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Par Munis: Sub-Par Performance 市政债券:低于标准的表现
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.3905/JFI.2021.1.119
A. Kalotay, R. Davidson
It is well recognized that institutional municipal portfolio managers prefer premium bonds to those selling near par. This article shows that such aversion to par bonds is justified because they are expected to underperform comparable premium or discount bonds in the near term. The extent of the underperformance depends on the shape of the yield curve and is positively correlated with the level of expected interest rate volatility. The underperformance is attributable to tax considerations. When an investor purchases a municipal bond (muni) below par, the resulting gain is taxed at maturity, and the price is depressed by the present value of the tax. This tax effect amplifies the interest rate sensitivity of discount munis. Munis selling near par are also negatively convex; the potential decline attributable to higher interest rates exceeds the increase stemming from commensurately lower rates. The underperformance of near-par munis relative to those selling at a high premium (or at a deep discount) arises from the resulting combination of extended duration and negative convexity. The changing value of tax liabilities creates a unique challenge in determining interest rate sensitivity and expected return—which conventional analytics fail to recognize. The tax-neutral analytics used in this article not only incorporate the value of future tax costs but also provide an accurate method for predicting muni price changes and investment returns. Key Findings ▪ Because of their negative convexity, municipal bonds (munis) selling near par perform poorly relative to comparable premium and discount bonds. Negative convexity arises from the so-called de minimis tax effect, which further depresses the price once it falls below par. ▪ The expected underperformance depends on the shape of the yield curve and the volatility of the interest rates. Portfolio managers whose performance is based on market prices should avoid par munis in favor of those selling at a high premium. ▪ Tax-neutral option-adjusted spread (OAS) technology is essential for the proper analysis of near-par munis; conventional OAS underestimates their duration and completely misses their negative convexity.
众所周知,机构市政投资组合经理更喜欢溢价债券,而不是那些接近票面价值的债券。本文表明,这种对票面价值债券的厌恶是合理的,因为他们预计在短期内表现不如可比的溢价或折扣债券。表现不佳的程度取决于收益率曲线的形状,并与预期利率波动水平呈正相关。业绩不佳是由于税收方面的考虑。当投资者以低于票面价值的价格购买市政债券(muni)时,所产生的收益在到期时要纳税,而价格则受到税收现值的抑制。这种税收效应放大了贴现市政债券的利率敏感性。在票面价附近出售的市政债券也是负凸的;利率上升带来的潜在下降超过了相应的低利率带来的增长。与那些以高溢价(或大幅折价)出售的市政债券相比,接近面值的市政债券表现不佳,是由于期限延长和负凸性的共同作用。纳税负债价值的变化在确定利率敏感性和预期回报方面带来了独特的挑战,这是传统分析无法认识到的。本文中使用的税收中性分析不仅包含了未来税收成本的价值,而且还提供了预测市政债券价格变化和投资回报的准确方法。主要发现▪由于其负凸性,与同类溢价和折扣债券相比,接近票面价格出售的市政债券(munis)表现不佳。负凸性源于所谓的“最小税收效应”,一旦价格低于票面价格,这种效应会进一步压低价格。预期的表现不佳取决于收益率曲线的形状和利率的波动性。那些业绩基于市场价格的投资组合经理应该避开市政债券,而选择那些以高溢价卖出的投资组合。▪税收中立的期权调整价差(OAS)技术对于正确分析接近票面价值的市政债券至关重要;传统的OAS低估了它们的持续时间,完全忽略了它们的负凸性。
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引用次数: 0
A Bird’s-Eye View of the US Credit Rating Industry 美国信用评级行业概览
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.3905/JFI.2021.1.120
M. Livingston, Gina Nicolosi, Lei Zhou
Using regulatory disclosures of rating performance statistics, this article provides a comprehensive survey of the US credit rating industry. First, the industry competitive landscape is examined, demonstrating a general increase in competition since 2006. Second, the article documents substantial rating accuracy variations across asset classes but no significant rating quality disparities among credit rating agencies (CRAs). In addition, an investor-paid CRA does not distinguish itself from issuer-paid CRAs in rating quality. Third, a negative correlation is found between CRA market shares and rating accuracy, highlighting the importance of increasing industry competition. Key Findings ▪ The US credit rating industry has become more competitive since 2006. ▪ There is negative correlation between credit rating agency market shares and rating accuracy. ▪ There are substantial rating accuracy variations among different asset classes.
本文利用评级绩效统计数据的监管披露,对美国信用评级行业进行了全面调查。首先,对行业竞争格局进行了考察,表明自2006年以来竞争普遍加剧。其次,文章记录了不同资产类别的评级准确性差异很大,但信用评级机构之间的评级质量没有显著差异。此外,投资者付费CRA在评级质量上与发行人付费CRA没有区别。第三,CRA市场份额与评级准确性呈负相关,凸显了行业竞争加剧的重要性。关键发现▪ 自2006年以来,美国信用评级行业的竞争更加激烈。▪ 信用评级机构的市场份额与评级准确性呈负相关。▪ 不同资产类别之间的评级准确性差异很大。
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引用次数: 0
Testing the Forecasting Ability of Multi-Factor Models on Non-US Interbank Rates 检验多因素模型对非美国银行间利率的预测能力
Pub Date : 2021-07-20 DOI: 10.3905/JFI.2021.1.118
D. Tunaru, F. Fabozzi, Frank J. Fabozzi
This article examines the forecasting performance of continuous-time multi-factor models, in comparison with other parsimonious models, for the term structure of interbank rates in the UK, Europe, and Japan. The article employs two general dynamic frameworks with different factor structures: the generalized Chan-Karolyi-Longstaff-Sanders family of models and the arbitrage-free dynamic Nelson-Siegel family of models. Applying a battery of accuracy measures and a range of formal tests of forecasting superiority, this research provides evidence that extended multi-factor models demonstrate good out-of-sample forecasting performance for the short segment of the yield curve. However, for the euro and in part for the yen, random walk forecasts consistently pass various tests, indicating a higher level of market efficiency compared to the pound sterling interbank market. Key Findings ▪ For the term structure of interbank rates in the UK, Europe, and Japan, more complex continuous-time models that include more factors are superior in terms of predictive power to models with less factors or discrete-time models. ▪ Based on a battery of accuracy tests and a range of formal tests, extended multi-factor models demonstrate good out-of-sample forecasting performance for the short segment of the yield curve. ▪ For the euro and in part for the yen, random walk forecasts consistently pass various tests, indicating a higher level of market efficiency compared to the pound sterling interbank market.
与其他简约模型相比,本文考察了连续时间多因素模型对英国、欧洲和日本银行间利率期限结构的预测性能。本文采用了两个具有不同因子结构的一般动力学框架:广义Chan Karolyi Longstaff Sanders模型族和无套利动态Nelson Siegel模型族。本研究应用了一系列精度测量和一系列预测优越性的正式测试,证明扩展的多因素模型对收益率曲线的短段表现出良好的样本外预测性能。然而,对于欧元和部分日元,随机游走预测始终通过各种测试,表明与英镑银行间市场相比,市场效率更高。关键发现▪ 对于英国、欧洲和日本的银行间利率期限结构,包含更多因素的更复杂的连续时间模型在预测能力方面优于包含较少因素的模型或离散时间模型。▪ 基于一系列精度测试和一系列形式测试,扩展的多因素模型对收益率曲线的短段表现出良好的样本外预测性能。▪ 对于欧元和部分日元,随机游走预测始终通过各种测试,表明与英镑银行间市场相比,市场效率更高。
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引用次数: 0
How a New Bond Issuance Affects the Liquidity of a Bond Portfolio 新债券发行如何影响债券组合的流动性
Pub Date : 2021-07-14 DOI: 10.3905/JFI.2021.1.117
Fan Chen, Duane R. Stock
Previous research describing corporate bond liquidity tends to focus on the effects on liquidity of factors such as bond age, bond credit risk, size of issuance, and regulation of trading. The article notes that many firms issue bonds when previous bonds are still outstanding and also examines how the new bond issuance affects the liquidity of the preexisting corporate bonds. One might expect the liquidity of the preexisting bonds to improve because of the greater quantity of very similar bonds outstanding or the increase in public information about the firm. However, investment bankers may aggressively market the new issuance, which may diminish the liquidity of the preexisting bonds. The article concludes that the former effect dominates and that the improvement in liquidity is more significant when newly issued bonds offer a longer maturity than preexisting bonds. Key Findings ▪ The liquidity of preexisting bonds tends to increase when a new bond issuance by the firm becomes available. ▪ The increase in liquidity as a result of a new bond issuance tends to be stronger when its maturity is longer relative to that of preexisting bonds. ▪ When the liquidity of preexisting bonds increases in response to a new issuance, the effect is temporary and diminishes over time.
以往描述公司债券流动性的研究往往侧重于债券年龄、债券信用风险、发行规模和交易监管等因素对流动性的影响。文章指出,许多公司在以前的债券仍然未偿付的情况下发行债券,并研究了新债券的发行如何影响现有公司债券的流动性。人们可能会预期,由于发行的非常相似的债券数量增加或公司公开信息的增加,现有债券的流动性会有所改善。然而,投资银行家可能会积极推销新发行的债券,这可能会减少现有债券的流动性。文章得出结论,前者的影响占主导地位,当新发行的债券比现有债券的到期日更长时,流动性的改善更为显著。关键发现▪ 当公司发行新债券时,原有债券的流动性往往会增加。▪ 当新债券发行的到期日比现有债券的到期日更长时,流动性的增加往往会更强。▪ 当已有债券的流动性因新发行而增加时,这种影响是暂时的,并随着时间的推移而减弱。
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引用次数: 0
Credit Risk in a Pandemic 流行病中的信用风险
Pub Date : 2021-07-13 DOI: 10.3905/JFI.2021.1.116
H. Byström
Using different measures of how the Covid-19 pandemic progresses, the article confirms that the level of credit risk among US blue chip companies increases in tandem with the spread of the Covid-19 virus. The credit risk escalates dramatically during the pandemic but is still short of the levels seen during the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis. In addition, the weekly ups and downs in credit risk and virus impact are significantly positively correlated throughout the pandemic. Furthermore, Basel II capital requirements rise drastically when the pandemic strikes but, again, not to the levels in evidence during the Global Financial Crisis. Key Findings ▪ Two separate markets, the equity market and the credit (derivatives) market, are used to assess the level of credit risk. The level of credit risk among US blue chip companies increases in tandem with the spread of the Covid-19 virus. ▪ Using different measures of how the Covid-19 pandemic progresses, the weekly ups and downs in credit risk and virus impact are significantly positively correlated throughout the pandemic. ▪ The Basel II capital requirements increase significantly when the pandemic strikes but not to the levels seen during the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis.
文章使用不同的方法来衡量Covid-19大流行的进展情况,证实了美国蓝筹公司的信用风险水平随着Covid-19病毒的传播而上升。在大流行期间,信贷风险急剧上升,但仍低于2008-09年全球金融危机期间的水平。此外,在整个大流行期间,每周信贷风险的起伏与病毒影响呈显著正相关。此外,巴塞尔协议II的资本要求在大流行来袭时大幅提高,但同样没有达到全球金融危机期间的水平。▪两个独立的市场,股票市场和信用(衍生品)市场,被用来评估信用风险水平。随着新冠肺炎疫情的扩散,美国蓝筹企业的信用风险水平也在上升。▪使用不同的方法来衡量Covid-19大流行的进展情况,在整个大流行期间,每周信贷风险的起伏与病毒影响呈显著正相关。▪新巴塞尔协议的资本要求在疫情爆发时大幅提高,但没有达到2008-09年全球金融危机期间的水平。
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引用次数: 2
Editor’s Letter 编者的信
Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.3905/jfi.2021.31.1.001
Stanley J. Kon
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引用次数: 0
A Key Rate Approach to Replicating Annuities with US Treasury Funds 用美国国债基金复制年金的关键利率方法
Pub Date : 2021-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3767632
Joseph R. Prendergast
Prendergast (2021) develops a methodology that enables retail investors to structure annuities using commonly available US Treasury Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). This article extends that methodology through the use of key rate durations. Back tests and stress tests show that the use of key rate durations substantially enhances the ability of the portfolio of ETFs to replicate an annuity in an environment where yield curves undergo a variety of slope and curvature changes over time. TOPICS: Fixed income and structured finance, exchange-traded funds and applications, quantitative methods, statistical methods Key Findings ▪ Relative to using single durations, the use of key rate durations dramatically improves the ability of an annuity replicating portfolio to provide the desired annuity payments while achieving a zero-ending balance. ▪ This article provides a means for retail investors, or their advisors, to design an annuity that is robust to interest rate changes without paying sizable fees to life insurance companies and other annuity providers.
Prendergast(2021)开发了一种方法,使散户投资者能够使用常见的美国国债交易所交易基金(ETF)构建年金。本文通过使用关键费率持续时间来扩展该方法。回溯测试和压力测试表明,在收益率曲线随时间发生各种斜率和曲率变化的环境中,关键利率持续时间的使用大大提高了ETF投资组合复制年金的能力。主题:固定收益和结构性金融,交易所交易基金及其应用,量化方法,统计方法关键发现▪ 相对于使用单一期限,关键利率期限的使用显著提高了年金复制投资组合提供所需年金支付的能力,同时实现了零期末余额。▪ 这篇文章为散户投资者或他们的顾问提供了一种方法,可以设计一种对利率变化稳健的年金,而无需向人寿保险公司和其他年金提供商支付可观的费用。
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引用次数: 0
Editor’s Letter 编辑的信
Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.3905/jfi.2020.30.3.001
Stanley J. Kon
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Future Yields and Risk Premia: The Blue-Dot Affine Model 预测未来收益和风险溢价:蓝点仿射模型
Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.3905/jfi.2020.1.099
R. Rebonato, R. Ronzani
The authors present a new affine model that can predict future yields and risk premia in the monetary conditions of the past decade more convincingly than current state-of-the-art statistical models. Despite making use of very different sources of information, it produces remarkably similar changes in risk premia as the most popular statistical return-predicting factors. However, it predicts very different—and, they argue, more believable—levels for risk premia and expectations. The model is extremely parsimonious, is financially motivated, fits market yields accurately with very few interpretable parameters, and naturally recovers important qualitative features of the joint ℙ and ℚ dynamics of yields. TOPICS: Analysis of individual factors/risk premia, factor-based models, statistical methods Key Findings • A new affine model of the term structure is shown to give more plausible estimates of risk premia and expectations than the current state-of-the-art yield curve statistical models. • The model uses information from the Fed expectations of the future federal funds rate. • The model is financially justifiable, very parsimonious, and fits observed market yields very well.
作者提出了一个新的仿射模型,它可以预测过去十年货币条件下的未来收益率和风险溢价,比目前最先进的统计模型更有说服力。尽管使用了非常不同的信息来源,但它在风险溢价方面产生的变化与最流行的统计回报预测因素非常相似。然而,它预测的风险溢价和预期水平非常不同,而且他们认为更可信。该模型非常简洁,具有财务动机,可以用很少的可解释参数准确地拟合市场收益率,并且自然地恢复收益率的联合动态的重要定性特征。主题:个体因素/风险溢价分析,基于因素的模型,统计方法主要发现•与当前最先进的收益率曲线统计模型相比,一个新的期限结构仿射模型显示出更合理的风险溢价和预期估计。•该模型使用的信息来自美联储对未来联邦基金利率的预期。•该模型在财务上是合理的,非常节俭,并且非常适合观察到的市场收益率。
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引用次数: 1
Performance Measurement in the Life Insurance Industry: An Asset-Liability Perspective 寿险行业绩效评估:资产负债视角
Pub Date : 2020-07-29 DOI: 10.3905/JFI.2020.1.102
Alexander Braun, Florian Schreiber
Established risk-adjusted investment performance measures such as the Sharpe Ratio, the Sortino Ratio, or the Calmar Ratio have been developed with an exclusive focus on the mutual and hedge fund industries. Consequently, they are less suited for liability-driven investors such as life insurance companies, whose portfolio choice is materially affected by the substantial interest rate sensitivity of their long-term contractual obligations. In order to tackle this limitation, we propose an Asset-Liability Sharpe Ratio, which is theoretically motivated, easy to estimate, incentive compatible, and conveys information that is not included in existing measures. TOPICS: Performance measurement, risk management Key Findings • Established risk-adjusted investment performance measures such as the Sharpe Ratio, the Sortino Ratio, or the Calmar Ratio have been developed with an exclusive focus on the mutual and hedge fund industries. • Consequently, they are less suited for liability-driven investors such as life insurance companies, whose portfolio choice is materially affected by the substantial interest rate sensitivity of their long-term contractual obligations. • In order to tackle this limitation, we propose an Asset-Liability Sharpe Ratio, which is theoretically motivated, easy to estimate, incentive compatible, and conveys information that is not included in existing measures.
已建立的风险调整投资绩效指标,如夏普比率、索蒂诺比率或卡尔马比率,都是专门针对共同基金和对冲基金行业开发的。因此,它们不太适合责任驱动型投资者,如人寿保险公司,这些投资者的投资组合选择受到其长期合同义务的重大利率敏感性的重大影响。为了解决这一限制,我们提出了一个资产负债夏普比率,它在理论上是有动机的,易于估计,激励相容,并传达了现有措施中未包含的信息。•已建立的风险调整投资绩效指标,如夏普比率、索蒂诺比率或卡尔马比率,已开发出专门针对共同基金和对冲基金行业的指标。•因此,它们不太适合责任驱动型投资者,如人寿保险公司,其投资组合选择受到其长期合同义务的重大利率敏感性的重大影响。•为了解决这一限制,我们提出了一个资产负债夏普比率,它在理论上是有动机的,易于估计,激励相容,并传达了现有措施中未包含的信息。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Fixed Income
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