BMJ : British Medical Journal最新文献

Objectives: To examine changes in the male to female ratio in diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) over a 35 year period, providing temporal trends in diagnosis (incidence rate), the male to female ratio, and the age-cohort specific cumulative male to female ratio (cMFR).

Design: Population based, prospectively collected birth cohort study.

Participants: 2 756 779 liveborn children recorded in the Swedish medical birth register between 1985 and 2020.

Setting: Sweden.

Main outcome measure: Age-period cohort analysis investigating associations between ASD and age at diagnosis, calendar period, birth cohort, and sex, quantified by incidence rate ratios and associated two sided 95% confidence intervals.

Results: Among 2 756 779 individuals born in Sweden between 1985 and 2020, ASD was diagnosed in 78 522 (2.8%) by the end of follow-up (2022). The incidence rate for ASD increased with each five year age interval throughout childhood, peaking at 645.5 (per 100 000 person years) for the male cohort at age 10-14 years and 602.6 for the female cohort at age 15-19 years in 2020-2022, and then decreased. Age specific incidence of ASD increased for each calendar period and birth cohort between 1985 and 2020. The male to female ratio decreased with increasing age at diagnosis and, for those older than 10 years, by calendar period. For the final year of follow-up in 2022, the cumulative male to female ratio for incidence of ASD was 1.2 by age 20 years. Further projection of these trends suggested that the cumulative male to female ratio would reach parity at age 20 years by 2024.

Conclusion: Findings indicate that the male to female ratio for ASD has decreased over time and with increasing age at diagnosis. This male to female ratio may therefore be substantially lower than previously thought, to the extent that, in Sweden, it may no longer be distinguishable by adulthood. This finding highlights a need to investigate why girls and women receive diagnoses of ASD later than boys and men.

Objective: To compare the diagnostic accuracy of minipad collected menstrual blood versus clinician collected cervical samples to test for human papillomavirus (HPV) in the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 or worse (CIN2+/CIN3+).

Design: Cross sectional population based study.

Setting: Four urban and three rural communities in Hubei Province, China.

Participants: 3068 women aged 20-54 years with regular menstrual cycles, enrolled between September 2021 and January 2025.

Interventions: HPV testing using minipad collected menstrual blood, clinician collected cervical samples, and ThinPrep cytology. Women who tested HPV positive by either collection method or by cytology (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse) were referred for colposcopy directed biopsy sampling.

Main outcome measure: Diagnostic accuracy for detecting CIN2+ and CIN3+.

Results: Among 3068 participants, minipad based HPV testing showed a sensitivity of 94.7% (95% confidence interval 80.9% to 99.1%) for CIN2+ detection, comparable to clinician based HPV testing (92.1%, 77.5% to 97.9%; P=1.00). Although minipad HPV testing showed a lower specificity than clinician HPV testing (89.1%, 88.0% to 90.2% v 90.0%, 88.9% to 91.1%; P=0.001), the negative predictive value matched that of clinician HPV testing (99.9%, 99.7% to 100.0% v 99.9%, 99.7% to 100.0%; P=1.00). Both collection methods had a similar positive predictive value (9.9%, 7.1% to 13.5% v 10.4%, 7.4% to 14.3%; P=0.82) and screening efficiency (10.1 v 9.6 referrals per CIN2+ detected; P=0.82).

Conclusions: Minipad collected menstrual blood showed comparable diagnostic accuracy to clinician collected cervical samples for HPV testing for detecting CIN2+ and CIN3+.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06082765.