Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00333-3
Shaun D Fitzgerald, Albert Van Wijngaarden, Ramit Debnath, Zoe Fritz
Conversations about climate engineering are difficult to have in many spaces. While public debate deserves exploration, we focus on the difficulties scientific discussions around climate engineering face. For inspiration on how to improve this contested space we turn specifically to the history of controversial medical research. Some ways to move forward might consist of establishing an oversight mechanism, defining boundaries and introducing a specialised review system.
{"title":"Could lessons from medical research ethics inform better conversations and governance for climate engineering research.","authors":"Shaun D Fitzgerald, Albert Van Wijngaarden, Ramit Debnath, Zoe Fritz","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00333-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-025-00333-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Conversations about climate engineering are difficult to have in many spaces. While public debate deserves exploration, we focus on the difficulties <i>scientific</i> discussions around climate engineering face. For inspiration on how to improve this contested space we turn specifically to the history of controversial medical research. Some ways to move forward might consist of establishing an oversight mechanism, defining boundaries and introducing a specialised review system.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"5 1","pages":"10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12815671/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146021073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00331-5
Wout Jan-Willem Sommerauer, Bregje van der Bolt, Saskia Werners, Wouter Julius Smolenaars, Marlies van Ree, Fulco Ludwig
Effective climate adaptation planning requires understanding various sources and types of uncertainty. We investigated how a serious game can improve participants' understanding of uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Using mixed-methods with pre-post surveys and debriefing sessions, we engaged 55 university students in an adaptation pathways game simulating regional planning challenges over five decades with disruptive events. Results showed participants shifted from appreciating uncertainty as either environmental or institutional, to incorporating political shifts, institutional dynamics, and implementation challenges. Participants preferred flexible strategies over scenario optimization, with political disruptions generating stronger reactions than environmental shocks. Cognitive learning about uncertainty types facilitated normative learning effects, shifting strategic preferences. Participants recognizing diverse uncertainty dimensions became less confident in controlling outcomes, favouring more flexible and resilient strategies. Our findings, with contextual limitations, indicate serious games could help stakeholders develop an appreciation for adaptation approaches that maintain multiple options in parallel over single-pathway sequential solutions under uncertainty.
{"title":"Gaming the unknown: learning to differentiate and respond to uncertainty through a serious game.","authors":"Wout Jan-Willem Sommerauer, Bregje van der Bolt, Saskia Werners, Wouter Julius Smolenaars, Marlies van Ree, Fulco Ludwig","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00331-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-025-00331-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Effective climate adaptation planning requires understanding various sources and types of uncertainty. We investigated how a serious game can improve participants' understanding of uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Using mixed-methods with pre-post surveys and debriefing sessions, we engaged 55 university students in an adaptation pathways game simulating regional planning challenges over five decades with disruptive events. Results showed participants shifted from appreciating uncertainty as either environmental or institutional, to incorporating political shifts, institutional dynamics, and implementation challenges. Participants preferred flexible strategies over scenario optimization, with political disruptions generating stronger reactions than environmental shocks. Cognitive learning about uncertainty types facilitated normative learning effects, shifting strategic preferences. Participants recognizing diverse uncertainty dimensions became less confident in controlling outcomes, favouring more flexible and resilient strategies. Our findings, with contextual limitations, indicate serious games could help stakeholders develop an appreciation for adaptation approaches that maintain multiple options in parallel over single-pathway sequential solutions under uncertainty.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"5 1","pages":"5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12790468/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145961018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2026-01-28DOI: 10.1038/s44168-026-00341-x
Phoebe Koundouri, Ebun Akinsete, Tony Capon, Rita R Colwell, Adel S El-Beltagy, Ismahane Elouafi, Jim Falk, Alberto Naveira Garabato, Charles F Kennel, Conrad Landis, Margaret Leinen, Ali Mashayek, Cherry A Murray, Ismail Serageldin, Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Makoto Taniguchi, Eleni Toli
Protecting our oceans and advancing a sustainable blue economy require in-depth understanding of marine systems, driven by robust ocean observation, monitoring and valuation. Yet collecting reliable data remains time- and resource-intensive. This data is vital for scientists, emergency responders, and decision-makers to support early-warning systems and emerging tools like digital twins. Stronger support is therefore needed for data collection and its integration into systemic, innovative, and stakeholder-engaged ocean observation efforts.
{"title":"Systemic approaches for the protection of our oceans and marine environments.","authors":"Phoebe Koundouri, Ebun Akinsete, Tony Capon, Rita R Colwell, Adel S El-Beltagy, Ismahane Elouafi, Jim Falk, Alberto Naveira Garabato, Charles F Kennel, Conrad Landis, Margaret Leinen, Ali Mashayek, Cherry A Murray, Ismail Serageldin, Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Makoto Taniguchi, Eleni Toli","doi":"10.1038/s44168-026-00341-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-026-00341-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Protecting our oceans and advancing a sustainable blue economy require in-depth understanding of marine systems, driven by robust ocean observation, monitoring and valuation. Yet collecting reliable data remains time- and resource-intensive. This data is vital for scientists, emergency responders, and decision-makers to support early-warning systems and emerging tools like digital twins. Stronger support is therefore needed for data collection and its integration into systemic, innovative, and stakeholder-engaged ocean observation efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"5 1","pages":"13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12846913/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146088738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-08-28DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00282-x
Viktoria Spaiser, Nicole Nisbett
Effective climate change mitigation requires profound lifestyle changes and citizens' support for transformational climate policies. We present a comprehensive, highly granular, field-experiment dataset of people's self-reported, daily, real-life behaviours measured in CO2e across six domains, as well as their civic and political behaviour. The data (N = 156, 7615 repeated observations over 8 weeks) was collected via a bespoke smartphone app and is enriched by people's daily reflections on their change trajectories and by data on political leaning, emotions, agency, socio-demographics, values, attitudes and social norms. The study shows that exposing people to moral appeals results in overall carbon footprint reduction (particularly from heating, food and consumption), and in greater civic and political climate action, including among people leaning politically to the centre and right. However, the treatment could lead to some backlash, i.e. increased carbon footprint (particularly from food and car journeys) in people who hold egoistic values.
{"title":"Mobilising climate action with moral appeals in a smartphone-based 8-week field experiment.","authors":"Viktoria Spaiser, Nicole Nisbett","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00282-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-025-00282-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Effective climate change mitigation requires profound lifestyle changes and citizens' support for transformational climate policies. We present a comprehensive, highly granular, field-experiment dataset of people's self-reported, daily, real-life behaviours measured in CO<sub>2</sub>e across six domains, as well as their civic and political behaviour. The data (<i>N</i> = 156, 7615 repeated observations over 8 weeks) was collected via a bespoke smartphone app and is enriched by people's daily reflections on their change trajectories and by data on political leaning, emotions, agency, socio-demographics, values, attitudes and social norms. The study shows that exposing people to moral appeals results in overall carbon footprint reduction (particularly from heating, food and consumption), and in greater civic and political climate action, including among people leaning politically to the centre and right. However, the treatment could lead to some backlash, i.e. increased carbon footprint (particularly from food and car journeys) in people who hold egoistic values.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"4 1","pages":"81"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12394071/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144985622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00320-8
Bård Lahn, Ida Sognnaes, Erlend A T Hermansen
Emissions scenarios generated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important element in the IPCC's relevance for climate action, but little attention has been given to how scenarios are used in practice. This article draws on insights from Science and Technology Studies (STS) to develop a framework for analysing scenario use and provides an exploratory case study of scenario users in government and energy-related companies in Norway. We find that scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios' strengths, limitations and uncertainties. Institutional ties, trust, and alignment in problem definition play important roles when organisations choose which scenarios to work with, and the political implications of scenario choice are frequently acknowledged. We conclude that more attention should be paid to the actual use of scenarios in discussions about the IPCC's policy relevance.
{"title":"Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice.","authors":"Bård Lahn, Ida Sognnaes, Erlend A T Hermansen","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00320-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-025-00320-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Emissions scenarios generated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important element in the IPCC's relevance for climate action, but little attention has been given to how scenarios are used in practice. This article draws on insights from Science and Technology Studies (STS) to develop a framework for analysing scenario use and provides an exploratory case study of scenario users in government and energy-related companies in Norway. We find that scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios' strengths, limitations and uncertainties. Institutional ties, trust, and alignment in problem definition play important roles when organisations choose which scenarios to work with, and the political implications of scenario choice are frequently acknowledged. We conclude that more attention should be paid to the actual use of scenarios in discussions about the IPCC's policy relevance.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"4 1","pages":"117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12727509/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145835921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We provide the first systematic analysis of whether, how, and to what extent people with disabilities and their human rights are included in two subsets of climate policies adopted by 195 parties to the Paris Agreement. We found that only 41 parties mention people with disabilities in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), whereas only 75 do so in their adaptation policies. Moreover, these references are rarely accompanied by concrete measures to include people with disabilities, their rights, or their knowledge in climate decision-making. Our findings demonstrate that states are generally not abiding by their obligations to respect, protect, and fulfill the human rights of persons with disabilities under international and domestic law. This exposes people with disabilities to climate-related harm and reinforces, rather than disrupts, the inequities they face in societies around the world. It also fails to harness the multiple benefits associated with a disability-inclusive approach to climate action.
{"title":"A systematic analysis of disability inclusion in domestic climate policies.","authors":"Sébastien Jodoin, Amanda Bowie-Edwards, Katherine Lofts, Sajneet Mangat, Bianca Adjei, Alexandra Lesnikowski","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00228-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-025-00228-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We provide the first systematic analysis of whether, how, and to what extent people with disabilities and their human rights are included in two subsets of climate policies adopted by 195 parties to the Paris Agreement. We found that only 41 parties mention people with disabilities in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), whereas only 75 do so in their adaptation policies. Moreover, these references are rarely accompanied by concrete measures to include people with disabilities, their rights, or their knowledge in climate decision-making. Our findings demonstrate that states are generally not abiding by their obligations to respect, protect, and fulfill the human rights of persons with disabilities under international and domestic law. This exposes people with disabilities to climate-related harm and reinforces, rather than disrupts, the inequities they face in societies around the world. It also fails to harness the multiple benefits associated with a disability-inclusive approach to climate action.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"4 1","pages":"24"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11876069/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143568852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-09-06DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00288-5
John A Pollock, Brinley Kantorski
Teens are experiencing an increase in the incidence of anxiety and depression. Climate change adds uncertainty. Dire predictions and unknown impacts contribute to teens' worldview, increasing concerns that add to their normal stressors and anxiety; and for some, this becomes overwhelming. Here, we present a new perspective on teen mental health education and the impact of learning about climate change. We conclude that a comprehensive education can integrate the facts of global climate change, along with the progress in climate mitigation together with mental health education.
{"title":"Weathering the storm: youth vulnerability and resilience during the climate crisis.","authors":"John A Pollock, Brinley Kantorski","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00288-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-025-00288-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Teens are experiencing an increase in the incidence of anxiety and depression. Climate change adds uncertainty. Dire predictions and unknown impacts contribute to teens' worldview, increasing concerns that add to their normal stressors and anxiety; and for some, this becomes overwhelming. Here, we present a new perspective on teen mental health education and the impact of learning about climate change. We conclude that a comprehensive education can integrate the facts of global climate change, along with the progress in climate mitigation together with mental health education.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"4 1","pages":"82"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12413992/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145025092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00309-3
Kate Donovan, Rowan Jackson, Siona O'Connell, Dulma Karunarathna, Arry Retnowati, Esti Anantasari, YoungHwa Cha, Dominique Niemand, David C Harvey, Andrew Dugmore
Climate change adaptation planning and implementation has been criticised for following linear steps that can limit local suitability, scalability and sustainability. We argue that meaningful climate change adaptations incorporate a diversity of voices using cultural heritage for situated and multi-generational interventions. Here, we present examples of risk narratives and adaptive strategies developed through engagement with cultural heritage, balancing knowledge of environment with local livelihoods, histories, values and meaning.
{"title":"Mobilising cultural heritage for locally owned adaptation.","authors":"Kate Donovan, Rowan Jackson, Siona O'Connell, Dulma Karunarathna, Arry Retnowati, Esti Anantasari, YoungHwa Cha, Dominique Niemand, David C Harvey, Andrew Dugmore","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00309-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-025-00309-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate change adaptation planning and implementation has been criticised for following linear steps that can limit local suitability, scalability and sustainability. We argue that meaningful climate change adaptations incorporate a diversity of voices using cultural heritage for situated and multi-generational interventions. Here, we present examples of risk narratives and adaptive strategies developed through engagement with cultural heritage, balancing knowledge of environment with local livelihoods, histories, values and meaning.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"4 1","pages":"104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12629986/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145592627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-03-29DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00212-x
Sarah Elven, Jorge Luis Castañeda Núñez, Samantha de Martino, Michelle Dugas, Sayan Kundu
De facto exclusion of vulnerable populations from markets for energy-efficient technologies can result in multiple barriers to access. For example, exclusion can lead to limited knowledge about available products, an inability to distinguish high-quality from low-quality devices, and limited options for financing, making products seem unobtainable. However, behaviorally informed interventions can offer promising solutions in such contexts, even where exclusion is the result of structural causes. This paper uses a randomized control trial to consider the potential of such interventions for refugees in Uganda in the context of certified solar markets. We evaluate a behaviorally-informed information and savings session embedded in Village Savings and Lending Association (VSLA) meetings, finding evidence for increased pursuit of certified solar products in the treatment group two months later. Results manifest through the barriers described, with increased knowledge, trust in solar companies, financial inclusion through savings group support, and aspirations mediating effects.
{"title":"Behavioral savings sessions increase the pursuit of solar products among refugees in Uganda.","authors":"Sarah Elven, Jorge Luis Castañeda Núñez, Samantha de Martino, Michelle Dugas, Sayan Kundu","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00212-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44168-025-00212-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>De facto exclusion of vulnerable populations from markets for energy-efficient technologies can result in multiple barriers to access. For example, exclusion can lead to limited knowledge about available products, an inability to distinguish high-quality from low-quality devices, and limited options for financing, making products seem unobtainable. However, behaviorally informed interventions can offer promising solutions in such contexts, even where exclusion is the result of structural causes. This paper uses a randomized control trial to consider the potential of such interventions for refugees in Uganda in the context of certified solar markets. We evaluate a behaviorally-informed information and savings session embedded in Village Savings and Lending Association (VSLA) meetings, finding evidence for increased pursuit of certified solar products in the treatment group two months later. Results manifest through the barriers described, with increased knowledge, trust in solar companies, financial inclusion through savings group support, and aspirations mediating effects.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"4 1","pages":"32"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954683/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143757514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-05-08DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00251-4
Boryana Todorova, David Steyrl, Matthew J Hornsey, Samuel Pearson, Cameron Brick, Florian Lange, Jay J Van Bavel, Madalina Vlasceanu, Claus Lamm, Kimberly C Doell
While numerous studies have examined factors associated with climate-friendly beliefs and behaviors, a systematic, cross-national ranking of their key correlates is lacking. We use interpretable machine learning to quantify the extent to which different climate-relevant outcomes (climate change belief, policy support, willingness to share information on social media, and a pro-environmental behavioral task) are predictable and to rank 19 individual- and nation-level predictors in terms of their importance across 55 countries (N = 4635). We find notable differences in explained variance for the outcomes (e.g., 57% for climate change belief vs. 10% for pro-environmental behavior). Four predictors had consistent effects across all outcomes: environmentalist identity, trust in climate science, internal environmental motivation, and the Human Development Index. However, most of the predictors show divergent patterns, predicting some but not all outcomes or even having opposite effects. To better capture this complexity, future models should include multi-level factors and consider the different contexts (e.g., public vs private) in which climate-related cognition and action emerge.
{"title":"Machine learning identifies key individual and nation-level factors predicting climate-relevant beliefs and behaviors.","authors":"Boryana Todorova, David Steyrl, Matthew J Hornsey, Samuel Pearson, Cameron Brick, Florian Lange, Jay J Van Bavel, Madalina Vlasceanu, Claus Lamm, Kimberly C Doell","doi":"10.1038/s44168-025-00251-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00251-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>While numerous studies have examined factors associated with climate-friendly beliefs and behaviors, a systematic, cross-national ranking of their key correlates is lacking. We use interpretable machine learning to quantify the extent to which different climate-relevant outcomes (climate change belief, policy support, willingness to share information on social media, and a pro-environmental behavioral task) are predictable and to rank 19 individual- and nation-level predictors in terms of their importance across 55 countries (<i>N</i> = 4635). We find notable differences in explained variance for the outcomes (e.g., 57% for climate change belief vs. 10% for pro-environmental behavior). Four predictors had consistent effects across all outcomes: environmentalist identity, trust in climate science, internal environmental motivation, and the Human Development Index. However, most of the predictors show divergent patterns, predicting some but not all outcomes or even having opposite effects. To better capture this complexity, future models should include multi-level factors and consider the different contexts (e.g., public vs private) in which climate-related cognition and action emerge.</p>","PeriodicalId":519998,"journal":{"name":"npj climate action","volume":"4 1","pages":"46"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12061775/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144061164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}