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Effect of particle composition and consolidation degree on the wave-induced liquefaction of soil beds 颗粒成分和固结度对波浪诱导土床液化的影响
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2223-5
Zhiyuan Chen, Yupeng Ren, Guohui Xu, Meng Li

The wave-induced liquefaction of seabed is responsible for causing damage to marine structures. Particle composition and consolidation degree are the key factors affecting the pore water pressure response and liquefaction behavior of the seabed under wave action. The present study conducted wave flume experiments on silt and silty fine sand beds with varying particle compositions. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis of the differences and underlying reasons for liquefaction behavior in two different types of soil was conducted from both macroscopic and microscopic perspectives. The experimental results indicate that the silt bed necessitates a lower wave load intensity to attain the liquefaction state in comparison to the silty fine sand bed. Additionally, the duration and development depth of liquefaction are greater in the silt bed. The dissimilarity in liquefaction behavior between the two types of soil can be attributed to the variation in their permeability and plastic deformation capacity. The permeability coefficient and compression modulus of silt are lower than those of silty fine sand. Consequently, silt is more prone to the accumulation of pore pressure and subsequent liquefaction under external loading. Prior research has demonstrated that silt beds with varying consolidation degrees exhibit distinct initial failure modes. Specifically, a dense bed undergoes shear failure, whereas a loose bed experiences initial liquefaction failure. This study utilized discrete element simulation to examine the microscopic mechanisms that underlie this phenomenon.

波浪引起的海床液化会对海洋结构造成破坏。颗粒组成和固结程度是影响波浪作用下海床孔隙水压力响应和液化行为的关键因素。本研究对不同颗粒组成的淤泥和淤泥质细砂床进行了波浪水槽实验。此外,还从宏观和微观角度全面分析了两种不同类型土壤液化行为的差异和根本原因。实验结果表明,与淤泥质细砂床相比,淤泥床需要较低的波浪载荷强度才能达到液化状态。此外,淤泥床的液化持续时间和发展深度都更长。这两种土壤在液化行为上的差异可归因于其渗透性和塑性变形能力的不同。淤泥的渗透系数和压缩模量低于淤泥质细砂。因此,在外部荷载作用下,淤泥更容易积累孔隙压力,进而发生液化。先前的研究表明,不同固结度的淤泥床表现出不同的初始破坏模式。具体来说,致密的床层会发生剪切破坏,而松散的床层则会发生初始液化破坏。本研究利用离散元模拟来研究这种现象的微观机理。
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引用次数: 0
Simulated Indonesian Throughflow in Makassar Strait across the SODA3 products 模拟印尼马卡萨海峡穿越 SODA3 产品的通流情况
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2186-6
Tengfei Xu, Zexun Wei, Haifeng Zhao, Sheng Guan, Shujiang Li, Guanlin Wang, Fei Teng, Yongchui Zhang, Jing Wang

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which connects the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, plays important roles in the inter-ocean water exchange and regional or even global climate variability. The Makassar Strait is the main inflow passage of the ITF, carrying about 77% of the total ITF volume transport. In this study, we analyze the simulated ITF in the Makassar Strait in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 3 (SODA3) datasets. A total of nine ensemble members of the SODA3 datasets, of which are driven by different surface forcings and bulk formulas, and with or without data assimilation, are used in this study. The annual mean water transports (i.e., volume, heat and freshwater) are related to the combination of surface forcing and bulk formula, as well as whether data assimilation is employed. The phases of the seasonal and interannual variability in water transports cross the Makassar Strait, are basically consistent with each other among the SODA3 ensemble members. The interannual variability in Makassar Strait volume and heat transports are significantly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at time lags of −6 to 7 months. There is no statistically significant correlation between the freshwater transport and the ENSO. The Makassar Strait water transports are not significantly correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which may attribute to model deficiency in simulating the propagation of semiannual Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean to the Makassar Strait.

印度尼西亚洋流(ITF)连接着热带太平洋和印度洋,在洋间水交换和区域甚至全球气候变异中发挥着重要作用。望加锡海峡是 ITF 的主要流入通道,其水量约占 ITF 总水量的 77%。在本研究中,我们分析了简单海洋数据同化第三版(SODA3)数据集中的马卡萨海峡模拟 ITF。本研究共使用了 SODA3 数据集的九个集合成员,这些集合成员由不同的表面作用力和体积公式驱动,有的使用了数据同化,有的则未使用数据同化。年平均水输送量(即水量、热量和淡水)与地表强迫和总量公式的组合以及是否采用数据同化有关。穿越望加锡海峡的水输送量的季节和年际变化阶段在 SODA3 组合成员中基本一致。马卡萨海峡水量和热量输送的年际变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有显著相关性,时间滞后为-6 至 7 个月。淡水输送与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动在统计上没有明显的相关性。马卡萨海峡的海水输送与印度洋偶极子(IOD)没有明显的相关性,这可能是由于模式在模拟半年一次的开尔文波从印度洋向马卡萨海峡传播方面存在不足。
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引用次数: 0
The variation in basal channels and basal melt rates of Pine Island Ice Shelf 松岛冰架基底通道和基底融化率的变化
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2271-x
Mingliang Liu, Zemin Wang, Baojun Zhang, Xiangyu Song, Jiachun An

In recent years, there has been a significant acceleration in the thinning, calving and retreat of the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS). The basal channels, results of enhanced basal melting, have the potential to significantly impact the stability of the PIIS. In this study, we used a variety of remote sensing data, including Landsat, REMA DEM, ICESat-1 and ICESat-2 satellite altimetry observations, and IceBridge airborne measurements, to study the spatiotemporal changes in the basal channels from 2003 to 2020 and basal melt rate from 2010 to 2017 of the PIIS under the Eulerian framework. We found that the basal channels are highly developed in the PIIS, with a total length exceeding 450 km. Most of the basal channels are ocean-sourced or groundingline-sourced basal channels, caused by the rapid melting under the ice shelf or near the groundingline. A raised seabed prevented warm water intrusion into the eastern branch of the PIIS, resulting in a lower basal melt rate in that area. In contrast, a deep-sea trough facilitates warm seawater into the mainstream and the western branch of the PIIS, resulting in a higher basal melt rate in the main-stream, and the surface elevation changes above the basal channels of the mainstream and western branch are more significant. The El Niño event in 2015–2016 possibly slowed down the basal melting of the PIIS by modulating wind field, surface sea temperature and depth seawater temperature. Ocean and atmospheric changes were driven by El Niño, which can further explain and confirm the changes in the basal melting of the PIIS.

近年来,松岛冰架(PIIS)的变薄、断裂和后退速度明显加快。基底通道是基底融化增强的结果,有可能对松岛冰架的稳定性产生重大影响。在这项研究中,我们使用了多种遥感数据,包括陆地卫星、REMA DEM、ICESat-1 和 ICESat-2 卫星测高观测数据以及 IceBridge 机载测量数据,在欧拉框架下研究了松岛冰架 2003 至 2020 年基底通道的时空变化以及 2010 至 2017 年的基底融化率。我们发现,PIIS 的基底通道非常发达,总长度超过 450 公里。大部分基底通道为海洋源基底通道或接地线源基底通道,由冰架下或接地线附近的快速融化引起。隆起的海床阻止了暖水侵入冰架东支,导致该地区的基底融化率较低。相比之下,深海海槽有利于暖海水进入 PIIS 主流和西部支流,导致主流的基底融化率较高,主流和西部支流基底通道上方的地表高程变化更为显著。2015-2016 年的厄尔尼诺事件可能通过调节风场、表层海温和深层海水温度减缓了 PIIS 的基底融化。厄尔尼诺现象驱动的海洋和大气变化可以进一步解释和证实PIIS基底融化的变化。
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引用次数: 0
What induced the trend shift of mixed-layer depths in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region in the mid-1980s? 1980 年代中期南极环极洋流区域混合层深度趋势变化的诱因是什么?
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2268-5
Shan Liu, Jingzhi Su, Huijun Wang, Cuijuan Sui

An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region was detected during the 1960–2021 period. Shallowing trends stopped in mid-1980s, followed by a period of weak trends. The MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage, the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land, and the central parts of the South Indian sector. The newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian sector. The saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region.

1960-2021年期间,南极环极洋流(ACC)区域的年平均值和冬季混合层深度(MLD)出现了明显的趋势性变化。变浅趋势在 20 世纪 80 年代中期停止,随后是一个趋势较弱的时期。两个时期的 MLD 深化趋势差异主要分布在德雷克海峡西部地区、维多利亚陆地和威尔 克斯陆地以北地区以及南印度洋板块的中部地区。两个时期之间,由于 ACC 流轴的经向移动而新形成的洋流切变,是导致分布在德雷克海峡西部地区和南印度洋中部地区的 MLD 趋势变化的主要驱动力。维多利亚陆地和威尔克斯陆地以北地区的咸化趋势可能是该地区混合过程加强的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Predictability of the upper ocean heat content in a Community Earth System Model ensemble prediction system 群落地球系统模式集合预测系统中上层海洋热含量的可预测性
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-04-11 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2239-x
Ting Liu, Wenxiu Zhong

Upper ocean heat content (OHC) has been widely recognized as a crucial precursor to high-impact climate variability, especially for that being indispensable to the long-term memory of the ocean. Assessing the predictability of OHC using state-of-the-art climate models is invaluable for improving and advancing climate forecasts. Recently developed retrospective forecast experiments, based on a Community Earth System Model ensemble prediction system, offer a great opportunity to comprehensively explore OHC predictability. Our results indicate that the skill of actual OHC predictions varies across different oceans and diminishes as the lead time of prediction extends. The spatial distribution of the actual prediction skill closely resembles the corresponding persistence skill, indicating that the persistence of OHC serves as the primary predictive signal for its predictability. The decline in actual prediction skill is more pronounced in the Indian and Atlantic oceans than in the Pacific Ocean, particularly within tropical regions. Additionally, notable seasonal variations in the actual prediction skills across different oceans align well with the phase-locking features of OHC variability. The potential predictability of OHC generally surpasses the actual prediction skill at all lead times, highlighting significant room for improvement in current OHC predictions, especially for the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. Achieving such improvements necessitates a collaborative effort to enhance the quality of ocean observations, develop effective data assimilation methods, and reduce model bias.

人们普遍认为,上层海洋热含量(OHC)是影响巨大的气候变异性的重要前兆,尤其是对海洋的长期记忆不可或缺。利用最先进的气候模式评估上层海洋热含量的可预测性,对于改善和推进气候预报非常重要。最近开发的基于群落地球系统模式集合预测系统的回顾性预测实验为全面探索 OHC 的可预测性提供了一个很好的机会。我们的研究结果表明,实际 OHC 预测的技能在不同海洋中存在差异,并且随着预测准备时间的延长而减弱。实际预测技能的空间分布与相应的持续性技能非常相似,表明 OHC 的持续性是其可预测性的主要预测信号。实际预测技能的下降在印度洋和大西洋比在太平洋更为明显,特别是在热带地区。此外,不同大洋的实际预测能力存在明显的季节性差异,这与 OHC 变率的相位锁定特征十分吻合。在所有提前期,OHC 的潜在预测能力一般都超过实际预测能力,这表明目前的 OHC 预测还有很大的改进空间,尤其是北印度洋和大西洋。要实现这些改进,就必须共同努力,提高海洋观测质量,开发有效的数据同化方法,减少模式偏差。
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引用次数: 0
Fuzzy cluster analysis of water mass in the western Taiwan Strait in spring 2019 2019 年春季台湾海峡西部水团的模糊聚类分析
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2286-3
Zhiyuan Hu, Jia Zhu, Longqi Yang, Zhenyu Sun, Xin Guo, Zhaozhang Chen, Linfeng Huang

The classification of the springtime water mass has an important influence on the hydrography, regional climate change and fishery in the Taiwan Strait. Based on 58 stations of CTD profiling data collected in the western and southwestern Taiwan Strait during the spring cruise of 2019, we analyze the spatial distributions of temperature (T) and salinity (S) in the investigation area. Then by using the fuzzy cluster method combined with the T-S similarity number, we classify the investigation area into 5 water masses: the Minzhe Coastal Water (MZCW), the Taiwan Strait Mixed Water (TSMW), the South China Sea Surface Water (SCSSW), the South China Sea Subsurface Water (SCSUW) and the Kuroshio Branch Water (KBW). The MZCW appears in the near surface layer along the western coast of Taiwan Strait, showing low-salinity (<32.0) tongues near the Minjiang River Estuary and the Xiamen Bay mouth. The TSMW covers most upper layer of the investigation area. The SCSSW is mainly distributed in the upper layer of the southwestern Taiwan Strait, beneath which is the SCSUW. The KBW is a high temperature (core value of 26.36°C) and high salinity (core value of 34.62) water mass located southeast of the Taiwan Bank and partially in the central Taiwan Strait.

春季水团的划分对台湾海峡的水文地理、区域气候变化和渔业有重要影响。基于 2019 年春季巡航期间在台湾海峡西部和西南部采集的 58 站 CTD 剖面数据,分析了调查区温度(T)和盐度(S)的空间分布。然后利用模糊聚类法结合 T-S 相似数,将调查区划分为 5 个水团:闽浙沿海水团(MZCW)、台湾海峡混合水团(TSMW)、南海表层水团(SCSSW)、南海次表层水团(SCSUW)和黑潮支流水团(KBW)。MZCW 出现在台湾海峡西岸的近表层,在闽江口和厦门湾口附近呈现低盐度(<32.0)舌状。TSMW覆盖了调查区的大部分上层。SCSSW主要分布在台湾海峡西南部上层,其下为SCSUW。KBW 为高温(核心值为 26.36°C)、高盐度(核心值为 34.62)水团,位于台湾岸东南部,部分位于台湾海峡中部。
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引用次数: 0
Gravity anomalies determined from mean sea surface model data over the Gulf of Mexico 根据墨西哥湾平均海面模型数据确定的重力异常现象
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2178-6
Xuyang Wei, Xin Liu, Zhen Li, Xiaotao Chang, Hongxin Luo, Chengcheng Zhu, Jinyun Guo

With the improvements in the density and quality of satellite altimetry data, a high-precision and high-resolution mean sea surface model containing abundant information regarding a marine gravity field can be calculated from long-time series multi-satellite altimeter data. Therefore, in this study, a method was proposed for determining marine gravity anomalies from a mean sea surface model. Taking the Gulf of Mexico (15°–32°N, 80°–100°W) as the study area and using a removal-recovery method, the residual gridded deflections of the vertical (DOVs) are calculated by combining the mean sea surface, mean dynamic topography, and XGM2019e_2159 geoid, and then using the inverse Vening-Meinesz method to determine the residual marine gravity anomalies from the residual gridded DOVs. Finally, residual gravity anomalies are added to the XGM2019e_2159 gravity anomalies to derive marine gravity anomaly models. In this study, the marine gravity anomalies were estimated with mean sea surface models CNES_CLS15MSS, DTU21MSS, and SDUST2020MSS and the mean dynamic topography models CNES_CLS18MDT and DTU22MDT. The accuracy of the marine gravity anomalies derived by the mean sea surface model was assessed based on ship-borne gravity data. The results show that the difference between the gravity anomalies derived by DTU21MSS and CNES_CLS18MDT and those of the ship-borne gravity data is optimal. With an increase in the distance from the coast, the difference between the gravity anomalies derived by mean sea surface models and ship-borne gravity data gradually decreases. The accuracy of the difference between the gravity anomalies derived by mean sea surface models and those from ship-borne gravity data are optimal at a depth of 3–4 km. The accuracy of the gravity anomalies derived by the mean sea surface model is high.

随着卫星测高数据密度和质量的提高,可以通过长时间序列的多卫星测高数据计算出包含丰富海洋重力场信息的高精度、高分辨率平均海面模型。因此,本研究提出了一种根据平均海面模型确定海洋重力异常的方法。以墨西哥湾(北纬 15°-32°,西经 80°-100°)为研究区域,采用去除-恢复法,结合平均海面、平均动态地形和 XGM2019e_2159 大地水准面,计算残差网格垂直偏转(DOVs),然后使用反 Vening-Meinesz 法,根据残差网格 DOVs 确定残差海洋重力异常。最后,将残余重力异常与 XGM2019e_2159 重力异常相加,得出海洋重力异常模型。本研究利用平均海面模型 CNES_CLS15MSS、DTU21MSS 和 SDUST2020MSS,以及平均动态地形模型 CNES_CLS18MDT 和 DTU22MDT 估算海洋重力异常。根据船载重力数据评估了平均海面模型得出的海洋重力异常的准确性。结果表明,DTU21MSS 和 CNES_CLS18MDT 得出的重力异常值与船载重力数据的重力异常值之差为最佳值。随着离海岸距离的增加,平均海面模型得出的重力异常与船载重力数据之间的差异逐渐减小。平均海面模型得出的重力异常值与船载重力数据得出的重力异常值之差的精度在水深 3-4 千米时最佳。平均海面模型得出的重力异常精度较高。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the interannual variability of the Kerama Gap transport and its relation to the Kuroshio/Ryukyu Current system 琦玉海沟海流的年际变化及其与黑潮/柳急海流系统的关系研究
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2281-8
Han Zhou, Kai Yu, Jianhuang Qin, Xuhua Cheng, Meixiang Chen, Changming Dong

An analysis of a 68-year monthly hindcast output from an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model reveals the relationship between the interannual variability of the Kerama Gap transport (KGT) and the Kuroshio/Ryukyu Current system. The study found a significant difference in the interannual variability of the upstream and downstream transports of the East China Sea- (ECS-) Kuroshio and the Ryukyu Current. The interannual variability of the KGT was found to be of paramount importance in causing the differences between the upstream and downstream ECS-Kuroshio. Additionally, it contributed approximately 37% to the variability of the Ryukyu Current. The interannual variability of the KGT was well described by a two-layer rotating hydraulic theory. It was dominated by its subsurface-intensified flow core, and the upper layer transport made a weaker negative contribution to the total KGT. The subsurface flow core was found to be mainly driven by the subsurface pressure head across the Kerama Gap, and the pressure head was further dominated by the subsurface density anomalies on the Pacific side. These density anomalies could be traced back to the eastern open ocean, and their propagation speed was estimated to be about 7.4 km/d, which is consistent with the speed of the local first-order baroclinic Rossby wave. When the negative (positive) density anomaly signal reached the southern region of the Kerama Gap, it triggered the increase (decrease) of the KGT towards the Pacific side and the formation of an anticyclonic (cyclonic) vortex by baroclinic adjustment. Meanwhile, there is an increase (decrease) in the upstream transport of the entire Kuroshio/Ryukyu Current system and an offshore flow that decreases (increases) the downstream Ryukyu Current.

通过对涡解海洋大环流模式 68 年月度后报输出结果的分析,揭示了 Kerama Gap 运输(KGT)与黑潮/琉球海流系统之间的年际变化关系。研究发现,中国东海黑潮和琉球洋流的上下游输送的年际变化存在显著差异。研究发现,KGT 的年际变化对造成东海-黑潮上下游之间的差异至关重要。此外,KGT 对琉球海流变化的影响约占 37%。双层旋转水力理论很好地描述了 KGT 的年际变化。KGT由其次表层强化流核心主导,上层输送对KGT总量的负贡献较弱。研究发现,次表层流核主要由横跨克拉玛依峡谷的次表层压头驱动,而太平洋一侧的次表层密度异常则进一步主导了压头。这些密度异常可以追溯到东部开阔洋,其传播速度估计约为 7.4 km/d,与当地一阶气压罗斯比波的速度一致。当负(正)密度异常信号到达克拉玛依峡谷南部地区时,引发了向太平洋一侧的 KGT 增(减),并在气压调整作用下形成了反气旋(气旋)涡。同时,整个黑潮/琉球洋流系统的上游输送增加(减少),离岸流减少(增加)了下游的琉球洋流。
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引用次数: 0
A case study of continental shelf waves in the northwestern South China Sea induced by winter storms in 2021 2021 年冬季风暴诱发的南海西北部大陆架波浪案例研究
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-023-2150-5
Junyi Li, Chen Zhou, Min Li, Quanan Zheng, Mingming Li, Lingling Xie

This study aims to investigate characteristics of continental shelf wave (CSW) on the northwestern continental shelf of the South China Sea (SCS) induced by winter storms in 2021. Mooring and cruise observations, tidal gauge data at stations Hong Kong, Zhapo and Qinglan and sea surface wind data from January 1 to February 28, 2021 are used to examine the relationship between along-shelf wind and sea level fluctuation. Two events of CSWs driven by the along-shelf sea surface wind are detected from wavelet spectra of tidal gauge data. The signals are triply peaked at periods of 56 h, 94 h and 180 h, propagating along the coast with phase speed ranging from 6.9 m/s to 18.9 m/s. The dispersion relation shows their property of the Kelvin mode of CSW. We develop a simple method to estimate amplitude of sea surface fluctuation by along-shelf wind. The results are comparable with the observation data, suggesting it is effective. The mode 2 CSWs fits very well with the mooring current velocity data. The results from rare current help to understand wave-current interaction in the northwestern SCS.

本研究旨在探讨 2021 年冬季风暴诱发的南海西北大陆架大陆架波(CSW)的特征。利用 2021 年 1 月 1 日至 2 月 28 日的系泊和巡航观测资料、香港站、闸坡站和清澜站的测潮资料以及海面风资料,研究了沿岸风与海平面波动之间的关系。从测潮仪数据的小波频谱中探测到两个由沿岸海面风驱动的 CSW 事件。这些信号分别在 56 小时、94 小时和 180 小时的周期内达到三个峰值,沿海岸线传播,相位速度从 6.9 米/秒到 18.9 米/秒不等。其频散关系显示了 CSW 开尔文模式的特性。我们开发了一种简单的方法来估算沿岸风的海面波动幅度。结果与观测数据相当,表明该方法是有效的。模式 2 CSW 与系泊流速数据非常吻合。稀有海流的结果有助于理解南中国海西北部的波流相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring spatial non-stationarity of near-miss ship collisions from AIS data under the influence of sea fog using geographically weighted regression: A case study in the Bohai Sea, China 利用地理加权回归,从 AIS 数据中探索海雾影响下近失船碰撞的空间非平稳性:中国渤海案例研究
IF 1.4 3区 地球科学 Q3 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1007/s13131-022-2137-7
Yongtian Shen, Zhe Zeng, Dan Liu, Pei Du

Sea fog is a disastrous weather phenomenon, posing a risk to the safety of maritime transportation. Dense sea fogs reduce visibility at sea and have frequently caused ship collisions. This study used a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to explore the spatial non-stationarity of near-miss collision risk, as detected by a vessel conflict ranking operator (VCRO) model from automatic identification system (AIS) data under the influence of sea fog in the Bohai Sea. Sea fog was identified by a machine learning method that was derived from Himawari-8 satellite data. The spatial distributions of near-miss collision risk, sea fog, and the parameters of GWR were mapped. The results showed that sea fog and near-miss collision risk have specific spatial distribution patterns in the Bohai Sea, in which near-miss collision risk in the fog season is significantly higher than that outside the fog season, especially in the northeast (the sea area near Yingkou Port and Bayuquan Port) and the southeast (the sea area near Yantai Port). GWR outputs further indicated a significant correlation between near-miss collision risk and sea fog in fog season, with higher R-squared (0.890 in fog season, 2018), than outside the fog season (0.723 in non-fog season, 2018). GWR results revealed spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between-near miss collision risk and sea fog and that the significance of these relationships varied locally. Dividing the specific navigation area made it possible to verify that sea fog has a positive impact on near-miss collision risk.

海雾是一种灾害性天气现象,对海上运输安全构成威胁。浓雾降低了海上能见度,经常造成船舶碰撞。本研究利用地理加权回归(GWR)模型,探讨了渤海海雾影响下船舶冲突排序算子(VCRO)模型从自动识别系统(AIS)数据中检测到的近距离碰撞风险的空间非平稳性。海雾是通过源自 Himawari-8 卫星数据的机器学习方法识别的。绘制了近距离碰撞风险、海雾和 GWR 参数的空间分布图。结果表明,海雾和碰撞风险在渤海具有特定的空间分布模式,其中雾季的碰撞风险明显高于非雾季,尤其是在东北部(营口港和巴尤泉港附近海域)和东南部(烟台港附近海域)。GWR 输出结果进一步表明,雾季近距离碰撞风险与海雾之间存在显著相关性,R 方(2018 年雾季为 0.890)高于雾季以外(2018 年非雾季为 0.723)。GWR 结果显示,近失碰撞风险与海雾之间的关系存在空间非平稳性,且这些关系的显著性在局部地区存在差异。划分特定航行区域可以验证海雾对近距离碰撞风险有积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Acta Oceanologica Sinica
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