice, which is supposed to help adequately describe these seemingly “reactionary” and “conservative” sides of Modernity. Retropractices, in contrast to “reaction”, possess an emancipatory and alienation-reducing potential. The flaw of the left is that they fail to comprehensively conceptualize the meaning of retropractices because they view them only as “reaction” and “conservatism” in the usual sense. However, socialism, if realized, will largely turn out to be precisely a set of retropractices.
文章探讨了这样一个问题:尽管经济和技术条件看似早已积累到足以建设(即使不是共产主义,也是社会主义)社会主义的程度,但左翼力量却无法利用这一优势,而将主动权拱手让给右翼、保守甚至反动势力。作者解释这种情况的理由是,左翼的思维方式仍然被以进步和反动的陈词滥调为特征的平面自由进步主义所主导,但却缺乏工具来充分评估广大群众同情 "反动 "的原因,并承认这些群众至少有 "担忧的理由"。作为理论基础,文章使用了马克思主义经典著作中的人类史前史概念。作者证明,异化与真实、人与非人的基本二分法与 "反动 "与 "进步 "的二分法并不一致。现代既是反动的时代(字面意义上的反动,不含意识形态内涵),也是进步的时代。为了解决这些问题,作者提出了 "回溯实践"(retropractice)的概念,认为它有助于充分描述现代性看似 "反动 "和 "保守 "的两面。与 "反动 "相比,反传统具有解放和减少异化的潜力。左派的缺陷在于,他们未能全面地概念化反传统的意义,因为他们仅仅将其视为通常意义上的 "反动 "和 "保守"。然而,社会主义一旦实现,在很大程度上恰恰就是一套复古实践。
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引用次数: 0
Mobilization Momentum and Electoral Results of “Party in Power” "执政党 "的动员势头和选举结果
Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2024-112-1-77-97
A.V. Semenov, E.Yu. Minaeva
The article examines the connection between protests and elections in an authoritarian context. Using the concept of mobilization momentum, the authors attempt to find out whether intensive and massive collective actions on the eve of elections can affect electoral mobilization and support for the “party in power”, and if so, in what direction. Based on the modern literature on this topic, the authors identify two alternative models of the possible electoral effect of the mobilization momentum. According to the first model, by breaking through the information blockade and signaling to citizens about the widespread dissatisfaction with the authorities’ policies, intense mass protests contribute to an increase in voters’ turnout and a decrease in support for pro-government forces. According to the second model, such protests may easily increase the electoral performance of the “party in power,” since they often lead to the mobilization of an electorate that is loyal to the ruling circles. The authors test these hypotheses against the evidence from the 2011— 2016 parliamentary electoral cycle in Russia using methods of standard multiple linear regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control. The results are mixed. It appears that the mobilization momentum has a weak electoral effect or even a positive effect on the performance of the “party in power,” but its influence may depend on threshold values: in the most protesting cities, support for the United Russia turns out to be lower than it would be in the absence of the mobilization momentum. At the same time, the findings convincingly demonstrate that the evidence and data from the Russian context, combined with modern methods of analysis, opens up an excellent opportunity for research at the intersection of the spheres of political participation and electoral politics.
文章探讨了专制背景下抗议与选举之间的联系。作者利用动员势头的概念,试图找出选举前夕密集而大规模的集体行动是否会影响选举动员和对 "执政党 "的支持,如果会,会朝着哪个方向影响。根据有关这一主题的现代文献,作者为动员势头可能产生的选举效应确定了两个备选模型。根据第一种模式,通过突破信息封锁并向公民表明对当局政策的普遍不满,激烈的群众抗议活动有助于提高选民投票率并减少对亲政府势力的支持。根据第二种模式,这种抗议活动很容易提高 "执政党 "的选举成绩,因为它们往往会动员忠于执政党的选民。作者采用标准多元线性回归、差分法和合成控制法,根据 2011- 2016 年俄罗斯议会选举周期的证据检验了这些假设。结果喜忧参半。动员势头似乎对 "执政党 "的表现有微弱的选举影响,甚至是积极影响,但其影响可能取决于临界值:在抗议最激烈的城市,"统一俄罗斯 "的支持率低于没有动员势头时的支持率。同时,研究结果令人信服地表明,来自俄罗斯的证据和数据与现代分析方法相结合,为政治参与和选举政治领域的交叉研究提供了绝佳机会。
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引用次数: 0
Long-Term Effect of Online and Offline Repressions on Post-Electoral Protest Participants’ Number (Cross-National Empirical Study) 在线和离线镇压对选举后抗议参与者人数的长期影响(跨国实证研究)
Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2024-112-1-164-186
V.E. Belenkov
Although the relationship between state coercive measures and protests has long been studied in Political Science, there are a number of gaps in the modern research studies about the impact of repressions on street protest activity. A serious flaw in these studies is their focus on the influence of repressions on the existing protest campaigns, with little attention to their long-term implications. The impact of repressions on the scale of protest and number of protesters, as well as the role of the Internet as a factor mediating the impact of state sanctions on protests, is understudied. The article attempts to bridge these gaps. The author has first examined theoretical arguments in support of three possible forms of correlation between the severity of repressions and street protest activity — negative, positive, and parabolic (n-shaped), after which he tests relevant hypotheses on a sample of country cases that share the same trigger for protest — suspicions of electoral fraud. To test these hypotheses, the author utilized data on the maximum strength of repressions against civil society organizations, participants in protests and authors of anti-government messages on the Internet in the pre-electoral years, as well as data on protests in the first week following the elections. The study confirmed the influence of repressions on future protest activity. At the same time, the relationship between the severity of repressions and the number of protest participants in the long term has a quadratic n-shaped form: at low and high levels of repression, the number of protesters is minimal, at medium — it is maximal. As for the impact of the Internet, it was not detected on data on repression in the offline environment, but it was revealed on data on the strength of sanctions for political activity on the Web: if the share of Internet users in a country is low, repressions decrease the number of protest participants; if it is high, repressions of medium strength correspond to the maximum number of protesters.
尽管政治学界长期以来一直在研究国家强制措施与抗议活动之间的关系,但关于镇压对街头抗议活动的影响的现代研究却存在许多空白。这些研究的一个严重缺陷是只关注镇压对现有抗议活动的影响,而很少关注其长期影响。镇压对抗议活动规模和抗议者人数的影响,以及互联网作为国家制裁对抗议活动影响的中介因素所起的作用,都未得到充分研究。本文试图弥补这些不足。作者首先研究了支持镇压严重程度与街头抗议活动之间可能存在的三种相关形式--负相关、正相关和抛物线型(n 型)--的理论论据,然后对具有相同抗议触发因素--怀疑选举舞弊--的国家案例样本进行了相关假设检验。为了验证这些假设,作者利用了选举前几年针对民间社会组织、抗议活动参与者和互联网上反政府信息作者的最大镇压力度数据,以及选举后第一周的抗议活动数据。研究证实了镇压对未来抗议活动的影响。同时,镇压的严重程度与抗议活动参与者人数之间的长期关系呈二次 n 型:镇压程度低和高时,抗议者人数最少,镇压程度中等时,抗议者人数最多。至于互联网的影响,离线环境下的镇压数据并未发现这一影响,但网络上政治活动的制裁力度数据却揭示了这一点:如果一个国家的互联网用户比例较低,镇压就会减少抗议参与者的数量;如果比例较高,中等强度的镇压就会使抗议者的数量达到最大。
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引用次数: 0
Instability of Social Life as Spanish Distinctiveness Khenkin S.M. Spain: Modern Unstable Society. Moscow: Aspect Press, 2023 社会生活的不稳定性是西班牙的特色 Khenkin S.M. Spain:现代不稳定社会》。莫斯科:Aspect Press, 2023
Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2024-112-1-187-196
A.N. Kozhanovsky
The published article represents a review of the monograph by S.M.Khenkin Spain: Modern Unstable Society. The monograph examines Spain’s experience at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries, as a country that, due to historical circumstances, faces instability and unpredictability of development (so typical in the modern world) in an especially acute and concentrated manner. Khenkin identifies and describes, one by one, factors that characterize and explain the unstable state of the modern Spanish socio-political system, consistently integrating the current issues into the general context of the historical development of the Spanish society, its political and cultural traditions and comparing what is happening there with the situation in other European countries. Based on his research, he comes to the conclusion that several acute and persistent socio-political conflicts make high instability a distinctiveness of the country’s life. In the monograph the author provides careful and multilateral analysis of the transition from Francoism to consolidated democracy; various aspects of the ongoing transformations in the society; the specifics of the Spanish party-political system and its evolution; national-regional issue. He documents a radical change in the sentiments in the Spanish society with the appearance of a new generation, which clearly manifested in the reassessment of the transition, with harsh criticism replacing earlier approval, and in the conflict around “historical memory”. The author analyzes the relationship between the central government of the country and regional separatists and does not see any prospects for a prompt resolution of the conflict. According to his reasoned assessment, separation from Spain of any of its regions will inevitably cause irreparable damage to all parties to the conflict.
发表的文章是对 S.M.Khenkin Spain 专著的评论:现代不稳定社会》。这本专著研究了西班牙在 20 世纪末和 21 世纪初的经历,由于历史原因,西班牙面临着不稳定和不可预测的发展(在现代世界中非常典型),这种情况尤为突出和集中。肯金逐一指出并描述了现代西班牙社会政治制度不稳定的特点和原因,始终将当前的问题纳入西班牙社会历史发展、政治和文化传统的大背景中,并将西班牙的情况与其他欧洲国家的情况进行比较。在研究的基础上,他得出结论:几场尖锐而持久的社会政治冲突使得高度不稳定性成为西班牙生活的一个特点。在这本专著中,作者对从佛朗哥主义到巩固民主的过渡、社会持续转型的各个方面、西班牙政党政治制度的具体情况及其演变、国家-地区问题进行了细致而多角度的分析。他记录了随着新一代的出现,西班牙社会的情绪发生了剧烈变化,这明显体现在对过渡时期的重新评估上,严厉的批评取代了之前的赞同,也体现在围绕 "历史记忆 "的冲突上。作者分析了国家中央政府与地区分离主义者之间的关系,认为冲突不可能迅速得到解决。根据他的合理评估,任何一个地区脱离西班牙都将不可避免地给冲突各方造成无法弥补的损失。
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引用次数: 0
Equality of Luck: Evolvement of Egalitarian Theories of Justice in the Late 20th Century 运气平等:20 世纪晚期平等主义正义理论的演变
Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2023-111-4-51-66
R. Belkovich, S. V. Vinogradov
Since the publication of John Rawls’s Theory of Justice, the egalitarian tradition, which associates fair institutional structure with reaching equality in one aspect or another, has started to play a central role in academic discussions of the social justice problem. The article is devoted to the analysis of the evolution of egalitarianism of luck, which by the end of the 20th century has become the main direction in the framework of this tradition. The proponents of this direction in their argument depart from Rawls’s idea about the lottery of birth, according to which a game played by a fortune, being arbitrary from the moral point of view and affecting the distribution of resources in society, is unfair, and therefore should be compensated. Rawls’s approach to minimizing the role of luck in a fair distribution did not guarantee sufficient compensation for natural inequalities, assuming at the same time excessive compensation for “expensive tastes”. Trying to solve this problem, Ronald Dworkin distinguished between brute and option luck, using the model of the “veil of ignorance”, behind which the amount of fair compensation is determined. Further development of egalitarianism of luck at the turn of the 1980—1990s is associated with the names of Richard Arneson, Gerald Cohen, John Roemer and some other authors who made a number of amendments and changes to the concept of undeserved luck and proposed their own ways to neutralize its consequences for society. The arguments of proponents of luck egalitarianism at the end of the 20th century aimed at strengthening the role of an individual’s freedom of choice and implantation of the ethics of responsibility into the theory of social justice. At the same time, the interpretation of luck as a true “currency of equality” made the question of fair distribution conditional upon the consensus on the limits of human capacity for systematic cultivation of virtues and the scope of individual responsibility for one’s own destiny.
自约翰-罗尔斯(John Rawls)的《正义论》(Theory of Justice)出版以来,将公平的制度结构与实现某一方面的平等联系在一起的平等主义传统开始在学术界关于社会正义问题的讨论中发挥核心作用。本文专门分析了平均主义运气论的演变,到 20 世纪末,平均主义已成为这一传统框架内的主要方向。这个方向的支持者在论证中背离了罗尔斯关于出生抽签的观点,根据罗尔斯的观点,从道德的角度来看,运气的游戏是任意的,影响了社会资源的分配,是不公平的,因此应该得到补偿。罗尔斯将运气在公平分配中的作用最小化的方法并不能保证对自然不平等的充分补偿,同时假定了对 "昂贵的品味 "的过度补偿。罗纳德-德沃金(Ronald Dworkin)试图解决这个问题,他使用 "无知的面纱 "模型区分了野蛮的运气和选择的运气,而公平补偿的数额就是在 "无知的面纱 "背后决定的。运气平等主义在 1980-1990 年代之交的进一步发展与理查德-阿内森、杰拉尔德-科恩、约翰-罗默和其他一些作者的名字有关,他们对不应得运气的概念做了一些修正和改变,并提出了自己的方法来消除运气对社会的影响。20 世纪末,运气平等主义支持者的论点旨在加强个人选择自由的作用,并将责任伦理植入社会正义理论。同时,将运气解释为一种真正的 "平等货币",使公平分配问题成为就人类系统培养美德的能力限度和个人对自身命运的责任范围达成共识的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Traditional Russian Values: Institutional Analysis 俄罗斯的传统价值观:制度分析
Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2023-111-4-67-93
G. Borshchevskiy
The article presents the results of an institutional study of the official Russian narrative about traditional values, which is aimed at identifying the degree of their integration into the system of legal norms. Using methods of comparative legal, thesaurus and content analysis, as well as the analogy method, the author attempts to assess the optimality of the choice of traditional values in Russia from the point of view of constitutional norms and postulates of the world religions and determine to what extent these values are incorporated into the documents of political goal-setting. The author treats as traditional the values recorded in the “Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values” approved by the presidential decree in 2022, and compares them with the values of the Constitution, the basic moral imperatives of Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, and Judaism, as well as with the values outlined in the strategic documents and national development goals of the Russian Federation. The study shows that the officially declared traditional spiritual and moral values do not fully coincide with the constitutional ones and, at the same time, are more focused on secular ethics than on the principles of the world religions. Simultaneously, the author reveals their inconsistency with the top-level goal-setting documents and national projects. According to the author, in the current conditions, such a discrepancy, which weakens the effect of a legislator’s actions, may be preferable to the consistent and systematic introduction of values with their conventionality being questionable. Revealing socially significant norms is possible only after conducting a detailed and substantive study of public opinion, longitudinal trends, political and economic processes. Otherwise, normative entrenchment can cause further polarization of the society rather than its consolidation.
文章介绍了对俄罗斯官方有关传统价值观的叙述进行制度研究的结果,旨在确定其融入法律规范体系的程度。作者运用比较法、词库和内容分析法以及类比法,试图从宪法规范和世界宗教教义的角度评估俄罗斯传统价值观选择的最优性,并确定这些价值观在多大程度上被纳入政治目标制定文件。作者将 2022 年总统令批准的《维护和加强俄罗斯传统精神和道德价值观的国家政策基本原则》中记录的价值观视为传统价值观,并将其与《宪法》价值观、基督教、伊斯兰教、佛教和犹太教的基本道德要求以及俄罗斯联邦战略文件和国家发展目标中概述的价值观进行了比较。研究表明,官方宣布的传统精神和道德价值观与宪法价值观并不完全一致,同时,它们更注重世俗伦理而非世界宗教原则。同时,作者还揭示了这些价值观与最高级别的目标文件和国家项目之间的不一致。作者认为,在当前条件下,这种不一致会削弱立法者行动的效果,但比起连贯、系统地引入价值观,其常规性可能更有问题。只有在对公众舆论、纵向趋势、政治和经济进程进行详细和实质性研究之后,才有可能揭示具有社会意义的规范。否则,规范的固化会导致社会的进一步分化,而不是巩固。
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引用次数: 0
Challenges of Agora of Digital Society 数字社会 Agora 的挑战
Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2023-111-4-7-30
K. E. Petrov
The article attempts to use the theory of conceptual metaphor to compare distant communicative practices of Ancient Greece and modern times. The author interprets digital communications and social media as Digital Agora, or Agora 2.0. Just as during ancient times the influence of the Agora made the Athenian aristocracy reckon with the demos, the influence of social media has significantly reshaped the modern political process, limiting the former capabilities of the elites. The use of the conceptual metaphor of Agora 2.0 allows the author to clarify similarities in the functioning of open communication systems, within which the mass dissemination of persuasive fake news and/or foreign interference in the electoral process turn out to be essentially insurmountable. Societies have to adapt in order to compensate for the potentially destructive effects of agorocentric structures. According to the author, it is still an open question of whether the Digital Agora will cope with numerous challenges, or whether the trends causing irreparable damage to democratic institutions will prevail. When examining a potential response to the challenges posed by the existence of the Digital Agora, the author makes use of a biological metaphor of an immune response, employing it to analyze most probable scenarios — from a radical ban on the Agora 2.0’s very infrastructure to the introduction of subtle homogenizing institutions that prevent the unchecked growth of populist influence.
文章试图利用概念隐喻理论来比较古希腊和现代的遥远交流实践。作者将数字通信和社交媒体解释为数字阿戈拉(Digital Agora)或阿戈拉 2.0。正如在古代,阿戈拉的影响使雅典贵族与民众进行对话一样,社交媒体的影响极大地重塑了现代政治进程,限制了精英们以往的能力。通过使用 "阿戈拉 2.0 "这一概念隐喻,作者阐明了开放式通信系统运作的相似之处,在这些系统中,有说服力的假新闻的大规模传播和/或外国对选举进程的干预基本上是不可克服的。社会必须做出调整,以弥补农业中心主义结构的潜在破坏性影响。作者认为,数字阿戈拉(Digital Agora)是否能应对众多挑战,或者对民主体制造成不可挽回损害的趋势是否会占上风,这仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。在研究应对数字阿戈拉存在所带来的挑战的潜在对策时,作者使用了免疫反应的生物学隐喻,分析了最有可能发生的情况--从彻底禁止阿戈拉 2.0 的基础设施到引入微妙的同质化机构以防止民粹主义影响的肆意增长。
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The Journal of Political Theory, Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics Politeia
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