Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-07-08DOI: 10.1007/s41247-025-00125-7
Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Hördur Valdimar Haraldsson
The gallium resources were assessed and used as input to long-term simulations using the WORLD7 model. The content of gallium in different mother ores has been estimated to be about 14.7 million tons of gallium. Much of this is not accessible because of low extraction yields, about 610,000 tons gallium appear to be extractable (4%) with present practices. The gallium content in all source metal refining residuals is about 51,000 ton/yr, but only a production of 1,374 ton/yr appears as the maximum with present technology and conditions. The actual gallium production was about 450 ton/yr in 2023. The gallium price is very sensitive to increases in demand, and production is not very likely to be able to rapidly increase. The simulations show that soft gallium scarcity sets in after 2028 and physical scarcity will occur about 2060. Better gallium extraction and recycling yields may push the scarcity date forward to 2100. 60% of the gallium demand for photovoltaic technology can be satisfied in the long term. To improve the situation and prevent scarcity, extractive access, gallium extraction yields, and recycling yields must be significantly improved to better than 50%. At present, the overall yields are 7-15%. Increasing extraction yields and recycling yields can reduce the shortage. The long-term sustainable extraction is under Business-as-Usual about 300 tons gallium per year, about 67% of the present production. This poses a major challenge to future plans for an energy transition, where under Business-as-usual (BAU), such a transition will remain hypothetical. The four EEA imaginaries, Ecotopia, The Great Decoupling, Unity in Adversity, and Technocracy for the Common Good, offer different policy pathways for managing future gallium scarcity through varying degrees of technological advancement, resource conservation, and avoidance strategy.
{"title":"Gallium: Assessing the Long-Term Future Extraction, Supply, Recycling, and Price of Using WORLD7, in Relation to Future Technology Visions in the European Union.","authors":"Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Hördur Valdimar Haraldsson","doi":"10.1007/s41247-025-00125-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s41247-025-00125-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The gallium resources were assessed and used as input to long-term simulations using the WORLD7 model. The content of gallium in different mother ores has been estimated to be about 14.7 million tons of gallium. Much of this is not accessible because of low extraction yields, about 610,000 tons gallium appear to be extractable (4%) with present practices. The gallium content in all source metal refining residuals is about 51,000 ton/yr, but only a production of 1,374 ton/yr appears as the maximum with present technology and conditions. The actual gallium production was about 450 ton/yr in 2023. The gallium price is very sensitive to increases in demand, and production is not very likely to be able to rapidly increase. The simulations show that soft gallium scarcity sets in after 2028 and physical scarcity will occur about 2060. Better gallium extraction and recycling yields may push the scarcity date forward to 2100. 60% of the gallium demand for photovoltaic technology can be satisfied in the long term. To improve the situation and prevent scarcity, extractive access, gallium extraction yields, and recycling yields must be significantly improved to better than 50%. At present, the overall yields are 7-15%. Increasing extraction yields and recycling yields can reduce the shortage. The long-term sustainable extraction is under Business-as-Usual about 300 tons gallium per year, about 67% of the present production. This poses a major challenge to future plans for an energy transition, where under Business-as-usual (BAU), such a transition will remain hypothetical. The four EEA imaginaries, Ecotopia, The Great Decoupling, Unity in Adversity, and Technocracy for the Common Good, offer different policy pathways for managing future gallium scarcity through varying degrees of technological advancement, resource conservation, and avoidance strategy.</p>","PeriodicalId":93527,"journal":{"name":"Biophysical economics and sustainability","volume":"10 2","pages":"4"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12238077/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144610520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-10DOI: 10.1007/s41247-024-00118-y
Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Antoniy Elias Sverdrup
{"title":"On the Supply Dynamics of Scandium, Global Resources, Production, Oxide and Metal Price, a Prospective Modelling Study Using WORLD7","authors":"Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Antoniy Elias Sverdrup","doi":"10.1007/s41247-024-00118-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-024-00118-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":93527,"journal":{"name":"Biophysical economics and sustainability","volume":"658 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140719243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-22DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00116-6
R. Hannesson
{"title":"A Simple Conceptual Model of Energy Transition","authors":"R. Hannesson","doi":"10.1007/s41247-023-00116-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-023-00116-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":93527,"journal":{"name":"Biophysical economics and sustainability","volume":"308 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139248662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-25DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00115-7
Ted Trainer
{"title":"Storage Implications of Australian Wind Data","authors":"Ted Trainer","doi":"10.1007/s41247-023-00115-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-023-00115-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":93527,"journal":{"name":"Biophysical economics and sustainability","volume":"183 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135219254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-11DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00114-8
Nolberto Munier
{"title":"Transition to Renewable Energy: An Attempt to Model the Mix of Existing and Future Generation Technologies for 2035 and 2050","authors":"Nolberto Munier","doi":"10.1007/s41247-023-00114-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-023-00114-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":93527,"journal":{"name":"Biophysical economics and sustainability","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136057467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-29DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00112-w
Maxwell Chukwudi Udeagha, M. Breitenbach
{"title":"The Role of Fiscal Decentralization in Limiting CO2 Emissions in South Africa","authors":"Maxwell Chukwudi Udeagha, M. Breitenbach","doi":"10.1007/s41247-023-00112-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-023-00112-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":93527,"journal":{"name":"Biophysical economics and sustainability","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84124667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-24DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00113-9
M. Raugei
{"title":"Addressing a Counterproductive Dichotomy in the Energy Transition Debate","authors":"M. Raugei","doi":"10.1007/s41247-023-00113-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-023-00113-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":93527,"journal":{"name":"Biophysical economics and sustainability","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73606519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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