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Willingness to pay for expanded non-invasive prenatal screening - An online discrete choice experiment from the perspective of women living in Western Australia. 为扩大无创产前筛查付费的意愿--从西澳大利亚妇女的角度进行的在线离散选择实验。
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13858
Sarah Long, Peter O'Leary, Richard Norman, Jan E Dickinson

Introduction: Ongoing advances in genetic technology may soon provide prenatal screening for multiple genetic conditions.

Aims: The aims were to investigate what prenatal screening test characteristics women prioritise and their willingness to pay for these tests.

Methods: We designed an online survey incorporating a series of discrete choice scenarios. Dimensions and levels were selected based on existing prenatal tests and a hypothetical prenatal test that could non-invasively detect multiple genetic disorders in pregnancy. Participants were recruited from social media platforms. Data were analysed using conditional logistic regression and latent class analysis (LCA).

Results: A total of 219 women completed the survey. Women with higher incomes and those with a tertiary education were willing to pay more than other groups. The maximum willingness to pay was AUD1870 (95% confidence interval: 1630, 2112) for a hypothetical non-invasive test to detect multiple genetic conditions in early pregnancy. An LCA demonstrated considerable heterogeneity in preferences, differing in both overall preference for testing and test characteristics considered most attractive. Among the participants, decision factors cited by 14.5% of participants were the risk of pregnancy loss, making them less likely to undergo testing; for 32.1% participants, accuracy was a major factor, and they were very likely to have testing; for 12.9%, test availability early in pregnancy was a decision factor.

Conclusions: If a non-invasive test that could detect the greatest number of genetic disorders in pregnancy was available, the priorities were test accuracy, risk of pregnancy loss and a test available early in pregnancy.

导言:目的:本研究旨在调查妇女优先考虑的产前筛查测试特征以及她们愿意为这些测试付费的意愿:我们设计了一项在线调查,其中包含一系列离散选择情景。我们根据现有的产前检查和一种可无创伤检测妊娠期多种遗传疾病的假设产前检查来选择维度和水平。参与者是从社交媒体平台上招募的。数据采用条件逻辑回归和潜类分析(LCA)进行分析:共有 219 名妇女完成了调查。与其他群体相比,收入较高和受过高等教育的女性愿意支付更多费用。对于检测孕早期多种遗传病的假设无创检测,最高支付意愿为 1870 澳元(95% 置信区间:1630-2112)。一项 LCA 显示,受试者的偏好存在相当大的异质性,他们对检测的总体偏好和认为最有吸引力的检测特征都不尽相同。在参与者中,14.5% 的参与者提到的决定因素是妊娠损失的风险,这使他们不太可能接受检测;32.1% 的参与者认为准确性是一个主要因素,他们非常有可能接受检测;12.9% 的参与者认为在孕早期能否进行检测是一个决定因素:结论:如果有一种非侵入性检测方法可以检测出最多的妊娠遗传疾病,那么优先考虑的因素是检测的准确性、妊娠损失的风险和在妊娠早期进行检测。
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引用次数: 0
Routine transabdominal cervical length screening in mid-pregnancy for the prevention of preterm birth: Is it good enough to use as a screening test? 为预防早产而进行的孕中期常规经腹宫颈长度筛查:作为筛查测试是否足够好?
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13859
Michelle K Pedretti, Jan E Dickinson, Dorota A Doherty, John P Newnham

Background: Preterm birth (PTB) is a major pregnancy complication. There is evidence that a short cervical length in mid-pregnancy may predict women at increased risk of PTB.

Aims: To evaluate the utility of population-based, transabdominal cervical length (TACL) measurement screening in mid-pregnancy for PTB prediction in women.

Materials and methods: A transabdominal approach was initially performed, with a transvaginal (TVCL) approach offered when the TACL was <35 mm, could not be accurately measured, or the pregnancy had risk factors for PTB. TACL was compared to the directly related TVCL, when both were performed at the same assessment. Women with risk factors of PTB were included when they had both TACL and TVCL measurements performed at the same visit.

Results: Data were provided for 9355 singleton pregnancies from 13 participating imaging centres. A transabdominal approach was used in 9006 (96.3%), including 682 (7.3%) TVCL combined with TACL. There were 349 (3.7%) women who had TVCL only. The median TACL was longer (40 mm) than the TVCL (38 mm). In 682 paired TACL and TVCL measurements, TACL <35 mm correctly identified 96.2% of pregnancies with TVCL <25 mm, compared with 65.4% of cases when using a TACL <30 mm. A TVCL <25 mm occurred in 59 (0.6%) women. A TACL <35 mm was associated with birth <37 weeks of gestation in 12.1% of women and birth <32 weeks of gestation in 3.9%.

Conclusions: Universal TACL is a feasible option for population screening of cervical length in a low-risk population, progressing to TVCL if the TACL is <35 mm or the cervix cannot be transabdominally accurately measured.

背景:早产(PTB)是一种主要的妊娠并发症。目的:评估基于人群的经腹宫颈长度(TACL)测量筛查在孕中期预测女性早产风险的实用性:最初采用经腹方法,当 TACL 结果为阳性时再采用经阴道(TVCL)方法:13 个参与成像中心提供了 9355 例单胎妊娠的数据。9006例(96.3%)采用了经腹方法,其中682例(7.3%)采用了TVCL结合TACL的方法。有 349 名(3.7%)妇女只采用了 TVCL。TACL 的中位数(40 毫米)长于 TVCL(38 毫米)。结论:在低风险人群中进行宫颈长度筛查时,普及 TACL 是一个可行的选择。
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引用次数: 0
Characteristics of preterm births during COVID-19 mitigation measures. COVID-19 减缓措施期间早产儿的特征。
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13853
Yizhen Amy Liu, Alexia Matheson, Rochelle Sleaby, Brendan Mulcahy, Kirsten R Palmer, Ryan J Hodges, Ben W Mol, Atul Malhotra, Daniel L Rolnik

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, mitigation measures were associated with a reduction in preterm birth rates; while not clearly proven, this observation has sparked significant interest.

Aim: To understand the cause of this reduction by exploring the characteristics of preterm birth cohorts.

Material and methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study where we compared women who delivered preterm in three Melbourne maternity hospitals and conceived between November 2019 and February 2020 (mitigation measures-exposed cohort) to women who delivered preterm and conceived between November 2018 and February 2019 (non-exposed cohort). We compared maternal characteristics, pregnancy complications, antenatal interventions, intrapartum care, and indications for delivery.

Results: In the exposed cohort, 252/3129 women delivered preterm (8.1%), vs 298/3154 (9.4%) in the non-exposed cohort (odds ratio (OR) 0.84, 95% CI 0.70-1.00, P = 0.051). The baseline characteristic of two cohorts were comparable. Rates of spontaneous preterm labour (sPTL) without preterm pre-labour rupture of membranes (PPROM) were lower in the exposed cohort (13.1% vs 24.2%, OR 0.47, P = 0.001) while PPROM occurred more often (48.0% vs 35.6%, OR 1.67, P = 0.003). With a non-statistically significant prolongation of pregnancy in the cohort exposed to mitigation measures for both sPTL without PPROM (35.4 vs 34.9 weeks, P = 0.703) and PPROM (35.6 vs 34.9 weeks, P = 0.184). The rate of spontaneous labour after PPROM was higher in the exposed cohort compared to the non-exposed cohort (40.1% vs 24.1%, OR 2.09, P < 0.001).

Conclusion: The reduction in preterm delivery during mitigation measures may have been driven by a reduction in spontaneous labour without PPROM, which seemed to result in more PPROM later in pregnancy.

背景:材料与方法:我们进行了一项回顾性队列研究,比较了在墨尔本三家妇产医院分娩并在 2019 年 11 月至 2020 年 2 月期间受孕的早产妇女(采取缓解措施):我们进行了一项回顾性队列研究,将在墨尔本三家妇产医院分娩并在 2019 年 11 月至 2020 年 2 月期间受孕的早产妇女(采取缓解措施的队列)与在 2018 年 11 月至 2019 年 2 月期间分娩并受孕的早产妇女(未采取缓解措施的队列)进行了比较。我们比较了产妇特征、妊娠并发症、产前干预、产中护理和分娩指征:在暴露队列中,252/3129 名妇女早产(8.1%),而在非暴露队列中,298/3154 名妇女早产(9.4%)(几率比(OR)0.84,95% CI 0.70-1.00,P = 0.051)。两个组群的基线特征具有可比性。暴露人群中自发性早产(sPTL)和早产前胎膜破裂(PPROM)的发生率较低(13.1% vs 24.2%,OR 0.47,P = 0.001),而早产前胎膜破裂的发生率较高(48.0% vs 35.6%,OR 1.67,P = 0.003)。在未发生 PPROM 的 sPTL(35.4 周 vs 34.9 周,P = 0.703)和 PPROM(35.6 周 vs 34.9 周,P = 0.184)组群中,采取缓解措施的妊娠期延长无统计学意义。与非暴露队列相比,暴露队列在 PPROM 后的自然分娩率更高(40.1% vs 24.1%,OR 2.09,P 结语):在采取缓解措施期间,早产率下降的原因可能是未发生 PPROM 的自然分娩率下降,而这似乎会导致妊娠晚期发生更多的 PPROM。
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引用次数: 0
A survey of obstetric and gynaecology doctors at an Australian metropolitan tertiary hospital to understand their views, training and confidence in abortion care. 对澳大利亚大都市一家三级医院的妇产科医生进行调查,以了解他们对人工流产护理的看法、培训情况和信心。
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13852
Laura C Phung, Joanne M Said, Aekta Neel

Background: The barriers to comprehensive abortion care in Australian metropolitan tertiary hospitals are under-researched. Previous work has suggested that negative practitioner attitudes and lack of training may play a large role; however, this remains poorly understood.

Aim: The aim was to survey doctors practicing obstetrics and gynaecology to better understand their views, training experience and confidence in abortion care.

Method: The method involved a cross-sectional study via an anonymous survey at a single metropolitan tertiary hospital not providing substantive abortion services in Melbourne, Australia. Inclusion criterion was obstetric and gynaecology medical staff working at that hospital. Data were collected regarding views, training experiences and confidence in first-trimester medical and surgical abortion, and second-trimester surgical abortion. Data were analysed according to levels of training, categorised as RANZCOG (Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists) Fellows, prevocational/vocational trainees and general practitioner specialists.

Results: Sixty-one valid responses were received from 90 eligible participants (response rate 68%). An overwhelming majority (96%) supported abortion services. The majority of RANZCOG Fellows felt confident performing first-trimester surgical abortion (89%) and first-trimester medical abortion (71%); however, only half felt confident performing second-trimester surgical abortion (50%). Prevocational/vocational trainees were overall less confident but overwhelmingly expressed interest in gaining further experience in abortion.

Conclusion: Doctors are generally confident in providing first-trimester abortion services (medical or surgical) in the metropolitan tertiary setting. However, further work is required to understand ongoing barriers to comprehensive abortion care. There may also be a skills shortage for second-trimester surgical abortion, requiring significant improvements in abortion training.

背景:对澳大利亚大都市三级医院提供全面人工流产护理的障碍研究不足。目的:本研究旨在对妇产科医生进行调查,以更好地了解他们对人工流产护理的看法、培训经验和信心:方法:在澳大利亚墨尔本的一家不提供实质性人工流产服务的大都市三级医院中,通过匿名调查进行横断面研究。纳入标准是在该医院工作的妇产科医务人员。收集的数据涉及对第一胎药物和手术流产以及第二胎手术流产的看法、培训经验和信心。数据根据培训级别进行分析,分为澳大利亚和新西兰皇家妇产科学院研究员、职前/职后培训生和全科医生专家:从 90 名符合条件的参与者中收到了 61 份有效回复(回复率为 68%)。绝大多数人(96%)支持人工流产服务。大多数新西兰皇家妇产科协会会员对实施第一胎手术流产(89%)和第一胎药物流产(71%)充满信心;但只有一半人对实施第二胎手术流产(50%)充满信心。职前/职业受训人员总体上信心不足,但绝大多数表示有兴趣获得更多人工流产方面的经验:结论:在大都市的三级医疗机构中,医生普遍对提供第一胎人工流产服务(内科或外科)充满信心。然而,还需要进一步开展工作,以了解目前在提供全面人工流产护理方面存在的障碍。第二孕期手术流产也可能存在技能短缺的问题,因此需要大力加强流产培训。
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引用次数: 0
Australasian Recurrent Pregnancy Loss Clinical Management Guideline 2024 Part I. 澳大利亚复发性妊娠失败临床管理指南 2024 第一部分。
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13821
Adriana Suker, Ying Li, Danielle Robson, Anthony Marren

Guidelines for the investigation and management of recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) have been developed in Europe, USA and UK, but there is currently no Australasian guideline. The Australasian Certificate of Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility Consensus Expert Panel on Trial Evidence group has prepared a two-part guideline to provide guidance on the management of RPL. In Part I chromosomal, anatomical, and endocrine factors are outlined along with relevant recommendations for clinical management, levels of evidence and grades of consensus. In Part II thrombophilia, autoimmune factors, infective, inflammatory, and endometrial causes, environmental and lifestyle factors, male factor and unexplained causes will be outlined.

欧洲、美国和英国已经制定了复发性妊娠丢失(RPL)的调查和管理指南,但澳大利亚目前还没有相关指南。澳大拉西亚生殖内分泌学和不孕症共识专家组试验证据小组编写了一份由两部分组成的指南,为 RPL 的管理提供指导。第一部分概述了染色体、解剖和内分泌因素,以及临床管理的相关建议、证据水平和共识等级。第二部分将概述血栓性疾病、自身免疫因素、感染、炎症和子宫内膜原因、环境和生活方式因素、男性因素和不明原因。
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引用次数: 0
Australasian recurrent pregnancy loss clinical management guideline 2024, part II. 澳大拉西亚复发性妊娠失败临床管理指南 2024,第二部分。
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13820
Adriana Suker, Ying Li, Danielle Robson, Anthony Marren

Part II of the Australasian guideline for the investigation and management of recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) provides evidence-based guidance on the management of RPL provided. The implications of inherited and acquired thrombophilia with respect to RPL and suggestions for clinical management are provided. Autoimmune factors, including human leukocyte antigen, cytokines, antinuclear antibodies and coeliac antibodies, and guidance for management are discussed. Infective, inflammatory and endometrial causes of RPL are discussed in detail. Environmental and lifestyle factors, male factor and unexplained causes are outlined. Levels of evidence and grades of consensus are provided for all evidence-based statements.

澳大利亚复发性妊娠丢失(RPL)调查和管理指南》第二部分为 RPL 的管理提供了循证指导。提供了遗传性和获得性血栓性疾病对 RPL 的影响以及临床管理建议。讨论自身免疫因素,包括人类白细胞抗原、细胞因子、抗核抗体和乳糜泻抗体,以及处理指南。详细讨论了 RPL 的感染、炎症和子宫内膜病因。概述了环境和生活方式因素、男性因素和不明原因。所有基于证据的声明都提供了证据等级和共识等级。
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引用次数: 0
Pelvic pain education - A short review on pelvic pain and endometriosis educational programs for adolescents. 盆腔疼痛教育 - 针对青少年的盆腔疼痛和子宫内膜异位症教育计划简评。
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13856
Hui Ping Adeline Thong, Amelia Kate Mardon, Susan Evans

Persistent pelvic pain is a significant healthcare concern among adolescents; however adolescents often have poor health literacy regarding their pain. Current school curricula fail to specifically address pelvic pain and management strategies. This review aims to summarise current pelvic pain education programs in Australian and New Zealand schools. These programs have successfully strengthened the understanding of the psychosocial impact of periods and pelvic pain, instilled greater confidence in managing persistent pain and have allowed for prompt detection and treatment of pelvic pain in adolescents. An outcomes-driven, collaborative, and coordinated approach is needed to improve pelvic health educational interventions for adolescents.

持续性骨盆疼痛是青少年医疗保健中的一个重要问题;然而,青少年对其疼痛的健康知识往往知之甚少。目前的学校课程未能专门针对盆腔疼痛和管理策略。本综述旨在总结澳大利亚和新西兰学校目前开展的盆腔疼痛教育计划。这些项目成功地加强了人们对经期和盆腔疼痛的社会心理影响的了解,为处理持续性疼痛灌输了更大的信心,并能及时发现和治疗青少年盆腔疼痛。要改进针对青少年的盆腔健康教育干预措施,需要采取一种以结果为导向、协作和协调的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Levothyroxine may not adequately prepare hypothyroid women for controlled ovarian hyperstimulation. 左甲状腺素可能无法让甲状腺功能减退的女性为控制性卵巢过度刺激做好充分准备。
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13854
Rachel A Bradbury, Karen Byth, Howard C Smith

Background: Thyroid axis dysregulation during controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) is more pronounced in hypothyroid-treated women. Whether or not this leads to compromised thyroid hormone levels within the ovarian follicular fluid is not known.

Aims: To determine whether ovarian follicular thyroid hormone levels are compromised in adequately replaced hypothyroid women undergoing controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH), and/or influence cycle/pregnancy outcomes.

Materials and methods: Prospective cohort study involving 46 euthyroid (anti-thyroid peroxidase antibody negative) and 16 levothyroxine-replaced women with baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) <2.5 mIU/L attending their first COH cycle. Follicular fluid TSH, free triiodothyronine (T3) and free thyroxine (T4) were recorded at oocyte pick-up. Serum levels were measured at: (i) baseline; (ii) human chorionic gonadotropin trigger day; and (iii) cycle conclusion. The number of mature oocytes retrieved, fertilisation, early pregnancy loss and live birth rates were compared.

Results: Median serum TSH levels were similar at baseline (1.76 vs 1.24 mIU/L, P = 0.053), but free T3 levels were lower (4.5 vs 4.8 pmol/L, P = 0.029) in levothyroxine-replaced compared to euthyroid women, with serum TSH levels increasing across ovarian stimulation (P = 0.006) into pregnancy testing (P = 0.030). Follicular fluid free T3 levels were lower in levothyroxine-replaced women (median 4.3 vs 4.6 pmol/L, P = 0.032). Fertilisation rates were lower (52% vs 71%, P = 0.043) in women requiring levothyroxine replacement, but numbers of mature oocytes retrieved, early pregnancy loss and live births did not differ.

Conclusion: Adequately replaced hypothyroid women achieve lower ovarian follicular fluid free T3 levels and poorer fertilisation rates compared to euthyroid women undergoing COH. Optimising T3 levels may be pivotal in improving COH outcomes in hypothyroid women.

背景:在控制性卵巢过度刺激(COH)过程中,甲状腺轴失调在甲状腺功能减退的妇女中更为明显。目的:确定接受控制性卵巢过度刺激(COH)治疗的甲状腺功能减退妇女的卵巢滤泡甲状腺激素水平是否会受到影响,以及/或者是否会影响周期/妊娠结局:前瞻性队列研究,涉及 46 名甲状腺功能正常(抗甲状腺过氧化物酶抗体阴性)和 16 名左甲状腺素替代妇女,其基线促甲状腺激素(TSH)结果:中位血清促甲状腺激素基线水平相似(1.76 vs 1.24 mIU/L,P = 0.053),但与甲状腺功能正常的妇女相比,置换左甲状腺素的妇女的游离 T3 水平较低(4.5 vs 4.8 pmol/L,P = 0.029),血清促甲状腺激素水平在卵巢刺激(P = 0.006)和妊娠检测(P = 0.030)期间均有所上升。替换左甲状腺素的女性卵泡液游离 T3 水平较低(中位数为 4.3 vs 4.6 pmol/L,P = 0.032)。需要替换左甲状腺素的女性受精率较低(52% vs 71%,P = 0.043),但取回的成熟卵母细胞数量、早孕损失和活产率并无差异:结论:与接受 COH 的甲状腺功能正常的妇女相比,得到充分替代的甲状腺功能减退妇女的卵泡液游离 T3 水平较低,受精率较低。优化T3水平可能是改善甲减女性COH结果的关键。
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引用次数: 0
SOMANZ position statement for the investigation and management of sepsis in pregnancy 2023. 新西兰卫生部关于 2023 年妊娠败血症调查和管理的立场声明。
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13848
Lucy Bowyer, Briony A Cutts, Helen L Barrett, Kendall Bein, Timothy M Crozier, Jessica Gehlert, Michelle L Giles, Jennifer Hocking, Sandra Lowe, Karin Lust, Angela Makris, Mark R Morton, Tara Pidgeon, Joanne Said, Helen L Tanner, Lucille Wilkinson, Maggie Wong

Background: The Society of Australia and New Zealand (SOMANZ) published its first sepsis in pregnancy and the postpartum period guideline in 2017 (Aust N Z J Obstet Gynaecol, 57, 2017, 540). In the intervening 6 years, maternal mortality from sepsis has remained static.

Aims: To update clinical practice with a review of the subsequent literature. In particular, to review the definition and screening tools for the diagnosis of sepsis.

Materials and methods: A multi-disciplinary group of clinicians with experience in all aspects of the care of pregnant women analysed the clinical evidence according to the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) system following searches of Cochrane, Medline and EMBASE. Where there were conflicting views, the authors reviewed the topic and came to a consensus. All authors reviewed the final position statement.

Results: This position statement has abandoned the use of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA) score to diagnose sepsis due to its poor performance in clinical practice. Whilst New Zealand has a national maternity observation chart, in Australia maternity early warning system charts and vital sign cut-offs differ between states. Rapid recognition, early antimicrobials and involvement of senior staff remain essential factors to improving outcomes.

Conclusion: Ongoing research is required to discover and validate tools to recognize and diagnose sepsis in pregnancy. Australia should follow New Zealand and have a single national maternity early warning system observation chart.

背景:澳大利亚和新西兰协会(SOMANZ)于 2017 年发布了第一份妊娠期和产后败血症指南(Aust N Z J Obstet Gynaecol, 57, 2017, 540)。在这 6 年间,败血症导致的孕产妇死亡率一直保持不变。目的:通过回顾后续文献,更新临床实践。材料与方法:一个由具有孕妇护理各方面经验的多学科临床医生组成的小组,在对 Cochrane、Medline 和 EMBASE 进行检索后,根据 GRADE(建议评估、发展和评价分级)系统对临床证据进行了分析。对于存在冲突的观点,作者们对该主题进行了审查,并达成了共识。所有作者都审阅了最终的立场声明:由于快速器官功能衰竭评估评分(qSOFA)在临床实践中表现不佳,该立场声明放弃了使用该评分来诊断败血症。新西兰制定了全国孕产妇观察图表,而澳大利亚各州的孕产妇预警系统图表和生命体征临界值各不相同。快速识别、及早使用抗菌药物和高级员工的参与仍是改善预后的关键因素:结论:需要持续开展研究,以发现并验证识别和诊断妊娠期败血症的工具。澳大利亚应效仿新西兰,建立单一的全国孕产妇预警系统观察图。
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引用次数: 0
Australia's fertility rate and the future 澳大利亚的生育率与未来
IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13847
Clare Boothroyd, Katharine Bassett, Stephen Robson

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australia's health system, the economy and social cohesion of the country are still felt but effect on birth rates and future generations is of profound significance. During the first year of the pandemic the news was particularly grim: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data1 revealed that 3 00 000 babies were born for the first time since 2007, and the estimated total fertility rate (TFR—the total number of children born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years) had fallen to 1.58, the lowest in Australia's history and representing a fall of 56% from the peak in 1961 (when the TFR reached 3.55).

A slight rebound in the number of babies born was observed in 2021—perhaps the result of people delaying pregnancy rather than abandoning the idea altogether—the situation again appeared grim with the release of the 2022 birth statistics. Australia's TFR has remained below 1.7 since before the pandemic, the longest period in the nation's history.2 The results prompted calls from former Australian Federal Treasurer Peter Costello—architect of the ‘Baby Bonus’ initiatives of the early 2000s—to call for new policy measures to increase Australia's birth rate.3 Yet while the pandemic appears to have exacerbated the ‘baby bust,’ the pre-pandemic year 2019 also had an historical low TFR of 1.66 babies per woman. Indeed, Australia's birth rate had been in established decline well before the pandemic (Fig. 1). Putting this in a global context, too, the fall in fertility rates seen in Australia is hardly unique: across the globe birth rates and resulting TFR estimates have been in decline since the 1960s (Fig. 2).

Population is influenced by births, life-expectancy and immigration. Immigration has boosted the availability of human capital, and stimulated the economy in Australia but the contribution of immigration to long-term population growth remains uncertain. Studies suggest that migrants commonly have, as a group, higher TFRs,4 yet this has not proven to be the case in Australia: ABS data reveal that the fertility rates of overseas-born mothers have been lower than those of Australian-born mothers since 2007 (Fig. 3).

Estimates of the TFR allow comparison with a second important metric—the replacement fertility rate (RFR): the TFR at which newborn girls would have an average of exactly one daughter over their lifetime. The RFR is important because it represents the rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next. In high-income countries replacement-level fertility requires an average of 2.1 children per woman. In countries with high infant and child mortality rates, the average number of births may need to be much greater. Replacement-level fertility rates will keep a country's population steady but will not lead to population growth i

COVID-19 大流行对澳大利亚卫生系统、经济和社会凝聚力的影响仍在持续,但对出生率和后代的影响却意义深远。在大流行病爆发的第一年,情况尤为严峻:澳大利亚统计局(ABS)的数据1 显示,自 2007 年以来首次减少了 300,000 名婴儿的出生,估计总和生育率(TFR--如果每位妇女活到生育年龄结束,她所生子女的总数)降至 1.58,为澳大利亚历史上最低。2021 年,出生婴儿数量略有回升--这或许是人们推迟怀孕而非完全放弃这一想法的结果--但随着 2022 年出生统计数据的公布,形势再次变得严峻起来。2 这一结果促使澳大利亚前联邦财政部长彼得-科斯特洛(Peter Costell)--2000 年代初 "婴儿红利 "计划的倡导者--呼吁采取新的政策措施来提高澳大利亚的出生率。3 然而,尽管疫情似乎加剧了 "婴儿萧条",但在疫情爆发前的 2019 年,澳大利亚的总生育率也达到了历史最低水平,即每名妇女生育 1.66 个婴儿。事实上,早在疫情发生之前,澳大利亚的出生率就已经开始下降(图 1)。从全球范围来看,澳大利亚生育率的下降也并非绝无仅有:自 20 世纪 60 年代以来,全球的出生率和由此产生的总生育率估计值一直在下降(图 2)。移民增加了人力资本的供应,刺激了澳大利亚的经济,但移民对长期人口增长的贡献仍不确定。研究表明,作为一个群体,移民的总生育率通常较高,4 但事实证明澳大利亚的情况并非如此:澳大利亚统计局的数据显示,自 2007 年以来,海外出生母亲的生育率一直低于澳大利亚出生母亲的生育率(图 3)。对总和生育率的估计可以与第二个重要指标--更替生育率(RFR)--进行比较。替代生育率之所以重要,是因为它代表了人口从一代到下一代的精确替代率。在高收入国家,更替水平的生育率要求每个妇女平均生育 2.1 个孩子。在婴儿和儿童死亡率较高的国家,平均生育数量可能需要大得多。更替水平的生育率将使一个国家的人口保持稳定,但如果死亡率保持不变且移民没有影响,则不会导致人口增长。目前,几乎所有高收入国家的总和生育率都远低于更替水平,人口增长依赖于移民。移民一般不是新生儿,因此基于移民的人口增长会扭曲人口的年龄分布,使人口金字塔向老年人倾斜,从而导致老年人在人口中的比例不断增加。在澳大利亚财政部于 2021 年发布的最新代际报告6 中,对出生率下降对澳大利亚经济的影响作了如下阐述:预计未来 40 年澳大利亚经济增长速度将低于过去 40 年......人口增长放缓是经济增长预期放缓的主要原因。财政部的评论是基于这样的担忧:"在一份代际报告中,人口预测首次被下调。人口老龄化会产生一系列公认的、相互关联的影响:对社会服务的需求增加;对医疗保健的需求增加;对养老金的需求增加;劳动力供应减少,劳动力市场中老年人的生产率可能降低;年轻人口的失业率可能降低。澳大利亚政府人口中心报告的 2021 年调查8 列出了方框 1 中排名最高的十个因素。妇女的教育水平与子女数量之间存在着密切的负相关关系。这可能至少在一定程度上反映出,受教育的时间往往会推迟生育第一胎的年龄--第一胎生得越晚,以后再生育的机会就越少。生活在城市地区的妇女更有可能拥有一个较小的家庭。 社会需要促进充分的社会变革,以支持希望优化生育的妇女。这些社会变革需要以明确承认生育选择权和一些妇女可能不希望生育为基础。然而,只有支持那些希望生育的妇女,才能取得最大的收益。世界各地的案例研究表明,低垂的果实所剩无几,也没有简单的答案。婴儿潮 "是人类历史上从未遇到过的独特的生存危机。为了克服这一危机,我们必须具有适应力和洞察力。让我们集思广益,找到最佳解决方案,避免重蹈某些国家的覆辙,并向那些将总生育率维持在 2.1 或 2.1 左右的国家学习。在这个问题上,我们都是利益相关者,应该为最终的游戏、长期的游戏而努力。让我们将此作为我们政治议程的一部分。
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Australian & New Zealand Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology
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