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Real-time monitoring and optimization of machine learning intelligent control system in power data modeling technology 电力数据建模技术中机器学习智能控制系统的实时监控与优化
Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100584
Qiong Wang , Zuohu Chen , Yongbo Zhou , Zhiyuan Liu , Zhenguo Peng
In response to the problems of insufficient model accuracy and poor real-time performance in real-time monitoring and optimization of data models in traditional power systems, this paper explored them based on machine learning. It used methods such as box plots and Kalman filters to preprocess power data and used Fourier transform and long short-term memory (LSTM) network to extract data features. Based on long-term and short-term memory networks, this paper constructed a deep neural network model to process data. Recursive feature elimination method can be used for feature selection in the model, and multi-model integration method can be used for feature fusion. The experiment trained and tested the model on two datasets, IEEE 39-Bus and Pecan Street. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the paper's model in both the training and testing sets is higher than that of the convolutional neural network, decision tree, and support vector machine models in the comparative experiments, reaching 93 % and 94 %, respectively. The average response times in three different testing methods were 139.8 ms, 151 ms, and 140.6 ms, respectively. The lowest daily failure rate for 30 consecutive days of work was 0 %, which reflects the stability of the model; in the satisfaction survey of practitioners, the proportion of high recognition answers to each question was higher than 80 %. The experimental results show that the machine learning intelligent control system has achieved good application in power data modeling technology, providing a reference for similar research in the future.
针对传统电力系统实时监测和数据模型优化中存在的模型精度不够、实时性差等问题,本文基于机器学习进行了探索。它使用盒图和卡尔曼滤波器等方法对电力数据进行预处理,并使用傅里叶变换和长短期记忆(LSTM)网络提取数据特征。基于长短期记忆网络,本文构建了一个深度神经网络模型来处理数据。模型中的特征选择可采用递归特征消除法,特征融合可采用多模型融合法。实验在 IEEE 39-Bus 和 Pecan Street 两个数据集上对模型进行了训练和测试。实验结果表明,在对比实验中,本文模型在训练集和测试集中的准确率均高于卷积神经网络、决策树和支持向量机模型,分别达到 93 % 和 94 %。三种不同测试方法的平均响应时间分别为 139.8 毫秒、151 毫秒和 140.6 毫秒。连续工作 30 天的最低日故障率为 0 %,体现了模型的稳定性;在对从业人员的满意度调查中,每个问题的高识别答案比例均高于 80 %。实验结果表明,机器学习智能控制系统在电力数据建模技术中取得了良好的应用效果,为今后类似研究提供了参考。
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引用次数: 0
Recurrent neural networks for anomaly detection in magnet power supplies of particle accelerators 用于粒子加速器磁体电源异常检测的循环神经网络
Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100585
Ihar Lobach, Michael Borland

This research illustrates how time-series forecasting employing recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can be used for anomaly detection in particle accelerators—complex machines that accelerate elementary particles to high speeds for various scientific and industrial applications. Our approach utilizes an RNN to predict temperatures of key components of magnet power supplies (PSs), which can number up to thousands in an accelerator. An anomaly is declared when the predicted temperature deviates significantly from observation. Our method can help identify a PS requiring maintenance before it fails and leads to costly downtime of an entire billion-dollar accelerator facility. We demonstrate that the RNN outperforms a reasonably complex physics-based model at predicting the PS temperatures and at anomaly detection. We conclude that for practical applications it can be beneficial to use RNNs instead of increasing the complexity of the physics-based model. We chose the long short-term memory (LSTM) as opposed to other RNN cell structures due to its widespread use in time-series forecasting and its relative simplicity. However, we demonstrate that the LSTM’s precision of predicting PS temperatures is nearly on par with measurement precision, making more complex or custom architectures unnecessary. Lastly, we dedicate a section of this paper to presenting a proof-of-concept for using infrared cameras for spatially-resolved anomaly detection inside power supplies, which will be a subject of future research.

这项研究说明了如何利用递归神经网络(RNN)进行时间序列预测,从而在粒子加速器(将基本粒子加速到高速的复杂机器,用于各种科学和工业应用)中进行异常检测。我们的方法利用 RNN 来预测磁体电源 (PS) 关键部件的温度,加速器中的磁体电源数量可达数千个。当预测温度与观测温度出现明显偏差时,就会宣布出现异常。我们的方法有助于在 PS 出现故障并导致整个价值数十亿美元的加速器设施出现代价高昂的停机之前,识别出需要维护的 PS。我们证明,在预测 PS 温度和异常检测方面,RNN 优于相当复杂的基于物理的模型。我们的结论是,在实际应用中,使用 RNN 而不是增加基于物理模型的复杂性是有益的。与其他 RNN 单元结构相比,我们选择了长短期记忆(LSTM),因为它在时间序列预测中应用广泛,而且相对简单。不过,我们证明 LSTM 预测 PS 温度的精度几乎与测量精度相当,因此没有必要采用更复杂或定制的架构。最后,我们在本文中专门用一个章节介绍了使用红外摄像头进行电源内部空间分辨异常检测的概念验证,这将是未来研究的一个主题。
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引用次数: 0
Robust image classification system via cloud computing, aligned multimodal embeddings, centroids and neighbours 通过云计算、对齐多模态嵌入、中心点和邻域实现稳健的图像分类系统
Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100583
Wei Lun Koh, James Boon Yong Koh, Bing Tian Dai

We propose a framework for a cloud-based application of an image classification system that is highly accessible, maintains data confidentiality, and robust to incorrect training labels. The end-to-end system is implemented using Amazon Web Services (AWS), with a detailed guide provided for replication, enhancing the ways which researchers can collaborate with a community of users for mutual benefits. A front-end web application allows users across the world to securely log in, contribute labelled training images conveniently via a drag-and-drop approach, and use that same application to query an up-to-date model that has knowledge of images from the community of users. This resulting system demonstrates that theory can be effectively interlaced with practice, with various considerations addressed by our architecture. Users will have access to an image classification model that can be updated and automatically deployed within minutes, gaining benefits from and at the same time providing benefits to the community of users. At the same time, researchers, who will act as administrators, will be able to conveniently and securely engage a large number of users with their respective machine learning models and build up a labelled database over time, paying only variable costs that is proportional to utilization.

我们为基于云的图像分类系统应用提出了一个框架,该框架具有高度可访问性、数据保密性和对错误训练标签的鲁棒性。端到端系统使用亚马逊网络服务(AWS)实施,并提供了详细的复制指南,从而增强了研究人员与用户社区互利合作的方式。前端网络应用程序允许世界各地的用户安全登录,通过拖放方式方便地提供标记过的训练图像,并使用同一应用程序查询最新模型,该模型拥有来自用户社区的图像知识。该系统的成果表明,理论可以有效地与实践相结合,我们的架构可以解决各种问题。用户可以访问可在数分钟内更新和自动部署的图像分类模型,从而从用户群中获益,同时也为用户群带来益处。与此同时,作为管理员的研究人员将能够方便、安全地让大量用户使用他们各自的机器学习模型,并随着时间的推移建立一个标记数据库,只需支付与使用率成正比的可变成本。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of bike-sharing station demand using explainable artificial intelligence 利用可解释人工智能预测共享单车站点需求
Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100582
Frank Ngeni , Boniphace Kutela , Tumlumbe Juliana Chengula , Cuthbert Ruseruka , Hannah Musau , Norris Novat , Debbie Aisiana Indah , Sarah Kasomi

Bike-sharing systems have grown in popularity in metropolitan areas, providing a handy and environmentally friendly transportation choice for commuters and visitors alike. As demand for bike-sharing programs grows, efficient capacity planning becomes critical to ensuring good user experience and system sustainability in terms of demand. The random forest model was used in this study to predict bike-sharing station demand and is considered a strong ensemble learning approach that can successfully capture complicated nonlinear correlations and interactions between input variables. This study employed data from the Smart Location Database (SLD) to test the model accuracy in estimating station demand and used a form of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) function to further understand machine learning (ML) prediction outcomes owing to the blackbox tendencies of ML models. Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions were the most important features in predicting docking station demand individually but not holistically based on the datasets. The percentage of zero-car households, gross residential density, road network density, aggregate frequency of transit service, and gross activity density were found to have a moderate influence on the prediction model. Further, there may be a better prediction model generating sensible results for every type of explanatory variable, but their contributions are minimum to the prediction outcome. By measuring each feature's contribution to demand prediction in feature engineering, bike-sharing operators can acquire a better understanding of the bike-sharing station capacity and forecast future demands during planning. At the same time, ML models will need further assessment before a holistic conclusion.

共享单车系统在大都市地区越来越受欢迎,为通勤者和游客提供了便捷、环保的交通选择。随着共享单车需求的增长,高效的容量规划对确保良好的用户体验和系统需求的可持续性至关重要。本研究采用随机森林模型来预测共享单车站点的需求,该模型被认为是一种强大的集合学习方法,能够成功捕捉输入变量之间复杂的非线性关联和相互作用。本研究使用智能地点数据库(SLD)中的数据来测试模型在估算站点需求方面的准确性,并使用一种可解释人工智能(XAI)函数来进一步理解机器学习(ML)预测结果,因为ML模型具有黑箱倾向。车辆行驶里程(VMT)和温室气体(GHG)排放量是单独预测停靠站需求的最重要特征,但不是基于数据集的整体预测。零汽车家庭比例、住宅总密度、路网密度、公交服务总频率和活动总密度对预测模型的影响不大。此外,每一种解释变量都可能有一个更好的预测模型来产生合理的结果,但它们对预测结果的贡献都是最小的。通过在特征工程中衡量每个特征对需求预测的贡献,共享单车运营商可以更好地了解共享单车站点的容量,并在规划过程中预测未来的需求。同时,ML 模型还需要进一步评估才能得出整体结论。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing advanced driver assistance systems through explainable artificial intelligence for driver anomaly detection 通过用于驾驶员异常检测的可解释人工智能增强高级驾驶员辅助系统
Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100580
Tumlumbe Juliana Chengula , Judith Mwakalonge , Gurcan Comert , Methusela Sulle , Saidi Siuhi , Eric Osei

The recent advancements in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have significantly contributed to road safety and driving comfort. An integral aspect of these systems is the detection of driver anomalies such as drowsiness, distraction, and impairment, which are crucial for preventing accidents. Building upon previous studies that utilized ensemble model learning (XGBoost) with deep learning models (ResNet50, DenseNet201, and InceptionV3) for anomaly detection, this study introduces a comprehensive feature importance analysis using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) technique. The technique is implemented through explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). The primary objective is to unravel the complex decision-making process of the ensemble model, which has previously demonstrated near-perfect performance metrics in classifying driver behaviors using in-vehicle cameras. By applying SHAP, the study aims to identify and quantify the contribution of each feature – such as facial expressions, head position, yawning, and sleeping – in predicting driver states. This analysis offers insights into the model’s inner workings and guides the enhancement of feature engineering for more precise and reliable anomaly detection. The findings of this study are expected to impact the development of future ADAS technologies significantly. By pinpointing the most influential features and understanding their dynamics, a model can be optimized for various driving scenarios, ensuring that ADAS systems are robust, accurate, and tailored to real-world conditions. Ultimately, this study contributes to the overarching goal of enhancing road safety through technologically advanced, data-driven approaches.

先进驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)的最新进展极大地促进了道路安全和驾驶舒适性。这些系统不可或缺的一个方面是检测驾驶员的异常情况,如嗜睡、分心和损伤,这对预防事故至关重要。以往的研究利用集合模型学习(XGBoost)和深度学习模型(ResNet50、DenseNet201 和 InceptionV3)进行异常检测,本研究在此基础上采用 SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)技术引入了全面的特征重要性分析。该技术是通过可解释人工智能(XAI)实现的。其主要目的是揭示集合模型的复杂决策过程,该模型之前在使用车载摄像头对驾驶员行为进行分类时已展示出近乎完美的性能指标。通过应用 SHAP,该研究旨在识别和量化每个特征(如面部表情、头部位置、打哈欠和睡眠)在预测驾驶员状态方面的贡献。这种分析有助于深入了解模型的内部运作,并指导特征工程的改进,从而实现更精确、更可靠的异常检测。这项研究的结果有望对未来 ADAS 技术的发展产生重大影响。通过精确定位最具影响力的特征并了解其动态变化,可以针对各种驾驶场景对模型进行优化,从而确保 ADAS 系统的稳健性、准确性,并符合实际情况。最终,这项研究有助于实现通过技术先进、数据驱动的方法提高道路安全的总体目标。
{"title":"Enhancing advanced driver assistance systems through explainable artificial intelligence for driver anomaly detection","authors":"Tumlumbe Juliana Chengula ,&nbsp;Judith Mwakalonge ,&nbsp;Gurcan Comert ,&nbsp;Methusela Sulle ,&nbsp;Saidi Siuhi ,&nbsp;Eric Osei","doi":"10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The recent advancements in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have significantly contributed to road safety and driving comfort. An integral aspect of these systems is the detection of driver anomalies such as drowsiness, distraction, and impairment, which are crucial for preventing accidents. Building upon previous studies that utilized ensemble model learning (XGBoost) with deep learning models (ResNet50, DenseNet201, and InceptionV3) for anomaly detection, this study introduces a comprehensive feature importance analysis using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) technique. The technique is implemented through explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). The primary objective is to unravel the complex decision-making process of the ensemble model, which has previously demonstrated near-perfect performance metrics in classifying driver behaviors using in-vehicle cameras. By applying SHAP, the study aims to identify and quantify the contribution of each feature – such as facial expressions, head position, yawning, and sleeping – in predicting driver states. This analysis offers insights into the model’s inner workings and guides the enhancement of feature engineering for more precise and reliable anomaly detection. The findings of this study are expected to impact the development of future ADAS technologies significantly. By pinpointing the most influential features and understanding their dynamics, a model can be optimized for various driving scenarios, ensuring that ADAS systems are robust, accurate, and tailored to real-world conditions. Ultimately, this study contributes to the overarching goal of enhancing road safety through technologically advanced, data-driven approaches.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":74093,"journal":{"name":"Machine learning with applications","volume":"17 ","pages":"Article 100580"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666827024000562/pdfft?md5=f80e9f1f7d3e0f04778d0e4fbebf27c0&pid=1-s2.0-S2666827024000562-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141953205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Navigating interpretability and alpha control in GF-KCSD testing with measurement error: A Kernel approach 在有测量误差的 GF-KCSD 测试中控制可解释性和阿尔法:核方法
Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100581
Elham Afzali, Saman Muthukumarana, Liqun Wang

The Gradient-Free Kernel Conditional Stein Discrepancy (GF-KCSD), presented in our prior work, represents a significant advancement in goodness-of-fit testing for conditional distributions. This method offers a robust alternative to previous gradient-based techniques, specially when the gradient calculation is intractable or computationally expensive. In this study, we explore previously unexamined aspects of GF-KCSD, with a particular focus on critical values and test power—essential components for effective hypothesis testing. We also present novel investigation on the impact of measurement errors on the performance of GF-KCSD in comparison to established benchmarks, enhancing our understanding of its resilience to these errors. Through controlled experiments using synthetic data, we demonstrate GF-KCSD’s superior ability to control type-I error rates and maintain high statistical power, even in the presence of measurement inaccuracies. Our empirical evaluation extends to real-world datasets, including brain MRI data. The findings confirm that GF-KCSD performs comparably to KCSD in hypothesis testing effectiveness while requiring significantly less computational time. This demonstrates GF-KCSD’s capability as an efficient tool for analyzing complex data, enhancing its value for scenarios that demand rapid and robust statistical analysis.

无梯度核条件斯泰因差异(GF-KCSD)在我们之前的工作中已经提出,它代表了条件分布拟合优度测试的一大进步。这种方法为以前基于梯度的技术提供了一种稳健的替代方法,尤其是在梯度计算难以实现或计算成本高昂的情况下。在本研究中,我们探索了 GF-KCSD 以前未曾研究过的方面,特别是临界值和检验功率--有效假设检验的重要组成部分。与已有的基准相比,我们还对测量误差对 GF-KCSD 性能的影响进行了新颖的研究,从而加深了我们对 GF-KCSD 抵御这些误差能力的理解。通过使用合成数据进行受控实验,我们证明了 GF-KCSD 即使在存在测量误差的情况下,也能控制 I 类错误率并保持较高的统计能力。我们的实证评估扩展到了真实世界的数据集,包括脑磁共振成像数据。结果证实,GF-KCSD 在假设检验有效性方面的表现与 KCSD 不相上下,而所需的计算时间却大大减少。这证明了 GF-KCSD 作为分析复杂数据的高效工具的能力,提高了它在需要快速、稳健统计分析的应用场景中的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Supervised machine learning in drug discovery and development: Algorithms, applications, challenges, and prospects 药物发现和开发中的监督机器学习:算法、应用、挑战和前景
Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100576
George Obaido , Ibomoiye Domor Mienye , Oluwaseun F. Egbelowo , Ikiomoye Douglas Emmanuel , Adeola Ogunleye , Blessing Ogbuokiri , Pere Mienye , Kehinde Aruleba

Drug discovery and development is a time-consuming process that involves identifying, designing, and testing new drugs to address critical medical needs. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has played a vital role in technological advancements and has shown promising results in various drug discovery and development stages. ML can be categorized into supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised, and reinforcement learning. Supervised learning is the most used category, helping organizations solve several real-world problems. This study presents a comprehensive survey of supervised learning algorithms in drug design and development, focusing on their learning process and succinct mathematical formulations, which are lacking in the literature. Additionally, the study discusses widely encountered challenges in applying supervised learning for drug discovery and potential solutions. This study will be beneficial to researchers and practitioners in the pharmaceutical industry as it provides a simplified yet comprehensive review of the main concepts, algorithms, challenges, and prospects in supervised learning.

药物发现和开发是一个耗时的过程,包括识别、设计和测试新药,以满足关键的医疗需求。近年来,机器学习(ML)在技术进步中发挥了重要作用,并在药物发现和开发的各个阶段取得了可喜的成果。机器学习可分为监督学习、无监督学习、半监督学习和强化学习。监督学习是使用最多的一类,可以帮助企业解决一些实际问题。本研究对药物设计与开发中的监督学习算法进行了全面调查,重点关注其学习过程和简洁的数学公式,这在文献中是缺乏的。此外,本研究还讨论了将监督学习应用于药物发现过程中广泛遇到的挑战以及潜在的解决方案。本研究对监督学习的主要概念、算法、挑战和前景进行了简明而全面的评述,对制药行业的研究人员和从业人员大有裨益。
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引用次数: 0
Detection of presence or absence of metastasis in WSI patches of breast cancer using the dual-enhanced convolutional ensemble neural network 利用双增强卷积集合神经网络检测乳腺癌 WSI 斑块中是否存在转移灶
Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100579
Ruigang Ge , Guoyue Chen , Kazuki Saruta , Yuki Terata

Breast cancer (BC) is a prevalent malignancy worldwide, posing a significant public health burden due to its high incidence rate. Accurate detection is crucial for improving survival rates, and pathological diagnosis through biopsy is essential for detailed BC detection. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based methods have been proposed to support this detection, utilizing patches from Whole Slide Imaging (WSI) combined with sophisticated CNNs. In this research, we introduced DECENN, a novel deep learning architecture designed to overcome the limitations of single CNN models under fixed pre-trained parameter transfer learning settings. DECENN employs an ensemble of VGG16 and DenseNet121, integrated with innovative modules such as Multi-Scale Feature Extraction, Heterogeneous Convolution Enhancement, Feature Harmonization and Fusion, and Feature Integration Output. Through progressive stages – from baseline models, intermediate DCNN and DCNN+ models, to the fully integrated DECENN model – significant performance improvements were observed in experiments using 5-fold cross-validation on the Patch Camelyon(PCam) dataset. DECENN achieved an AUC of 99.70% ± 0.12%, an F-score of 98.93% ± 0.06%, and an Accuracy of 98.92% ± 0.06%, (p<0.001). These results highlight DECENN’s potential to significantly enhance the automated detection and diagnostic accuracy of BC metastasis in biopsy specimens.

乳腺癌(BC)是一种全球流行的恶性肿瘤,由于发病率高,给公共卫生带来了巨大负担。准确的检测对于提高生存率至关重要,而通过活检进行病理诊断对于乳腺癌的详细检测至关重要。有人提出了基于卷积神经网络(CNN)的方法,利用全切片成像(WSI)的斑块与复杂的 CNN 相结合来支持这种检测。在这项研究中,我们引入了 DECENN,这是一种新型深度学习架构,旨在克服单一 CNN 模型在固定预训练参数迁移学习设置下的局限性。DECENN 采用了 VGG16 和 DenseNet121 的集合,并集成了多尺度特征提取、异构卷积增强、特征协调与融合以及特征集成输出等创新模块。通过从基线模型、中间 DCNN 和 DCNN+ 模型到完全集成的 DECENN 模型等渐进阶段,在 Patch Camelyon(PCam) 数据集上使用 5 倍交叉验证进行的实验中观察到了显著的性能改进。DECENN 的 AUC 为 99.70% ± 0.12%,F-score 为 98.93% ± 0.06%,准确率为 98.92% ± 0.06%,(p<0.001)。这些结果凸显了 DECENN 在显著提高活检样本中 BC 转移的自动检测和诊断准确性方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Data efficient contrastive learning in histopathology using active sampling 利用主动采样在组织病理学中进行数据高效对比学习
Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100577
Tahsin Reasat , Asif Sushmit , David S. Smith

Deep learning (DL) based diagnostics systems can provide accurate and robust quantitative analysis in digital pathology. These algorithms require large amounts of annotated training data which is impractical in pathology due to the high resolution of histopathological images. Hence, self-supervised methods have been proposed to learn features using ad-hoc pretext tasks. The self-supervised training process uses a large unlabeled dataset which makes the learning process time consuming. In this work, we propose a new method for actively sampling informative members from the training set using a small proxy network, decreasing sample requirement by 93% and training time by 62% while maintaining the same performance of the traditional self-supervised learning method. The code is available on github.

基于深度学习(DL)的诊断系统可在数字病理学中提供准确、稳健的定量分析。这些算法需要大量有注释的训练数据,而由于组织病理学图像的高分辨率,这在病理学中是不切实际的。因此,有人提出了利用临时借口任务学习特征的自监督方法。自我监督训练过程使用大量未标记的数据集,这使得学习过程非常耗时。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种利用小型代理网络从训练集中主动抽取信息成员的新方法,在保持与传统自我监督学习方法相同性能的同时,将样本要求降低了 93%,将训练时间缩短了 62%。代码可在 github 上获取。
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引用次数: 0
A framework for modelling customer invoice payment predictions 客户发票付款预测建模框架
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100578
Willem Roux Moore, Jan H. van Vuuren

By offering clients attractive credit terms on sales, a company may increase its turnover, but granting credit also incurs the cost of money tied up in accounts receivable (AR), increased administration and a heightened probability of incurring bad debt. The management of credit sales, although eminently important to any business, is often performed manually, which may be time-consuming, expensive and inaccurate. Such an administrative workload becomes increasingly cumbersome as the number of credit sales increases. As a result, a new approach towards proactively identifying invoices from AR accounts that are likely to be paid late, or not at all, has recently been proposed in the literature, with the aim of employing intervention strategies more effectively. Several computational techniques from the credit scoring literature and particularly techniques from the realms of survival analysis or machine learning have been embedded in the aforementioned approach. This body of work is, however, lacking due to the limited guidance provided during the data preparation phase of the model development process and because survival analytic and machine learning techniques have not yet been ensembled. In this paper, we propose a generic framework for modelling invoice payment predictions with the aim of facilitating the process of preparing transaction data for analysis, generating relevant features from past customer behaviours, and selecting and ensembling suitable models for predicting the time to payment associated with invoices. We also introduce a new sequential ensembling approach, called the Survival Boost algorithm. The rationale behind this method is that features generated by a survival analytic model can enhance the efficacy of a machine learning classification algorithm.

通过向客户提供有吸引力的赊销条件,公司可以提高营业额,但提供赊销也会产生应收账款(AR)的资金占用成本、管理费用增加以及产生坏账的可能性增大。赊销管理虽然对任何企业都非常重要,但通常都是手工操作,可能费时、费钱且不准确。随着赊销数量的增加,这种管理工作也变得越来越繁琐。因此,最近有文献提出了一种新方法,即从应收账款账户中主动识别可能逾期付款或根本不付款的发票,以便更有效地采用干预策略。上述方法中包含了信用评分文献中的一些计算技术,特别是生存分析或机器学习领域的技术。然而,由于在模型开发过程的数据准备阶段所提供的指导有限,而且生存分析和机器学习技术还没有被组合起来,因此这方面的工作还很欠缺。在本文中,我们提出了建立发票付款预测模型的通用框架,目的是简化准备交易数据进行分析的过程,从过去的客户行为中生成相关特征,并选择和组合合适的模型来预测与发票相关的付款时间。我们还引入了一种新的顺序集合方法,称为 "生存提升算法"。这种方法的原理是,生存分析模型生成的特征可以提高机器学习分类算法的效率。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Machine learning with applications
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