Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics最新文献

How do output prices respond to trade shocks? Using detailed firm-product level data on sales and quantity between 1996 and 2007, we study the causal effect of Chinese import competition on prices for Indian manufacturing firms. We find that Chinese import competition induces a significant decline in firm-product prices. A 1 percentage point increase in the Chinese import penetration ratio reduces firm-product prices by 3.5%. Further, this decline in prices is driven by a decline in markup, conditional on costs, as opposed to the pass through of cost savings to prices – providing evidence for pro-competitive effect. This decline in prices and markup is less pronounced for firms owned by Business Groups compared to stand-alone, privately owned firms. We also document a large decrease in marginal costs and an increase in markup with no significant effect on prices for firms on account of increased access to imported Chinese inputs.

This study examines the influence of global and country factors on inflation movements in Korea using a multi-level factor model. Our results indicate that country factors showed a more pronounced alignment with inflation in Korea up to the mid-2000s, having particularly strong impacts around the Asian financial crisis. Beyond the mid-2000s, global factors played a more influential role in shaping inflation. This increased influence of global factors on inflation became particularly apparent during the notable inflationary surge following the COVID-19 pandemic. We construct structural models to identify global and country shocks and find that the effect of global shocks persists for a longer period, whereas the immediate impact of country shocks is more pronounced. Global shocks have a greater influence on producer price index and import price index inflation compared to consumer price index (CPI) or core CPI inflation. We further find that energy prices closely correlate with global factors, while exchange rates are highly correlated with country factors in Korea.

The literature on the effects of country risk premium shocks has largely focused on emerging market economies. We empirically show that in developed economies, risk premium shocks explain a non-trivial share of aggregate fluctuations and are key drivers of real activity during crises. Our empirical results and results from a two-country New Keynesian model indicate that an increase in the risk premium leads to a reduction in aggregate output under monetary union, but not so in countries with flexible exchange rates and independent monetary policy. Model simulations suggest that managing international capital flows enhances welfare in countries under monetary union.

This paper assembles a comprehensive sovereign green bond database and estimates the sovereign greenium. The development of green bond markets has been one of the most important financial breakthroughs in the domain of sustainable finance during the last 15 years. A central pecuniary benefit for green bond issuers has been that these bonds exhibit a positive green premium (greenium), that is, a lower yield relative to a similar conventional bond. Yet, issuances at the sovereign level have been relatively recent and not well documented in the literature. We find that green bonds are issued at a relatively small premium (4 basis points on average) in Advanced Economies. Yet, importantly, the greenium is growing over time and is considerably larger (11 basis points on average) for Emerging Market Economies.

We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from $��-�$0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.

This paper uses OECD data to examine whether winning the men's FIFA World Cup boosts GDP growth, as claimed by analysts and media outlets concomitantly with every edition of this football competition. By implementing both an event-study design and a synthetic difference-in-difference strategy, the analysis shows that winning the World Cup increases year-over-year GDP growth by at least 0.48 percentage points in the two subsequent quarters. This result seems primarily driven by enhanced export growth, which is consistent with a greater appeal enjoyed by national products and services on the global market after victory in a major sporting event.

The consumption carbon intensity – defined as the carbon emissions per unit of consumption – varies with age: it is hump-shaped over the life cycle, but becomes flatter at high levels of income. We document this novel fact using US household-level consumption data. This relationship holds not only at the individual level, but also at the aggregate: we leverage information across US states and countries all around the world to show that the carbon intensity of the economy depends on the population age structure. Consequently, policy changes that alter carbon prices affect relatively more middle-age individuals, and especially so in low-income economies.

We forecast US inflation with a new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. Our method consists of decomposing the time series of inflation and its NKPC predictors into several frequency bands, forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation, and then summing up those forecasts to obtain the forecast for aggregate inflation. We find that (i) accurately forecasting the low frequency of inflation is, on average, crucial to successfully forecast inflation; (ii) our NKPC low-frequency forecast model consistently and significantly outperforms the time-series NKPC and standard benchmark models; (iii) the low frequencies of inflation expectations and unemployment are the key predictors; and (iv) optimally switching on / off the forecasts of each frequency components of inflation at each period allows to outstandingly track inflation and show that all frequencies of inflation matter.

Standard recession forecasting based on economic indicators has become unsettled due to COVID-19 pandemic's limited but influential data. This paper proposes a new non-parametric approach to computing predictive probabilities of future recessions that is robust to influential observations and other data irregularities. The method simulates forecasts using past data histories embedded into a symbolic space. Then, the forecasts are converted into probability statements, which are weighted by the forecast probabilities of their respective symbols. Using GDP data from G7, our proposal outperforms other parametric approaches in classifying future national business cycle phases, especially including data from 2020 in the sample.