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Optimal investment–consumption–insurance strategy with inflation risk and stochastic income in an Itô–Lévy setting 伊托-莱维环境下具有通胀风险和随机收入的最优投资-消费-保险策略
IF 0.7 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1142/s2424786323500548
Gaoganwe S. Moagi, Obonye Doctor
This paper’s focus is on finding the optimal strategies for a trader who invests in stock, a money market account and an inflation-linked index bond. The stock follows a jump diffusion process and the bond is linked to inflation making the two risky. The optimal strategies are determined on two generations of the life of an investor, that is before the investor dies and after the investor dies. We applied the concept of change of probability measures considering Girsanov’s and the Radon–Nikodym theorems. We found the generator of the Backward Stochastic differential equations defined and employed the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) dynamic programming in finding the stochastic optimal controls of interest.
本文的重点是为投资股票、货币市场账户和通胀挂钩指数债券的交易者寻找最优策略。股票遵循跳跃扩散过程,债券与通货膨胀挂钩,因此两者都有风险。最优策略取决于投资者一生中的两代人,即投资者去世前和去世后。考虑到吉尔萨诺夫定理和拉顿-尼科杰姆定理,我们应用了概率度量变化的概念。我们找到了所定义的后向随机微分方程的生成器,并采用汉密尔顿-雅各比-贝尔曼(HJB)动态编程法找到了相关的随机最优控制。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric link between energy market and crypto market 能源市场与加密货币市场之间的不对称联系
IF 0.7 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1142/s242478632350038x
Anshul Agrawal
This paper examines the nonlinear (NL) asymmetric long- and short-run interconnections between energy indices (S&P 500-ENERGY, MSCI-CHINA, and MSCI-WORLD) and the crypto (Bitcoin) market. The daily data have been used from January 1, 2013, to February 24, 2023, archived from the wind database. We use a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework for the research to be empirical. The NARDL test reveals the presence of a nonlinear asymmetric relationship, both in the long-run and short-run, among the MSCI-China, MSCI-World, S&P500-ENERGY indices, and the price of Bitcoin. The S&P 500 energy index and Bitcoin price have an inverse asymmetric connection. The prices of Bitcoin are positively influenced by both positive and negative shifts in the MSCI-CHINA and MSCI-WORLD indices. Overall, this study underscores the growing significance of the cryptocurrency market as a hedge against risks, offering evidence that Bitcoin can be perceived as a safe haven amidst the turbulence of the energy market. This insight holds implications for Bitcoin investors, suggesting its potential as a refuge in times of energy market instability.
本文研究了能源指数(S&P 500-ENERGY、MSCI-CHINA 和 MSCI-WORLD)与加密货币(比特币)市场之间的非线性(NL)非对称长期和短期相互联系。我们使用了从 2013 年 1 月 1 日到 2023 年 2 月 24 日的每日数据,这些数据来自 wind 数据库。我们采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)框架进行实证研究。非线性自回归分布滞后检验揭示了 MSCI-中国、MSCI-世界、标普 500 能源指数和比特币价格之间存在长期和短期的非线性非对称关系。标准普尔 500 能源指数和比特币价格之间存在反向不对称联系。比特币价格受到 MSCI-中国和 MSCI-世界指数正负变动的积极影响。总之,这项研究强调了加密货币市场作为避险工具的日益重要的意义,提供了比特币可被视为能源市场动荡中的避风港的证据。这一观点对比特币投资者具有启示意义,表明比特币有可能成为能源市场不稳定时期的避风港。
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引用次数: 0
The binomial option pricing model: The trouble with dividends 二项式期权定价模型股息的麻烦
IF 0.7 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1142/s2424786323500391
Yisong S. Tian
We identify a problem in the widely used binomial option pricing model when it is used to value options on an asset paying continuous dividends. It does not value pairs of European spot and futures options consistently even though they are theoretically equivalent. The inconsistency arises from the way dividend yield is incorporated into the jumps and probabilities. In addition, the model also has the tendency to undervalue American options due to suboptimal early exercise decisions. While the lingering effect of this problem diminishes asymptotically, it is nonetheless a concern for someone just beginning to learn the model or in applications where the use of a sufficiently large binomial tree is not practical or economical. We propose a simple modification to solve the problem and demonstrate the effectiveness of the solution.
当二叉期权定价模型被用于对连续支付股息的资产期权进行估值时,我们发现了广泛使用的二叉期权定价模型中存在的一个问题。尽管欧洲现货期权和期货期权在理论上是等价的,但二项式期权定价模型对这两种期权的估值并不一致。不一致的原因在于股息率被纳入跳跃和概率的方式。此外,该模型还倾向于低估美式期权的价值,原因是早期行权决策不够理想。虽然这个问题的影响会逐渐减小,但对于刚刚开始学习模型的人来说,或者在使用足够大的二叉树不切实际或不经济的应用中,这仍然是一个值得关注的问题。我们提出了一个简单的修改方案来解决这个问题,并演示了该方案的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Stochastic method of dynamic hedging applied to the high liquid asset markets 适用于高流动性资产市场的动态对冲随机方法
IF 0.7 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-02 DOI: 10.1142/s2424786323500366
Maksim Y. Romanov, Sergey A. Vavilov
In this study, the problem of hedging the risk of price slumping for a given volume of high-liquid assets is considered. One such possible hedging strategy may be the management of a portfolio constituted by the futures contracts holding a short position with respect to the basic asset. Besides that, the amount of having been sold futures is to satisfy the restrictions on the admissible minimal and maximum volume at each instant of time. The goal of such portfolio management is the increase of the weighted average price of futures sales through the speculative transactions realized in the real-time regime. Moreover, as feedback in the process of such management realization, one may use the prices of being executed market bargains only. The efficiency of the proposed hedging scheme is demonstrated by its comparison with the financial results achieved by the static hedging in the process of their both practical realizations based on the historical market prices. In this paper by the “dynamic hedging” concept, one means the execution of speculative transactions with futures taking a short position to provide the additional value of basic asset taking a long position. This notion is introduced in counterweight to the “static hedging” concept when the futures quantity does not vary in time and which goal is to preserve the basic asset value only.
在本研究中,考虑了对给定数量的高流动性资产的价格暴跌风险进行套期保值的问题。其中一种可能的对冲策略可能是管理由持有基本资产空头头寸的期货合约组成的投资组合。除此之外,已卖出期货的数量要满足每一时刻允许的最小和最大交易量的限制。这种投资组合管理的目标是通过在实时机制中实现的投机交易来提高期货销售的加权平均价格。此外,作为这种管理实现过程中的反馈,可以只使用被执行的市场交易价格。通过将所提套期保值方案与静态套期保值方案在基于历史市场价格的实际实现过程中所取得的财务结果进行比较,证明了所提套期保值方案的有效性。本文中所谓的“动态套期保值”概念,指的是通过期货做空来执行投机性交易,以提供基础资产做多的附加价值。当期货数量不随时间变化且目标仅为保持基本资产价值时,引入此概念是为了平衡“静态套期保值”概念。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer preferences on quality of supermarket services in organized retailing: Structural equation modeling approach 组织零售业中消费者对超市服务质量的偏好:结构方程建模方法
Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1142/s2424786323500354
D. E. Vijaya Deepika, N. Kannan
Retailing in India has come a long way. The rapid development and advancement in technology and consumer needs have made the retail sector hold a pivotal role in our economy. Organized retailing has brought in more satisfied and convenient shopping practices among consumers. The major segments covered in organized or modern retailing include store-based and nonstore-based. The organized retail market has a lot of scope and opportunities due to value for money, changing consumer shopping patterns, rural market, enhanced middle-class consumers, growth and awareness of consumerism, technological impact, media and social media apprising and increased income (Suresh, 2019). This study focuses on the supermarket segment of organized retailing, where the major daily groceries and monthly household needs of consumers are extensively delivered. Even though the major online grocery stores and applications have become a part of consumers’ lives, supermarkets and hypermarkets are enduring and growing due to the constant support offered by consumers of all categories. Despite the pandemic hindrances, the organized retailing sectors have registered strong growth and performance. This study aims to analyze consumer preferences for supermarkets and the reasons behind choosing supermarkets. The data were collected from 128 respondents who were shoppers of various supermarkets with reference to Chennai city. The data were collected through a self-administered survey using a structured questionnaire. The analysis of data was performed using descriptive statistics and SPSS AMOS. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used in order to evaluate the association between variables used in the study.
印度的零售业已经走过了漫长的道路。科技的快速发展和进步,以及消费者的需求,使零售业在经济中扮演着举足轻重的角色。有组织的零售为消费者带来了更满意和方便的购物方式。有组织或现代零售的主要部分包括基于商店和非基于商店的零售。由于物有所值,消费者购物模式的变化,农村市场,中产阶级消费者的增强,消费主义的增长和意识,技术影响,媒体和社交媒体的通知以及收入的增加,有组织的零售市场有很大的范围和机会(Suresh, 2019)。本研究的重点是有组织零售的超市部分,消费者的主要日常杂货和每月家庭需求广泛交付。尽管主要的在线杂货店和应用程序已经成为消费者生活的一部分,但由于各类消费者的不断支持,超市和大卖场正在持续发展。尽管受到大流行病的阻碍,但有组织的零售部门取得了强劲的增长和业绩。本研究旨在分析消费者对超市的偏好以及选择超市的原因。数据收集自128名受访者,他们是金奈市各超市的购物者。数据是通过使用结构化问卷的自我管理调查收集的。数据分析采用描述性统计和SPSS AMOS软件。使用结构方程模型(SEM)来评估研究中使用的变量之间的关联。
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引用次数: 0
On the influencing factors of AH shares linkage in China under new regulation policy of reduction 减持新调控政策下中国AH股联动的影响因素
Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1142/s2424786323500342
Yuping Song, Zhenwei Li, Guopeng Jin, Jiefei Huang
AH stock premium and its price linkage have always been the key problems of concern for scholars and investors. Taking the stock price yield of AH stock as the explanatory variable, this paper adopts the panel quantile model to probe into the linkage mechanism of AH stock price from five aspects such as risk difference, liquidity difference, demand elasticity difference, information asymmetry and new regulation policy of reduction. Due to the herding effect, information asymmetry has a negative effect on the H-share yield in the income and loss intervals, and a positive effect in the stable interval. The negative effect of liquidity difference on the H-share yield in the loss interval is converted into the positive effect in the income interval, but it is the most sensitive in high risk areas. The influence of demand elasticity on H-share yield is characterized by the typical characteristics of Chinese stock market “chasing after go up and killing cheapen” or “buying the winners”. Risk difference is not obvious because the behavior of risk lover and risk averter is offset by each other. The introduction of a 2017-year reduction in the new rules has significantly reduced the share price yield of H-shares. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for investors to invest and avoid risk in AH stocks and some specific policy implications for financial regulators are also provided based on these results.
AH股票溢价及其价格联动一直是学者和投资者关注的关键问题。本文以AH股票的股价收益率为解释变量,采用面板分位模型,从风险差异、流动性差异、需求弹性差异、信息不对称、减持新调控政策等五个方面探讨AH股票价格的联动机制。由于羊群效应,信息不对称在收益和损失区间对h股收益率有负影响,在稳定区间有正影响。流动性差异对h股收益率的负影响在亏损区间转化为收益区间的正影响,但在高风险区域最为敏感。需求弹性对h股收益率的影响表现为中国股市“追高杀低”或“买高买低”的典型特征。风险偏好者和风险厌恶者的行为相互抵消,导致风险差异不明显。新规引入2017年减持,显著降低了h股的股价收益率。最后,本文对投资者投资AH股和规避风险提出了一些建议,并根据这些结果对金融监管机构提出了一些具体的政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Beating the market with a simple proposed portfolio and technical trading rules 通过简单的建议组合和技术交易规则击败市场
Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1142/s2424786323500330
Massoud Metghalchi, Peggy Cloninger, Farhang Niroomand
This study presents evidence that well-known technical trading rules (TTRs) applied to a proposed simple exchange-traded fund (ETF) portfolio provide better risk-adjusted performance than the ‘market’ and top-ranked balanced funds (BFs). We form a portfolio of two well-known ETFs and apply some well-known TTRs like Moving Average (MA), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) techniques to this simple proposed portfolio from January 31, 2007 to August 31, 2021. We design two strategies: (1) Long/Money and (2) Leverage/Money. We compare the risk-adjusted performance of some well-known trading rules applied to our proposed portfolio with strategy (1), Long/Money, which is a more conservative investment strategy, to the risk-adjusted performance of 14 top-ranked BFs. The best trading rules with strategy (1) applied to our portfolio outperform all the top-ranked BFs for the entire period and over two equal sub-periods. Similarly, the best trading rules applied to our portfolio with strategy (2) outperform the ‘market’, a Buy and Hold (B&H) strategy for the entire period and over two equal sub-periods. This paper contributes to the literature examining the common assumptions of efficient markets and could have important practical implications for many fund managers. In addition, the social impact of our paper could affect thousands of retail traders who are trying to ‘beat’ the market.
本研究提供的证据表明,应用于拟议的简单交易所交易基金(ETF)投资组合的众所周知的技术交易规则(trs)比“市场”和排名靠前的平衡基金(BFs)提供更好的风险调整绩效。我们建立了两个知名etf的投资组合,并将移动平均线(MA),相对强弱指数(RSI)和移动平均收敛发散(MACD)技术应用于2007年1月31日至2021年8月31日的简单建议投资组合。我们设计了两种策略:(1)多头/资金和(2)杠杆/资金。我们将一些著名的交易规则应用于我们提出的策略(1),即更保守的投资策略Long/Money的投资组合,将其风险调整后的表现与14个排名靠前的BFs的风险调整后的表现进行比较。将策略(1)应用于我们的投资组合的最佳交易规则在整个时期和两个相等的子时期内都优于所有排名靠前的BFs。同样,最佳交易规则适用于我们的投资组合,策略(2)优于“市场”,在整个时期和两个相等的子时期采用买入并持有(B&H)策略。本文有助于研究有效市场的共同假设的文献,并可能对许多基金经理具有重要的实际意义。此外,我们报纸的社会影响可能会影响到成千上万试图“击败”市场的零售交易商。
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引用次数: 0
A machine learning-based assessments of green product purchase patterns in Tamilnadu 基于机器学习的泰米尔纳德邦绿色产品购买模式评估
Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1142/s2424786323500317
C. Nithya Devi, B. Subatra
The pandemic Corona epidemic has had profound implications on supply chains, from raw materials to finished items. Diets, hygiene and general well-being have all been impacted by these changes. Customers’ preferences for eco-friendly and green products have increased as a consequence of food safety concerns, given that the current state of the environment is so detrimental to human health and well-being on a worldwide scale. As a result, customers’ attitudes, perceptions, tastes and purchases are becoming more environmentally conscious. The purpose of green/eco-friendly marketing is to meet customers’ wants and needs while simultaneously conserving the environment and boosting social benefits. This study’s goal is to identify the primary drivers of consumer behavior in the purchase of environmentally friendly goods. Since social media is the most widely used for views, references and product information, this study effort suggests a system based on social media data called machine learning scheme for assessments of factors motivating consumers (MLS-AFMC). Regression analysis and machine learning techniques were used in this study to examine Indian green goods. Furthermore, client preferences and behavior are verified by this study’s findings.
冠状病毒大流行对供应链产生了深远影响,从原材料到成品。饮食、卫生和总体幸福感都受到了这些变化的影响。鉴于目前的环境状况在全球范围内对人类健康和福祉有害,消费者对环保和绿色产品的偏好增加了,这是出于对食品安全的担忧。因此,消费者的态度、观念、品味和购买都变得更加环保。绿色环保营销的目的是在满足顾客需求的同时保护环境和提高社会效益。本研究的目的是找出消费者购买环保产品行为的主要驱动因素。由于社交媒体是最广泛使用的观点、参考和产品信息,本研究提出了一个基于社交媒体数据的系统,称为机器学习方案,用于评估激励消费者的因素(MLS-AFMC)。本研究使用回归分析和机器学习技术来检验印度绿色产品。此外,本研究的发现验证了客户的偏好和行为。
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引用次数: 0
The Reality and Prospects of Economic Development of the South Caucasus Region: New Approaches to the Influence of Internal and External Economic Factors 南高加索地区经济发展的现实与前景:内外部经济因素影响的新途径
Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.37394/232032.2023.1.31
Irshad Karimli, Abdullah Jasim Al Shamsi, Ramal Karimov, Ofelya Mazanova
In general, the most favorable position in the Caucasus in terms of territory belongs to the South Caucasus. It is necessary not only to analyze but also to generalize the geoeconomic realities of the South Caucasus region, which increase its importance and affect the system of international economic relations. First of all, it should be noted that the location of water bodies such as the Caspian and Black Seas, surrounded by countries such as Russia, Iran, and Turkey, has turned the South Caucasus region into an East-West and North-South corridor. These factors show that the Caucasus, especially the South Caucasus, occupies an important position in the geo-economic region of the world. In recent years, it is clear that international organizations and the world's economic powers attach great importance to the region. It is no coincidence that the South Caucasus and Central Asia have led to sustainable development and security from the Mediterranean to China, as well as sustainable development and the export of Caspian oil and gas with the participation of world-renowned companies to the European market.
总的来说,就领土而言,高加索地区最有利的位置属于南高加索。不仅有必要分析而且有必要概括南高加索地区的地缘经济现实,这些现实增加了南高加索地区的重要性并影响到国际经济关系体系。首先,应该指出的是,里海和黑海等水体的位置,被俄罗斯、伊朗和土耳其等国家包围,使南高加索地区成为东西和南北走廊。这些因素表明,高加索地区,特别是南高加索地区在世界地缘经济区域中占有重要地位。近年来,国际组织和世界经济大国对该地区的高度重视是显而易见的。并非巧合的是,南高加索和中亚导致了从地中海到中国的可持续发展和安全,以及可持续发展和里海石油和天然气在世界知名公司的参与下出口到欧洲市场。
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引用次数: 0
A machine learning-based assessments of customer satisfaction levels in Indian Postal Services (ML-ACSLIPS) for selected Tamilnadu districts from social media content 基于机器学习的印度邮政服务客户满意度评估(ML-ACSLIPS)从社交媒体内容选定的泰米尔纳德邦地区
Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.1142/s2424786323500299
T. Sangeetha, B. Subatra
The Indian Postal Services (IPSs) have above 155,333 post offices distributed globally. They are one of the most known and established government-owned institutions with sizable customer bases. They provide accessible and affordable services in India thanks to the unrivalled postal systems with various new services added in the last decades which include money transfers, distribution of mutual funds, and mail/parcel deliveries. IPSs have positioned themselves as dependable agencies for the Government of India. It has a competitive advantage of geographical accessibility. The system has also established centralized core banking solutions with alternative delivery channels enabling everywhere, anytime banking settings in India. Since the current marketplaces focus on clientele; businesses need to regard them as profit-making entities creating needs for high-quality services and management essential for customer satisfaction and retention. Globalization has added to acute competition to IPSs making it imperative to improve the overall quality of their services. This study’s goal is to identify the primary drivers of consumer happiness with IPSs. Since social media is the most widely used for views, references, and product information, this study effort suggests a system based on social media data called Machine learning-based Assessments of Customer Satisfaction Levels in Indian Postal Services (ML-ACSLIPS). Regression analysis and machine learning techniques (MLTs) were used in this study to examine Indian customer satisfaction levels in IPSs.
印度邮政服务(IPSs)在全球拥有超过155,333个邮局。他们是最知名和最成熟的国有机构之一,拥有庞大的客户基础。他们在印度提供方便和负担得起的服务,这要归功于无与伦比的邮政系统,在过去几十年里增加了各种新服务,包括转账、共同基金的分配和邮件/包裹递送。ips将自己定位为印度政府的可靠机构。它具有地理可达性的竞争优势。该系统还建立了集中的核心银行解决方案,提供可选择的交付渠道,使印度随时随地的银行设置成为可能。由于目前的市场专注于客户;企业需要将它们视为盈利实体,创造对高质量服务和管理的需求,这对客户满意度和保留率至关重要。全球化加剧了IPSs的激烈竞争,因此必须提高其服务的全面质量。本研究的目的是确定消费者满意度与ips的主要驱动因素。由于社交媒体是最广泛使用的观点、参考和产品信息,本研究提出了一个基于社交媒体数据的系统,称为基于机器学习的印度邮政服务客户满意度评估(ML-ACSLIPS)。本研究使用回归分析和机器学习技术(mlt)来检查ips中印度客户的满意度水平。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Financial Engineering
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