Estimating the Size of the Potential Market for the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms. — The Kyoto Protocol incorporates three flexibility mechanisms to help Annex I countries to meet their Kyoto targets at a lower overall cost. This paper aims to estimate the size of the potential market for all three mechanisms over the first commitment period. Based on the national communications from 35 Annex I countries, it first estimates the potential demand in the greenhouse gas offset market. Then, it assesses the implications of the EU proposal for ceilings on the use of flexibility mechanisms. Finally, using the model based on the marginal abatement costs of 12 regions, the paper estimates the contributions of flexibility mechanisms to meet the total emissions reductions required of Annex I countries under the four trading scenarios.ZusammenfassungGeschÄtzter Umfang des potentiellen Marktes für die Kyoto-FlexibilitÄtsmanahmen. — Das Kyoto-Protokoll enthÄlt drei FlexibilitÄtsmechanismen, die es den im Anhang I genannten LÄndern erlauben sollen, die Kyoto-Ziele zu niedrigeren Gesamtkosten zu realisieren. Der Artikel will den Umfang des potentiellen Marktes für alle drei Mechanismen über die erste Verpflichtungsperiode schÄtzen. Gestützt auf die nationalen Verlautbarungen von 35 LÄndern schÄtzt der Autor als Erstes die potentielle Nachfrage auf dem Markt für Manahmen, mit denen die Diskrepanz zwischen wahrscheinlicher und angestrebter Treibhausgasmenge aufgefangen werden soll. Dann wird ermittelt, welche Implikationen sich aus dem EU-Vorschlag über eine Obergrenze beim Einsatz von FlexibilitÄtsmanahmen ergeben. Schlielich wird im Rahmen von vier Handelsszenarien abgeschÄtzt, welchen Beitrag die FlexibilitÄtsmanahmen liefern, wenn es darum geht, dass Anhang-I-LÄnder die gesamten Emissionen reduzieren. Dabei wird ein Modell benutzt, dem die Grenzkosten der Emissionsvermeidung in 12 Regionen zugrunde liegen.
估计《京都议定书》灵活机制的潜在市场规模。-《京都议定书》纳入了三个灵活机制，以帮助附件一国家以较低的总成本实现其《京都议定书》目标。本文旨在估计所有三种机制在第一个承诺期内的潜在市场规模。根据35个附件一国家的国家信息通报，报告首先估计了温室气体抵消市场的潜在需求。然后，它评估了欧盟关于使用灵活机制的上限提案的影响。最后，利用基于12个地区边际减排成本的模型，估算了在4种交易情景下，灵活性机制对满足附件一国家总减排要求的贡献。ZusammenfassungGeschÄtzter unfang des potential markets f r die Kyoto-FlexibilitÄtsmanahmen。-《京都议定书》enthÄlt drei FlexibilitÄtsmechanismen, die es den in Anhang I genannten LÄndern erlauben sollen, die Kyoto-Ziele zu niedrigeren Gesamtkosten zu realisieren。德国总理将主持潜在市场研究协会(unfang des potentiellenmarketes fr alle dremechanimen)和Verpflichtungsperiode schÄtzen。1 .在德国，我们将继续研究德国的发展潜力，研究德国的发展潜力，研究德国的发展潜力，研究德国的发展潜力，研究德国的发展潜力，研究德国的发展潜力。丹麦，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国，德国。Schlie lich wind in Rahmen von vier Handelsszenarien abgeschÄtzt, welchen Beitrag die FlexibilitÄtsmanahmen liefen, wenes darum geht, dass Anhang-I-LÄnder die gesamten emission reduzieren。[3]大北风电模型研究，12个区域的大气排放特征分析。
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