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Relative survival: comparison of regressive models and advice for the user. 相对生存:回归模型的比较和对用户的建议。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/135952201317225480
R. Giorgi, G. Hédelin, P. Schaffer
BACKGROUND Relative survival is a method of analysis of failure-time data used to estimate the net survival. Cancer registries frequently use this method. The main regressive models are the Hakulinen and Tenkanen model, and the Esteve et al. model, which are easily used in practice thanks to their specific software (SURV and RELSURV, respectively). An assessment of the behaviour of the models is made, with the aim of giving advice for users of lifetime data in practice. METHODS Simulations were done by respecting, then violating, the basic hypothesis supporting the theoretical foundation of these two proportional hazard models (independence of the death and censor process, proportionality of risks). For each simulation, 100 files of either 100, 1,000, or 10,000 individuals were generated to assess the behaviour of the model. RESULTS Moderate censor rates, with or without proportionality assumption, lead to the use of the Hakulinen and Tenkanen model, especially for studies with little information. Non-proportionality of risks in the Hakulinen and Tenkanen model could be tested and analysed. If assumptions underlying the models are respected, the Esteve et al. model seems to be more precise. DISCUSSION The choice of a model in practice depends on its performance, and on the user's knowledge of statistics and computer science. Non-proportionality of risks is common in cancer registries. In theory, non-proportionality of risks could be taken into account for both relative survival models but, for the moment, it is feasible in routine only for the Hakulinen and Tenkanen model. Characteristics of the software should also be taken into account for routine relative survival analyses.
相对生存是一种分析故障时间数据的方法,用于估计净生存。癌症登记处经常使用这种方法。主要的回归模型是Hakulinen和Tenkanen模型,以及Esteve等人的模型,由于其特定的软件(分别为SURV和RELSURV),这些模型在实践中很容易使用。对模型的行为进行了评估,目的是为实际使用终身数据的用户提供建议。方法先尊重后违背支持这两种比例风险模型理论基础的基本假设(死亡与审查过程的独立性、风险的比例性)进行模拟。对于每个模拟,生成100、1000或10,000个体的100个文件,以评估模型的行为。结果适度的审查率,有或没有比例假设,导致使用Hakulinen和Tenkanen模型,特别是对于信息很少的研究。在Hakulinen和Tenkanen模型中风险的非比例性可以被测试和分析。如果模型背后的假设得到尊重,Esteve等人的模型似乎更精确。在实践中,模型的选择取决于它的性能,以及用户的统计学和计算机科学知识。风险的非比例性在癌症登记中很常见。理论上,两种相对生存模型都可以考虑风险的非比例性,但目前,它在常规中仅适用于Hakulinen和Tenkanen模型。软件的特点也应考虑到常规的相对生存分析。
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引用次数: 10
Estimation of disease progression parameters from case-control data: application to mammographic patterns and breast cancer natural history. 从病例对照数据估计疾病进展参数:应用于乳房x线摄影模式和乳腺癌自然史。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/135952201753173015
E. Couto, D. Harrison, S. Duffy, J. Myles, E. Sala, R. Warren, N. Day, R. Luben, H. Chen
BACKGROUND Estimations of mean sojourn time (MST) and sensitivity (S) in disease screening have been previously calculated from case-control data, using simple models which did not include covariates. Many studies have shown an effect of mammographic parenchymal pattern (MPP) on breast-cancer risk and tumour histology. We have expanded previous models on these to estimate MST and S with the effects of MPP as a covariate. METHODS Data were from a nested case-control study within the East Anglian screening programme, with 875 cases and 2,601 controls. Estimates of disease progression and screening parameters were based on conditional likelihood calculation, using a Markov process model. Ninety-five per cent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using the profile likelihood wherever possible and using a numerical estimate of the information matrix or the area under the likelihood curve where necessary. RESULTS We obtained estimates of the incidence of preclinical disease, rate of transition from preclinical to clinical and screening sensitivity, and evaluated the association of these parameters with mammographic parenchymal pattern. A higher incidence of preclinical disease was found for high-risk MPP [relative incidence = 1.62 (95% CI: 0.89; 2.73)]. However, no difference in progression rate from preclinical to clinical disease between different MPP was found. Dense MPPs were associated with decreased sensitivity [relative sensitivity = 0.24 (95% CI: 0.06; 15)]. Wide CIs were found, probably being a consequence of the relative sparsity of interval cancer data. DISCUSSION It is possible to estimate multiple parameters of disease progression and screening quality from case-control data. The reduction in sensitivity of the screening process associated with high-risk patterns presented here, could be of paramount interest for proposing new screening strategies, such as possible additional screening tools.
背景:疾病筛查中的平均停留时间(MST)和敏感性(S)的目标以前是使用不包括协变量的简单模型从病例对照数据中计算出来的。许多研究表明乳房x线摄影实质模式(MPP)对乳腺癌风险和肿瘤组织学的影响。我们已经扩展了之前的模型,以MPP作为协变量的影响来估计MST和S。方法数据来自东安格利亚筛查项目的巢式病例对照研究,共有875例病例和2,601例对照。疾病进展和筛选参数的估计基于条件似然计算,使用马尔可夫过程模型。95%置信区间(CI)的计算尽可能使用轮廓似然,必要时使用信息矩阵的数值估计或似然曲线下的面积。结果我们获得了临床前病变发生率、临床前向临床转移率和筛查敏感性的估计值,并评估了这些参数与乳腺实质形态的相关性。高危MPP的临床前疾病发生率较高[相对发病率= 1.62 (95% CI: 0.89;2.73)]。然而,不同MPP之间从临床前到临床疾病的进展率没有差异。密集mpp与敏感性降低相关[相对敏感性= 0.24 (95% CI: 0.06;15)]。发现了宽ci,可能是间隔期癌症数据相对稀疏的结果。从病例对照数据中估计疾病进展和筛查质量的多个参数是可能的。本文提出的与高风险模式相关的筛查过程的敏感性降低,可能是提出新的筛查策略(如可能的额外筛查工具)的最重要兴趣。
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引用次数: 7
Repeatability of sexual history in longitudinal studies on HPV infection and cervical neoplasia: determinants of reporting error at follow-up interviews. HPV感染和宫颈瘤变纵向研究中性史的可重复性:随访访谈中报告错误的决定因素。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/135952201753337149
N. Schlecht, E. Franco, T. Rohan, S. Kjaer, M. Schiffman, A. Moscicki, S. Duffy
BACKGROUND Misclassification of sexual history due to faulty recall or reporting bias may be the reason for variability in the association between sexual history and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection seen in studies conducted in different geographical areas. This study aimed to assess the repeatability of questionnaire information on sexual-history variables and their correlates, using information from repeat interviews by six international prospective cohort studies. METHODS The pooled dataset included over 14 775 women interviewed on two separate occasions, of whom 5690 returned for a third interview. At each return visit women were re-asked questions on age at first intercourse and number of sexual partners. The six cohorts originated from studies in Denmark, Costa Rica. San Francisco, Toronto, Montreal and São Paulo. RESULTS Exact agreement between age at first intercourse recalled on separate occasions ranged from 60-85%, whereas exact recall rates for number of sexual partners were substantially lower and more study-dependent, varying between 20% and 77%. The intraclass correlation coefficients gauging the degree of repeatability in responses ranged from 0.68 to 0.97 for age at first intercourse and 0.08 to 0.94 for number of sexual partners. Age, ethnicity, education and cohort membership were the strongest predictors of reporting error for both sexual history markers, although study design characteristics also seemed to play a role. HPV infection status seemed to influence recall of number of partners, but not age at first intercourse. CONCLUSIONS Information on sexual behaviours is not reliably collected in epidemiological studies of sexually transmitted diseases, which may influence the magnitude of relative risk estimates.
背景:在不同地理区域进行的研究中,性史与人乳头瘤病毒(HPV)感染之间的关联存在差异,原因可能是由于回忆错误或报告偏差而导致的性史分类错误。本研究旨在评估性史变量及其相关因素的问卷信息的可重复性,使用来自六个国际前瞻性队列研究的重复访谈信息。方法合并的数据集包括超过14775名女性在两次不同的场合接受采访,其中5690人返回第三次采访。在每次回访中,研究人员都会重新询问女性第一次性行为的年龄和性伴侣的数量。这六个队列来自丹麦、哥斯达黎加的研究。旧金山、多伦多、蒙特利尔和圣保罗。结果在不同场合回忆的第一次性行为年龄之间的行为一致性在60-85%之间,而性伴侣数量的确切回忆率则明显较低,更依赖于研究,在20% - 77%之间变化。第一次性行为的年龄在0.68到0.97之间,性伴侣的数量在0.08到0.94之间,这是衡量反应重复性程度的类内相关系数。年龄、种族、教育程度和群体成员是两种性史标记报告错误的最强预测因子,尽管研究设计特征似乎也起了作用。人乳头瘤病毒感染状况似乎影响回忆性伴侣的数量,但不影响第一次性行为的年龄。结论性传播疾病流行病学研究收集的性行为信息不可靠,这可能影响相对风险估计的幅度。
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引用次数: 16
The rating of public health research: a complex but necessary exercise. 公共卫生研究的评级:一项复杂但必要的工作。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/135952201317225435
J. Martin-Moreno
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引用次数: 1
A piecewise-homogeneous Markov chain process of lung transplantation. 肺移植的分段齐次马尔可夫链过程。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/13595220152601828
L. Sharples, G. I. Taylor, M. Faddy
BACKGROUND Markov and semi-Markov models are increasingly used in clinical and public health epidemiology to represent disease processes. We present a Markov model of events following lung transplantation as a case study in clinical epidemiology. METHODS A five-state discrete-time Markov model with two-way transitions between acute event states is applied to the analysis of 356 lung transplant patients. A two-state continuous time Markov model for chronic disease onset is fitted. Values of transition parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood using numerical methods. RESULTS Accurate estimates of acute and chonic event rates, and survival probabilities are calculated from transition probabilities. Costs attributed to different acute and chronic states are calculated. CONCLUSIONS Transition models provide a useful and flexible representation of acute and chronic events and can be used to explore the economic impact of changes in therapy.
背景:马尔可夫和半马尔可夫模型越来越多地用于临床和公共卫生流行病学来表示疾病过程。我们提出了一个马尔可夫模型的事件后肺移植作为临床流行病学的案例研究。方法应用急性事件状态双向转换的五状态离散马尔可夫模型对356例肺移植患者进行分析。拟合了慢性疾病发病的两态连续时间马尔可夫模型。利用数值方法,利用极大似然估计了过渡参数的值。结果根据转移概率可准确估计急性和慢性事件发生率及生存率。计算不同急性和慢性状态的费用。结论过渡模型提供了一种有效且灵活的急性和慢性事件表征,可用于探索治疗变化的经济影响。
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引用次数: 12
Two cheers for P-values? 为p值欢呼两声?
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/135952201753172953
S. Senn
P-values are a practical success but a critical failure. Scientists the world over use them, but scarcely a statistician can be found to defend them. Bayesians in particular find them ridiculous, but even the modern frequentist has little time for them. In this essay, I consider what, if anything, might be said in their favour.
p值是一个实际的成功,但却是一个关键性的失败。全世界的科学家都在使用它们,但几乎找不到一个统计学家为它们辩护。贝叶斯学派尤其认为它们很荒谬,但即使是现代的频率主义者也没时间理会它们。在这篇文章中,我考虑了什么,如果有的话,可能会对他们有利。
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引用次数: 82
Lymphocyte alterations after prolonged sunlight exposure. 长时间阳光照射后淋巴细胞的改变。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/135952201317225499
M. Kanariou, E. Petridou, E. Vrachnou, D. Trichopoulos
BACKGROUND It has been suggested that prolonged exposure to sunlight may induce systemic or local immune alterations, which may facilitate the development of skin cancer and, perhaps, non-Hodgkin's lymphona. The effects of prolonged sunlight exposure on peripheral blood cells were studied. METHODS Leukocytes and lymphocyte subpopulations of 12 volunteers aged 10-45 were investigated before and after a 3-week summer holiday in seaside resorts in Greece. Lymphocyte phenotypes were estimated using monoclonal antibodies and flow cytometry. RESULTS There were no significant differences with respect to total numbers of T cells, T-helper/inducer, T-suppressor/cytotoxic, B cells or HLA-Dr+ cells. However, we have found evidence of lymphocyte stimulation, reflected in an increase in cells expressing the interleukin-2 receptor (IL-2R) and, more specifically, an increase in the T cells expressing IL-2R and HLA-Dr antigens. An increase in natural killer cells has also been noticed. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that prolonged intense exposure to sunlight may be associated with immunostimulation, rather than immunosuppression.
研究表明,长时间暴露在阳光下可能导致全身或局部免疫改变,这可能促进皮肤癌和非霍奇金淋巴瘤的发展。研究了长时间阳光照射对外周血细胞的影响。方法对12名年龄在10-45岁的志愿者在希腊海滨度假胜地进行为期3周的暑假前后的白细胞和淋巴细胞亚群进行调查。利用单克隆抗体和流式细胞术估计淋巴细胞表型。结果两组患者T细胞总数、T辅助细胞/诱导剂数量、T抑制细胞/细胞毒性细胞数量、B细胞数量和HLA-Dr+细胞数量均无显著性差异。然而,我们发现了淋巴细胞刺激的证据,反映在表达白细胞介素-2受体(IL-2R)的细胞增加,更具体地说,表达IL-2R和HLA-Dr抗原的T细胞增加。人们还注意到自然杀伤细胞的增加。结论长时间强烈暴露在阳光下可能与免疫刺激有关,而不是免疫抑制。
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引用次数: 5
Subjective health status assessment: evaluation of the Italian version of the SF-12 Health Survey. Results from the MiOS Project. 主观健康状况评估:对意大利版SF-12健康调查的评价。来自MiOS项目的结果。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/135952201317080715
G. Kodraliu, P. Mosconi, N. Groth, G. Carmosino, A. Perilli, Gianicolo Ea, C. Rossi, Giovanni Apolone
BACKGROUND SF-12 is a generic short form health survey, developed in the USA from the original SF-36. It produces two summary measures evaluating physical and mental self-perceived health that are interchangeable with those from the SF-36. SF-12 has been successfully tested in nine Western European countries on large samples of the general population, where it has proved its brevity, comprehensiveness, reliability, validity and cross-cultural applicability. The present analysis directly assesses the SF-12 for the first time in various Italian settings, including the general population and specific patient groups. METHODS Data for this report were collected from five different samples; in four of them the SF-12 was used as a 'stand-alone' instrument, while in the other one (used as the reference) it was embedded in the SF-36. Descriptive statistics, Spearman's correlation coefficients, confirmatory factor analysis, ordinal uni- and multi-variate least squares regression model and covariance analysis were used to evaluate the summary measures in each sample, and across relevant subgroups. Studies were ordered according to the expected deviance, from the 'normal' health status of the reference group to the sample with the expected highest level of illness. RESULTS Overall, more than 11,000 subjects were evaluated. Response rates ranged from 63 to 100%, while missing items accounted only for 0.2-8.2% of all items. Uni- and multi-variate analyses showed a positive association between both physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores and their respective items in all examined samples. MCS scores were fairly similar across all samples, with the only exception being patients recently discharged from hospital, whose subjective mental health perception was higher than expected and the highest of all (52.2). Finally, we found a substantial impact of ageing on physical health perception, while the MCS was shown to be less sensitive to the age effect. CONCLUSIONS This analysis shows that the SF-12 has good validity, while some issues related to its most appropriate mode of administration and target groups might require further attention.
sf -12是在美国从原来的SF-36发展而来的一项通用的简短健康调查。它产生了两个评估身体和心理自我感知健康的总结措施,这些措施与SF-36中的可互换。SF-12已在9个西欧国家的普通人群中成功地进行了大样本测试,证明了它的简明性、全面性、可靠性、有效性和跨文化适用性。目前的分析首次在意大利的各种环境中直接评估了SF-12,包括一般人群和特定患者群体。方法本报告的数据来自5个不同的样本;其中四个SF-12被用作“独立”的仪器,而在另一个(用作参考)它被嵌入在SF-36中。采用描述性统计、Spearman相关系数、验证性因子分析、有序单变量和多变量最小二乘回归模型和协方差分析对每个样本和相关亚组的汇总测度进行评价。研究是根据预期偏差排序的,从参考组的“正常”健康状态到预期最高疾病水平的样本。结果总共评估了11,000多名受试者。应答率为63% ~ 100%,而缺失项目仅占所有项目的0.2 ~ 8.2%。单变量和多变量分析显示,在所有检测样本中,物理成分总结(PCS)和心理成分总结(MCS)得分及其各自的项目之间存在正相关。MCS得分在所有样本中都相当相似,唯一的例外是最近出院的患者,他们的主观心理健康感知高于预期,是所有样本中最高的(52.2)。最后,我们发现年龄对身体健康感知有实质性影响,而MCS对年龄影响不太敏感。结论本分析表明SF-12具有良好的效度,但其最合适的给药方式和目标人群等问题仍需进一步关注。
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引用次数: 157
Determining and visualising at-risk groups in case-control data. 在病例对照数据中确定和可视化高危人群。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/13595220152601819
R. Marshall
BACKGROUND Case-control research is often exploratory; to determine factors that increase risk. Often, regression methods are used to determine combinations of risk factors that predispose to excess risk. Recently, tree-based methods have also been proposed. Both have limitations. An alternative approach is suggested, based on a search algorithm to identify at-risk subgroups. METHODS Statistical methods to determine and visualise at-risk sub-groups in case-control studies are presented. The method of determining sub-groups--search partition analysis (SPAN)--searches among different Boolean combinations of risk factors. Sub-groups that have been identified are visualised by scaled rectangle diagrams. These show the size of sub-groups and the extent to which they overlap. RESULTS Theory is presented for applying the method to case-control data. The methods are illustrated by analysis of three case-control studies: one on sudden infant death syndrome, a second on heart disease and a third on child pedestrian injuries. CONCLUSIONS The methods provide a useful alternative to regression and tree-based analysis. They demarcate subgroups that, in the three examples, are easy to interpret and would not have been found by other methods. Scaled rectangle diagrams are a useful way to visualise the results.
病例对照研究往往是探索性的;确定增加风险的因素。通常,回归方法用于确定易导致过度风险的风险因素的组合。最近,基于树的方法也被提出。两者都有局限性。提出了另一种方法,基于搜索算法来识别有风险的子群体。方法介绍了病例对照研究中确定和可视化高危亚组的统计方法。确定子群的方法——搜索分区分析(SPAN)——在不同的风险因素布尔组合中搜索。已确定的子组通过缩放矩形图可视化。这些显示了子群体的大小和它们重叠的程度。结果为该方法在病例对照资料中的应用提供了理论依据。这些方法是通过对三个病例对照研究的分析来说明的:一个是关于婴儿猝死综合症的,第二个是关于心脏病的,第三个是关于儿童行人伤害的。结论该方法是一种有效的替代回归分析和树分析法的方法。在上述三个例子中,它们划分的子群体很容易解释,用其他方法是找不到的。缩放矩形图是可视化结果的有效方法。
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引用次数: 2
Transient or persistent asthma-like symptoms and lung growth over 2-year follow-up in pre-adolescent children. 青春期前儿童的短暂或持续性哮喘样症状和肺部生长随访2年。
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/135952201753173006
W. Jędrychowski, U. Maugeri, I. Bianchi, E. Flak
BACKGROUND The main purpose of this study was to assess the effect of transient and continued asthma-like symptoms on lung function growth in preadolescent children. METHODS The follow-up respiratory health survey has been conducted on the sample of 1,129 children aged 9 years over 2 years follow-up. The basic health end-points were the occurrence of asthma-like symptoms and slower lung function growth (SLFG), which was defined as the lung function gain over 2 years within the lowest quintile of the distribution of a given spirometric test. RESULTS Adjusted odds ratios (OR) for SLFG [forced vital capacity (FVC)] were significantly higher only in the children having continued symptoms [OR = 3.39: 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.39-8.27]. There was a consistent trend of adjusted ORs for SLFG [forced expiratory volume (FEV,) with the category of symptoms, where OR was 2.00 (95% Cl = 1.17-3.42) in children with transient symptoms: while 4.10 (95% Cl = 1.71-9.86) in children who had persistent symptoms. The corresponding ORs for SLFG [maximal mid-expiratory flow (FEF25_75c)] were 2.27 (95% Cl = 1.37-3.76); and 5.43 (95% Cl = 2.38-12.40). DISCUSSION The association between asthma-like symptoms and lung function gain in preadolescent children confirmed the clinical significance of the symptoms in question. The observed slower lung function gain in preadolescence may have implications for the development of chronic lung disease later in adulthood.
本研究的主要目的是评估短暂和持续的哮喘样症状对青春期前儿童肺功能发育的影响。方法对1129名9岁儿童进行为期2年的呼吸健康随访调查。基本健康终点为哮喘样症状的出现和肺功能生长(SLFG)的减慢,SLFG的定义是在给定肺活量测定分布的最低五分位数范围内2年内肺功能的增加。结果SLFG[用力肺活量(FVC)]的校正优势比(OR)仅在持续症状的儿童中显著升高[OR = 3.39: 95%可信区间(CI) = 1.39-8.27]。SLFG[用力呼气量(FEV)]调整后的OR值与症状类别的趋势一致,短暂症状患儿的OR值为2.00 (95% Cl = 1.17-3.42),而持续症状患儿的OR值为4.10 (95% Cl = 1.71-9.86)。SLFG[最大呼气中流量(FEF25_75c)]对应的or为2.27 (95% Cl = 1.37 ~ 3.76);5.43 (95% Cl = 2.38 ~ 12.40)。讨论哮喘样症状与青春期前儿童肺功能增加之间的关系证实了这些症状的临床意义。在青春期前观察到的肺功能增长缓慢可能对成年后慢性肺病的发展有影响。
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引用次数: 5
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Journal of epidemiology and biostatistics
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