Background
The impact of knee replacement surgery on patients can be monitored by joint registries through the surveillance of prostheses and identification of under-performing devices – outliers. The study of new statistical methods can help determine whether a device is at a higher risk of failure by considering possible confounding factors. Self-learning algorithms with the potential to involve multiple variables simultaneously are one approach to limiting the impact of confounding factors. This study aimed to assess two machine learning (ML) techniques to detect total knee outliers while controlling for patient- and device-related confounding.
Methods
The potential to identify outliers among 160 unique prostheses was evaluated for Random Survival Forest (RSF) and regularised/unregularised Cox models. The input variables included femoral/tibial components and patient characteristics provided by the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR) on 265,655 primary total knee procedures. The outcome was time to first revision surgery treated as a censored case for death, and the AOANJRR gold standard was defined as the criteria to assess the effectiveness of proposed ML methods.
Results
In the study cohort, the AOANJRR standardised approach detected five conventional prosthesis combinations. Both the Cox and RSF techniques identified two of the same total knee prostheses. The regularised/unregularised Cox results were more comparable to the AOANJRR standard by detecting one additional prosthesis at a higher risk of revision.
Conclusion
Machine learning may offer a supplementary approach for the identification of prosthesis outliers. However, further analysis is required to fully comprehend the effect of confounding factors and the potential contribution of ML to the early identification of outliers.
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