Pub Date : 2020-09-14DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.12.20193433
M. V. W. de Vries, L. Rambabu
Natural disasters and infectious diseases result in widespread disruption to human health and livelihood. At the scale of a global pandemic, the co-occurrence of natural disasters is inevitable. However, the impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19 has not been extensively evaluated through epidemiological modelling. We create an agent-based epidemiology model based on COVID-19 clinical, epidemiological, and geographic data. We first model 35 scenarios with varying natural disaster timing and duration for a COVID-19 outbreak in a theoretical region. We then evaluate the potential effect of an eruption of Vesuvius volcano on the spread of COVID-19 in Campania, Italy. In a majority of cases, the occurrence of a natural disaster increases the number of disease related fatalities. For a natural disaster fifty days after infection onset, the median increase in fatalities is 2, 59, and 180% for a 2, 14, and 31-day long natural disaster respectively, when compared to the no natural disaster scenario. For the Campania case, the median increase in fatalities is 1.1 and 2.4 additional fatalities per 100,000 for eruptions on day 1 and 100 respectively, and 60.0 additional fatalities per 100,000 for an eruption close to the peak in infections (day 50). Our results show that the occurrence of a natural disaster in most cases leads to an increase in infection related fatalities, with wide variance in possible outcomes depending on the timing of the natural disaster relative to the peak in infections and the duration of the natural disaster.
{"title":"The impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19: a geospatial, agent-based epidemiology model","authors":"M. V. W. de Vries, L. Rambabu","doi":"10.1101/2020.09.12.20193433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.12.20193433","url":null,"abstract":"Natural disasters and infectious diseases result in widespread disruption to human health and livelihood. At the scale of a global pandemic, the co-occurrence of natural disasters is inevitable. However, the impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19 has not been extensively evaluated through epidemiological modelling. We create an agent-based epidemiology model based on COVID-19 clinical, epidemiological, and geographic data. We first model 35 scenarios with varying natural disaster timing and duration for a COVID-19 outbreak in a theoretical region. We then evaluate the potential effect of an eruption of Vesuvius volcano on the spread of COVID-19 in Campania, Italy. In a majority of cases, the occurrence of a natural disaster increases the number of disease related fatalities. For a natural disaster fifty days after infection onset, the median increase in fatalities is 2, 59, and 180% for a 2, 14, and 31-day long natural disaster respectively, when compared to the no natural disaster scenario. For the Campania case, the median increase in fatalities is 1.1 and 2.4 additional fatalities per 100,000 for eruptions on day 1 and 100 respectively, and 60.0 additional fatalities per 100,000 for an eruption close to the peak in infections (day 50). Our results show that the occurrence of a natural disaster in most cases leads to an increase in infection related fatalities, with wide variance in possible outcomes depending on the timing of the natural disaster relative to the peak in infections and the duration of the natural disaster.","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44225059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-12DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-16896/v1
Gianluigi Zangari del Balzo
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.
本文的修正案已经发表，可以通过原文章访问。
{"title":"Correction to: Statistical field theory of the transmission of nerve impulses","authors":"Gianluigi Zangari del Balzo","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-16896/v1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-16896/v1","url":null,"abstract":"An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"18 1","pages":"1"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43229491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-02-01DOI: 10.1186/s12976-017-0050-0
Xiong Li, Wen Jiang
{"title":"Method for generating multiple risky barcodes of complex diseases using ant colony algorithm","authors":"Xiong Li, Wen Jiang","doi":"10.1186/s12976-017-0050-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-017-0050-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87589452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-01-28DOI: 10.1186/s12976-017-0049-6
Victor M. Moreno, B. Espinoza, K. Barley, Marlio Paredes, Derdei Bichara, A. Mubayi, C. Castillo-Chavez
{"title":"The role of mobility and health disparities on the transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis","authors":"Victor M. Moreno, B. Espinoza, K. Barley, Marlio Paredes, Derdei Bichara, A. Mubayi, C. Castillo-Chavez","doi":"10.1186/s12976-017-0049-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-017-0049-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-017-0049-6","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-11-09DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1
Linh Dinh, G. Chowell, K. Mizumoto, H. Nishiura
{"title":"Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016","authors":"Linh Dinh, G. Chowell, K. Mizumoto, H. Nishiura","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-03-03DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0034-5
V. Rezania, D. Coombe, J. Tuszynski
{"title":"A physiologically-based flow network model for hepatic drug elimination III: 2D/3D DLA lobule models","authors":"V. Rezania, D. Coombe, J. Tuszynski","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0034-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0034-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0034-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-03-02DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0036-3
Yanjun Li, C. Chow, A. Courville, A. Sumner, V. Periwal
{"title":"Modeling glucose and free fatty acid kinetics in glucose and meal tolerance test","authors":"Yanjun Li, C. Chow, A. Courville, A. Sumner, V. Periwal","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0036-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0036-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0036-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-02-29DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0035-4
N. Carels, Lizania Spinasse, T. Tilli, J. Tuszynski
{"title":"Toward precision medicine of breast cancer","authors":"N. Carels, Lizania Spinasse, T. Tilli, J. Tuszynski","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0035-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0035-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0035-4","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-02-09DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0031-8
J. Sawamura, Shigeru Morishita, J. Ishigooka
{"title":"A group matrix representation relevant to scales of measurement of clinical disease states via stratified vectors","authors":"J. Sawamura, Shigeru Morishita, J. Ishigooka","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0031-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0031-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0031-8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-01-27DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0029-2
R. Strilka, M. Stull, Michael S. Clemens, Stewart C. McCaver, S. Armen
{"title":"Simulation and qualitative analysis of glucose variability, mean glucose, and hypoglycemia after subcutaneous insulin therapy for stress hyperglycemia","authors":"R. Strilka, M. Stull, Michael S. Clemens, Stewart C. McCaver, S. Armen","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0029-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0029-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0029-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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