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Comprehensive risk mapping for heatwave-sensitive chronic diseases mortality in Argentina: An approximation based on cardiovascular diseases 阿根廷对热浪敏感的慢性病死亡率的综合风险测绘:基于心血管疾病的近似值
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100548
Juan D Pinotti , Ximena Porcasi , Sonia A Pou , Camila Niclis , María I Stimolo , Laura R Aballay , Rubén Actis Danna , Sonia E Muñoz

Introduction

Climate change poses increasing risks to human health, with heatwaves (HW) being a notable concern. This study pioneers the mapping of mortality risks associated with heat-sensitive Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Argentina, considering the simultaneous influence of HW and multiple underlying vulnerability factors.

Materials and Methods

The study integrates data from the National Statistical System, climate reanalysis, and remote sensing products by following the methodology outlined by Argentina's Climate Change Risk Mapping System. Vulnerability dimensions, including sociodemographic, environmental, pre-existing chronic conditions, and lifestyle-related factors, were analyzed to provide spatially resolved risk assessments. A random-intercept mixed effects model was fitted to assess adherence between the risk map and mortality from a heat-related NCD.

Results

Between 2006 and 2010, HW in Argentina displayed varied patterns in both intensity and extent. The vulnerability analyses reveal distinctive spatial patterns, with a notable broad diagonal from southwest to northeast. Maps indicate lower mortality risks in coastal and high-altitude areas of the northwest, with higher risks concentrated in the center-north of the country. Moreover, a positive association (RR 1·68; p < 0·001) was found between age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases and the overall risk estimates posed by HW.

Discusion and conclusion

The resulting risk map, developed through a protocolized methodology, underscores the intricate connections among contextual conditions, lifestyle attributes, and health outcomes. The study contributes to the empirical evidence base for understanding the relationship between NCDs and HW.
气候变化给人类健康带来越来越大的风险,热浪(HW)是一个值得关注的问题。该研究率先绘制了阿根廷与热敏性非传染性疾病(NCDs)相关的死亡风险图,同时考虑了高温和多种潜在脆弱性因素的影响。材料和方法本研究采用阿根廷气候变化风险测绘系统概述的方法,综合了来自国家统计系统、气候再分析和遥感产品的数据。脆弱性维度,包括社会人口、环境、已有的慢性病和生活方式相关因素,进行了分析,以提供空间解决风险评估。采用随机截距混合效应模型来评估与热相关的非传染性疾病的风险图和死亡率之间的依从性。结果2006 - 2010年,阿根廷HW在强度和程度上呈现出不同的格局。脆弱性分析显示出明显的空间格局,从西南向东北呈现明显的宽对角线。地图显示,西北沿海和高海拔地区的死亡风险较低,风险较高的地区集中在该国中北部。此外,心血管疾病的年龄标准化死亡率与健康状况造成的总体风险估计值呈正相关(RR为1.68;p < 0.001)。讨论和结论:通过协议化方法绘制的风险图强调了环境条件、生活方式属性和健康结果之间的复杂联系。该研究为理解非传染性疾病与卫生福利之间的关系提供了经验证据基础。
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引用次数: 0
Reducing regulated medical waste: A roadmap for process improvement 减少受管制的医疗废物:流程改进路线图
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100553
Clarissa A. Niino , Raanan Meyer , Catherine John , Kelly Wright

Introduction

The United States is a major producer of medical waste. While the recommended standard percentage of Regulated Medical Waste (RMW) in health care facilities is 15% or less of overall waste, up to 70% of healthcare waste is disposed of as RMW, a third of which comes from the operating room.

Methods

We implemented a month long process change in the operating rooms at a high volume, urban hospital, with the goal of reducing the amount of operating room RMW production. This intervention involved education of staff and reducing RMW receptacles to one per room. Additionally, we created a roadmap to guide scalable implementation of this process change.

Results

Following the intervention, the median amount of RMW produced decreased significantly, from 19.11 tons to 7.44 tons per month. The percentage of monthly RMW of total waste decreased from 39.8% to 16.61%. The median cost of RMW disposal dropped from $17,537.52, or 77.06% of total waste cost to $6401.14, or 49.21% per month following the intervention. We also found a decrease in the median monthly total cost of waste disposal from $23,049.33 to $13,354.94.

Conclusion

RMW can be reduced by process changes that alter the convenience of operating room waste disposal. These changes have the potential to reduce healthcare’s carbon footprint, save thousands of dollars in disposal fees, and pave the way for other earth friendly initiatives.
美国是医疗废物的主要生产国。虽然卫生保健设施中受管制医疗废物(RMW)的建议标准百分比为总废物的15%或更低,但高达70%的医疗废物被作为RMW处理,其中三分之一来自手术室。方法在某大容量城市医院手术室实施为期一个月的流程变更,目的是减少手术室RMW的产生量。这项干预措施包括对工作人员进行教育,并将RMW容器减少到每个房间一个。此外,我们还创建了一个路线图来指导此流程更改的可伸缩实现。结果干预后,RMW产量中位数从19.11吨/月显著下降至7.44吨/月。每月RMW占总废物的百分比由39.8%下降至16.61%。处理RMW的中位数成本由每月17,537.52元(占废物总成本的77.06%)降至6401.14元,即每月49.21%。我们亦发现废物处理的每月总费用中位数由$23,049.33下降至$13,354.94。结论通过改变手术室废弃物处理的便利性,可以减少rmw。这些变化有可能减少医疗保健的碳足迹,节省数千美元的处理费,并为其他环保举措铺平道路。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change and health: An assessment of state level adaptation plans 气候变化与健康:州级适应计划评估
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100593
Katharine Weber, Aparna Bole, John Balbus

Introduction

While health impacts of climate change are increasingly evident, adaptation planning for climate health impacts in the United States (US) has lagged. In the absence of a national climate and health adaptation plan, varied approaches have been taken by states to address health in their adaptation planning. The authors reviewed state adaptation plans developed since 2008 to assess how health adaptation strategies were included and to document identified adaptation gaps and needs.

Methods

Plans were identified through Georgetown Climate Center’s State Adaptation Progress Tracker and a Google search. The authors developed a scoring rubric for consistency and evaluated plans based on such criteria as: Comprehensiveness, Inclusiveness, Monitoring and Evaluation. Adaptation priorities were noted and mapped to six categories.

Results

19 plans met inclusion criteria. Most plans (14) identified exposure pathways impacting health. About half of plans identified vulnerable populations, but only three addressed the vulnerability of health systems. Most plans (13 of 19) did not mention a vulnerability assessment or cite a data source discussing vulnerability indicators. Only two plans had clear metrics for success. Only three mentioned an implementation timeline.

Conclusion

This review highlights both positive aspects and gaps in state climate and health planning. Many state plans did discuss climate and health, exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. States lack clear metrics for monitoring and evaluation or implementation. States may benefit from federal leadership through a national-level climate and health adaptation plan or the federal government’s development of planning guidance for states, localities, tribes and territories.
导言虽然气候变化对健康的影响日益明显,但美国对气候健康影响的适应规划却滞后。在没有国家气候和健康适应计划的情况下,各国在其适应规划中采取了各种方法来处理健康问题。作者审查了自2008年以来制定的国家适应计划,以评估如何纳入健康适应战略,并记录已确定的适应差距和需求。方法通过乔治城气候中心的国家适应进展跟踪和谷歌搜索确定计划。作者制定了一致性评分标准,并根据以下标准对计划进行评估:全面性、包容性、监测和评估。指出了适应优先事项,并将其划分为六个类别。结果19个方案符合纳入标准。大多数计划(14)确定了影响健康的暴露途径。大约一半的计划确定了弱势群体,但只有三个计划涉及卫生系统的脆弱性。大多数计划(19个中的13个)没有提及脆弱性评估或引用讨论脆弱性指标的数据源。只有两个计划有明确的成功指标。只有三个提到了实施时间表。结论本综述突出了国家气候与健康规划的积极方面和差距。许多州的计划确实讨论了气候和健康、暴露途径以及弱势群体。各国缺乏监测和评估或执行的明确指标。各州可通过国家一级的气候和健康适应计划或联邦政府为各州、地方、部落和领土制定规划指南,从联邦的领导中受益。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of a novel learning simulation for organizational leadership in environmental sustainability 环境永续性组织领导之新型学习模拟之评估
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100586
Alexander Negron Price , Thomas Dakin , Aditi Jayaram , Ryan Crowder , Sonia Roschnik , Tim Rogmans , Andrew N. Garman

Introduction

With climate change increasingly recognized as a significant threat to human health, healthcare leaders are becoming crucial allies in pursuing net zero emissions. To meet the profession’s learning needs the IHF-Geneva Sustainability Centre co-developed a learning simulation for healthcare leaders, which is now in use by universities and practice settings across the world.

Background/Objectives

This evaluation was conducted to assess the impact of the learning simulation and to support continuous quality improvement.

Methods

Program participants were asked to complete exit surveys involving questions concerning reactions and learning outcomes, which created an archive of participant responses. Analyses involved aggregating archival data from practice settings at the training event level for comparison. Data from higher education settings were also analyzed separately from practice settings.

Results

A total of 278 surveys collected from across 17 training events provided usable data for this analysis. Results suggested that the simulation was consistently well received across a diversity of contexts and regions. The only group-level difference was in the debriefings, in which practice-based settings were significantly more satisfied than the university settings. In reviewing qualitative comments for improvement opportunities, primary themes related to wanting more time to play through the simulation, debrief the results, or both.

Conclusions

Results suggest that simulations can be an engaging and impactful means for exposing healthcare leadership to environmentally sustainable practice principles.
随着人们日益认识到气候变化是对人类健康的重大威胁,医疗保健领导者正在成为追求净零排放的关键盟友。为了满足专业的学习需求,ihf -日内瓦可持续发展中心共同开发了一种针对医疗保健领导者的学习模拟,目前已被世界各地的大学和实践机构使用。背景/目的本评估旨在评估模拟学习的影响,并支持持续的质量改进。方法要求项目参与者完成涉及反应和学习成果的退出调查,并建立参与者的回答档案。分析包括从培训事件级别的实践设置中汇总档案数据进行比较。来自高等教育环境的数据也与实践环境分开分析。结果从17个培训项目中收集的278项调查为本分析提供了可用数据。结果表明,模拟在不同的背景和地区都得到了一致的好评。唯一的组级差异是在汇报中,基于实践的环境明显比大学环境更令人满意。在回顾定性评论以获得改进机会时,主要的主题是想要更多的时间来完成模拟,汇报结果,或者两者兼而有之。结果表明,模拟可以是一种有吸引力和有影响力的手段,使医疗保健领导层了解环境可持续发展的实践原则。
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引用次数: 0
Smart greening initiatives for healthcare facilities: A caribbean case study on environmental sustainability and disaster resilience 保健设施的智能绿化举措:加勒比关于环境可持续性和抗灾能力的案例研究
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100525
Judith Harvey , Dana van Alphen , Shalini Jagnarine Azan , Roger Camacho , Clemens Buter , Ciro Ugarte , Lealou Reballos , Alex Camacho-Vasconez , Juan S. Izquierdo-Condoy , Jorge Vasconez-Gonzalez , Esteban Ortiz-Prado

Background

The Smart Hospitals Program was implemented in seven Caribbean countries to enhance disaster resilience and environmental sustainability in small- to medium-sized healthcare facilities. The initiative focused on improving energy efficiency, water conservation, and overall environmental performance while ensuring uninterrupted healthcare service delivery in disaster-prone regions.

Methods

Facility assessments were conducted using the Green Checklist, a tool tailored for Caribbean healthcare facilities based on LEED standards. Pre- and post-retrofit evaluations targeted water and energy conservation, air quality, and waste management. Interventions included infrastructure upgrades—such as photovoltaic systems, energy-efficient equipment, and rainwater harvesting systems—and staff training on resource conservation.

Results

Energy consumption at the Vieux Fort Healthcare Facility decreased by 47.7 %, with a mean monthly reduction of -5773 kWh (95 % CI:6175 to -5371; p < 0.0001; t = 31.61, df = 11). Comfort Bay showed a median reduction of 26.6 % (-1919 kWh; p = 0.0005; W = -78.00). Water consumption reductions included 58.5 % at Saltibus (-40,456 gallons per month; p = 0.0005; W = -78.00), 18.1 % at Vieux Fort (-6924 gallons per month; p = 0.0005; W = -78.00), and 7.2 % at Mongouge (-1269 gallons per month; p = 0.0005; W = -78.00). These reductions highlight significant improvements in resource efficiency and operational sustainability across facilities.

Conclusions

The Smart Hospitals Program achieved significant reductions in water and energy consumption, demonstrating the potential of targeted retrofitting interventions to enhance sustainability and resilience in healthcare facilities. While the results highlight the program's effectiveness, maintenance challenges and variability in usage patterns underscore the need for ongoing monitoring and tailored strategies to sustain these gains. This model provides valuable insights for similar initiatives in resource-constrained and disaster-prone regions.
背景:在七个加勒比国家实施了智能医院方案,以增强中小型医疗机构的抗灾能力和环境可持续性。该倡议的重点是提高能源效率、节约用水和整体环境绩效,同时确保在灾害易发地区不间断地提供医疗保健服务。方法使用绿色检查表进行设施评估,绿色检查表是根据LEED标准为加勒比卫生保健设施量身定制的工具。改造前后的评价以节约用水和能源、空气质量和废物管理为目标。干预措施包括基础设施升级,如光伏系统、节能设备和雨水收集系统,以及对员工进行资源保护培训。结果Vieux Fort医疗机构的能源消耗下降了47.7%,平均每月减少-5773千瓦时(95% CI:6175至-5371;p < 0.0001; t = 31.61, df = 11)。Comfort Bay的平均降幅为26.6% (-1919 kWh; p = 0.0005; W = -78.00)。其中,Saltibus的用水量减少58.5%(每月减少40456加仑;p = 0.0005; W = -78.00), Vieux Fort的用水量减少18.1%(每月减少6924加仑;p = 0.0005; W = -78.00), Mongouge的用水量减少7.2%(每月减少1269加仑;p = 0.0005; W = -78.00)。这些减少突出了各设施在资源效率和运营可持续性方面的重大改进。智能医院项目显著降低了水和能源消耗,显示了有针对性的改造干预措施在提高医疗设施的可持续性和复原力方面的潜力。虽然结果突出了项目的有效性,但维护挑战和使用模式的可变性强调了持续监控和定制策略的必要性,以维持这些成果。该模型为资源受限和灾害多发地区的类似举措提供了有价值的见解。
{"title":"Smart greening initiatives for healthcare facilities: A caribbean case study on environmental sustainability and disaster resilience","authors":"Judith Harvey ,&nbsp;Dana van Alphen ,&nbsp;Shalini Jagnarine Azan ,&nbsp;Roger Camacho ,&nbsp;Clemens Buter ,&nbsp;Ciro Ugarte ,&nbsp;Lealou Reballos ,&nbsp;Alex Camacho-Vasconez ,&nbsp;Juan S. Izquierdo-Condoy ,&nbsp;Jorge Vasconez-Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Esteban Ortiz-Prado","doi":"10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100525","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100525","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>The Smart Hospitals Program was implemented in seven Caribbean countries to enhance disaster resilience and environmental sustainability in small- to medium-sized healthcare facilities. The initiative focused on improving energy efficiency, water conservation, and overall environmental performance while ensuring uninterrupted healthcare service delivery in disaster-prone regions.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Facility assessments were conducted using the Green Checklist, a tool tailored for Caribbean healthcare facilities based on LEED standards. Pre- and post-retrofit evaluations targeted water and energy conservation, air quality, and waste management. Interventions included infrastructure upgrades—such as photovoltaic systems, energy-efficient equipment, and rainwater harvesting systems—and staff training on resource conservation.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Energy consumption at the Vieux Fort Healthcare Facility decreased by 47.7 %, with a mean monthly reduction of -5773 kWh (95 % CI:6175 to -5371; <em>p</em> &lt; 0.0001; <em>t</em> = 31.61, df = 11). Comfort Bay showed a median reduction of 26.6 % (-1919 kWh; <em>p</em> = 0.0005; <em>W</em> = -78.00). Water consumption reductions included 58.5 % at Saltibus (-40,456 gallons per month; <em>p</em> = 0.0005; <em>W</em> = -78.00), 18.1 % at Vieux Fort (-6924 gallons per month; <em>p</em> = 0.0005; <em>W</em> = -78.00), and 7.2 % at Mongouge (-1269 gallons per month; <em>p</em> = 0.0005; <em>W</em> = -78.00). These reductions highlight significant improvements in resource efficiency and operational sustainability across facilities.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The Smart Hospitals Program achieved significant reductions in water and energy consumption, demonstrating the potential of targeted retrofitting interventions to enhance sustainability and resilience in healthcare facilities. While the results highlight the program's effectiveness, maintenance challenges and variability in usage patterns underscore the need for ongoing monitoring and tailored strategies to sustain these gains. This model provides valuable insights for similar initiatives in resource-constrained and disaster-prone regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":75054,"journal":{"name":"The journal of climate change and health","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100525"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145269346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring indigenous household resilience to global environmental changes: Psychometrics and face validity scale development 测量本地家庭对全球环境变化的弹性:心理测量学和面孔效度量表的开发
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100489
Shanondora Billiot , Chao-Kai Huang , Nidia Hernandez , Jessica Elm , Balakrishnan Balachandran , Jasmine Fournier

Background

This study developed the factor structure of an Indigenous Household Resilience Scale (IHRS) within a state-recognized tribal community facing extreme environmental threats. The IHRS assesses Indigenous people's subjective appraisal of resilience at the household level, which is crucial as decisions such as relocation due to repeated disasters and chronic land loss occur at this level rather than at individual or community levels.

Methods

This study employed a Tribally led participatory sequential mixed-methods approach. We collected survey data from tribal citizens (N = 119) along the Gulf Coast. Initial scale development involved a literature review, face validity, and community engagement, resulting in 17 indicators across three constructs. Researchers followed collaborative protocols and received appropriate institutional approvals.

Results

Guided by a series of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), item reduction and restructuring led to an 11-item scale into three factors: Cultural Continuity, Relational Place-based Worldview, and Community Engagement. The adjusted CFA model demonstrated good fit indices (a non-significant χ2 test; RMSEA = 0.05; CFI = 0.94; SRMR = 0.06), with moderate to strong inter-factor correlations (ranging from 0.62 to 0.71), supporting construct distinctiveness. The overall scale showed acceptable internal consistency (ω = 0.80).

Implications

These findings provide preliminary evidence for measuring household resilience within an Indigenous community and contribute to Indigenous scholarship. This scale is particularly relevant for social and behavioral health practitioners and researchers working with Indigenous peoples who face environmental challenges, as it enhances culturally sensitive coping strategies and identifies factors promoting resilience at the household level.
本研究在一个面临极端环境威胁的国家承认的部落社区中开发了土著家庭弹性量表(IHRS)的因素结构。IHRS评估了土著人民在家庭一级对恢复力的主观评价,这是至关重要的,因为诸如由于反复发生的灾害和长期土地流失而进行的搬迁等决定是在家庭一级而不是在个人或社区一级作出的。方法本研究采用部落主导的参与式顺序混合方法。我们收集了墨西哥湾沿岸部落居民(N = 119)的调查数据。最初的量表开发包括文献回顾、面孔效度和社区参与,总共有17个指标跨越三个构式。研究人员遵循合作协议并获得适当的机构批准。结果在探索性因素分析(EFA)和验证性因素分析(CFA)的指导下,项目减少和重组将11个项目的量表分为三个因素:文化连续性、关系地为基础的世界观和社区参与。调整后的CFA模型显示出良好的拟合指数(无显著性χ2检验;RMSEA = 0.05; CFI = 0.94; SRMR = 0.06),具有中等至强的因子间相关性(范围为0.62至0.71),支持结构的显著性。整体量表显示可接受的内部一致性(ω = 0.80)。这些发现为衡量土著社区内的家庭弹性提供了初步证据,并有助于土著学术研究。该量表与社会和行为健康从业人员以及与面临环境挑战的土著人民一起工作的研究人员特别相关,因为它加强了具有文化敏感性的应对战略,并确定了在家庭一级促进复原力的因素。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities of extreme heat in learning environments of Puerto Rico in 2023 评估2023年波多黎各学习环境中极端高温的影响、风险和脆弱性
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100581
Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro , Laura T. Cabrera-Rivera , Digna Rueda-Roa , Frank E. Muller-Karger , Manuel Heredia Morales , Mónica V. Sánchez-Sepúlveda , Ernesto Rodríguez , Odalys Martínez , Ernesto Morales , Patricia Chardón-Maldonado , Wanda I. Crespo-Acevedo , Sarah Molinari , Masoud Ghandehari , Jorge E. Gonzalez-Cruz

Introduction

Puerto Rico is experiencing anomalous heat episodes. The year 2023 was marked by unprecedented extreme heat events with negative impacts in Puerto Rico’s learning environments. This study aimed to understand the context, barriers, knowledge, risks, vulnerabilities, perceptions, employees’ profiles, attitudes, and symptoms related to extreme heat in learning environments.

Materials and Methods

We employed a mixed-methods approach combining: (1) Earth Observation Data and geospatial analysis, (2) an online survey for teachers, administrative staff, and other school employees from diverse educational settings and levels and (3) a series of participatory activities with stakeholders, practitioners and decision makers that led to knowledge co-production and adaptation strategies.

Results

36 % of schools were exposed to land surface temperatures exceeding 41.4 °C. The southern region showed the highest proportion (50.7 %) of schools in high or critical risk areas for heat and had insufficient A/C infrastructure. Survey results indicated significant disparities in A/C conditioning availability between private (17.28 %), public schools (2.93 %) and educational regions. Students and school employees in non-air-conditioned environments showed significantly higher odds of experiencing heat-related symptoms. Fatigue (OR=2.53), irrationality (OR=2.40), lack of attention (OR=2.14), dizziness (OR=2.62, 95 % CI: 1.91–3.65) were some of the most reported symptoms.

Conclusion

This assessment of extreme heat impacts in tropical learning environments reveals significant disparities in heat exposure and adaptation capacity across Puerto Rico's educational system. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions. This research contributes to the improvement of learning environments and serves as a model for adaptation efforts in educational settings in tropical islands.
波多黎各正在经历反常的高温事件。2023年发生了前所未有的极端高温事件,对波多黎各的学习环境产生了负面影响。本研究旨在了解学习环境中与极端高温相关的背景、障碍、知识、风险、脆弱性、认知、员工概况、态度和症状。材料和方法我们采用了混合方法:(1)地球观测数据和地理空间分析;(2)对来自不同教育背景和水平的教师、行政人员和其他学校员工进行在线调查;(3)与利益相关者、从业者和决策者进行一系列参与性活动,从而产生知识共同生产和适应策略。结果36%的学校暴露在地表温度超过41.4℃的环境中。南部地区最高的比例(50.7%)的学校处于高温高风区或高危地区,并且空调基础设施不足。调查结果显示,私立学校(17.28%)、公立学校(2.93%)和教育地区在空调利用率方面存在显著差异。在没有空调的环境中,学生和学校员工出现热相关症状的几率明显更高。疲劳(OR=2.53)、神志不清(OR=2.40)、注意力不集中(OR=2.14)、头晕(OR=2.62, 95% CI: 1.91 ~ 3.65)是报告最多的症状。结论:对热带学习环境中极端高温影响的评估表明,波多黎各教育系统在热暴露和适应能力方面存在显著差异。研究结果强调了有针对性干预措施的迫切需要。这项研究有助于改善学习环境,并为热带岛屿教育环境的适应工作提供了一个模型。
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引用次数: 0
Flood risk prediction and modeling in Bauchi: Leveraging machine learning models and explainable AI for urban resilience 包奇洪水风险预测和建模:利用机器学习模型和可解释的人工智能提高城市韧性
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100490
Kamil Muhammad Kafi , Zakiah Ponrahono , Zulfa Hanan Ash’aari , Aliyu Salisu Barau

Introduction

Floods are amongst the most destructive weather and climate-related disasters, causing significant loss of life and property globally. Accurate flood risk prediction is crucial for improving disaster resilience and urban planning.

Methods

This study employed artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, specifically Random Forest (RF), XGBoost (XGB), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models, to predict and model flood risk in Bauchi, Nigeria. Additionally, Explainable AI analysis was utilized to interpret the model outcomes.

Results

The study revealed that high-risk areas have a history of frequent and severe flooding based on RF and XGBoost predictions. Settlement formality, elevation, population, and rainfall were the most influential factors in exacerbating flood risk. The RF model outperformed both XGBoost and SVM, with a precision of 0.857 and ROC-AUC of 0.93, while SVM performed the least, with a precision of 0.757 and ROC-AUC of 0.84.

Conclusion

The findings provide valuable insights for climate action, particularly in flood risk and exposure, and emphasize the role of urban planning and effective disaster risk reduction strategies in enhancing urban resilience.
洪水是最具破坏性的天气和气候相关灾害之一,在全球造成重大的生命和财产损失。准确的洪水风险预测对于提高抗灾能力和城市规划至关重要。方法采用人工智能(AI)技术,特别是随机森林(RF)、XGBoost (XGB)和支持向量机(SVM)模型,对尼日利亚包奇市的洪水风险进行预测和建模。此外,可解释的人工智能分析被用来解释模型结果。结果研究表明,基于RF和XGBoost预测,高风险地区具有频繁和严重的洪水历史。聚落形式、海拔、人口和降雨是加剧洪水风险的最重要因素。RF模型的精度为0.857,ROC-AUC为0.93,优于XGBoost和SVM, SVM的精度为0.757,ROC-AUC为0.84。研究结果为气候行动提供了有价值的见解,特别是在洪水风险和暴露方面,并强调了城市规划和有效的减灾战略在增强城市抗灾能力方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Climatic thresholds associated with increased dengue incidence across climate zones in Peru (2001-2022) 与秘鲁各气候带登革热发病率增加相关的气候阈值(2001-2022)
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100546
Wil Laura , Patricia Rivera , Cristina Davila , Pierre Velasquez , Susan Mateo , Carmen Yon , Betsabet Valderrama , Tania Ita Vargas

Introduction

Dengue fever has experienced a global rise in incidence and distribution, largely influenced by climate variability. Nonetheless, the specific climatic thresholds that trigger elevated dengue incidence rates, and the time lag between weather conditions and the case surges remain uncertain.

Methods

Average weekly climate variables along with weekly dengue incidence rates from 2001 and 2022 were analyzed in districts grouped by its climate zone. A cross-correlation technique was used to determine the time lag between climatic variables and dengue incidence, while a fine-tuned regression tree model was utilized to identify climatic thresholds linked to the incidence of dengue surges.

Results

Our findings indicate that specific combinations of climatic thresholds within each climate zone are associated with increased dengue incidence rate over a 20-week window, with air temperature having a frequent role. The North Coast had the highest average dengue incidence, with rates surging sevenfold when climatic thresholds were met (56 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The Central Coast and North-High Rainforest zones experienced the most significant increases, with incidence rates rising 53-fold from baseline levels (0.13 cases and 2.4 cases per 100,000, respectively).

Conclusions

This study identified distinct climatic thresholds that were met within a 20-week window preceding elevated dengue incidence rates in the six climate zones with the highest dengue prevalence in Peru. These insights enable dengue incidence rates forecasting weeks in advance using climatic data, offering a valuable tool for dengue mitigation and early intervention.
登革热的发病率和分布在全球范围内有所上升,这在很大程度上受到气候变化的影响。尽管如此,引发登革热发病率升高的具体气候阈值以及天气条件与病例激增之间的时间差仍然不确定。方法按气候区分组,分析2001年和2022年各区平均周气候变量和登革热周发病率。使用了一种相互关联技术来确定气候变量与登革热发病率之间的时间差,同时使用了一种微调回归树模型来确定与登革热激增发病率相关的气候阈值。结果表明,在20周的时间窗内,每个气候带内的特定气候阈值组合与登革热发病率增加有关,其中气温起着频繁的作用。北海岸的平均登革热发病率最高,当达到气候阈值时,发病率飙升七倍(每10万居民56例)。中部海岸和北部高热带雨林地区的发病率增长最为显著,比基线水平上升了53倍(分别为每10万人0.13例和2.4例)。本研究确定了在秘鲁登革热流行率最高的6个气候带登革热发病率上升前20周内达到的不同气候阈值。这些见解使我们能够利用气候数据提前数周预测登革热发病率,为减轻登革热和早期干预提供了宝贵的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Heatwaves mortality according to specific causes in Argentinian cities (2005-2019) 阿根廷城市按具体原因分列的热浪死亡率(2005-2019年)
IF 3.6 Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100549
Francisco Chesini , Matilde Rusticucci

Introduction

Heatwaves pose a significant natural threat to human health, with varying impacts on morbidity and mortality.

Materials and methods

This study aimed to characterize the risk of mortality associated with heatwaves (HWs), considering specific causes of death in 21 Argentine cities between 2005 and 2019. An ecological observational epidemiological study was conducted using a time series statistical approach, with generalized additive models. Data were sourced from the Ministry of Health and the National Meteorological Service (NMS). Deaths due to cardiovascular (ICD10: I00-I99), respiratory (J00-J99), and renal (N00-N99) causes during HWs and their temporal lags were analyzed.

Results

In 15 of the 21 cities, a significant increase in mortality was observed for the specific causes analyzed (cardiovascular: 13; respiratory: 10; and renal: 7) during HWs and their lags. Mortality increases were recorded in all regions, including Patagonia, where they were observed in two cities.

Conclusions

The findings of this study will contribute to the development of more effective health promotion and protection policies.
热浪对人类健康构成重大的自然威胁,对发病率和死亡率有不同的影响。材料和方法本研究旨在描述与热浪(HWs)相关的死亡风险,考虑了2005年至2019年间阿根廷21个城市的具体死亡原因。采用广义加性模型,采用时间序列统计方法进行了生态观察流行病学研究。数据来自卫生部和国家气象局(NMS)。分析了卫生保健期间因心血管(ICD10: I00-I99)、呼吸(J00-J99)和肾脏(N00-N99)原因导致的死亡及其时间滞后。结果在21个城市中,有15个城市在卫生保健及其滞后期的具体原因(心血管疾病:13例,呼吸疾病:10例,肾脏疾病:7例)死亡率显著增加。所有地区的死亡率都有所上升,包括巴塔哥尼亚的两个城市。结论本研究结果将有助于制定更有效的健康促进和保护政策。
{"title":"Heatwaves mortality according to specific causes in Argentinian cities (2005-2019)","authors":"Francisco Chesini ,&nbsp;Matilde Rusticucci","doi":"10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Heatwaves pose a significant natural threat to human health, with varying impacts on morbidity and mortality.</div></div><div><h3>Materials and methods</h3><div>This study aimed to characterize the risk of mortality associated with heatwaves (HWs), considering specific causes of death in 21 Argentine cities between 2005 and 2019. An ecological observational epidemiological study was conducted using a time series statistical approach, with generalized additive models. Data were sourced from the Ministry of Health and the National Meteorological Service (NMS). Deaths due to cardiovascular (ICD10: I00-I99), respiratory (J00-J99), and renal (N00-N99) causes during HWs and their temporal lags were analyzed.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>In 15 of the 21 cities, a significant increase in mortality was observed for the specific causes analyzed (cardiovascular: 13; respiratory: 10; and renal: 7) during HWs and their lags. Mortality increases were recorded in all regions, including Patagonia, where they were observed in two cities.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The findings of this study will contribute to the development of more effective health promotion and protection policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":75054,"journal":{"name":"The journal of climate change and health","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100549"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145269556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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The journal of climate change and health
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