Pub Date : 2017-04-08DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0014-9
S. Smirnov, N. Kondrashov, Anna V. Petronevich
{"title":"Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices","authors":"S. Smirnov, N. Kondrashov, Anna V. Petronevich","doi":"10.1007/s41549-017-0014-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-017-0014-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"116 1","pages":"53 - 73"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79733781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-03-10DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0012-y
Carlo Gianelle, Letizia Montinari, S. Salotti
{"title":"Interregional Trade, Specialization, and the Business Cycle: Policy Implications for the EMU","authors":"Carlo Gianelle, Letizia Montinari, S. Salotti","doi":"10.1007/s41549-017-0012-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-017-0012-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"1 - 27"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84320605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-01DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0011-4
P. Stalder
{"title":"Exchange Rate Shocks, Monetary Policy and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Housing Market: An Econometric Analysis for Switzerland","authors":"P. Stalder","doi":"10.1007/s41549-016-0011-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-016-0011-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"5 1","pages":"217 - 251"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79653656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper considers the usefulness of diffusion indexes in identifying and predicting business cycle turning points in real time using a large data set from March 2005 to September 2014. We construct a monthly diffusion index, compare several smoothing and signal extraction methods, and evaluate predictions based on our index. We document the performance of diffusion-index-based forecasts and compare it against the performance of dynamic-factor-model-based forecasts. Our findings suggest that diffusion indexes remain relevant and effective in identifying turning points. In addition, we show that a diffusion index could outperform a dynamic factor model in identifying the onset of the 2008 recession in real time.
{"title":"Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set","authors":"Yongchen Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2839879","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2839879","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the usefulness of diffusion indexes in identifying and predicting business cycle turning points in real time using a large data set from March 2005 to September 2014. We construct a monthly diffusion index, compare several smoothing and signal extraction methods, and evaluate predictions based on our index. We document the performance of diffusion-index-based forecasts and compare it against the performance of dynamic-factor-model-based forecasts. Our findings suggest that diffusion indexes remain relevant and effective in identifying turning points. In addition, we show that a diffusion index could outperform a dynamic factor model in identifying the onset of the 2008 recession in real time.","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"47 1","pages":"1-21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73604492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-08-31DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0009-y
J. Sturm
{"title":"Editorial to the Relaunch Issue of the Journal of Business Cycle Research","authors":"J. Sturm","doi":"10.1007/s41549-016-0009-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-016-0009-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"12 1","pages":"1 - 2"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78436727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-08-24DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0007-0
Nopphawan Photphisutthiphong, M. Weder
{"title":"Observations on the Australian Business Cycle","authors":"Nopphawan Photphisutthiphong, M. Weder","doi":"10.1007/s41549-016-0007-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-016-0007-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"11 1","pages":"141 - 164"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74338942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-08-19DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0002-5
R. Lehmann, A. Weyh
{"title":"Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?","authors":"R. Lehmann, A. Weyh","doi":"10.1007/s41549-016-0002-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-016-0002-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"15 1","pages":"81 - 117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88257982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-08-18DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0008-z
Michal Franta, David Havrlant, Marek Rusňák
{"title":"Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models","authors":"Michal Franta, David Havrlant, Marek Rusňák","doi":"10.1007/s41549-016-0008-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-016-0008-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"59 1","pages":"165 - 185"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77880589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-08-16DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0005-2
Jennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements, D. Hendry
{"title":"An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks","authors":"Jennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements, D. Hendry","doi":"10.1007/s41549-016-0005-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-016-0005-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"64 1","pages":"3 - 23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78272254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-08-12DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0003-4
L. Sella, G. Vivaldo, Andreas Groth, M. Ghil
{"title":"Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries","authors":"L. Sella, G. Vivaldo, Andreas Groth, M. Ghil","doi":"10.1007/s41549-016-0003-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-016-0003-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"67 1","pages":"25 - 48"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76521252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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