Under a narrow set of assumptions, Chamley (1986) established that the optimal tax rate on capital income is eventually zero. This study examines and extends that result by relaxing Chamley’s assumptions, one by one, to see if the result still holds. It does. This study unifies the work of other researchers, who have confirmed the result independently using different types of models and approaches. This study uses just one type of model (discrete time) and just one approach (primal). Chamley’s result holds when agents are heterogeneous rather than identical, the economy’s growth rate is endogenous rather than exogenous, the economy is open rather than closed, and agents live in overlapping generations rather than forever. (With this last assumption, the result holds under stricter conditions than with the others.)
{"title":"Taxing capital income: a bad idea","authors":"A. Atkeson, V. Chari, P. Kehoe","doi":"10.21034/QR.2331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2331","url":null,"abstract":"Under a narrow set of assumptions, Chamley (1986) established that the optimal tax rate on capital income is eventually zero. This study examines and extends that result by relaxing Chamley’s assumptions, one by one, to see if the result still holds. It does. This study unifies the work of other researchers, who have confirmed the result independently using different types of models and approaches. This study uses just one type of model (discrete time) and just one approach (primal). Chamley’s result holds when agents are heterogeneous rather than identical, the economy’s growth rate is endogenous rather than exogenous, the economy is open rather than closed, and agents live in overlapping generations rather than forever. (With this last assumption, the result holds under stricter conditions than with the others.)","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"65 1","pages":"3-17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77013884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 1995, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. This review places Lucas’ work in a historical context and evaluates the effect of this work on the economics profession. Lucas’ central contribution is that he developed and applied economic theory to answer substantive questions in macroeconomics. Economists today routinely analyze systems in which agents operate in complex probabilistic environments to understand interactions about which the great theorists of an earlier generation could only speculate. This sea change is due primarily to Lucas. This essay is reprinted from the Journal of Economic Perspectives (Winter 1998, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 171–86) with the permission of the American Economic Association.
1995年，罗伯特·卢卡斯(Robert E. Lucas, Jr.)被授予诺贝尔经济学奖。这篇综述将卢卡斯的工作置于历史背景中，并评估了他的工作对经济学专业的影响。卢卡斯的主要贡献在于他发展并应用了经济学理论来回答宏观经济学中的实质性问题。今天的经济学家经常分析在复杂的概率环境中运行的系统，以理解上一代伟大的理论家只能推测的相互作用。这种巨大的变化主要要归功于卢卡斯。本文转载自《经济展望杂志》(1998年冬季，第12卷，第2期)。1，第171-86页)，经美国经济学会许可。
{"title":"Nobel laureate Robert E. Lucas, Jr.; architect of modern macroeconomics","authors":"V. Chari","doi":"10.21034/QR.2321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2321","url":null,"abstract":"In 1995, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. This review places Lucas’ work in a historical context and evaluates the effect of this work on the economics profession. Lucas’ central contribution is that he developed and applied economic theory to answer substantive questions in macroeconomics. Economists today routinely analyze systems in which agents operate in complex probabilistic environments to understand interactions about which the great theorists of an earlier generation could only speculate. This sea change is due primarily to Lucas. This essay is reprinted from the Journal of Economic Perspectives (Winter 1998, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 171–86) with the permission of the American Economic Association.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"7 1","pages":"2-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87242173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In Scott Freeman’s (1996) model, payment system arrangements based on intermediated debt that is settled with money achieve higher welfare than does direct money payment. In a simplified version of Freeman’s model, welfare can be further improved and efficiency achieved by a monetary authority participating in a secondary market for debt or by a private intermediary using a common clearinghouse device. The analysis clarifies that ordinary private agents can assume the role of central bank or clearinghouse; no artificial agent, posited solely to play that role and endowed with special capabilities for it, is necessary. The institutional features required for a central bank or a clearinghouse to achieve efficiency, particularly features related to central bank independence, are discussed informally.
{"title":"Money and Debt in the Structure of Payments","authors":"E. Green","doi":"10.21034/QR.2322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2322","url":null,"abstract":"In Scott Freeman’s (1996) model, payment system arrangements based on intermediated debt that is settled with money achieve higher welfare than does direct money payment. In a simplified version of Freeman’s model, welfare can be further improved and efficiency achieved by a monetary authority participating in a secondary market for debt or by a private intermediary using a common clearinghouse device. The analysis clarifies that ordinary private agents can assume the role of central bank or clearinghouse; no artificial agent, posited solely to play that role and endowed with special capabilities for it, is necessary. The institutional features required for a central bank or a clearinghouse to achieve efficiency, particularly features related to central bank independence, are discussed informally.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"21 1","pages":"13-29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74168151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Great Depression in the United States was largely the result of changes in economic institutions that lowered the normal or steady-state market hours per person over 16. The difference in steady-state hours in 1929 and 1939 is over 20 percent. This is a large number, but differences of this size currently exist across the rich industrial countries. The somewhat depressed Japanese economy of the 1990s could very well be the result of workweek length constraints that were adopted in the early 1990s. These constraints lowered steady-state market hours. The failure of the Japanese people to display concern with the performance of their economy suggests that this reduction is what the Japanese people wanted. This is in sharp contrast with the United States in the 1930s when the American people wanted to work more.
{"title":"Some observations on the Great Depression","authors":"E. Prescott","doi":"10.21034/QR.2312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2312","url":null,"abstract":"The Great Depression in the United States was largely the result of changes in economic institutions that lowered the normal or steady-state market hours per person over 16. The difference in steady-state hours in 1929 and 1939 is over 20 percent. This is a large number, but differences of this size currently exist across the rich industrial countries. The somewhat depressed Japanese economy of the 1990s could very well be the result of workweek length constraints that were adopted in the early 1990s. These constraints lowered steady-state market hours. The failure of the Japanese people to display concern with the performance of their economy suggests that this reduction is what the Japanese people wanted. This is in sharp contrast with the United States in the 1930s when the American people wanted to work more.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"15 1","pages":"25-29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82972928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
AK growth models predict that permanent changes in government policies affecting investment rates should lead to permanent changes in a country’s GDP growth. Charles Jones (1995) sees no evidence for this prediction in data for 15 OECD countries after World War II: rates of investment, especially for equipment, have risen while GDP growth rates have not. This article provides evidence supporting the AK models’ prediction. Data back to the 19th century show a strong positive relationship between investment rates and growth rates and short-lived deviations from trends. A strong positive relationship also exists between average rates of investment and growth in postwar data for a large cross-section of countries. To account for the short-run deviations in rates that Jones highlights, the model he used is extended to allow policies to affect not only investment/output ratios but also capital/output ratios and labor/leisure decisions.
{"title":"A Defense of AK Growth Models","authors":"Ellen R. McGrattan","doi":"10.21034/QR.2242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2242","url":null,"abstract":"AK growth models predict that permanent changes in government policies affecting investment rates should lead to permanent changes in a country’s GDP growth. Charles Jones (1995) sees no evidence for this prediction in data for 15 OECD countries after World War II: rates of investment, especially for equipment, have risen while GDP growth rates have not. This article provides evidence supporting the AK models’ prediction. Data back to the 19th century show a strong positive relationship between investment rates and growth rates and short-lived deviations from trends. A strong positive relationship also exists between average rates of investment and growth in postwar data for a large cross-section of countries. To account for the short-run deviations in rates that Jones highlights, the model he used is extended to allow policies to affect not only investment/output ratios but also capital/output ratios and labor/leisure decisions.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"17 1","pages":"13-27"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89364118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article describes how and why official U.S. estimates of the growth in real economic output and inflation are revised over time, demonstrates how big those revisions tend to be, and evaluates whether the revisions matter for researchers trying to understand the economy’s performance and the contemporaneous reactions of policymakers. The conclusion may seem obvious, but it is a point ignored by most researchers: To have a good chance of understanding how policymakers make their decisions, researchers must use not the final data available, but the data available initially, when the policy decisions are actually made.
{"title":"Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research","authors":"D. Runkle","doi":"10.21034/QR.2241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2241","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes how and why official U.S. estimates of the growth in real economic output and inflation are revised over time, demonstrates how big those revisions tend to be, and evaluates whether the revisions matter for researchers trying to understand the economy’s performance and the contemporaneous reactions of policymakers. The conclusion may seem obvious, but it is a point ignored by most researchers: To have a good chance of understanding how policymakers make their decisions, researchers must use not the final data available, but the data available initially, when the policy decisions are actually made.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"10 1 1","pages":"3-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88077591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article argues that fiat money’s only technological role in an economy is to act as societal memory: money allows people to credibly record some aspects of their transactions and make that record accessible to other people. This recordkeeping role is demonstrated in the three standard paradigms of fiat money: the overlapping generations, turnpike, and search models. In these models, if a new economy is created by removing the money and replacing it only with a historical record of all transactions, known to everyone in the economy, then the original monetary allocation is still achievable as an equilibrium. This article is a less technical presentation of the ideas in the author’s study, “Money is Memory,” which is forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Theory. The article appears in the Minneapolis Fed’s Quarterly Reviewwith the permission of Academic Press.
{"title":"The Technological Role of Fiat Money","authors":"N. Kocherlakota","doi":"10.21034/QR.2231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2231","url":null,"abstract":"This article argues that fiat money’s only technological role in an economy is to act as societal memory: money allows people to credibly record some aspects of their transactions and make that record accessible to other people. This recordkeeping role is demonstrated in the three standard paradigms of fiat money: the overlapping generations, turnpike, and search models. In these models, if a new economy is created by removing the money and replacing it only with a historical record of all transactions, known to everyone in the economy, then the original monetary allocation is still achievable as an equilibrium. This article is a less technical presentation of the ideas in the author’s study, “Money is Memory,” which is forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Theory. The article appears in the Minneapolis Fed’s Quarterly Reviewwith the permission of Academic Press.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80413343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This essay argues that monetary theories should not contain an undefined object labeled money. Among existing theories that do not satisfy that dictum are models which assume that real balances are arguments of utility or production functions and models which assume cash-in-advance constraints. A main weakness of theories that do not satisfy the dictum is that they cannot address questions about which objects constitute money. Theories that do satisfy the dictum are those which specify assets by their physical properties and which permit the assets’ role in exchange to be endogenous. The essay briefly describes one such theory, a random matching model with assets that differ according to whether they throw off real dividends. This essay is reprinted, with permission, from the book Foundations of Research in Economics: How Do Economists Do Economics? (ed. Steven Medema and Warren Samuels), Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar Publishing, 1996.
{"title":"A Dictum for Monetary Theory","authors":"N. Wallace","doi":"10.21034/QR.2212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2212","url":null,"abstract":"This essay argues that monetary theories should not contain an undefined object labeled money. Among existing theories that do not satisfy that dictum are models which assume that real balances are arguments of utility or production functions and models which assume cash-in-advance constraints. A main weakness of theories that do not satisfy the dictum is that they cannot address questions about which objects constitute money. Theories that do satisfy the dictum are those which specify assets by their physical properties and which permit the assets’ role in exchange to be endogenous. The essay briefly describes one such theory, a random matching model with assets that differ according to whether they throw off real dividends. This essay is reprinted, with permission, from the book Foundations of Research in Economics: How Do Economists Do Economics? (ed. Steven Medema and Warren Samuels), Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar Publishing, 1996.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"6 1","pages":"20-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84128342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Changes in hours worked since 1950; This article describes changes in the number of average weekly hours of market work per person in the United States since World War II. Overall, this number has been roughly constant; for various groups, however, it has shifted dramatically from males to females, from older people to younger people, and from single- to married-person households. The article provides a unique look at how the lifetime pattern of work hours has changed since 1950 for different demographic groups. The article also documents several factors that may be related to the changes in hours worked: simultaneous changes in Social Security benefits, fertility rates, and family structure. The data presented are based on those collected by the U.S. Bureau of the Census during the 1950_90 decennial censuses.
{"title":"Changes in hours worked since 1950","authors":"Ellen R. McGrattan, Richard Rogerson","doi":"10.21034/qr.2211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.2211","url":null,"abstract":"Changes in hours worked since 1950; This article describes changes in the number of average weekly hours of market work per person in the United States since World War II. Overall, this number has been roughly constant; for various groups, however, it has shifted dramatically from males to females, from older people to younger people, and from single- to married-person households. The article provides a unique look at how the lifetime pattern of work hours has changed since 1950 for different demographic groups. The article also documents several factors that may be related to the changes in hours worked: simultaneous changes in Social Security benefits, fertility rates, and family structure. The data presented are based on those collected by the U.S. Bureau of the Census during the 1950_90 decennial censuses.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"34 1","pages":"2-19"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84069779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study describes a model built on the long-held view that the use of money as a medium of exchange is the result of an absence of double coincidence of wants. The model can account for two of the most challenging observations facing monetary theory: The disparate short-run and long-run effects of changes in the quantity of money and the coexistence of money and assets with higher rates of return. For both observations, the model's ability to provide a rich analysis depends on little more than the ingredients implicit in the absence-of-double-coincidence view.
{"title":"Absence-of-double-coincidence models of money: a progress report","authors":"N. Wallace","doi":"10.21034/QR.2111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.2111","url":null,"abstract":"This study describes a model built on the long-held view that the use of money as a medium of exchange is the result of an absence of double coincidence of wants. The model can account for two of the most challenging observations facing monetary theory: The disparate short-run and long-run effects of changes in the quantity of money and the coexistence of money and assets with higher rates of return. For both observations, the model's ability to provide a rich analysis depends on little more than the ingredients implicit in the absence-of-double-coincidence view.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"14 1","pages":"2-20"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83400305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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