The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of mortality and institutionalization in aged patients receiving Finnish supervised home care. The study was carried out in Central Finland, whose area and population is 5% of the total of the country. The subjects consisted of a sample of 312 patients (65 years or more). They were originally assembled to assess the effectiveness of a geriatric inpatient unit, the results of which have been published previously. Deaths were ascertained over at least three years and long-term care institutionalization over two years. The most powerful predictor of mortality was impaired ADL functioning. Predictors of long-term institutional care were impaired ADL functioning, impaired cognition and depression. These data may be helpful in resource allocation and targeting patients for the supervised home care programmes.