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Could lessons from medical research ethics inform better conversations and governance for climate engineering research. 医学研究伦理的教训能否为气候工程研究提供更好的对话和治理?
Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00333-3
Shaun D Fitzgerald, Albert Van Wijngaarden, Ramit Debnath, Zoe Fritz

Conversations about climate engineering are difficult to have in many spaces. While public debate deserves exploration, we focus on the difficulties scientific discussions around climate engineering face. For inspiration on how to improve this contested space we turn specifically to the history of controversial medical research. Some ways to move forward might consist of establishing an oversight mechanism, defining boundaries and introducing a specialised review system.

关于气候工程的讨论在很多地方都很难进行。虽然公众辩论值得探索,但我们关注的是围绕气候工程进行科学讨论所面临的困难。为了寻找如何改善这一争议空间的灵感,我们专门转向有争议的医学研究的历史。向前推进的一些方法可能包括建立监督机制、界定界限和引入专门的审查制度。
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引用次数: 0
Gaming the unknown: learning to differentiate and respond to uncertainty through a serious game. 游戏未知:通过严肃的游戏学习区分和应对不确定性。
Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00331-5
Wout Jan-Willem Sommerauer, Bregje van der Bolt, Saskia Werners, Wouter Julius Smolenaars, Marlies van Ree, Fulco Ludwig

Effective climate adaptation planning requires understanding various sources and types of uncertainty. We investigated how a serious game can improve participants' understanding of uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Using mixed-methods with pre-post surveys and debriefing sessions, we engaged 55 university students in an adaptation pathways game simulating regional planning challenges over five decades with disruptive events. Results showed participants shifted from appreciating uncertainty as either environmental or institutional, to incorporating political shifts, institutional dynamics, and implementation challenges. Participants preferred flexible strategies over scenario optimization, with political disruptions generating stronger reactions than environmental shocks. Cognitive learning about uncertainty types facilitated normative learning effects, shifting strategic preferences. Participants recognizing diverse uncertainty dimensions became less confident in controlling outcomes, favouring more flexible and resilient strategies. Our findings, with contextual limitations, indicate serious games could help stakeholders develop an appreciation for adaptation approaches that maintain multiple options in parallel over single-pathway sequential solutions under uncertainty.

有效的气候适应规划需要了解各种不确定性的来源和类型。我们研究了一个严肃的游戏如何提高参与者对适应决策中的不确定性的理解。采用前后调查和汇报会议相结合的混合方法,我们让55名大学生参与了一个适应路径游戏,模拟了50年来具有破坏性事件的区域规划挑战。结果显示,参与者从将不确定性视为环境或制度的不确定性,转变为将政治转变、制度动态和实施挑战纳入其中。参与者更喜欢灵活的策略,而不是情景优化,政治干扰比环境冲击产生更强烈的反应。不确定性类型的认知学习促进了规范性学习效应,改变了策略偏好。认识到不同不确定性维度的参与者在控制结果方面变得不那么自信,倾向于更灵活和有弹性的策略。我们的研究结果表明,在情境限制下,严肃游戏可以帮助利益相关者培养对适应方法的欣赏,这些方法在不确定的情况下保持多个并行选择,而不是单路径顺序解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Systemic approaches for the protection of our oceans and marine environments. 保护海洋和海洋环境的系统方法。
Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-026-00341-x
Phoebe Koundouri, Ebun Akinsete, Tony Capon, Rita R Colwell, Adel S El-Beltagy, Ismahane Elouafi, Jim Falk, Alberto Naveira Garabato, Charles F Kennel, Conrad Landis, Margaret Leinen, Ali Mashayek, Cherry A Murray, Ismail Serageldin, Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Makoto Taniguchi, Eleni Toli

Protecting our oceans and advancing a sustainable blue economy require in-depth understanding of marine systems, driven by robust ocean observation, monitoring and valuation. Yet collecting reliable data remains time- and resource-intensive. This data is vital for scientists, emergency responders, and decision-makers to support early-warning systems and emerging tools like digital twins. Stronger support is therefore needed for data collection and its integration into systemic, innovative, and stakeholder-engaged ocean observation efforts.

保护海洋和推进可持续的蓝色经济需要深入了解海洋系统,并以强有力的海洋观测、监测和评估为动力。然而,收集可靠的数据仍然需要耗费大量的时间和资源。这些数据对于科学家、应急人员和决策者支持早期预警系统和数字双胞胎等新兴工具至关重要。因此,需要加强对数据收集的支持,并将其纳入系统、创新和利益攸关方参与的海洋观测工作。
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引用次数: 0
Mobilising climate action with moral appeals in a smartphone-based 8-week field experiment. 在一项基于智能手机的为期8周的实地实验中,用道德呼吁动员气候行动。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00282-x
Viktoria Spaiser, Nicole Nisbett

Effective climate change mitigation requires profound lifestyle changes and citizens' support for transformational climate policies. We present a comprehensive, highly granular, field-experiment dataset of people's self-reported, daily, real-life behaviours measured in CO2e across six domains, as well as their civic and political behaviour. The data (N = 156, 7615 repeated observations over 8 weeks) was collected via a bespoke smartphone app and is enriched by people's daily reflections on their change trajectories and by data on political leaning, emotions, agency, socio-demographics, values, attitudes and social norms. The study shows that exposing people to moral appeals results in overall carbon footprint reduction (particularly from heating, food and consumption), and in greater civic and political climate action, including among people leaning politically to the centre and right. However, the treatment could lead to some backlash, i.e. increased carbon footprint (particularly from food and car journeys) in people who hold egoistic values.

有效减缓气候变化需要深刻的生活方式改变和公民对变革性气候政策的支持。我们提供了一个全面的、高度细化的现场实验数据集,其中包括人们自我报告的、日常的、现实生活中的行为,以六个领域的二氧化碳当量来衡量,以及他们的公民和政治行为。数据(N = 156,7615个重复观察,超过8周)是通过定制的智能手机应用程序收集的,并通过人们对自己变化轨迹的日常反思以及政治倾向、情感、代理、社会人口统计学、价值观、态度和社会规范的数据来丰富数据。该研究表明,让人们接受道德呼吁会导致总体碳足迹减少(特别是在取暖、食物和消费方面),并导致更多的公民和政治气候行动,包括政治上倾向于中右翼的人。然而,这种治疗方法可能会引起一些反弹,例如,对于那些持有利己主义价值观的人来说,碳足迹(特别是来自食物和汽车旅行)会增加。
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引用次数: 0
Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice. 分析实际使用的排放情况。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00320-8
Bård Lahn, Ida Sognnaes, Erlend A T Hermansen

Emissions scenarios generated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important element in the IPCC's relevance for climate action, but little attention has been given to how scenarios are used in practice. This article draws on insights from Science and Technology Studies (STS) to develop a framework for analysing scenario use and provides an exploratory case study of scenario users in government and energy-related companies in Norway. We find that scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios' strengths, limitations and uncertainties. Institutional ties, trust, and alignment in problem definition play important roles when organisations choose which scenarios to work with, and the political implications of scenario choice are frequently acknowledged. We conclude that more attention should be paid to the actual use of scenarios in discussions about the IPCC's policy relevance.

综合评估模型(iam)生成的排放情景是IPCC与气候行动相关的一个重要因素,但很少有人关注情景在实践中如何使用。本文借鉴科学与技术研究(STS)的见解,开发了一个分析情景使用的框架,并提供了挪威政府和能源相关公司的情景用户的探索性案例研究。我们发现场景被用于对比目的,但通常被知情的用户积极地解释和处理,他们知道不同场景的优势、局限性和不确定性。机构关系、信任和问题定义中的一致性在组织选择使用哪些场景时发挥着重要作用,并且场景选择的政治含义经常得到承认。我们的结论是,在讨论IPCC的政策相关性时,应该更多地关注情景的实际使用。
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引用次数: 0
A systematic analysis of disability inclusion in domestic climate policies. 国内气候政策中残障包容的系统分析。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00228-3
Sébastien Jodoin, Amanda Bowie-Edwards, Katherine Lofts, Sajneet Mangat, Bianca Adjei, Alexandra Lesnikowski

We provide the first systematic analysis of whether, how, and to what extent people with disabilities and their human rights are included in two subsets of climate policies adopted by 195 parties to the Paris Agreement. We found that only 41 parties mention people with disabilities in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), whereas only 75 do so in their adaptation policies. Moreover, these references are rarely accompanied by concrete measures to include people with disabilities, their rights, or their knowledge in climate decision-making. Our findings demonstrate that states are generally not abiding by their obligations to respect, protect, and fulfill the human rights of persons with disabilities under international and domestic law. This exposes people with disabilities to climate-related harm and reinforces, rather than disrupts, the inequities they face in societies around the world. It also fails to harness the multiple benefits associated with a disability-inclusive approach to climate action.

我们首次系统分析了《巴黎协定》195个缔约方采用的气候政策的两个子集是否、如何以及在多大程度上包括残疾人及其人权。我们发现,只有41个缔约方在国家自主贡献(NDCs)中提到了残疾人,而只有75个缔约方在适应政策中提到了残疾人。此外,这些参考文献很少附有将残疾人、他们的权利或他们在气候决策中的知识纳入其中的具体措施。我们的调查结果表明,各国普遍没有遵守国际法和国内法规定的尊重、保护和实现残疾人人权的义务。这使残疾人面临与气候有关的伤害,并加剧而不是破坏了他们在世界各地社会中面临的不平等。它也未能利用包容残疾人的气候行动方法所带来的多重好处。
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引用次数: 0
Weathering the storm: youth vulnerability and resilience during the climate crisis. 渡过风暴:气候危机期间青年的脆弱性和复原力。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00288-5
John A Pollock, Brinley Kantorski

Teens are experiencing an increase in the incidence of anxiety and depression. Climate change adds uncertainty. Dire predictions and unknown impacts contribute to teens' worldview, increasing concerns that add to their normal stressors and anxiety; and for some, this becomes overwhelming. Here, we present a new perspective on teen mental health education and the impact of learning about climate change. We conclude that a comprehensive education can integrate the facts of global climate change, along with the progress in climate mitigation together with mental health education.

青少年焦虑和抑郁的发生率正在上升。气候变化增加了不确定性。可怕的预测和未知的影响影响了青少年的世界观,增加了他们的担忧,增加了他们正常的压力源和焦虑;对一些人来说,这变得势不可挡。在这里,我们提出了一个关于青少年心理健康教育和学习气候变化的影响的新视角。我们的结论是,全面的教育可以整合全球气候变化的事实,以及气候减缓的进展,以及心理健康教育。
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引用次数: 0
Mobilising cultural heritage for locally owned adaptation. 调动文化遗产以适应地方的需要。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00309-3
Kate Donovan, Rowan Jackson, Siona O'Connell, Dulma Karunarathna, Arry Retnowati, Esti Anantasari, YoungHwa Cha, Dominique Niemand, David C Harvey, Andrew Dugmore

Climate change adaptation planning and implementation has been criticised for following linear steps that can limit local suitability, scalability and sustainability. We argue that meaningful climate change adaptations incorporate a diversity of voices using cultural heritage for situated and multi-generational interventions. Here, we present examples of risk narratives and adaptive strategies developed through engagement with cultural heritage, balancing knowledge of environment with local livelihoods, histories, values and meaning.

气候变化适应规划和实施因遵循线性步骤而受到批评,这些步骤可能限制当地的适用性、可扩展性和可持续性。我们认为,有意义的气候变化适应包括利用文化遗产进行情境和多代干预的多样性声音。在这里,我们展示了通过与文化遗产的接触,平衡环境知识与当地生计、历史、价值观和意义而制定的风险叙述和适应性策略的例子。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioral savings sessions increase the pursuit of solar products among refugees in Uganda. 行为储蓄课程提高了乌干达难民对太阳能产品的追求。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00212-x
Sarah Elven, Jorge Luis Castañeda Núñez, Samantha de Martino, Michelle Dugas, Sayan Kundu

De facto exclusion of vulnerable populations from markets for energy-efficient technologies can result in multiple barriers to access. For example, exclusion can lead to limited knowledge about available products, an inability to distinguish high-quality from low-quality devices, and limited options for financing, making products seem unobtainable. However, behaviorally informed interventions can offer promising solutions in such contexts, even where exclusion is the result of structural causes. This paper uses a randomized control trial to consider the potential of such interventions for refugees in Uganda in the context of certified solar markets. We evaluate a behaviorally-informed information and savings session embedded in Village Savings and Lending Association (VSLA) meetings, finding evidence for increased pursuit of certified solar products in the treatment group two months later. Results manifest through the barriers described, with increased knowledge, trust in solar companies, financial inclusion through savings group support, and aspirations mediating effects.

事实上,将弱势群体排除在节能技术市场之外,可能会造成获取这些技术的多重障碍。例如,排斥可能导致对现有产品的了解有限,无法区分高质量和低质量的设备,以及融资选择有限,使产品似乎无法获得。然而,在这种情况下,行为知情干预可以提供有希望的解决方案,即使在结构性原因导致排斥的情况下也是如此。本文使用随机对照试验来考虑在经过认证的太阳能市场背景下对乌干达难民进行此类干预的潜力。我们对村储贷协会(VSLA)会议中嵌入的行为信息和储蓄会议进行了评估,发现两个月后治疗组对经过认证的太阳能产品的追求有所增加。结果通过所描述的障碍表现出来,随着知识的增加,对太阳能公司的信任,通过储蓄团体支持的金融包容性,以及愿望的中介效应。
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引用次数: 0
Machine learning identifies key individual and nation-level factors predicting climate-relevant beliefs and behaviors. 机器学习识别预测气候相关信念和行为的关键个人和国家层面的因素。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-025-00251-4
Boryana Todorova, David Steyrl, Matthew J Hornsey, Samuel Pearson, Cameron Brick, Florian Lange, Jay J Van Bavel, Madalina Vlasceanu, Claus Lamm, Kimberly C Doell

While numerous studies have examined factors associated with climate-friendly beliefs and behaviors, a systematic, cross-national ranking of their key correlates is lacking. We use interpretable machine learning to quantify the extent to which different climate-relevant outcomes (climate change belief, policy support, willingness to share information on social media, and a pro-environmental behavioral task) are predictable and to rank 19 individual- and nation-level predictors in terms of their importance across 55 countries (N = 4635). We find notable differences in explained variance for the outcomes (e.g., 57% for climate change belief vs. 10% for pro-environmental behavior). Four predictors had consistent effects across all outcomes: environmentalist identity, trust in climate science, internal environmental motivation, and the Human Development Index. However, most of the predictors show divergent patterns, predicting some but not all outcomes or even having opposite effects. To better capture this complexity, future models should include multi-level factors and consider the different contexts (e.g., public vs private) in which climate-related cognition and action emerge.

虽然有许多研究调查了与气候友好信念和行为相关的因素,但缺乏对其关键相关因素进行系统的跨国排名。我们使用可解释的机器学习来量化不同气候相关结果(气候变化信念、政策支持、在社交媒体上分享信息的意愿、亲环境行为任务)的可预测程度,并根据其重要性对55个国家(N = 4635)的19个个人和国家层面的预测因素进行排名。我们发现结果的解释方差存在显著差异(例如,气候变化信念为57%,亲环境行为为10%)。四个预测因素对所有结果都有一致的影响:环保主义者身份、对气候科学的信任、内部环境动机和人类发展指数。然而,大多数预测器显示出不同的模式,预测一些但不是所有的结果,甚至有相反的效果。为了更好地捕捉这种复杂性,未来的模型应该包括多层次的因素,并考虑与气候相关的认知和行动出现的不同背景(例如,公共与私人)。
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引用次数: 0
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