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Artificial Intelligence-Based Prediction of Spanish Energy Pricing and Its Impact on Electric Consumption 基于人工智能的西班牙能源价格预测及其对电力消费的影响
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.3390/make5020026
Marcos Hernández Rodríguez, Luis Gonzaga Baca Ruiz, D. Criado-Ramón, Maria del Carmen Pegalajar Jiménez
The energy supply sector faces significant challenges, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which affect the stability and efficiency of the energy system. In this study, we highlight the importance of electricity pricing and the need for accurate models to estimate electricity consumption and prices, with a focus on Spain. Using hourly data, we implemented various machine learning models, including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU, to forecast electricity consumption and prices. Our findings have important policy implications. Firstly, our study demonstrates the potential of using advanced analytics to enhance the accuracy of electricity price and consumption forecasts, helping policymakers anticipate changes in energy demand and supply and ensure grid stability. Secondly, we emphasize the importance of having access to high-quality data for electricity demand and price modeling. Finally, we provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of different machine learning algorithms for electricity price and consumption modeling. Our results show that the LSTM and GRU artificial neural networks are the best models for price and consumption modeling with no significant difference.
能源供应部门面临重大挑战,例如持续的COVID-19大流行和乌克兰持续的冲突,这些挑战影响了能源系统的稳定和效率。在本研究中,我们强调了电价的重要性,以及需要准确的模型来估计电力消耗和价格,并以西班牙为重点。利用每小时的数据,我们实现了各种机器学习模型,包括线性回归、随机森林、XGBoost、LSTM和GRU,来预测电力消耗和价格。我们的研究结果具有重要的政策意义。首先,我们的研究展示了使用先进的分析方法来提高电价和消费预测的准确性的潜力,帮助政策制定者预测能源需求和供应的变化,并确保电网的稳定。其次,我们强调获得电力需求和价格建模的高质量数据的重要性。最后,我们提供了不同机器学习算法在电价和消费建模中的优缺点。研究结果表明,LSTM和GRU人工神经网络是价格和消费建模的最佳模型,两者之间没有显著差异。
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引用次数: 0
A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Scheduling Problems with Improved Generalization through Order Swapping 基于顺序交换的改进泛化调度问题的强化学习方法
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.3390/make5020025
Deepak Vivekanandan, Samuel Wirth, Patrick Karlbauer, Noah Klarmann
The scheduling of production resources (such as associating jobs to machines) plays a vital role for the manufacturing industry not only for saving energy, but also for increasing the overall efficiency. Among the different job scheduling problems, the Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSSP) is addressed in this work. JSSP falls into the category of NP-hard Combinatorial Optimization Problem (COP), in which solving the problem through exhaustive search becomes unfeasible. Simple heuristics such as First-In, First-Out, Largest Processing Time First and metaheuristics such as taboo search are often adopted to solve the problem by truncating the search space. The viability of the methods becomes inefficient for large problem sizes as it is either far from the optimum or time consuming. In recent years, the research towards using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to solve COPs has gained interest and has shown promising results in terms of solution quality and computational efficiency. In this work, we provide an novel approach to solve the JSSP examining the objectives generalization and solution effectiveness using DRL. In particular, we employ the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm that adopts the policy-gradient paradigm that is found to perform well in the constrained dispatching of jobs. We incorporated a new method called Order Swapping Mechanism (OSM) in the environment to achieve better generalized learning of the problem. The performance of the presented approach is analyzed in depth by using a set of available benchmark instances and comparing our results with the work of other groups.
生产资源的调度(例如将作业与机器关联)不仅对节省能源,而且对提高整体效率起着至关重要的作用。在各种作业调度问题中,本文研究了作业车间调度问题(job Shop scheduling Problem, JSSP)。JSSP属于NP-hard组合优化问题(COP),通过穷举搜索解决问题变得不可行。通常采用先入先出、最大处理时间优先等简单的启发式方法和禁忌搜索等元启发式方法截断搜索空间来解决问题。对于大型问题,这些方法的可行性变得低效,因为它要么远非最优,要么耗时。近年来,利用深度强化学习(DRL)解决cop问题的研究引起了人们的兴趣,并在解决质量和计算效率方面取得了可喜的成果。在这项工作中,我们提供了一种新的方法来解决JSSP,使用DRL检查目标泛化和解决方案的有效性。特别是,我们采用了采用策略梯度范式的近端策略优化(PPO)算法,该算法在工作的约束调度中表现良好。我们在环境中引入了一种新的方法,称为顺序交换机制(OSM),以更好地实现问题的泛化学习。通过使用一组可用的基准实例并将我们的结果与其他小组的工作进行比较,深入分析了所提出方法的性能。
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引用次数: 1
Lottery Ticket Search on Untrained Models with Applied Lottery Sample Selection 应用彩票样本选择的未训练模型的彩票搜索
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-04-18 DOI: 10.3390/make5020024
Ryan Bluteau, R. Gras
In this paper, we present a new approach to improve tabular datasets by applying the lottery ticket hypothesis to tabular neural networks. Prior approaches were required to train the original large-sized model to find these lottery tickets. In this paper we eliminate the need to train the original model and discover lottery tickets using networks a fraction of the model’s size. Moreover, we show that we can remove up to 95% of the training dataset to discover lottery tickets, while still maintaining similar accuracy. The approach uses a genetic algorithm (GA) to train candidate pruned models by encoding the nodes of the original model for selection measured by performance and weight metrics. We found that the search process does not require a large portion of the training data, but when the final pruned model is selected it can be retrained on the full dataset, even if it is often not required. We propose a lottery sample hypothesis similar to the lottery ticket hypotheses where a subsample of lottery samples of the training set can train a model with equivalent performance to the original dataset. We show that the combination of finding lottery samples alongside lottery tickets can allow for faster searches and greater accuracy.
在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法,通过将彩票假设应用于表格神经网络来改进表格数据集。先前的方法需要训练原始的大型模型来找到这些彩票。在本文中,我们消除了训练原始模型的需要,并使用模型大小的一小部分网络来发现彩票。此外,我们表明我们可以去除高达95%的训练数据集来发现彩票,同时仍然保持相似的准确性。该方法使用遗传算法(GA)通过对原始模型的节点进行编码来训练候选剪枝模型,并根据性能和权重指标进行选择。我们发现搜索过程不需要很大一部分训练数据,但是当最终修剪的模型被选中时,它可以在完整的数据集上重新训练,即使它通常不需要。我们提出了一个类似于彩票假设的彩票样本假设,其中训练集的彩票样本的子样本可以训练出与原始数据集性能相当的模型。我们表明,将寻找彩票样本与彩票相结合可以实现更快的搜索和更高的准确性。
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引用次数: 1
A Diabetes Prediction System Based on Incomplete Fused Data Sources 基于不完全融合数据源的糖尿病预测系统
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.3390/make5020023
Zhaoyi Yuan, Hao Ding, Guoqing Chao, Mingqi Song, Lei Wang, Weiping Ding, Dianhui Chu
In recent years, the diabetes population has grown younger. Therefore, it has become a key problem to make a timely and effective prediction of diabetes, especially given a single data source. Meanwhile, there are many data sources of diabetes patients collected around the world, and it is extremely important to integrate these heterogeneous data sources to accurately predict diabetes. For the different data sources used to predict diabetes, the predictors may be different. In other words, some special features exist only in certain data sources, which leads to the problem of missing values. Considering the uncertainty of the missing values within the fused dataset, multiple imputation and a method based on graph representation is used to impute the missing values within the fused dataset. The logistic regression model and stacking strategy are applied for diabetes training and prediction on the fused dataset. It is proved that the idea of combining heterogeneous datasets and imputing the missing values produced in the fusion process can effectively improve the performance of diabetes prediction. In addition, the proposed diabetes prediction method can be further extended to any scenarios where heterogeneous datasets with the same label types and different feature attributes exist.
近年来,糖尿病患者越来越年轻化。因此,在数据来源单一的情况下,如何对糖尿病患者进行及时有效的预测就成为一个关键问题。同时,全球范围内收集的糖尿病患者数据来源众多,整合这些异构的数据来源对于准确预测糖尿病至关重要。对于用于预测糖尿病的不同数据来源,预测因子可能不同。换句话说,某些特殊的特征只存在于某些数据源中,这就导致了缺失值的问题。考虑到融合数据集中缺失值的不确定性,采用多次插值和基于图表示的方法对融合数据集中缺失值进行插值。采用逻辑回归模型和叠加策略对融合数据集进行糖尿病训练和预测。实验证明,将异构数据集结合起来,对融合过程中产生的缺失值进行代入,可以有效提高糖尿病预测的性能。此外,所提出的糖尿病预测方法可以进一步扩展到具有相同标签类型和不同特征属性的异构数据集存在的任何场景。
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引用次数: 0
3t2FTS: A Novel Feature Transform Strategy to Classify 3D MRI Voxels and Its Application on HGG/LGG Classification t2fts:一种新的MRI三维体素分类特征变换策略及其在HGG/LGG分类中的应用
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-04-06 DOI: 10.3390/make5020022
Abdulsalam Hajmohamad, Hasan Koyuncu
The distinction between high-grade glioma (HGG) and low-grade glioma (LGG) is generally performed with two-dimensional (2D) image analyses that constitute semi-automated tumor classification. However, a fully automated computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) can only be realized using an adaptive classification framework based on three-dimensional (3D) segmented tumors. In this paper, we handle the classification section of a fully automated CAD related to the aforementioned requirement. For this purpose, a 3D to 2D feature transform strategy (3t2FTS) is presented operating first-order statistics (FOS) in order to form the input data by considering every phase (T1, T2, T1c, and FLAIR) of information on 3D magnetic resonance imaging (3D MRI). Herein, the main aim is the transformation of 3D data analyses into 2D data analyses so as to applicate the information to be fed to the efficient deep learning methods. In other words, 2D identification (2D-ID) of 3D voxels is produced. In our experiments, eight transfer learning models (DenseNet201, InceptionResNetV2, InceptionV3, ResNet50, ResNet101, SqueezeNet, VGG19, and Xception) were evaluated to reveal the appropriate one for the output of 3t2FTS and to design the proposed framework categorizing the 210 HGG–75 LGG instances in the BraTS 2017/2018 challenge dataset. The hyperparameters of the models were examined in a comprehensive manner to reveal the highest performance of the models to be reached. In our trails, two-fold cross-validation was considered as the test method to assess system performance. Consequently, the highest performance was observed with the framework including the 3t2FTS and ResNet50 models by achieving 80% classification accuracy for the 3D-based classification of brain tumors.
高级别胶质瘤(HGG)和低级别胶质瘤(LGG)的区分通常是通过二维(2D)图像分析来实现的,这种分析构成了半自动化的肿瘤分类。然而,完全自动化的计算机辅助诊断(CAD)只能通过基于三维(3D)分段肿瘤的自适应分类框架来实现。在本文中,我们处理了一个与上述要求相关的全自动CAD的分类部分。为此,提出了一种基于一阶统计量(FOS)的三维到二维特征转换策略(32fts),通过考虑三维磁共振成像(3D MRI)信息的各个阶段(T1、T2、T1c和FLAIR)形成输入数据。在这里,主要目的是将三维数据分析转化为二维数据分析,以便将所提供的信息应用于高效的深度学习方法。换句话说,生成三维体素的二维识别(2D- id)。在我们的实验中,评估了8个迁移学习模型(DenseNet201, InceptionResNetV2, InceptionV3, ResNet50, ResNet101, SqueezeNet, VGG19和Xception),以揭示适合32fts输出的模型,并设计了提议的框架,对BraTS 2017/2018挑战数据集中的210个HGG-75 LGG实例进行分类。模型的超参数进行了全面的检查,以揭示要达到的模型的最高性能。在我们的试验中,双重交叉验证被认为是评估系统性能的测试方法。因此,在包含32fts和ResNet50模型的框架下,观察到最高的性能,在基于3d的脑肿瘤分类中达到80%的分类准确率。
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引用次数: 1
Generalized Persistence for Equivariant Operators in Machine Learning 机器学习中等变算子的广义持久性
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-03-24 DOI: 10.3390/make5020021
Mattia G. Bergomi, M. Ferri, A. Mella, Pietro Vertechi
Artificial neural networks can learn complex, salient data features to achieve a given task. On the opposite end of the spectrum, mathematically grounded methods such as topological data analysis allow users to design analysis pipelines fully aware of data constraints and symmetries. We introduce an original class of neural network layers based on a generalization of topological persistence. The proposed persistence-based layers allow the users to encode specific data properties (e.g., equivariance) easily. Additionally, these layers can be trained through standard optimization procedures (backpropagation) and composed with classical layers. We test the performance of generalized persistence-based layers as pooling operators in convolutional neural networks for image classification on the MNIST, Fashion-MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets.
人工神经网络可以学习复杂的、显著的数据特征来完成给定的任务。另一方面,基于数学的方法,如拓扑数据分析,允许用户设计完全了解数据约束和对称性的分析管道。基于拓扑持久性的推广,我们引入了一类原始的神经网络层。建议的基于持久性的层允许用户轻松地对特定的数据属性(例如,等价性)进行编码。此外,这些层可以通过标准优化过程(反向传播)进行训练,并与经典层组合在一起。我们在MNIST、Fashion-MNIST和CIFAR-10数据集上测试了广义持久性层作为卷积神经网络中图像分类池化算子的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Human Action Recognition-Based IoT Services for Emergency Response Management 基于人类行为识别的物联网应急响应管理服务
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.3390/make5010020
Talal H. Noor
Emergency incidents can appear anytime and any place, which makes it very challenging for emergency medical services practitioners to predict the location and the time of such emergencies. The dynamic nature of the appearance of emergency incidents can cause delays in emergency medical services, which can sometimes lead to vital injury complications or even death, in some cases. The delay of emergency medical services may occur as a result of a call that was made too late or because no one was present to make the call. With the emergence of smart cities and promising technologies, such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and computer vision techniques, such issues can be tackled. This article proposes a human action recognition-based IoT services architecture for emergency response management. In particular, the architecture exploits IoT devices (e.g., surveillance cameras) that are distributed in public areas to detect emergency incidents, make a request for the nearest emergency medical services, and send emergency location information. Moreover, this article proposes an emergency incidents detection model, based on human action recognition and object tracking, using image processing and classifying the collected images, based on action modeling. The primary notion of the proposed model is to classify human activity, whether it is an emergency incident or other daily activities, using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). To demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed emergency detection model, several experiments were conducted using the UR fall detection dataset, which consists of emergency and other daily activities footage. The results of the conducted experiments were promising, with the proposed model scoring 0.99, 0.97, 0.97, and 0.98 in terms of sensitivity, specificity, precision, and accuracy, respectively.
突发事件随时随地都可能发生,这给急救医疗从业人员预测突发事件发生的地点和时间带来了很大的挑战。紧急事件出现的动态性质可能导致紧急医疗服务的延误,有时可能导致严重的伤害并发症,在某些情况下甚至死亡。紧急医疗服务的延误可能是由于打电话太晚或没有人在场而造成的。随着智慧城市和诸如物联网(IoT)和计算机视觉技术等有前途的技术的出现,这些问题可以得到解决。本文提出了一种基于人的行为识别的物联网应急响应管理服务架构。特别是,该架构利用分布在公共区域的物联网设备(例如监控摄像头)来检测紧急事件,请求最近的紧急医疗服务,并发送紧急位置信息。此外,本文还提出了一种基于人体动作识别和目标跟踪的突发事件检测模型,该模型采用图像处理方法,在动作建模的基础上对采集到的图像进行分类。该模型的主要概念是使用卷积神经网络(CNN)和支持向量机(SVM)对人类活动进行分类,无论是紧急事件还是其他日常活动。为了证明所提出的应急检测模型的可行性,使用UR跌倒检测数据集进行了几次实验,该数据集由应急和其他日常活动镜头组成。实验结果令人满意,该模型的灵敏度、特异性、精密度和准确度分别为0.99、0.97、0.97和0.98分。
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引用次数: 0
A Survey on GAN Techniques for Data Augmentation to Address the Imbalanced Data Issues in Credit Card Fraud Detection 针对信用卡欺诈检测中数据不平衡问题的GAN数据增强技术研究
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-03-11 DOI: 10.3390/make5010019
Emilija Strelcenia, S. Prakoonwit
Data augmentation is an important procedure in deep learning. GAN-based data augmentation can be utilized in many domains. For instance, in the credit card fraud domain, the imbalanced dataset problem is a major one as the number of credit card fraud cases is in the minority compared to legal payments. On the other hand, generative techniques are considered effective ways to rebalance the imbalanced class issue, as these techniques balance both minority and majority classes before the training. In a more recent period, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are considered one of the most popular data generative techniques as they are used in big data settings. This research aims to present a survey on data augmentation using various GAN variants in the credit card fraud detection domain. In this survey, we offer a comprehensive summary of several peer-reviewed research papers on GAN synthetic generation techniques for fraud detection in the financial sector. In addition, this survey includes various solutions proposed by different researchers to balance imbalanced classes. In the end, this work concludes by pointing out the limitations of the most recent research articles and future research issues, and proposes solutions to address these problems.
数据增强是深度学习中的一个重要步骤。基于gan的数据增强可以应用于许多领域。例如,在信用卡欺诈领域,数据集不平衡问题是一个主要问题,因为与合法支付相比,信用卡欺诈案件的数量是少数。另一方面,生成技术被认为是平衡班级失衡问题的有效方法,因为这些技术在培训前平衡了少数班级和多数班级。在最近的一段时间里,生成对抗网络(gan)被认为是最流行的数据生成技术之一,因为它们被用于大数据环境。本研究旨在对信用卡欺诈检测领域中使用各种GAN变体的数据增强进行调查。在这项调查中,我们提供了几篇同行评审的关于GAN合成生成技术用于金融部门欺诈检测的研究论文的全面总结。此外,本调查还包含了不同研究者提出的平衡不平衡班级的各种解决方案。最后,本工作总结指出了最新研究文章的局限性和未来的研究问题,并提出了解决这些问题的解决方案。
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引用次数: 12
Painting the Black Box White: Experimental Findings from Applying XAI to an ECG Reading Setting 将黑匣子涂成白色:将XAI应用于心电读数设置的实验结果
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-03-08 DOI: 10.3390/make5010017
Federico Cabitza, Andrea Campagner, Chiara Natali, Enea Parimbelli, Luca Ronzio, Matteo Cameli
The emergence of black-box, subsymbolic, and statistical AI systems has motivated a rapid increase in the interest regarding explainable AI (XAI), which encompasses both inherently explainable techniques, as well as approaches to make black-box AI systems explainable to human decision makers. Rather than always making black boxes transparent, these approaches are at risk of painting the black boxes white, thus failing to provide a level of transparency that would increase the system’s usability and comprehensibility, or even at risk of generating new errors (i.e., white-box paradox). To address these usability-related issues, in this work we focus on the cognitive dimension of users’ perception of explanations and XAI systems. We investigated these perceptions in light of their relationship with users’ characteristics (e.g., expertise) through a questionnaire-based user study involved 44 cardiology residents and specialists in an AI-supported ECG reading task. Our results point to the relevance and correlation of the dimensions of trust, perceived quality of explanations, and tendency to defer the decision process to automation (i.e., technology dominance). This contribution calls for the evaluation of AI-based support systems from a human–AI interaction-oriented perspective, laying the ground for further investigation of XAI and its effects on decision making and user experience.
黑箱、亚符号和统计人工智能系统的出现激发了人们对可解释人工智能(XAI)的兴趣的快速增长,它既包括内在可解释的技术,也包括使黑箱人工智能系统对人类决策者可解释的方法。这些方法不是总是使黑盒透明,而是冒着把黑盒涂成白色的风险,因此不能提供增加系统可用性和可理解性的透明度,甚至冒着产生新错误的风险(即,白盒悖论)。为了解决这些与可用性相关的问题,在这项工作中,我们关注用户对解释和XAI系统的感知的认知维度。我们通过一项基于问卷的用户研究调查了这些感知与用户特征(例如,专业知识)的关系,该研究涉及44名心脏病学住院医生和人工智能支持的ECG阅读任务专家。我们的研究结果指出了信任、解释的感知质量和倾向于将决策过程推迟到自动化(即技术优势)的维度的相关性和相关性。这一贡献要求从面向人机交互的角度评估基于人工智能的支持系统,为进一步研究XAI及其对决策和用户体验的影响奠定基础。
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引用次数: 1
A Novel Pipeline Age Evaluation: Considering Overall Condition Index and Neural Network Based on Measured Data 基于实测数据的综合状态指数和神经网络的管道年龄评估方法
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.3390/make5010016
Hassan Noroznia, M. Gandomkar, J. Nikoukar, A. Aranizadeh, Mirpouya Mirmozaffari
Today, the chemical corrosion of metals is one of the main problems of large productions, especially in the oil and gas industries. Due to massive downtime connected to corrosion failures, pipeline corrosion is a central issue in many oil and gas industries. Therefore, the determination of the corrosion progress of oil and gas pipelines is crucial for monitoring the reliability and alleviation of failures that can positively impact health, safety, and the environment. Gas transmission and distribution pipes and other structures buried (or immersed) in an electrolyte, by the existing conditions and due to the metallurgical structure, are corroded. After some time, this disrupts an active system and process by causing damage. The worst corrosion for metals implanted in the soil is in areas where electrical currents are lost. Therefore, cathodic protection (CP) is the most effective method to prevent the corrosion of structures buried in the soil. Our aim in this paper is first to investigate the effect of stray currents on failure rate using the condition index, and then to estimate the remaining useful life of CP gas pipelines using an artificial neural network (ANN). Predicting future values using previous data based on the time series feature is also possible. Therefore, this paper first uses the general equipment condition monitoring method to detect failures. The time series model of data is then measured and operated by neural networks. Finally, the amount of failure over time is determined.
今天,金属的化学腐蚀是大型生产的主要问题之一,特别是在石油和天然气工业中。由于与腐蚀故障相关的大量停机时间,管道腐蚀是许多石油和天然气行业的核心问题。因此,确定油气管道的腐蚀过程对于监测其可靠性和减轻故障至关重要,这将对健康、安全和环境产生积极影响。输配电管道和其他结构埋(或浸)在电解液中,由现有条件和由于冶金结构,腐蚀。经过一段时间后,这会破坏一个活跃的系统和过程,造成损害。对植入土壤的金属来说,最严重的腐蚀是在失去电流的地方。因此,阴极保护(CP)是防止埋在土壤中的结构腐蚀的最有效方法。本文的目的是首先利用状态指数研究杂散电流对管道故障率的影响,然后利用人工神经网络(ANN)估计CP天然气管道的剩余使用寿命。使用基于时间序列特征的先前数据预测未来的值也是可能的。因此,本文首先采用通用的设备状态监测方法来检测故障。然后用神经网络对数据的时间序列模型进行测量和操作。最后,确定随时间变化的故障数量。
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引用次数: 3
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