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The Effects of Geopolitical Risk on Foreign Direct Investment in a Transition Economy: Evidence from Vietnam 地缘政治风险对转型经济体外国直接投资的影响:越南的证据
Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17030101
L. Truong, H. Friday, Tan Duy Pham
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a key driver of economic development of both developed and developing countries. Understanding and having insights into the factors that motivate increased FDI arevery important for both academics and policy makers. A key factor that multinationals incorporate in their decisions on FDI is geopolitical risk (GPR). Therefore, this study is devotedto investigating the short-term and long-term effects of GPR on FDI in Vietnam. Data used in this study are the yearly geopolitical risk index, FDI, and other control variables covering the period from 1986 to 2021. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the empirical results confirm that geopolitical risk (GPR) has a significantly negative effect on FDI in Vietnam in the longterm. Specifically, in the longterm, 1 percent increase in the GPR index is associated with 5.7983 percent decrease in Vietnam’s FDI. In addition, the results derived from the ARDL model indicate that in the shortterm, GPR has a significantly positive effect on the FDI for the one-year lag, meaning that an increase in the GPR index leads to an increase in FDI. Moreover, the results derived from the error correction model (ECM) indicate that 42.89% of the disequilibria from the previous year are converged and corrected back to the long-run equilibrium in the current year. Based on the findings, some policy implications are drawn for policymakers to mitigate the negative effects of GPR on FDI.
外国直接投资(FDI)是发达国家和发展中国家经济发展的主要驱动力。了解和洞察促使外国直接投资增加的因素对学术界和政策制定者都非常重要。跨国公司在做出外国直接投资决策时考虑的一个关键因素是地缘政治风险(GPR)。因此,本研究致力于调查地缘政治风险对越南外国直接投资的短期和长期影响。本研究使用的数据为 1986 年至 2021 年期间的年度地缘政治风险指数、外国直接投资和其他控制变量。利用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验方法,实证结果证实,地缘政治风险(GPR)对越南的外国直接投资具有显著的长期负面影响。具体而言,从长期来看,地缘政治风险指数每增加 1%,越南的外国直接投资就会减少 5.7983%。此外,ARDL 模型得出的结果表明,在短期内,GPR 对滞后一年的外国直接投资有显著的正向影响,这意味着 GPR 指数的增加会导致外国直接投资的增加。此外,误差修正模型(ECM)得出的结果表明,42.89%的上年不平衡在当年收敛并修正回长期均衡。根据研究结果,为决策者提供了一些政策启示,以减轻 GPR 对外国直接投资的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Double Asymmetric Impacts, Dynamic Correlations, and Risk Management Amidst Market Risks: A Comparative Study between the US and China 双重非对称影响、动态相关性和市场风险中的风险管理:中美比较研究
Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17030099
Yu Poshan, Haoran Xu, Jianing Chen
Extreme shocks, including climate change, economic sanctions, geopolitical conflicts, etc., are significant and complex issues currently confronting the global world. From the US–China perspective, this paper employs the DCC-DAGM model to investigate how diverse market risks asymmetrically affect return volatility, and extract correlations between stock indices and hedging assets. Then, diversified and hedging portfolios, constructed by optimal weight and hedge ratio, are investigated using multiple risk reduction measures. The empirical results highlight that, first, diverse risks exhibit an asymmetric effect on the return volatility in the long term, while in the short term, the US stock market is more sensitive to negative return shocks than the Chinese market. Second, risks impact correlations differently across time horizons and countries. Short-term correlations are stronger than long-term ones for the US market, with the Chinese stock market displaying more stable correlations. Third, the hedging strategy is more effective in reducing volatility and risk for US stocks, while the diversification strategy proves more effective for Chinese stocks. These findings have implications for market participants striving to make their portfolios robust during turbulent times.
气候变化、经济制裁、地缘政治冲突等极端冲击是当前全球面临的重大而复杂的问题。本文从中美两国的视角出发,运用 DCC-DAGM 模型研究了多样化的市场风险对收益波动的非对称性影响,并提取了股指与对冲资产之间的相关性。然后,利用多种风险降低措施,研究了由最优权重和对冲比率构建的多元化投资组合和对冲投资组合。实证结果表明:第一,多元化风险对收益波动的长期影响是不对称的,而在短期内,美国股市比中国市场对负收益冲击更敏感。其次,风险对不同时间跨度和不同国家的相关性的影响也不同。美国股市的短期相关性强于长期相关性,而中国股市的相关性更为稳定。第三,对冲策略在降低美股的波动性和风险方面更为有效,而分散化策略对中国股市更为有效。这些发现对市场参与者在动荡时期努力使自己的投资组合保持稳健具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Financial Inclusion in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Jordan 新兴经济体的数字金融包容性:来自约旦的证据
Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17020066
Abdalla Al Khub, Mohamed Saeudy, A. Gerged
This study explores the role of digital financial inclusion in mitigating poverty and bolstering economic growth, with a special focus on developing nations during the COVID-19 era. Centering on Jordan, it seeks to identify key influencers of financial access by analyzing data from 260 participants using a non-linear probit regression model. The research uncovers a significant disparity in financial inclusion between Jordanian adult males and females, attributable to differences in education, wealth, employment, and income levels. These findings point to the necessity of prioritizing financial accessibility for marginalized groups such as women, the elderly, and those with lower income to effectively combat poverty and facilitate economic advancement and sustainable development in emerging markets.
本研究探讨了数字普惠金融在减少贫困和促进经济增长方面的作用,特别关注 COVID-19 时代的发展中国家。研究以约旦为中心,通过使用非线性概率回归模型分析 260 名参与者的数据,试图找出影响金融获取的关键因素。研究发现,由于教育、财富、就业和收入水平的差异,约旦成年男性和女性在金融包容性方面存在显著差距。这些发现表明,有必要优先考虑妇女、老年人和低收入者等边缘群体的金融可得性,以有效消除贫困,促进新兴市场的经济进步和可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Financial Inclusion in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Jordan 新兴经济体的数字金融包容性:来自约旦的证据
Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17020066
Abdalla Al Khub, Mohamed Saeudy, A. Gerged
This study explores the role of digital financial inclusion in mitigating poverty and bolstering economic growth, with a special focus on developing nations during the COVID-19 era. Centering on Jordan, it seeks to identify key influencers of financial access by analyzing data from 260 participants using a non-linear probit regression model. The research uncovers a significant disparity in financial inclusion between Jordanian adult males and females, attributable to differences in education, wealth, employment, and income levels. These findings point to the necessity of prioritizing financial accessibility for marginalized groups such as women, the elderly, and those with lower income to effectively combat poverty and facilitate economic advancement and sustainable development in emerging markets.
本研究探讨了数字普惠金融在减少贫困和促进经济增长方面的作用,特别关注 COVID-19 时代的发展中国家。研究以约旦为中心,通过使用非线性概率回归模型分析 260 名参与者的数据,试图找出影响金融获取的关键因素。研究发现,由于教育、财富、就业和收入水平的差异,约旦成年男性和女性在金融包容性方面存在显著差距。这些发现表明,有必要优先考虑妇女、老年人和低收入者等边缘群体的金融可得性,以有效消除贫困,促进新兴市场的经济进步和可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Illusion of Control: Psychological Characteristics as Moderators in Financial Decision Making 控制的错觉:作为财务决策调节因素的心理特征
Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17020065
Tobias Schütze, Ulrich Schmidt, Carsten Spitzer, Philipp C. Wichardt
Financial decision making requires a sound handling of chance events. However, various studies have suggested that people are prone to illusion of control, i.e., the belief that prospects of a chancy event are better if they are involved in the randomisation process. This paper reports results from an experiment (N=420) suggesting that psychological characteristics moderate risk-taking behaviour under such circumstances. For example, we find that subjects high in sensation seeking buy more tickets of a risky lottery if they determine the winning numbers themselves and the random event lies in the future. The findings suggest that “illusion of control” effects are at least partly driven by underlying (idiosyncratic) emotions/preferences rather than an actual belief in control. Regarding applications, the results emphasise the importance of individual characteristics for the behaviour of decision makers in a financial context.
财务决策需要妥善处理偶然事件。然而,多项研究表明,人们容易产生控制幻觉,即认为如果自己参与随机化过程,偶然事件的前景会更好。本文报告的一项实验(N=420)结果表明,在这种情况下,心理特征会调节冒险行为。例如,我们发现,如果中奖号码由受试者自己决定,且随机事件发生在未来,那么追求感觉的受试者会购买更多的风险彩票。研究结果表明,"控制幻觉 "效应至少有一部分是由潜在的(特异的)情绪/偏好驱动的,而不是实际的控制信念。在应用方面,研究结果强调了个人特征对金融决策者行为的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
AIIB Investment and Economic Development of India: The Case of the Gujarat Road Project AIIB 投资与印度经济发展:古吉拉特邦公路项目案例
Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17020064
Jinxi Chen, Bowen Cai
The purpose of this study is to verify whether the transportation infrastructure investment carried out by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has promoted the economic development of its recipient countries. Since the establishment of the AIIB, its investments in infrastructure development, aimed at promoting economic growth in Asian developing countries, have garnered considerable attention. This study selects India, the largest recipient country of the AIIB, as the research object and chooses the Gujarat Road Project as the research case, since it is a completed infrastructure construction investment project in the transportation field. This paper provides an overview of the project’s operation and summarizes key factors in the project’s implementation. In the data analysis section, the per capita GDP is selected as the explained variable to measure economic development, and the LASSO regression method is used to select several variables that affect economic development. Moreover, the random forest model is used to obtain the causal relationship between road construction and the per capita GDP from 2001 to 2022. The results indicate that road construction in India has a significant positive effect on per capita GDP growth, the Gujarat Road Project supported by the AIIB also has a positive effect on per capita GDP growth, and this effect is stronger than that at the national level. The main contribution of this work is the validation of the investment strategy of the AIIB and the quantification of the economic contribution of AIIB investment projects to the local area.
本研究的目的是验证亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)进行的交通基础设施投资是否促进了受援国的经济发展。自亚洲基础设施投资银行成立以来,其旨在促进亚洲发展中国家经济增长的基础设施建设投资已引起广泛关注。本研究选择亚洲基础设施投资银行最大的受援国印度作为研究对象,并选择古吉拉特邦公路项目作为研究案例,因为该项目是一个已完成的交通领域基础设施建设投资项目。本文概述了该项目的运营情况,并总结了项目实施过程中的关键因素。在数据分析部分,本文选取人均 GDP 作为衡量经济发展的被解释变量,并使用 LASSO 回归法选取了影响经济发展的几个变量。此外,还使用随机森林模型得出 2001 年至 2022 年公路建设与人均 GDP 之间的因果关系。结果表明,印度的道路建设对人均 GDP 增长有显著的正向影响,由亚洲基础设施投资银行支持的古吉拉特邦道路项目也对人均 GDP 增长有正向影响,且这种影响强于国家层面的影响。这项工作的主要贡献在于验证了亚洲国际投资银行的投资战略,并量化了亚洲国际投资银行投资项目对当地的经济贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Illusion of Control: Psychological Characteristics as Moderators in Financial Decision Making 控制的错觉:作为财务决策调节因素的心理特征
Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17020065
Tobias Schütze, Ulrich Schmidt, Carsten Spitzer, Philipp C. Wichardt
Financial decision making requires a sound handling of chance events. However, various studies have suggested that people are prone to illusion of control, i.e., the belief that prospects of a chancy event are better if they are involved in the randomisation process. This paper reports results from an experiment (N=420) suggesting that psychological characteristics moderate risk-taking behaviour under such circumstances. For example, we find that subjects high in sensation seeking buy more tickets of a risky lottery if they determine the winning numbers themselves and the random event lies in the future. The findings suggest that “illusion of control” effects are at least partly driven by underlying (idiosyncratic) emotions/preferences rather than an actual belief in control. Regarding applications, the results emphasise the importance of individual characteristics for the behaviour of decision makers in a financial context.
财务决策需要妥善处理偶然事件。然而,多项研究表明,人们容易产生控制幻觉,即认为如果自己参与随机化过程,偶然事件的前景会更好。本文报告的一项实验(N=420)结果表明,在这种情况下,心理特征会调节冒险行为。例如,我们发现,如果中奖号码由受试者自己决定,且随机事件发生在未来,那么追求感觉的受试者会购买更多的风险彩票。研究结果表明,"控制幻觉 "效应至少有一部分是由潜在的(特异的)情绪/偏好驱动的,而不是实际的控制信念。在应用方面,研究结果强调了个人特征对金融决策者行为的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
AIIB Investment and Economic Development of India: The Case of the Gujarat Road Project AIIB 投资与印度经济发展:古吉拉特邦公路项目案例
Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17020064
Jinxi Chen, Bowen Cai
The purpose of this study is to verify whether the transportation infrastructure investment carried out by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has promoted the economic development of its recipient countries. Since the establishment of the AIIB, its investments in infrastructure development, aimed at promoting economic growth in Asian developing countries, have garnered considerable attention. This study selects India, the largest recipient country of the AIIB, as the research object and chooses the Gujarat Road Project as the research case, since it is a completed infrastructure construction investment project in the transportation field. This paper provides an overview of the project’s operation and summarizes key factors in the project’s implementation. In the data analysis section, the per capita GDP is selected as the explained variable to measure economic development, and the LASSO regression method is used to select several variables that affect economic development. Moreover, the random forest model is used to obtain the causal relationship between road construction and the per capita GDP from 2001 to 2022. The results indicate that road construction in India has a significant positive effect on per capita GDP growth, the Gujarat Road Project supported by the AIIB also has a positive effect on per capita GDP growth, and this effect is stronger than that at the national level. The main contribution of this work is the validation of the investment strategy of the AIIB and the quantification of the economic contribution of AIIB investment projects to the local area.
本研究的目的是验证亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)进行的交通基础设施投资是否促进了受援国的经济发展。自亚洲基础设施投资银行成立以来,其旨在促进亚洲发展中国家经济增长的基础设施建设投资已引起广泛关注。本研究选择亚洲基础设施投资银行最大的受援国印度作为研究对象,并选择古吉拉特邦公路项目作为研究案例,因为该项目是一个已完成的交通领域基础设施建设投资项目。本文概述了该项目的运营情况,并总结了项目实施过程中的关键因素。在数据分析部分,本文选取人均 GDP 作为衡量经济发展的被解释变量,并使用 LASSO 回归法选取了影响经济发展的几个变量。此外,还使用随机森林模型得出 2001 年至 2022 年公路建设与人均 GDP 之间的因果关系。结果表明,印度的道路建设对人均 GDP 增长有显著的正向影响,由亚洲基础设施投资银行支持的古吉拉特邦道路项目也对人均 GDP 增长有正向影响,且这种影响强于国家层面的影响。这项工作的主要贡献在于验证了亚洲国际投资银行的投资战略,并量化了亚洲国际投资银行投资项目对当地的经济贡献。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of ESG Rating on Hedging Downside Risks: Evidence from a Weight-Tilted Hang Seng Index ESG 评级对对冲下行风险的影响:来自权重倾斜恒生指数的证据
Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.3390/jrfm17020057
Joseph K. W. Fung, F. Y. E. Lam, Yiuman Tse
The study examines the return performance and resilience to market volatility of the recently introduced environment, social/sustainable, and governance (ESG) weight-tilted Hang Seng index compared to its parent, the Hang Seng index. The ESG-infused index has a higher mean return and lower return volatility than the parent index, although the differences are statistically and economically insignificant, a result consistent with the high correlation between the two index returns. Most importantly, the ESG weight-tilted index is more resilient to volatility spikes than the parent index and, therefore, has lower downside risks. The overall results show that stocks with high ESG ratings are less susceptible to trading pressures triggered by volatility-induced turnovers. The paper contributes to the literature by providing significant incremental information on the emerging market for ESG-related equity products in Hong Kong.
本研究考察了最近推出的环境、社会/可持续发展和公司治理(ESG)权重倾斜的恒生指数与其母指数恒生指数相比的回报表现和对市场波动的适应能力。与母指数相比,注入 ESG 的恒生指数平均回报率更高,回报波动率更低,尽管两者之间的差异在统计和经济上并不显著,但这一结果与两个指数回报率之间的高度相关性是一致的。最重要的是,ESG 权重倾斜指数比母指数更能抵御波动高峰,因此下行风险更低。总体结果表明,ESG 评级高的股票不易受到波动引发的交易压力的影响。本文为香港新兴的 ESG 相关股票产品市场提供了重要的增量信息,为相关文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Risk and Financial Management
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