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Geo-locate project: a novel approach to resolving meteorological station location issues with the assistance of undergraduate students 地理定位计画:大学生协助解决气象站定位问题的新方法
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-07-02 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-157-2019
S. Noone, A. Brody, Sasha Brown, Niamh Cantwell, M. Coleman, Louise Sarsfield Collins, Caoilfhionn D’Arcy, D. Dee, S. Donegan, R. Fealy, Padraig Flattery, R. McGovern, Caspar Menkman, M. Murphy, Christopher Phillips, M. Roche, P. Thorne
Abstract. The Global Land and Marine Observations Database aims to produce acomprehensive land-based meteorological data archive and inventory. Thisrequires the compilation of available information on data from land-basedmeteorological stations from all known available in situ meteorological datarepositories/sources at multiple timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, andmonthly). During this process the service team members have identified thatmany of the data sources contain stations with incorrect locationcoordinates. These stations cannot be included in the processing to beserved via the Copernicus Climate Change Service until the issues aresatisfactorily resolved. Many of these stations are in regions of the worldwhere a sparsity of climate data currently exists, such as Southeast Asiaand South America. As such, resolving these issues would provide importantadditional climate data, but this is a very labour-intensive task.Therefore, we have developed the Geo-locate project – that enrols the help ofundergraduate geography students at Maynooth University, Ireland – to resolvesome of the land-based station geolocation issues. To date, we have run twoGeo-locate projects: the first in the 2017/2018 academic year and the secondin the 2018/2019 academic year. Both iterations have been very successful with1926 of the 2168 total candidate stations ostensibly resolved, which equatesto an 88 % success rate. At the same time, students have gained critical skills thathelped to meet the expected pedagogical outcomes of the second-yearcurriculum, while producing a lasting scientific legacy. We asked the classof 2018/2019 to reflect critically upon the outcomes, and we present the resultsherein; these results provide important feedback on what students felt that theygained from their participation and how we may improve the experience andlearning outcomes in future. We will be continuing to run Geo-locateprojects over the next few years. We encourage other organizations toinvestigate the potential for engaging university students to help resolvesimilar data issues while enriching the student experience and aiding in the delivery of learning outcomes. This paper provides details of the project,and all supporting information such as project guidelines and templates toenable other organizations to instigate similar programmes.
摘要全球陆地和海洋观测数据库旨在编制全面的陆基气象数据档案和清单。这需要在多个时间尺度(例如分日、日和月)汇编来自陆地气象站的现有数据信息,这些数据来自所有已知的现有现场气象数据储存库/来源。在此过程中,服务团队成员发现许多数据源包含位置坐标不正确的站点。在问题得到满意解决之前,这些站点不能被包括在哥白尼气候变化服务的观测过程中。这些站点中有许多位于目前气候数据稀少的地区,如东南亚和南美洲。因此,解决这些问题将提供重要的额外气候数据,但这是一项非常劳动密集型的任务。因此,我们开发了地理定位项目——在爱尔兰梅努斯大学地理专业本科生的帮助下——来解决一些陆基站点的地理定位问题。到目前为止,我们已经运行了两个地理定位项目:第一个在2017/2018学年,第二个在2018/2019学年。两次迭代都非常成功,表面上解决了2168个候选站中的1926个,相当于88%的成功率。与此同时,学生们获得了关键的技能,这些技能有助于满足第二年课程的预期教学成果,同时产生持久的科学遗产。我们要求2018/2019届的学生批判性地反思结果,并在这里展示结果;这些结果提供了重要的反馈,告诉学生们他们从参与中获得了什么,以及我们如何在未来改善体验和学习成果。在接下来的几年里,我们将继续运行地理定位项目。我们鼓励其他组织调查吸引大学生帮助解决类似数据问题的潜力,同时丰富学生的经验,帮助交付学习成果。本文提供了项目的详细信息,以及所有支持信息,如项目指南和模板,以使其他组织能够发起类似的计划。
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引用次数: 1
Interdisciplinary pressure cooker: environmental risk communication skills for the next generation 跨学科高压锅:下一代环境风险沟通技巧
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-06-03 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-173-2019
L. Cumiskey, Matthew Lickiss, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Javed Ali
Abstract. This article presents a “pressure cooker” approach for buildinginterdisciplinary risk communication capacity in young professionals viaan intensive 24 h workshop. The event successfully brought together 35participants from around the world to work on real-world environmentalhazard/risk communication challenges for two areas in Mexico. Participantsworked in interdisciplinary teams, following a three-step iterative process,with support from mentors and a range of specialists to develop riskcommunication outputs. Feedback surveys indicate that the workshop met itsgoal of improving participants' knowledge of risk communication andinterdisciplinary working. The workshop resulted in an interdisciplinarycommunity of researchers and practitioners, including organisers,participants and supporting specialists, which was still active after the event. It isrecommended that such interdisciplinary workshops are used to build the capacityto tackle complex challenges, such as risk communication, but they requirefurther testing. Insights into the design and implementation of suchinterdisciplinary workshops are given (e.g. team design, use of preparatorymaterials, and engagement of specialists and local stakeholders arepresented), including critiques of challenges raised by the workshopparticipants. Guidance is provided to those interested in applying apressure cooker approach and further adaptations of the approach arewelcomed.
摘要本文提出了一种“高压锅”方法,通过24小时密集的研讨会来建立年轻专业人员的跨学科风险沟通能力。该活动成功地将来自世界各地的35名参与者聚集在一起,共同探讨墨西哥两个地区的现实环境危害/风险沟通挑战。参与者在跨学科团队中工作,遵循三步迭代过程,在导师和一系列专家的支持下开发风险沟通输出。反馈调查表明,研讨会达到了提高参与者风险沟通和跨学科工作知识的目标。研讨会形成了一个跨学科的研究人员和实践者社区,包括组织者、参与者和支持专家,该社区在活动结束后仍然活跃。建议使用这样的跨学科研讨会来建立应对复杂挑战的能力,例如风险沟通,但是它们需要进一步的测试。提供了对此类跨学科研讨会的设计和实施的见解(例如,团队设计,准备材料的使用,专家和代表的当地利益相关者的参与),包括对研讨会参与者提出的挑战的批评。为那些有兴趣应用高压锅方法的人提供指导,并欢迎进一步调整该方法。
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引用次数: 2
Communicating climate change in a “post-factual” society: lessons learned from the Pole to Paris campaign 在“后事实”社会中沟通气候变化:从极地到巴黎运动的经验教训
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-05-29 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-83-2019
E. M. Knudsen, Oria J. de Bolsée
Abstract. The politicization of and societal debate on climatechange science have increased over the last decades. Here, the authors arguethat the role of climate scientists in our society needs to adapt inaccordance with this development. We share our experiences from theawareness campaign Pole to Paris, which engaged non-academic audiences onclimate change issues on the roads from the polar regions to Paris andthrough conventional and social media. By running and cycling across a thirdof the globe, the scientists behind the initiative established connectionson the audiences' terms. Propitiously for other outreach efforts, theexertions were not in themselves the most attractive; among our social mediafollowers, the messages of climate change science and action were morefavourable, as measured by video statistics and a follower survey.Communicating climate action in itself challenges our positions asscientists, and here we discuss the impact such messages have on ourcredibility as researchers. Based on these reflections, as well as thosefrom other science communication initiatives, we suggest a way forward forclimate scientists in the post-factual society, who should be better trainedin interaction with non-academic audiences and pseudoscepticism.
摘要在过去的几十年里,气候变化科学的政治化和社会辩论有所增加。在这里,作者认为,气候科学家在我们社会中的角色需要适应这种发展。我们分享了从极地到巴黎的意识运动的经验,该运动在从极地到巴黎的道路上通过传统和社交媒体吸引了非学术观众对气候变化问题的关注。通过跑步和骑自行车穿越三分之一的地球,该倡议背后的科学家们与观众建立了联系。好在这些努力本身并不怎么吸引人;从视频统计数据和一项关注者调查来看,在我们的社交媒体关注者中,气候变化科学和行动的信息更受欢迎。传达气候行动本身就挑战了我们科学家的立场,在这里我们讨论这些信息对我们作为研究人员的可信度的影响。基于这些反思,以及来自其他科学传播计划的反思,我们为后事实社会的气候科学家提出了一条前进的道路,他们应该接受更好的培训,与非学术受众和伪怀疑主义进行互动。
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引用次数: 2
Seismic risk: the biases of earthquake media coverage 地震风险:地震媒体报道的偏见
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-04-17 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-125-2019
M. Devès, Marion Le Texier, Hugues Pécout, C. Grasland
Abstract. The capacity of individuals to cope with threatening situations dependsdirectly on their capacity to anticipate what will come next. The mediashould play a key role in that respect, but an extensive analysis ofearthquake media coverage by the international news reveals systematicbiases. Exploring a corpus of 320 888 news articles published by 32worldwide newspapers in 2015 in English, Spanish or French, we found thatthe press covers a very small number of events: 71 % of the news aboutseismic events was dedicated to only 3 earthquakes (among the 1559magnitude 5+ events). A combination of frequency and content analysis reveals atypical framing of the “earthquake news”. Except for the “Nepal quake”, theduration of the coverage is usually very short. Thus, the news tends to focuson short-term issues: the event magnitude, tsunami alerts, human losses,material damage and rescue operations. Longer-term issues linked to therecovery, restoration, reconstruction, mitigation and prevention are barelyaddressed. Preventive safety measures are almost never mentioned. The newson impacts shows a peculiar appetency for death counts, material damageestimates and sensationalism. News on the response tends to emphasize therole played by the international community in helping the “poor andvulnerable”. The scientific content of the coverage is often restricted tomentions of the magnitude, with the concept of the seismic intensity beinglargely ignored. The notion of the “seismic crisis” also seems unclear, withaftershocks sometimes being treated as isolated events. Secondary hazardsare barely mentioned, except in the case of tsunami alerts. Together, thesebiases contribute to fatalistic judgments that damage cannot be prevented.If scientific messages are to be communicated, they should be broadcast afew hours after an event. Why not take the opportunity to familiarizepeople with the real timeline of seismic disasters?
摘要个人应对危险情况的能力直接取决于他们预测接下来会发生什么的能力。媒体应该在这方面发挥关键作用,但对国际新闻媒体对地震报道的广泛分析显示出系统性偏见。我们研究了2015年全球32家报纸以英语、西班牙语或法语发表的320888篇新闻文章的语料库,发现媒体报道的事件非常少:71%关于地震事件的新闻只报道了3次地震(在1559次5级以上地震中)。结合频率和内容分析,揭示了“地震新闻”的非典型框架。除了“尼泊尔地震”,报道的持续时间通常很短。因此,新闻往往侧重于短期问题:事件规模、海啸警报、人员损失、物质损失和救援行动。与恢复、恢复、重建、缓解和预防有关的长期问题几乎没有得到解决。预防性安全措施几乎从未被提及。新闻冲击显示出对死亡人数、物质损失估计和轰动效应的特殊偏好。有关应对措施的新闻往往强调国际社会在帮助“穷人和弱势群体”方面所发挥的作用。报道的科学内容往往仅限于提及震级,而地震烈度的概念在很大程度上被忽略。“地震危机”的概念似乎也不明确,余震有时被视为孤立事件。除了海啸警报外,次要危害几乎没有被提及。这些偏见加在一起,导致了损害无法预防的宿命论判断。如果要传播科学信息,就应该在事件发生后几个小时进行广播。为什么不借此机会让人们熟悉一下地震灾害的真实时间线呢?
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引用次数: 6
Taking a Breath of the Wild: are geoscientists more effective than non-geoscientists in determining whether video game world landscapes are realistic? 《荒野之息》:在判断电子游戏世界景观是否真实方面,地球科学家是否比非地球科学家更有效?
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-03-15 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-117-2019
R. Hut, C. Albers, S. Illingworth, Chris Skinner
Abstract. From the wilderness of Hyrule, the continent of Tamriel, and the geographies of Middle Earth, players of video games are exposed to wondrous, fantastic, but ultimately fake, landscapes. Given the time people may spend in these worlds compared to the time they spend being trained in geoscience, we wondered whether expert geoscientists would differ from non-geoscientists in whether they judge the landscapes in these video games to be “realistic”. Since video games present a great opportunity for tangential learning, it would be a missed opportunity if it turns out that features obviously fake to geoscientists are perceived as plausible by non-geoscientists. To satisfy our curiosity and answer this question, we conducted a survey where we asked people to judge both photos from real landscapes as well as screenshots from the recent The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild video game on how likely they thought the features in the picture were to exist in the real world. Since game world screenshots are easily identified based on their rendered, pixelated nature, we pre-processed all pictures with an artistic “Van Gogh” filter that removed the rendered nature but retained the dominant landscape features. We found that there is a small but significant difference between geoscientists and non-geoscientists, with geoscientists being slightly better at judging which pictures are from the real world versus from the video game world. While significant, the effect is small enough to conclude that fantastical worlds in video games can be used for tangential learning on geoscientific subjects.
摘要从海拉尔的荒野,到塔姆瑞尔的大陆,再到中土世界的地理位置,电子游戏的玩家可以接触到奇妙的、梦幻的、但最终是虚假的风景。考虑到人们可能花在这些世界上的时间与他们花在地球科学培训上的时间相比,我们想知道专家地球科学家是否会在判断这些电子游戏中的景观是否“真实”方面与非地球科学家有所不同。因为电子游戏提供了一个很好的学习机会,如果地球科学家认为是假的特征被非地球科学家认为是可信的,那将是一个错失的机会。为了满足我们的好奇心并回答这个问题,我们进行了一项调查,我们要求人们根据真实风景的照片和最近的塞尔达传说:荒野之息电子游戏的截图来判断他们认为照片中的特征在现实世界中存在的可能性有多大。由于游戏世界截图很容易根据其渲染和像素化的性质来识别,所以我们使用艺术“梵高”过滤器对所有图片进行预处理,去除渲染性质,但保留主要的景观特征。我们发现,地球科学家和非地球科学家之间存在着微小但显著的差异,地球科学家在判断哪些图片来自现实世界,哪些图片来自电子游戏世界方面稍好一些。虽然这种影响很显著,但它的影响很小,不足以得出结论,即电子游戏中的幻想世界可以用于地球科学学科的间接学习。
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引用次数: 7
The takeover of science communication: how science lost its leading role in the public discourse on carbon capture and storage research in daily newspapers in Germany 科学传播的接管:科学是如何在德国日报上关于碳捕获和封存研究的公共话语中失去主导地位的
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-03-06 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-69-2019
S. Schneider
Abstract. CCS (carbon capture and storage) is an important issue within the context ofclimate-change mitigation options and has played a major role in the agendasof scientists, researchers, and engineers. While media representations of CCSin Germany from 2004 to 2014 demonstrated the significant mediatization ofthe topic, this cannot be ascribed to science. Instead, CCS media coverage inGermany has been dominated by other stakeholder groups. While CCS is linkedto various industry sectors, such as cement and steel production, the Germandebate has dominantly focussed on the coal and energy branches. This studylooks at the role of science and science public relations (PR) within theGerman public debate by analysing the media coverage of CCS in dailynewspapers from 2004 to 2014. If science wishes to remain proactive withinscience communication, new approaches for future science PR have to bededuced to strengthen, once again, the role of science communication. Amongthese approaches, it is important to pursue a more differentiatedunderstanding of target audiences and regional concerns. Science PR has toaccept that science itself is no longer the only stakeholder and actor withinscience communication.
摘要CCS(碳捕获与封存)是减缓气候变化方案背景下的一个重要问题,在科学家、研究人员和工程师的议程中发挥了重要作用。虽然从2004年到2014年,德国媒体对ccn的报道显示了该话题的显著媒介化,但这不能归因于科学。相反,德国的CCS媒体报道一直由其他利益相关者团体主导。虽然CCS与水泥和钢铁生产等多个行业相关,但德国的辩论主要集中在煤炭和能源领域。本研究通过分析2004年至2014年德国日报对CCS的媒体报道,探讨了科学和科学公共关系(PR)在德国公共辩论中的作用。如果科学希望在科学传播中保持主动性,就必须推导出未来科学公关的新方法,以再次加强科学传播的作用。在这些方法中,重要的是追求对目标受众和区域关切的更有区别的理解。科学公关必须承认,科学本身不再是科学传播中唯一的利益相关者和行动者。
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引用次数: 5
Identifying and improving AGU collaborations using network analysis and scientometrics 利用网络分析和科学计量学识别和改进AGU合作
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-02-20 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-55-2019
T. Narock, S. Hasnain, Ronie Stephan
Abstract. The American Geophysical Union (AGU) is an Earth and space scienceprofessional society based in the United States. Research conducted by AGUmembers ranges from the Earth's deep interior to the outer planets of oursolar system. However, little research exists on the AGU meeting itself. Inthis work, we apply network analysis and scientometrics to 17 years of AGUFall Meetings. We are interested in the AGU network structure and what itsproperties can tell us about how the procedures of the AGU Fall Meeting canbe enhanced to facilitate better scientific communication and collaboration.We quantify several network properties and illustrate how this type ofanalysis can enhance meeting planning and layout. We conclude with practicalstrategies for the AGU Program Committee.
摘要美国地球物理联合会(AGU)是一个总部设在美国的地球和空间科学专业协会。agn成员进行的研究范围从地球深处的内部到我们太阳系的外部行星。然而,关于AGU会议本身的研究却很少。在这项工作中,我们将网络分析和科学计量学应用于17年的AGUFall会议。我们感兴趣的是AGU的网络结构,以及它的特性可以告诉我们如何改进AGU秋季会议的程序,以促进更好的科学交流和合作。我们量化了几个网络属性,并说明了这种类型的分析如何增强会议计划和布局。最后,我们为AGU项目委员会提出了一些实用的策略。
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引用次数: 2
Building bridges between experts and the public: a comparison of two-way communication formats for flooding and air pollution risk 搭建专家与公众之间的桥梁:洪水和空气污染风险双向沟通形式的比较
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-24 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-39-2019
Maria Loroño-Leturiondo, P. O'hare, S. Cook, S. Hoon, S. Illingworth
Abstract. Urban centres worldwide are adversely affected by flooding and air pollution.Better-prepared citizens are crucial to limiting the impacts of thesehazards, and both lay knowledge and personal experiences are important incomplementing and challenging expert opinion. For the first time, this studyoffers a critical comparison of how different two-way communication formatshave been used worldwide between experts and the public in relation toflooding and air pollution risk. Through a systematic review, we analysesocial media, educational programmes, serious games, citizen science, andforums in terms of their effectiveness in respect of dealing with incidents,raising awareness, and promoting knowledge exchange in the context offlooding and air pollution risk. We find that there is neither aone-size-fits-all nor superior format of communication. No single format iseffective in fulfilling all three communication purposes. All five formatsanalysed appear to be successful under different circumstances and are neversuitable for all segments of the population. Communication between experts andthe public is difficult and full of tensions; information alone is notenough. Our study shows different ways of incorporating strategies to buildtrust between experts and the public and make communication more fun andaccessible, breaking down hierarchies and creating safe spaces forco-creation where everyone feels empowered to participate and everyone benefits.
摘要世界各地的城市中心都受到洪水和空气污染的不利影响。做好充分准备的公民对于限制这些危害的影响至关重要,外行知识和个人经验都很重要,无法补充和挑战专家意见。这项研究首次对专家和公众在洪水和空气污染风险方面使用的不同双向通信格式进行了批判性比较。透过系统检讨,我们分析了社会媒体、教育节目、严肃游戏、公民科学和论坛在处理洪水和空气污染风险的事件、提高认识和促进知识交流方面的成效。我们发现,既不存在放之四海而皆准的沟通方式,也不存在更好的沟通方式。没有一种格式能有效地满足这三个沟通目的。所分析的所有五种形式在不同的情况下似乎都是成功的,但并不适合所有人群。专家与公众之间的沟通困难且充满紧张;只有信息是不够的。我们的研究展示了不同的整合策略,以建立专家和公众之间的信任,使沟通更有趣,更容易,打破等级制度,为共同创造创造安全的空间,让每个人都感到有权参与,每个人都受益。
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引用次数: 6
Assessing the impact of outreach strategies in cities coping with climate risks 评估外联战略对应对气候风险的城市的影响
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-21 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-25-2019
Rosa Vicari, I. Tchiguirinskaia, D. Schertzer
Abstract. The resilience of our cities to weather extremes relies both onphysical environmental factors and on socio-economic factors. The latterincludes communication processes among the members of an urban community.This paper presents a study that aims at appraising how public outreachcampaigns influence urban resilience. According to this research, seizing theadded value of science outreach efforts calls for an assessment method thattakes into consideration the interactions between communication processes andother urban resilience drivers. The paper begins by presenting examples ofmethods to assess urban resilience to weather extremes. We then propose anapproach to comprehend the impact of communication activities on resiliencein the context of urban flood resilience strategies. We use five guidingcriteria to define “resilience communication indicators” and we present twocommunication assessment experiments based on these criteria. Theseexperiments were undertaken to assess communication activities addressed tonon-specialist audiences and tailored for a flood resilience project in theParis region. Different research methods were tested through theseexperiments, with the goal of comprehending their strengths and weaknesses inthe framework of urban resilience strategies.
摘要城市抵御极端天气的能力既取决于自然环境因素,也取决于社会经济因素。后者包括城市社区成员之间的沟通过程。本文提出了一项旨在评估公共宣传活动如何影响城市韧性的研究。根据这项研究,抓住科学推广工作的附加价值,需要一种考虑传播过程和其他城市弹性驱动因素之间相互作用的评估方法。本文首先介绍了评估城市应对极端天气能力的方法实例。然后,我们提出了一种方法来理解在城市抗洪策略背景下传播活动对抗洪能力的影响。我们用五个指导标准定义了“弹性沟通指标”,并在此基础上进行了两个沟通评估实验。这些实验是为了评估针对非专业受众的传播活动,并为巴黎地区的一个抗洪项目量身定制。通过这些实验测试了不同的研究方法,目的是了解它们在城市弹性战略框架下的优势和劣势。
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引用次数: 2
Telling the boiling frog what he needs to know: why climate change risks should be plotted as probability over time 告诉沸腾的青蛙他需要知道的:为什么气候变化的风险应该被绘制成随时间变化的概率
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-18 DOI: 10.5194/GC-2-95-2019
S. Sharpe
Abstract. Humanity's situation with respect to climate change issometimes compared to that of a frog in a slowly boiling pot of water,meaning that change will happen too gradually for us to appreciate thelikelihood of catastrophe and act before it is too late. I argue that thescientific community is not yet telling the boiling frog what he needs toknow. I use a review of the figures included in two reports of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to show that much of the climatescience communicated to policymakers is presented in the form of projectionsof what is most likely to occur, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: in 5 min time, the water you are sitting in will be 2 ∘C warmer). Iargue from first principles that a more appropriate means of assessing andcommunicating the risks of climate change would be to produce assessments ofthe likelihood of crossing non-arbitrary thresholds of impact, as a functionof time (equivalent to the following statement: the probability of you being boiled to death willbe 1 % in 5 min time, rising to 100 % in 20 min time ifyou do not jump out of the pot). This would be consistent with approaches torisk assessment in fields such as insurance, engineering, and health andsafety. Importantly, it would ensure that decision makers are informed of thebiggest risks and hence of the strongest reasons to act. I suggest ways inwhich the science community could contribute to promoting this approach,taking into account its inherent need for cross-disciplinary research andfor engagement with decision makers before the research is conductedinstead of afterwards.
摘要人类在气候变化方面的处境有时被比作一只青蛙在慢慢沸腾的水锅里,这意味着变化将发生得太缓慢,以至于我们无法意识到灾难的可能性,并在为时已晚之前采取行动。我认为科学界还没有告诉沸腾的青蛙他需要知道什么。我对政府间气候变化专门委员会的两份报告中的数据进行了回顾,发现传达给政策制定者的大部分气候科学都是以预测最可能发生的事情的形式呈现的,作为时间的函数(相当于下面的陈述:在5分钟内,你坐在里面的水会变暖2°C)。从第一原则出发,我认为评估和传达气候变化风险的更合适的方法是对跨越非任意影响阈值的可能性进行评估,作为时间的函数(相当于以下陈述:你被煮死的概率将在5分钟内为1%,如果你不跳出锅里,在20分钟内上升到100%)。这与保险、工程、健康和安全等领域的风险评估方法是一致的。重要的是,它将确保决策者了解最大的风险,从而了解采取行动的最有力理由。我建议科学界可以为促进这种方法做出贡献的方法,考虑到它对跨学科研究的内在需求,以及在研究进行之前而不是之后与决策者接触的需求。
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引用次数: 5
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Geoscience Communication
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