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Factors associated with in-hospital case fatality following spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage among young ghanaians: findings from a hospital-based stroke registry 加纳年轻人自发性脑出血后住院病死率相关因素:来自医院卒中登记的发现
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108568
Priscilla Abrafi Opare-Addo MD, MSCR , Fred Stephen Sarfo MD, PhD, PhD , Minas Aikins MD , Serwaa Asare-Bediako MD , Adwoa Agyemang Adu-Gyamfi MD , Nessya Taylor MD , Emmanuella Naa Ayerki Nartey MD , Maxwell Nyenaah BSc , Jessey Mahama Holu BSc , Samuel Kekeli MPhil , Christian Obirikorang PhD , Francis Agyemang-Yeboah PhD

Background

The incidence of spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage (sICH) in Low-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) has risen steeply over the past decade, with a relatively earlier age of onset and higher rates of adverse outcomes compared to the rest of the world.

Aim

To determine the factors associated with in-hospital case fatality among patients aged ≤ 50 years with spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage, admitted to a Ghanaian tertiary Hospital.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study among individuals aged 18-50 years admitted with Intracerebral Hemorrhage to Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital over 2 years, from 2022 to 2023. Multivariable Logistic regression was performed to determine the factors associated with ICH-related case fatality during hospital admission. Survival was compared across categories of explanatory variables using the Kaplan-Meier curve. Predictors of time to death were identified using the Cox regression model.

Results

46.2% (190 out of 411) of all ICH cases were aged ≤ 50 years, with the majority (63.7%) of those affected in this age group being male. The overall case fatality rate among hospitalized patients in this age group was 27.4% (52 out of 190). The factors independently associated with in-hospital case fatality were the presence of aspiration pneumonia (aOR 6.00 (2.47-15.46), p=0.000), NIHSS score at the time of admission (aOR 1.16 (1.08-1.24), p=0.000), and the presence of neuroimaging features of raised intracranial pressure (aOR 2.66 (1.04-7.00), p=0.044). Independent predictors of time to death included the presence of aspiration pneumonia (aOR 3.51 (1.44-8.55), p=0.004) and NIHSS score (aOR 1.07 (1.01-1.13), p=1.27e-08).

Conclusions

Up to 1 in 4 young Ghanaian patients succumb to spontaneous ICH during hospitalization. Prevention, prompt detection, and management of complications, notably aspiration pneumonia during the acute phase of admission, may significantly reduce ICH-related mortality among young individuals in our setting.
背景:在过去十年中,中低收入国家(LMICs)自发性脑出血(sICH)的发病率急剧上升,与世界其他地区相比,自发性脑出血的发病年龄相对较早,不良后果发生率较高。目的:探讨加纳某三级医院收治的年龄≤50岁自发性脑出血患者住院病死率的相关因素。方法:从2022年到2023年,我们在Komfo Anokye教学医院进行了一项为期2年的18-50岁脑出血患者的前瞻性队列研究。采用多变量Logistic分析确定住院期间与脑出血相关病死率相关的因素。使用Kaplan-Meier曲线比较不同类别解释变量的生存率。使用Cox回归模型确定死亡时间的预测因子。结果:411例脑出血患者中46.2%(190例)年龄≤50岁,其中男性占63.7%。该年龄组住院患者的总病死率为27.4%(190人中有52人)。与住院病死率独立相关的因素为吸入性肺炎(aOR 6.00 (2.47 ~ 15.46), p=0.000)、入院时NIHSS评分(aOR 1.16 (1.08 ~ 1.24), p=0.000)、颅内压升高的神经影像学特征(aOR 2.66 (1.04 ~ 7.00), p=0.044)。死亡时间的独立预测因子包括吸入性肺炎(aOR 3.51 (1.44-8.55), p=0.004)和NIHSS评分(aOR 1.07 (1.01-1.13), p=1.27e-08)。结论:高达1 / 4的加纳年轻患者在住院期间死于自发性脑出血。预防、及时发现和处理并发症,特别是入院急性期的吸入性肺炎,可以显著降低我们研究环境中年轻人与ich相关的死亡率。
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引用次数: 0
Early insights from a multi-centre national stroke surveillance initiative in Tanzania 坦桑尼亚多中心国家卒中监测倡议的早期见解。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108571
Sarah Shali Matuja , Azan Nyundo , Emmanuel Assey , Joel Bwelemo , Marieke Dekker , Sarah Urasa , Emanuel Makarius , Peter Kishimbo , Yudathadei Baltazar , Baraka Alphonce , Joshua Ngimbwa , Philip Adebayo , Sipora Siha , Anney Chagula , Mary Libena , Theresia Lutufyo , Mohamed A Mnacho , Faraja S Chiwanga , Kigocha Okeng’o , Brighton Mushengezi , William Matuja

Background

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability globally, with sub-Saharan Africa, bearing the greatest burden. Tanzania has only one active stroke registry, limiting evidence-based care and policy development. We aimed to expand the registry into a multi-centre study across eight major tertiary hospitals to generate baseline data for a national stroke registry.

Methods

From January to August 2024, we analysed de-identified data from adults (≥18 years) admitted with a World Health Organisation defined stroke. Data collected included demographics, risk factors, imaging, and in-hospital mortality. Logistic regression identified predictors of mortality.

Results

A total of 1000 patients were registered with a mean age 60.2±15 years and 56.2% (562/1000) were females. Most strokes occurred in those aged 50-69 years 46.3% (463/1000). Hypertension was the most common risk factor 90.1% (901/1000), followed by diabetes 13.1% (131/1000), prior stroke 10.6% (106/1000) and HIV infection 3.5% (35/1000). Haemorrhagic and ischaemic strokes accounted for 57.9% (579/1000) and 38.3% (383/1000) of cases, respectively; and 5% (19/383) of ischaemic strokes presented within 4.5 h from symptom onset. In-hospital mortality was 31.5% (315/1000), highest among patients aged 50–59 years (23.2%). Independent predictors of mortality included previous cardiac disease (aOR 2.15; 95% CI: 1.18–3.94) and haemorrhagic stroke (aOR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.12–2.02).

Conclusions

Stroke imposes a high burden in Tanzania, with substantial mortality and delayed presentation. Strengthening hypertension control, early stroke recognition, and organized stroke unit care are critical priorities. These findings provide foundational data for the national stroke surveillance initiative and support evidence-based planning for stroke prevention, acute care, and system readiness across Tanzania.
背景:中风是全球死亡和残疾的主要原因,其中撒哈拉以南非洲负担最重。坦桑尼亚只有一个有效的中风登记,限制了循证护理和政策制定。我们的目标是将登记扩展为跨八家主要三级医院的多中心研究,为国家卒中登记生成基线数据。方法:从2024年1月至8月,我们分析了来自世界卫生组织定义的卒中入院的成年人(≥18岁)的去识别数据。收集的数据包括人口统计学、危险因素、影像学和住院死亡率。逻辑回归确定了死亡率的预测因素。结果:共登记患者1000例,平均年龄60.2±15岁,56.2%(562/1000)为女性。以50 ~ 69岁者居多,占46.3%(463/1000)。高血压是最常见的危险因素,占90.1%(901/1000),其次是糖尿病13.1%(131/1000),既往中风10.6% (106/1000),HIV感染3.5%(35/1000)。出血性卒中和缺血性卒中分别占57.9%(579/1000)和38.3% (383/1000);5%(19/383)的缺血性卒中患者在症状出现后4.5年内出现。住院死亡率为31.5%(315/1000),在50-59岁的患者中最高(23.2%)。死亡率的独立预测因子包括既往心脏病(aOR 2.15; 95% CI: 1.18-3.94)和出血性中风(aOR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.12-2.02)。结论:中风在坦桑尼亚造成了很高的负担,死亡率高且延迟出现。加强高血压控制、早期卒中识别和有组织的卒中单位护理是当务之急。这些发现为国家卒中监测倡议提供了基础数据,并支持坦桑尼亚卒中预防、急性护理和系统准备的循证规划。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of health outcomes of stroke survivors in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis 非洲中风幸存者健康结果的决定因素:系统回顾和荟萃分析
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108569
Marufat Odetunde PhD , Tadesse Gebrye MSc, MPH , Chidozie Mbada PhD , Faatihah Niyi-Odumosu PhD , Francis Fatoye PhD

Background

Understanding the determinants of stroke prognosis and outcomes is crucial for guiding treatment decisions and recovery expectations. This systematic review aimed to synthesise the key determinants of health outcomes for stroke survivors (SSVs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with a particular focus on Africa.

Methods

This review adhered to the PRISMA guidelines and was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42025629244). Literature search was conducted using EBSCOhost, Scopus, and Web of Science databases for studies published from inception to April 14, 2025. Original researches on SSVs in Africa were included. Methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale. Data was analysed using a narrative synthesis and summarised in tables and texts. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively synthesise the findings from the included reviews.

Results

The literature search identified 979 articles published between October 1987 and April 2025. Of these, 52 studies conducted in seven African countries met the inclusion criteria. Clinical determinants were reported in 40 studies, while 12 studies assessed psychosocial factors. Risks of bias were classified as low in 47 of the studies and moderate in the remaining five. The key clinical determinants of health outcomes were stroke severity/neurological status (n = 19), biomarkers and blood parameters (n = 18), and abnormal radiological/imaging findings (n = 10). The psychosocial determinants were mental health and emotional well-being, especially from social support (n = 6) and quality-of-life domains (n = 5). The overall pooled estimates of clinical risk factors among SSVs indicated a statistically significant association, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.446 (95% CI: 1.202-1.739, P < 0.001) based on 11 studies.

Conclusion

The determinants of health outcomes among SSVs in Africa are multifactorial. The significance of these findings highlights the critical importance of comprehensive management approaches that target key factors to enhance health outcomes and reduce the burden of stroke in Africa.
背景:了解脑卒中预后和预后的决定因素对于指导治疗决策和康复预期至关重要。本系统综述旨在综合中低收入国家中风幸存者(ssv)健康结果的关键决定因素,特别关注非洲。方法:基于PROSPERO (CRD42025629244)。文献检索使用EBSCOhost、Scopus和Web of Science数据库,检索从成立到2025年4月14日发表的研究。收录了关于非洲ssv的原始研究。采用纽卡斯尔-渥太华量表评估方法学质量。数据采用叙述综合法进行分析,并在表格和文本中加以总结。结果:文献检索确定了1987年10月至2025年4月间发表的979篇文章。其中,在7个非洲国家进行的52项研究符合纳入标准。40项研究报告了临床决定因素,而12项研究评估了社会心理因素。其中47项研究的偏倚风险为低,其余5项为中等。健康结局的关键临床决定因素是中风严重程度/神经系统状态(n=19)、生物标志物和血液参数(n=18)以及异常的放射学/影像学发现(n=10)。心理社会决定因素是心理健康和情感健康,特别是来自社会支持(n=6)和生活质量领域(n=5)。在11项研究中,ssv临床危险因素的总体汇总估计显示具有统计学意义的相关性,优势比(OR)为1.446 (95% CI: 1.202-1.739, P < 0.001)。结论:非洲ssv健康结局的决定因素是多因素的。这些发现的重要性突出了针对关键因素的综合管理方法的重要性,以提高非洲的健康结果并减轻中风负担。
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引用次数: 0
Letter to the editor - Effectiveness of perception–interaction-enhanced rehabilitation in post-stroke recovery: A real-world propensity-matched cohort study 致编辑的信-感知互动增强康复在中风后恢复中的有效性:一项现实世界倾向匹配的队列研究。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108566
Tamanna Sharma BPT, MPT, Mandeep Kumar Jangra BPT, MPT, PhD, Akanksha Saxena BPT, MPT, PhD
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引用次数: 0
Spatial and spatiotemporal pattern of stroke relative risk in Ghana using Bayesian modelling approach 空间和时空模式的中风相对风险在加纳使用贝叶斯建模方法。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108567
Abdul-Karim Iddrisu , Sampson Appiah Takyi , Joyseline Owusu Afriyie , Abubakar Siddick

Introduction

Stroke ranks as the second-leading cause of death and third in combined death and disability globally. In Ghana, there is a significant incidence of stroke, yet systematic reviews highlight a lack of comprehensive data on stroke in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana. Additionally, information on the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of stroke risk across Ghana's 16 regions remains limited. The objective of this study was to study the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of stroke relative risk, identify regions with high-risk regions and associated predictors.

Material and Methods

Stroke risk for each region was estimated using Bayesian spatial and spatiotemporal models, and these risks were mapped to visualize areas with elevated stroke relative risk. The Random Forest and Gradient Boosting models, nonparametric ensemble machine learning algorithms, were used to investigate the effects of potential predictors on stroke risk. The study utilized annual stroke data from 2018 to 2022 obtained from the Ghana Health Service (GHS) via the District Health Information Management System version 2 (DHIMS2) and utilized parameter estimates within the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation via R software version 4.3.2.

Results

Stroke relative risk decreases significantly over the study period. Some regions exhibited elevated risk, where the spatial model identified Volta, Central, Eastern, Bono, Upper East, Bono East, and Oti as high-risk regions, while the spatiotemporal model pinpointed Eastern, Ahafo, Bono East, Upper West, Savannah, Bono, and Western as high-risk regions. Clustering and variability in stroke risk were observed among regions. The study highlighted that gross national income significantly decreases the risk of stroke occurrence. While temperature and diabetes prevalence showed increased stroke risk, they were not statistically significant.

Conclusion

This study offers valuable insights that can inform resource allocation to regions experiencing elevated stroke risk. Identified high-risk regions can inform targeted screening strategies, referral pathway strengthening, and resource prioritization. Diagnostic capacity (including CT/MRI access), health-facility reporting quality, and surveillance system upgrades needed to reduce measurement bias and improve case ascertainment. Furthermore, we situate the findings within Ghana’s existing noncommunicable disease (NCD) policy frameworks and describe how routine updates of the model using new DHIMS2 data can support ongoing decision-making.
在全球范围内,中风是第二大死亡原因和第三大死亡和残疾原因。在加纳,中风发病率很高,但系统综述强调,包括加纳在内的撒哈拉以南非洲缺乏全面的中风数据。此外,关于加纳16个地区中风风险时空分布的信息仍然有限。本研究的目的是研究脑卒中相对风险的时空分布,确定高危区域和相关预测因素。材料和方法:使用贝叶斯空间和时空模型估计每个地区的卒中风险,并将这些风险绘制成可视化卒中相对风险升高的区域。使用随机森林和梯度增强模型(非参数集成机器学习算法)来研究潜在预测因素对中风风险的影响。该研究利用了通过地区卫生信息管理系统版本2 (DHIMS2)从加纳卫生服务(GHS)获得的2018年至2022年的年度中风数据,并通过R软件版本4.3.2利用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似中的参数估计。结果:中风的相对风险在研究期间显著降低。空间模型将Volta、Central、Eastern、Bono、Upper East、Bono East和Oti确定为高风险地区,而时空模型将Eastern、Ahafo、Bono East、Upper West、Savannah、Bono和Western确定为高风险地区。在不同地区之间观察到卒中风险的聚类性和变异性。该研究强调,国民总收入显著降低中风发生的风险。虽然体温和糖尿病患病率显示中风风险增加,但它们在统计上并不显著。结论:这项研究提供了有价值的见解,可以为卒中高风险地区的资源分配提供信息。确定的高风险地区可以告知有针对性的筛查策略,转诊途径加强和资源优先排序。诊断能力(包括CT/MRI获取)、卫生机构报告质量和监测系统升级需要减少测量偏差和改善病例确定。此外,我们将研究结果置于加纳现有的非传染性疾病(NCD)政策框架中,并描述了使用新的DHIMS2数据对模型进行常规更新如何支持正在进行的决策。
{"title":"Spatial and spatiotemporal pattern of stroke relative risk in Ghana using Bayesian modelling approach","authors":"Abdul-Karim Iddrisu ,&nbsp;Sampson Appiah Takyi ,&nbsp;Joyseline Owusu Afriyie ,&nbsp;Abubakar Siddick","doi":"10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Stroke ranks as the second-leading cause of death and third in combined death and disability globally. In Ghana, there is a significant incidence of stroke, yet systematic reviews highlight a lack of comprehensive data on stroke in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana. Additionally, information on the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of stroke risk across Ghana's 16 regions remains limited. The objective of this study was to study the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of stroke relative risk, identify regions with high-risk regions and associated predictors.</div></div><div><h3>Material and Methods</h3><div>Stroke risk for each region was estimated using Bayesian spatial and spatiotemporal models, and these risks were mapped to visualize areas with elevated stroke relative risk. The Random Forest and Gradient Boosting models, nonparametric ensemble machine learning algorithms, were used to investigate the effects of potential predictors on stroke risk. The study utilized annual stroke data from 2018 to 2022 obtained from the Ghana Health Service (GHS) via the District Health Information Management System version 2 (DHIMS2) and utilized parameter estimates within the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation via R software version 4.3.2.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Stroke relative risk decreases significantly over the study period. Some regions exhibited elevated risk, where the spatial model identified Volta, Central, Eastern, Bono, Upper East, Bono East, and Oti as high-risk regions, while the spatiotemporal model pinpointed Eastern, Ahafo, Bono East, Upper West, Savannah, Bono, and Western as high-risk regions. Clustering and variability in stroke risk were observed among regions. The study highlighted that gross national income significantly decreases the risk of stroke occurrence. While temperature and diabetes prevalence showed increased stroke risk, they were not statistically significant.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>This study offers valuable insights that can inform resource allocation to regions experiencing elevated stroke risk. Identified high-risk regions can inform targeted screening strategies, referral pathway strengthening, and resource prioritization. Diagnostic capacity (including CT/MRI access), health-facility reporting quality, and surveillance system upgrades needed to reduce measurement bias and improve case ascertainment. Furthermore, we situate the findings within Ghana’s existing noncommunicable disease (NCD) policy frameworks and describe how routine updates of the model using new DHIMS2 data can support ongoing decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54368,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Stroke & Cerebrovascular Diseases","volume":"35 3","pages":"Article 108567"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146042220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deep learning architectures for modeling and forecasting stroke cases in Ghana 用于建模和预测加纳中风病例的深度学习架构
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108570
Abdul-Karim Iddrisu , Morongwa Gabanakgosi , Abubakar Hudu Siddick

Introduction

Stroke remains a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, ranking second in deaths and third in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Its burden is particularly severe in low- and middle-income countries such as Ghana, where stroke is currently the leading cause of death. However, local data and predictive modeling remain limited, hindering effective health planning and intervention. This study aimed to model and forecast stroke incidence in Ghana using advanced deep learning techniques to support data-driven public health strategies.

Material and Methods

Monthly stroke case data from 2018 to 2023 were obtained from Ghana Health Service. Four deep learning models; Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bayesian LSTM (BLSTM), Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM), and Bayesian ConvLSTM (BConvLSTM), were employed to capture spatiotemporal patterns in stroke incidence. Diabetes prevalence was included as a covariate. Model performance was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Data analyses were carried out using python version 3.13.7 and R version software.

Results

LSTM and BLSTM models showed strong forecasting performance, with LSTM yielding the lowest errors. ConvLSTM and BConvLSTM models underperformed significantly. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 reveal initial variability in 2024, with monthly cases between 1,694 and 2,007, followed by gradual stabilization through 2028, where values converge between 1,774 and 1,781.

Conclusion

The study highlights a persistently high but stabilizing stroke burden in Ghana. It underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions addressing modifiable risk factors, particularly diabetes, and supports LSTM as the most effective model for forecasting in this context.
中风仍然是全球发病率和死亡率的主要原因,在死亡人数中排名第二,在残疾调整生命年(DALYs)中排名第三。在加纳等低收入和中等收入国家,中风的负担尤其严重,在这些国家,中风目前是主要的死亡原因。然而,当地数据和预测模型仍然有限,阻碍了有效的卫生规划和干预。本研究旨在利用先进的深度学习技术模拟和预测加纳的中风发病率,以支持数据驱动的公共卫生战略。材料与方法从加纳卫生服务中心获取2018 - 2023年每月脑卒中病例数据。四种深度学习模型;采用长短期记忆(LSTM)、贝叶斯LSTM (BLSTM)、卷积LSTM (ConvLSTM)和贝叶斯ConvLSTM (BConvLSTM)来捕捉脑卒中发生的时空模式。糖尿病患病率作为协变量包括在内。使用平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)评估模型性能。采用python 3.13.7版和R版软件进行数据分析。结果slstm和BLSTM模型预测效果较好,其中LSTM模型误差最小。ConvLSTM和BConvLSTM模型表现不佳。从2024年到2028年的预测显示,2024年的初始变化,每月病例数在1694至2007之间,随后到2028年逐渐稳定,病例数在1774至1781之间收敛。结论:该研究强调了加纳卒中负担持续偏高但趋于稳定。报告强调,迫切需要针对可改变的风险因素,特别是糖尿病,采取有针对性的干预措施,并支持LSTM作为这方面最有效的预测模型。
{"title":"Deep learning architectures for modeling and forecasting stroke cases in Ghana","authors":"Abdul-Karim Iddrisu ,&nbsp;Morongwa Gabanakgosi ,&nbsp;Abubakar Hudu Siddick","doi":"10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108570","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108570","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Stroke remains a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, ranking second in deaths and third in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Its burden is particularly severe in low- and middle-income countries such as Ghana, where stroke is currently the leading cause of death. However, local data and predictive modeling remain limited, hindering effective health planning and intervention. This study aimed to model and forecast stroke incidence in Ghana using advanced deep learning techniques to support data-driven public health strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Material and Methods</h3><div>Monthly stroke case data from 2018 to 2023 were obtained from Ghana Health Service. Four deep learning models; Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bayesian LSTM (BLSTM), Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM), and Bayesian ConvLSTM (BConvLSTM), were employed to capture spatiotemporal patterns in stroke incidence. Diabetes prevalence was included as a covariate. Model performance was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Data analyses were carried out using python version 3.13.7 and R version software.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>LSTM and BLSTM models showed strong forecasting performance, with LSTM yielding the lowest errors. ConvLSTM and BConvLSTM models underperformed significantly. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 reveal initial variability in 2024, with monthly cases between 1,694 and 2,007, followed by gradual stabilization through 2028, where values converge between 1,774 and 1,781.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The study highlights a persistently high but stabilizing stroke burden in Ghana. It underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions addressing modifiable risk factors, particularly diabetes, and supports LSTM as the most effective model for forecasting in this context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54368,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Stroke & Cerebrovascular Diseases","volume":"35 3","pages":"Article 108570"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of diabetes and hyperglycemia on acute stroke outcomes in a semi urban setting in Cameroon: Results of the Buea Stroke Study, Cameroon 糖尿病和高血糖对喀麦隆半城市急性卒中结局的影响:喀麦隆Buea卒中研究的结果
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108565
Clovis Nkoke MD , Cyrille Nkouonlack MD , Ahmadou Musa Jingi MD , Jean Jacques Noubiap MD, PhD

Background

Data on the impact of diabetes mellitus and hyperglycemia on acute stroke outcomes are inconsistent. This study aimed to assess the prognostic impact of diabetes mellitus and admission hyperglycemia on in-hospital stroke outcomes in a semi-urban setting in Cameroon.

Methods

We included patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized for acute stroke at the Buea Regional Hospital, Southwest Region of Cameroon, from January 2021 to August 2023. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the impact of known diabetes mellitus and admission hyperglycemia on in-hospital functional outcome, infections, length of hospital stay, and mortality. Risk estimates are presented as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). A p value of <0.05 was considered significant.

Results

Out of the 369 patients recruited, 99 (26.8%) had diabetes. Of the 267 patients with blood glucose on admission, 81 (30.3%) had hyperglycemia. Patients with diabetes mellitus were significantly older (65.1 vs 61.1 years; p=0.03), had a higher prevalence of hypertension (84.9% vs 66.7%; p=0.001) and more commonly had ischemic stroke (85.9% vs 68.2%; p=0.001). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, diabetes mellitus was significantly associated with prolonged hospital stay (aOR= 2.20; 95% CI1.19-4.06; p=0.01) and infections (aOR= 2.36, 95% CI1.14-4.87; p=0.02) but not with in-hospital mortality and functional outcome. Admission hyperglycemia was not associated with any of the outcomes.

Conclusion

In this cohort of patients in a resource limited setting, diabetes mellitus was associated with longer hospital stay and more frequent infections but not mortality nor poor functional outcome after an acute stroke. Admission hyperglycemia was not associated with poor outcomes.
背景:关于糖尿病和高血糖对急性卒中预后影响的数据不一致。本研究旨在评估喀麦隆半城市环境中糖尿病和入院高血糖对住院卒中结局的预后影响。方法:我们纳入了2021年1月至2023年8月在喀麦隆西南地区Buea地区医院因急性脑卒中住院的年龄≥18岁的患者。采用多变量logistic回归分析评估已知糖尿病和入院时高血糖对住院功能结局、感染、住院时间和死亡率的影响。风险估计以校正优势比(aOR)和95%置信区间(95% CI)表示。结果的p值:在招募的369例患者中,99例(26.8%)患有糖尿病。入院时有血糖的267例患者中,81例(30.3%)有高血糖。糖尿病患者明显年龄较大(65.1岁vs 61.1岁,p=0.03),高血压患病率较高(84.9% vs 66.7%, p=0.001),缺血性卒中患病率较高(85.9% vs 68.2%, p=0.001)。在多变量logistic回归分析中,糖尿病与住院时间延长(aOR= 2.20; 95% CI1.19-4.06; p=0.01)和感染(aOR= 2.36, 95% CI1.14-4.87; p=0.02)显著相关,但与院内死亡率和功能结局无关。入院时高血糖与任何结果无关。结论:在这个资源有限的患者队列中,糖尿病与急性卒中后更长的住院时间和更频繁的感染有关,但与死亡率和功能预后不良无关。入院时高血糖与不良预后无关。
{"title":"Impact of diabetes and hyperglycemia on acute stroke outcomes in a semi urban setting in Cameroon: Results of the Buea Stroke Study, Cameroon","authors":"Clovis Nkoke MD ,&nbsp;Cyrille Nkouonlack MD ,&nbsp;Ahmadou Musa Jingi MD ,&nbsp;Jean Jacques Noubiap MD, PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Data on the impact of diabetes mellitus and hyperglycemia on acute stroke outcomes are inconsistent. This study aimed to assess the prognostic impact of diabetes mellitus and admission hyperglycemia on in-hospital stroke outcomes in a semi-urban setting in Cameroon.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We included patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized for acute stroke at the Buea Regional Hospital, Southwest Region of Cameroon, from January 2021 to August 2023. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the impact of known diabetes mellitus and admission hyperglycemia on in-hospital functional outcome, infections, length of hospital stay, and mortality. Risk estimates are presented as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). A p value of &lt;0.05 was considered significant.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Out of the 369 patients recruited, 99 (26.8%) had diabetes. Of the 267 patients with blood glucose on admission, 81 (30.3%) had hyperglycemia. Patients with diabetes mellitus were significantly older (65.1 vs 61.1 years; p=0.03), had a higher prevalence of hypertension (84.9% vs 66.7%; p=0.001) and more commonly had ischemic stroke (85.9% vs 68.2%; p=0.001). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, diabetes mellitus was significantly associated with prolonged hospital stay (aOR= 2.20; 95% CI1.19-4.06; p=0.01) and infections (aOR= 2.36, 95% CI1.14-4.87; p=0.02) but not with in-hospital mortality and functional outcome. Admission hyperglycemia was not associated with any of the outcomes.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>In this cohort of patients in a resource limited setting, diabetes mellitus was associated with longer hospital stay and more frequent infections but not mortality nor poor functional outcome after an acute stroke. Admission hyperglycemia was not associated with poor outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54368,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Stroke & Cerebrovascular Diseases","volume":"35 3","pages":"Article 108565"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146021102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Synergistic impacts of physical activity and sleep on risk of dementia and all-cause mortality in chinese older stroke survivors 体力活动和睡眠对中国老年脑卒中幸存者痴呆风险和全因死亡率的协同影响
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108547
Jiawen Wei, Yan Shen

Background

Physical activity (PA) and sleep reduce the risk of dementia and mortality, but evidence among older stroke survivors in China is limited.

Objective

To investigate the impact of PA on dementia and all-cause mortality risks in this population and analyze its joint effect with sleep.

Methods

Utilizing data from the CLHLS, we analyzed the correlation of PA with dementia and mortality in elderly stroke survivors and explored the mediating role of dementia in the PA–mortality relationship. Joint variables of PA and sleep were constructed to assess their combined effects on dementia and mortality.

Results

Older stroke survivors engaging in regular PA had a 38% reduced risk of dementia (OR=0.62, 95% CI: 0.56-0.69, P<0.001) and a 44% lower risk of mortality (HR=0.56, 95% CI: 0.52-0.59, P<0.001). Additional protective factors against dementia included pet ownership, social activity, and reading, whereas television viewing and radio listening were linked to an increased risk of dementia. Raising domestic animals/pets, participating in outdoor activities, and performing housework were associated with a lower mortality risk (P<0.05). Dementia mediated 5.9% of PA–mortality risk relationship. The joint analysis highlighted that coupling regular PA with sleep exceeding 9 h was associated with a 42% decrease in dementia risk, whereas pairing it with 9 h or less of sleep yielded a 60% decrease in mortality risk.

Conclusion

For elderly stroke survivors, PA confers protective effects against both dementia and all-cause mortality. This association is partially mediated by the reduced risk of dementia. Furthermore, the beneficial impact of regular PA on these outcomes is moderated by sleep duration, underscoring the necessity of a joint consideration of both factors in prognostic assessments.
背景:体育活动(PA)和睡眠可以降低痴呆和死亡率的风险,但在中国老年中风幸存者中的证据有限。目的:探讨PA对老年痴呆及全因死亡风险的影响,并分析其与睡眠的联合作用。方法:利用CLHLS数据,分析老年脑卒中幸存者PA与痴呆和死亡率的相关性,探讨痴呆在PA-死亡率关系中的中介作用。构建了PA和睡眠的联合变量来评估它们对痴呆和死亡率的综合影响。结果:老年脑卒中幸存者定期接受PA治疗,痴呆风险降低38% (OR=0.62, 95% CI: 0.56-0.69)。结论:对于老年脑卒中幸存者,PA对痴呆和全因死亡率均有保护作用。这种关联部分是由痴呆风险降低介导的。此外,定期PA对这些结果的有益影响受到睡眠时间的影响,强调了在预后评估中联合考虑这两个因素的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Aspirin-ticagrelor use after mild acute ischemic stroke: Findings from the get with the guidelines-stroke registry 轻度急性缺血性卒中后阿司匹林-替格瑞洛的使用:来自卒中登记指南的发现
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108564
Ava L. Liberman MD , Cenai Zhang BS , Sara K. Rostanski MD , Hooman Kamel MD MS , Babak B. Navi MD MS , Natalie T. Cheng MD , Radhika Sundararajan MD PhD , Steven R. Messe MD , Gregg C. Fonarow MD , Shyam Prabhakaran MD MS , Ying Xian MD PhD

Background

Recent guidelines suggest that aspirin-ticagrelor may be considered for stroke prevention after mild acute ischemic stroke. However, it is unclear how commonly this dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) regimen is used in practice.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the Get With The Guidelines-Stroke registry 2017-2023. Patients with a non-cardioembolic mild ischemic stroke (defined as NIHSS <6) who presented within 24 hours of last known well without a contraindication to DAPT were included. The primary study outcome was the proportion of patients prescribed aspirin-ticagrelor at hospital discharge; temporal patterns of prescribing aspirin-ticagrelor and aspirin-clopidogrel over time are also described. In addition to standard tests of comparison, we used multiple logistic regression to evaluate associations between patient and facility factors and aspirin-ticagrelor use reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Among 1,018,736 patients meeting study criteria, 478,049 (46.9%) were female and median age was 68 (IQR: 59, 78) years. A total of 12,845 (1.3%) patients were discharged on aspirin-ticagrelor whereas 448,348 (44.0%) were discharged on aspirin-clopidogrel. Prescriptions for aspirin-ticagrelor and for aspirin-clopidogrel significantly increased over the study time-period. In regression analysis, coronary artery disease/prior myocardial infarction (OR: 2.6 [95% CI: 2.5-2.7]), Asian race (OR: 2.1 [95% CI: 1.9-2.2]), aspirin-clopidogrel prescription upon admission (OR: 2.0 [95% CI:1.9-2.1]), and history of stroke/TIA (OR: 1.98 [95% CI: (1.9-2.1)]), were substantially associated with aspirin-ticagrelor use whereas lacking insurance/self-pay (OR: 0.7 [95% CI: 0.6-0.8]), rural setting (OR: 0.8 [95% 0.7-0.9]), and primary stroke centers (OR: 0.3 [95% CI: 0.3-0.4]) were inversely associated with aspirin-ticagrelor. In the subgroup of 176,897 (17.4%) patients with NIHSS 4-5, 74,912 (50.8%) were discharged on aspirin-clopidogrel and 2,394 (1.4%) on aspirin-ticagrelor.

Conclusion

Unlike aspirin-clopidogrel, aspirin-ticagrelor is infrequently administered after mild acute ischemic stroke (NIHSS <6) despite current guidelines, though the use of both DAPT regimens increased over time.
背景:最近的指南建议阿司匹林-替格瑞洛可用于轻度急性缺血性卒中后的卒中预防。然而,目前尚不清楚这种双重抗血小板治疗(DAPT)方案在实践中的应用有多普遍。方法:我们对2017-2023年Get With the Guidelines-Stroke注册表进行了横断面分析。结果:1018736例符合研究标准的患者中,478049例(46.9%)为女性,中位年龄为68岁(IQR: 59,78)。共有12845例(1.3%)患者使用阿斯匹林-替格瑞洛出院,而448348例(44.0%)患者使用阿斯匹林-氯吡格雷出院。阿斯匹林-替格瑞洛和阿斯匹林-氯吡格雷的处方在研究期间显著增加。在回归分析中,冠状动脉疾病/既往心肌梗死(OR: 2.6 [95% CI: 2.5-2.7])、亚洲种族(OR: 2.1 [95% CI: 1.9-2.2])、入院时阿司匹林-氯吡格雷处方(OR: 2.0 [95% CI:1.9-2.1])、卒中史/TIA (OR: 1.98 [95% CI:1.9-2.1))与阿司匹林-替格瑞洛的使用存在显著相关性,而缺乏保险/自费(OR: 0.7 [95% CI: 0.6-0.8])、农村环境(OR: 0.8 [95% CI: 0.7-0.9])和主要卒中中心(OR: 0.3 [95% CI: 0.9])与阿司匹林-替格瑞洛的使用存在显著相关性。0.3-0.4])与阿斯匹林-替格瑞洛呈负相关。在176,897例(17.4%)NIHSS 4-5患者亚组中,74,912例(50.8%)患者出院时使用阿司匹林-氯吡格雷,2,394例(1.4%)患者出院时使用阿司匹林-替格瑞洛。结论:与阿斯匹林-氯吡格雷不同,阿斯匹林-替格瑞洛在轻度急性缺血性卒中(NIHSS)后很少使用
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引用次数: 0
Protective association of higher frequency physical exercise with all-cause mortality risk in stroke patients: evidence from the health and retirement study 高频率体育锻炼与卒中患者全因死亡风险的保护性关联:来自健康与退休研究的证据
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2026.108563
Jingtao Du , Xiaofeng Jiang , Binghua Shao , Liu Zhenshun , Liu Tianyu , Jianwei Wu

Objective

To examine the association between the different exercise frequency in daily life and all-cause mortality risk of the patients after stroke, and to analyze their dose-response relationship.

Methods

1,639 participants with stroke were selected from Health and Retirement Study (HRS) database. Based on physical exercise frequency questionnaires, participants were categorized into five groups: sedentary (n=152), low (n=276), moderate (n=212), high (n=205), and vigorous (n=794). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models and survival analyses were applied to examine the associations between exercise frequency and all-cause mortality risk in stroke patients.

Results

Median follow-up time revealed that both median survival time and interquartile range increased progressively with higher exercise frequency. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated a significant dose-response relationship: Compared to the sedentary group, moderate, high, and vigorous exercise groups exhibited significantly reduced death risks of 28%, 35%, and 42%, respectively. Exercise score showed a significant negative correlation with mortality rate (r=-0.855). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed significant divergence in survival curves among different exercise frequency groups (log-rank P<0.001), with the vigorous exercise group demonstrating the highest cumulative survival rate. Age-stratified analysis indicated that patients aged ≤65 years had the most favorable survival prognosis, while survival rates significantly decreased with advancing age (log-rank P< 0.001).

Conclusion

Higher frequency physical exercise manifested a protective association with reduced all-cause mortality risk in stroke patients, with a clear dose-response relationship. These findings support incorporating regular moderate-to-high-frequency exercise into daily life to reduce the hazards of stroke and improve long-term prognosis.
目的:探讨日常生活中不同运动频率与脑卒中患者全因死亡风险的关系,并分析两者的量效关系。方法:从健康与退休研究(HRS)数据库中选取1639例脑卒中患者。根据体育锻炼频率问卷,参与者被分为五组:久坐(n=152),低(n=276),中等(n=212),高(n=205)和剧烈(n=794)。应用多变量Cox比例风险回归模型和生存分析来检验卒中患者运动频率与全因死亡风险之间的关系。结果:中位随访时间显示,随着运动频率的增加,中位生存时间和四分位间距逐渐增加。多变量Cox回归分析显示了显著的剂量-反应关系:与久坐组相比,中度、高强度和剧烈运动组的死亡风险分别显著降低了28%、35%和42%。运动评分与死亡率呈显著负相关(r=-0.855)。Kaplan-Meier生存分析显示,不同运动频率组的生存曲线存在显著差异(log-rank P < 0.001),剧烈运动组的累积生存率最高。年龄分层分析显示,年龄≤65岁的患者生存预后最有利,随着年龄的增长,生存率显著降低(log-rank P < 0.001)。结论:高频率的体育锻炼与降低脑卒中患者全因死亡风险具有保护作用,且存在明显的剂量-反应关系。这些发现支持在日常生活中加入定期的中高频率运动,以减少中风的危险,改善长期预后。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Stroke & Cerebrovascular Diseases
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