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Household decision dynamics and food insecurity: evidence from the one-cow-per-poor-family programme in Rwanda. 家庭决策动态与粮食不安全:来自卢旺达每个贫困家庭一头牛计划的证据。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1007/s43546-025-00904-w
Olayinka Idowu Kareem, Mayokun Akeremale, Christine Wieck, Theogene Dusingizimana, Olivier Kamana, Mizeck G G Chagunda

Rwanda, like many African countries, endeavours to overcome the food insecurity challenge with different initiatives. One such initiative is the 'one-cow-per-poor-family' programme known as the 'Girinka Programme'. With the introduction of every cow into the household, there is a resultant change in household bio-economics. Subsequently, some decisions must be made regarding either the consumption or the selling of milk, calves or manure. This study investigates the effect of household decision dynamics within the framework of this programme on food insecurity in Rwanda. The micro-econometrics analytical approach is adopted in the empirical strategy using the household data from the 'Girinka Programme' in an ordered probit model. A total of 3000 households were surveyed, and data were collected across 20 districts in Rwanda in 2016 and 2017 and used in the empirical estimations. Our findings affirm the a priori expectation that households' food insecurity is reduced with additional income sources. Besides, the results indicate that the households acquired and/or used more land by participating in the programme through access to cow's manure and income earned either by selling the heifer or milk, than before the programme. Also, we find that households with a higher number of calves are more food-secure. The estimations indicate that there is heterogeneity in the level of food insecurity across the districts owing to the decision dynamics of the households across the districts, which lead to different outcomes. The study concludes that participation in the Girinka Programme's intervention significantly reduced food insecurity. To this end, there is a need to establish, as a strategic policy option, the institutionalisation and strengthening of the Girinka Programme for sustainability, which should be affirmed and safeguarded as a social protection policy that directly impacts food insecurity and supports the attainment of sustainable development.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-025-00904-w.

卢旺达同许多非洲国家一样,努力采取不同的举措来克服粮食不安全的挑战。其中一项倡议是“每个贫困家庭一头牛”计划,即“吉林卡计划”。随着每头奶牛被引入家庭,家庭生物经济也随之发生了变化。随后,必须就牛奶、小牛或粪便的消费或销售做出一些决定。本研究调查了该方案框架内家庭决策动态对卢旺达粮食不安全的影响。微观计量经济学分析方法在实证策略中采用了有序probit模型中使用来自“格林卡计划”的家庭数据。2016年和2017年共调查了3000户家庭,收集了卢旺达20个地区的数据,并用于实证估计。我们的研究结果证实了一个先验的预期,即家庭的粮食不安全会随着额外的收入来源而减少。此外,结果表明,通过获得牛粪和通过出售小母牛或牛奶获得收入,参与该方案的家庭获得和/或使用的土地比方案实施前更多。此外,我们发现,拥有更多小牛的家庭更有粮食安全。结果表明,由于各地区家庭的决策动态不同,各地区粮食不安全水平存在异质性,从而导致不同的结果。该研究的结论是,参与吉林卡计划的干预措施大大减少了粮食不安全状况。为此目的,有必要作为一项战略政策选择,将吉林卡方案制度化并加强其可持续性,作为一项直接影响粮食不安全并支持实现可持续发展的社会保护政策予以肯定和保障。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,提供地址:10.1007/s43546-025-00904-w。
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Modelling asymmetries among consumer price index, currency price, gross domestic output and aggregate import demand in an emerging economy: the case of Nigeria 新兴经济体消费价格指数、货币价格、国内总产出和进口总需求之间的不对称建模:尼日利亚案例
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