Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics最新文献

In the analysis of the Griliches' knowledge capital production function, previous works pointed out the relevance of incorporating slope heterogeneity in the technological parameters, cross-sectional dependence arising simultaneously from common factors and spillovers, and possible nonlinear effects of relevant common observed variables. In order to solve the above problems, in this article we introduce a semi-parametric model in a partially linear form that copes simultaneously with all the previous specification issues. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are obtained and the theoretical findings are further supported for small samples via several Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application.

This paper documents the role of unemployment and earnings risk in reconciling evidence in payoff differentials between self-employment and paid-employment. Using Spanish administrative data, we characterize the distribution and dynamics of earnings and document lower and less dispersed earnings in self-employment. We consider alternative hypotheses and highlight the role of lower unemployment risk in self-employment. We decompose earnings risk dynamics by estimating a life-cycle earnings process. Indeed, the self-employed experience lower returns but also face lower volatility and persistence of shocks throughout their life-cycle. Our results challenge the conventional view that self-employment necessarily entails higher risk and highlight that accounting for differences in labour earnings risk is important to reconcile the payoff differentials between self-employment and paid-employment.

The Bologna reform, the largest European education reform, was implemented in Russia in 2011. The reform shortened the duration of some undergraduate programmes by 1 year and compressed their curricula. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find that the reform had no short- or medium-term adverse effects on employment. However, I find that null average effects on wages mask considerable heterogeneity. I find that female students with high relative returns worked less during their studies, invested in their human capital, and secured stable wages. In contrast, male students with low relative returns underinvested in human capital and experienced a decline in wages.

The paper quantifies how much of the reduction in Spanish trade flows with the UK after the 2016 Brexit referendum was diverted to other markets. To obtain reliable estimates of trade diversion we regress firm-level changes in flows with all markets except the UK on changes in flows with the UK. In order to solve the positive correlation of trade flows between different markets we use the Brexit referendum as part of our instrumental variable. We then treat firms as units subjected to differential uncertainty shocks according to their initial patterns of sector and trade specialization. In particular, the referendum date is interacted with potential sectoral tariffs and pre-referendum firm-level exposure to the UK. The paper shows a close to full trade diversion for exports, mostly to other European countries, for those firms more exposed to that particular market (above 10%) and a heterogeneous response on the part of Spanish firms with low exposure (below 10%). Trade diversion for imports is weaker but the results are less robust. Given a particular share of exposure to the UK market, trade diversion appears to be more limited for big companies in comparison to small companies.

The Phillips curve began life in 1958 as a simple curve-fitted relationship between the rates of wage inflation and unemployment and went on to play a crucial role in the broader development of macroeconomics, giving rise to several controversies about its interpretation and role in policy-making. Recently, the traditional narrative about its theoretical underpinnings has been called into question as a sequence of ‘stories’ to provide support for particular theoretical perspectives on macroeconomics. The primary aim of this paper is to challenge the conventional wisdom relating to the Phillips curve being an attested empirical relationship, by showing that the empirical evidence of the most influential papers that helped to frame the traditional narrative is untrustworthy, in the sense that the probabilistic assumptions invoked by their inferences are invalid. That is, not only the traditional theory-driven narrative is misleading, but the empirical evidence used to corroborate it is untrustworthy.

Implementation lags are a concern of policymakers as they may reduce the efficacy of fiscal policy. Using a standard New Keynesian model with an effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, we compare the impacts of fiscal stimulus on output across various lengths of implementation lag. We show that despite concerns among policymakers, implementation lags may enhance the efficacy of government purchases on output when the economy is caught in a liquidity trap.

Multivariate analysis can help to focus on important phenomena, including trend and cyclical movements, but any economic information in seasonality is typically ignored. The present paper aims to more fully exploit time series information through a multivariate unobserved component model for quarterly data that exhibits seasonality together with cross-variable component correlations. We show that economic restrictions, including common trends, common cycles and common seasonals can aid identification. The approach is illustrated using Italian GDP and consumption data.

How do government counterinsurgency efforts affect local public health financing during civil conflicts? We investigate this question in the context of the protracted conflict in Colombia. Using data on antinarcotics operations and health transfers from the central government to municipal governments, we employ both panel estimations and an instrumental variable to address concerns of endogeneity. We first show evidence of a government discretionary power over the allocation of health transfers. We do not find evidence that counterinsurgency operations causally affect health transfers to municipalities. Our results rule out political alignment between mayors and the national governing party as an intermediary factor that could influence the flow of fiscal transfers in municipalities exposed to the conflict.

Boom-and-bust cycles in the housing market pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability, thus calling for a timely assessment of imbalances. This work sheds light on the drivers of house price dynamics in some euro area economies, investigating the risks of overheating. We show that an Error-Correction-Model (ECM) featuring a long-run relationship between house prices and income and short-run effects of interest rates and housing supply fits the data well in most cases. We then propose a novel model-based misalignment indicator and find that extrapolative house price expectations play an important role in the build-up of speculative bubbles.

This paper investigates the causal effects of grandmothers' geographical proximity on labour supply decisions of married women with young children by leveraging a novel data set from Turkey. We deal with the reverse causality and endogeneity problems arising from mothers' and grandmothers' joint location and labour supply decisions by implementing a two-stage least squares estimation method using the number of alive grandmothers as an instrument. We argue that grandmothers' proximity can increase mothers' labour supply through their free and flexible childcare services. On the other hand, geographically close grandmothers can reduce mothers' labour supply by imposing the traditional gender norms prevalent in Turkey or requiring them to take on elderly caregiving duties. The overall effect depends on the relative size of these opposing factors. Our findings suggest that living in the same neighbourhood as grandmothers increases the probability of labour force participation and the employment rates of women with young children by 18.2 ppt and 16.4 ppt, respectively. These results are mostly driven by the non-village sample. The ‘traditional gender norm’ channel explains the insignificant impact of grandmothers' proximity on the labour market outcomes of mothers who have been raised in villages.