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Repurposing holistic effects of metformin from diabetes management to skin wound healing: a 3PM-guided innovation. 二甲双胍从糖尿病管理到皮肤伤口愈合的整体效果:3pm引导的创新。
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-11-14 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00430-7
Shaoyu Zhou, Kun Zhang, Bingjie Cai, Jingan Li, Guangwen Yin

Metformin has recently garnered attention for its unique role in cellular metabolism regulation, prompting investigations into its potential applications in skin wound healing. Predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM) is the most advantageous healthcare framework and is appropriate for managing chronic illnesses. This review systematically outlines the key signaling pathways through which metformin modulates inflammatory responses via metabolic reprogramming. Integrating the 3PM concept, it explores innovative application strategies for metformin in wound management, thereby proposing a working hypothesis: metformin may be utilized for personalized prevention and treatment of skin wounds. It focuses on the latest research advances in the field of wound healing, particularly the potential of metformin in local applications, as well as studies combining it with innovative carriers such as hydrogels, nanofibers, and microneedles. These studies not only expand the therapeutic scope of metformin but also provide novel perspectives and solutions to the management of chronic wounds.

二甲双胍最近因其在细胞代谢调节中的独特作用而引起关注,促使人们研究其在皮肤伤口愈合中的潜在应用。预测性、预防性和个性化医疗(PPPM/3PM)是最有利的医疗保健框架,适用于管理慢性疾病。这篇综述系统地概述了二甲双胍通过代谢重编程调节炎症反应的关键信号通路。结合3PM理念,探索二甲双胍在创面管理中的创新应用策略,提出工作假设:二甲双胍可用于皮肤创面的个性化预防和治疗。它侧重于伤口愈合领域的最新研究进展,特别是二甲双胍在局部应用中的潜力,以及将其与水凝胶、纳米纤维和微针等创新载体相结合的研究。这些研究不仅扩大了二甲双胍的治疗范围,而且为慢性伤口的治疗提供了新的视角和解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Global, regional, and Chinese disease burden and trends of colorectal cancer, 1990-2021: An update from the GBD 2021 study and implications for predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine. 1990-2021年全球、地区和中国结直肠癌疾病负担和趋势:GBD 2021研究的最新进展及其对预测、预防和个性化医疗的影响
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-11-13 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00431-6
Yanqi Kou, Yujie Lu, Renwei Huang, Bilan Sun, Shicai Ye, Qing Zhang, Ke Yang, Kun He, Tingting Wu, Xiang Dong, Yajuan Chen, Lei Ge, Yuping Yang

Background: In the era of shifting healthcare, a "reactive" approach to colorectal cancer (CRC) management-that is, initiating treatment only after the onset of symptoms-remains a major global health challenge. This study uses the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data to quantify CRC burden and provide a foundation for developing targeted Predictive, Preventive, and Personalized Medicine (PPPM/3PM) strategies worldwide, especially in China.

Methods: We conducted a comprehensive analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease GBD 2021 study, obtained through VizHub and GBD Foresight Visualization tools. Statistical analyses were performed using R (4.4.2; available from: https://cloud.r-project.org/) and Biowinford (Available from: http://biowinford.site:3838/trial/), incorporating key parameters including age, sex, disease-specific factors, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and socio-demographic index (SDI) and modifiable risk factors, such as behavioral and dietary factors. This methodological framework is designed to identify high-risk populations and regions, thereby enabling predictive diagnostics and targeted prevention strategies as core tenets of the PPPM model.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized rate of CRC prevalence increased by 24.6%, with the number of prevalent cases rising from 4.26 million to 11.7 million. During the same period, China experienced an increase of 141.2% in its ASR, as its prevalent cases increased from 0.6 million to 3.6 million. While age-standardized death rates declined globally (-20.7%), regional disparities persisted, with men bearing a higher burden and DALYs rising in parts of Africa and Asia. For instance, the number of deaths in East Asia, North Africa and the Middle East was 287,900 and 37,400, respectively; the corresponding DALYs were 7,149,000 and 1,012,700. Major modifiable risks were high BMI, diet high in red meat, and low physical activity. Projections to 2050 indicate a continued rise in cases in China and Africa.

Conclusion: Our study provides evidence to support the shift towards PPPM in CRC care. With rising urbanization, dietary shifts, and aging populations, predictive diagnostics using Artificial Intelligence and big data, targeted prevention of modifiable risks, and personalized treatments based on genetic and tumor data could be essential. Detailed burden mapping forms the foundation for this proactive approach, especially in high-burden regions like China.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-025-00431-6.

背景:在医疗保健转变的时代,对结直肠癌(CRC)的“反应性”治疗方法(即仅在症状出现后才开始治疗)仍然是全球健康的主要挑战。本研究使用全球疾病负担(GBD) 2021数据来量化结直肠癌负担,并为在全球特别是中国制定有针对性的预测性、预防性和个性化医疗(PPPM/3PM)策略提供基础。方法:我们使用通过VizHub和GBD Foresight可视化工具获得的全球疾病负担GBD 2021研究数据进行了全面分析。使用R(4.4.2;可从https://cloud.r-project.org/获得)和Biowinford(可从http://biowinford.site:3838/trial/获得)进行统计分析,纳入关键参数,包括年龄、性别、疾病特异性因素、残疾调整生命年(DALYs)、社会人口指数(SDI)和可改变的危险因素,如行为和饮食因素。该方法框架旨在确定高危人群和地区,从而使预测性诊断和有针对性的预防战略成为公私合作模式的核心原则。结果:1990年至2021年,全球年龄标准化结直肠癌患病率上升24.6%,流行病例数从426万增加到1170万。同期,中国的ASR增加了141.2%,流行病例从60万增加到360万。虽然全球年龄标准化死亡率下降(-20.7%),但区域差异仍然存在,在非洲和亚洲部分地区,男性负担更重,残疾调整生命年上升。例如,东亚、北非和中东的死亡人数分别为287,900人和37,400人;相应的伤残调整年分别为714.9万和101.27万。主要可改变的风险是高BMI,饮食中多吃红肉和低体力活动。对2050年的预测表明,中国和非洲的病例数将继续上升。结论:本研究为支持在结直肠癌治疗中转向PPPM提供了证据。随着城市化进程的加快、饮食结构的变化和人口老龄化,利用人工智能和大数据进行预测诊断、有针对性地预防可改变的风险,以及基于遗传和肿瘤数据的个性化治疗可能至关重要。详细的负担地图是这一前瞻性方法的基础,特别是在中国这样的高负担地区。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,下载地址:10.1007/s13167-025-00431-6。
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引用次数: 0
Multimodal AI-based modeling of glaucoma progression: a 3PM-guided approach integrating structural, functional, and vascular patterns. 青光眼进展的多模式人工智能建模:一种整合结构、功能和血管模式的3pm引导方法。
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-11-06 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00429-0
Natalia I Kurysheva, Oxana Ye Rodionova, Alexey L Pomerantsev, Saina I Ponomareva, Olga Golubnitschaja

Background: Glaucoma remains the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. The development of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (3PM) strategies in the area is essential to address high inter-individual heterogeneity in glaucoma progression, in order to effectively protect stratified patients against disease progression.

Aim: This study aims to develop and validate a personalized, multimodal predictive modeling framework that integrates structural, functional, and vascular biomarkers for individualized risk stratification of progression rates in primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG).

Methods: Patients with POAG at varying stages were monitored for at least 36 months and underwent comprehensive multimodal evaluation, including structural optical coherence tomography (OCT), OCT angiography (OCT-A), automated perimetry, and biomechanical assessments. Predictive modeling was performed using Ranked Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (Ranked PLS-DA). Model performance and variable importance were established through Procrustes Cross-Validation and optimization procedures.

Results and data interpretation in the framework of 3pm: The final models included up to 27 parameters in early-stage POAG and 20 in advanced disease, leading to high prognostic accuracy (AUC up to 0.90) for classifying slow, moderate, and rapid rates of glaucoma progression. Feature importance analysis demonstrated that different biomarkers dominate at different disease stages: RNFL thickness, peripapillary microvascular dropout, parafoveal vascular density and corneal hysteresis in early POAG, while age, ganglion cell complex thickness, specific macular thickness measures, and peripapillary perfusion parameters were most predictive in advanced stages.

Conclusions and 3pm-relevant outlook: The proposed innovation utilizes multimodal predictive disease modeling that supports accurate risk stratification, personalized glaucoma management and individualized protection against disease progression. Successful clinical application requires initial profiling, regular model recalibration, and adaptive treatment strategies - altogether leading to improved visual outcomes in stratified patients and leveraging resources used.

背景:青光眼仍然是世界范围内不可逆失明的主要原因。在该领域发展预测、预防和个性化医疗(3PM)策略对于解决青光眼进展的高度个体间异质性至关重要,从而有效地保护分层患者免受疾病进展的影响。目的:本研究旨在开发和验证一个个性化的、多模式的预测建模框架,该框架集成了结构、功能和血管生物标志物,用于原发性开角型青光眼(POAG)进展率的个性化风险分层。方法:对不同阶段的POAG患者进行至少36个月的监测,并进行全面的多模式评估,包括结构光学相干断层扫描(OCT)、OCT血管造影(OCT- a)、自动视野测量和生物力学评估。采用排序偏最小二乘判别分析(rank PLS-DA)进行预测建模。通过Procrustes交叉验证和优化程序建立模型性能和变量重要性。3pm框架下的结果和数据解释:最终模型在早期POAG中包括多达27个参数,在晚期疾病中包括20个参数,导致对青光眼进展缓慢、中度和快速速度进行分类的预后准确性高(AUC高达0.90)。特征重要性分析显示,不同的生物标志物在不同的疾病阶段占主导地位:早期POAG的RNFL厚度、乳头周围微血管缺失、中央凹旁血管密度和角膜迟滞,而年龄、神经节细胞复体厚度、特定黄斑厚度测量和乳头周围灌注参数在晚期最具预测性。结论和下午3点相关展望:提出的创新利用多模式预测疾病建模,支持准确的风险分层,个性化青光眼管理和个体化疾病进展保护。成功的临床应用需要初始分析,定期模型重新校准和适应性治疗策略-共同改善分层患者的视力结果并利用所使用的资源。
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引用次数: 0
Glioma angiogenesis phosphoproteome landscape and biomarker sets identified with phenome-centered multiomics toward 3P medical approaches. 用以现象为中心的多组学方法鉴定胶质瘤血管生成磷蛋白质组景观和生物标志物集。
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-11-03 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00428-1
Xiaoxia Gong, Tianyao Guo, Chunlin Li, Zhijun Li, Xuejun Li, Lamei Yang, Na Li, Xianquan Zhan

Protein phosphorylation is an important molecular event in tumor angiogenesis that is a canonical hallmark in glioma. We hypothesize that the phosphoproteome and phosphorylation-mediated signaling networks are significantly different in glioma neovascular tissues compared to controls, which aimed to identify glioma angiogenesis phosphoproteomic landscape, phosphorylation-mediated signaling pathways, kinase-substrate networks, and phosphorylation biomarkers with integration of phosphoprotein data and multiomics data, for deep understanding of molecular mechanisms of glioma angiogenesis, discovery of effective antiangiogenesis therapeutic targets, and establishment of angiogenesis-related phosphorylation biomarker signature for patient stratification, early-stage diagnosis, and effective prognostic assessment, in the framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM, 3PM) approaches. This study used laser capture microdissection to isolate neovascular tissues from gliomas, followed by quantitative phosphoproteomics analysis, which identified 195 differentially phosphorylated proteins (DPPs) with 635 phosphosites and 58 hub DPPs. Pathway analysis of 195 DPPs found that cell adhesion-related pathways and HIF-1 signaling pathway were significantly regulated by phosphorylation to associate with glioma angiogenesis. Upstream kinase analysis found 321 upstream kinases to regulate the intratumoral neovascular tissue-associated phosphorylation, including 12 kinases that were differentially expressed in glioma neovascular tissues and 2 kinases (CAMK2D and MYLK) that were also DPPs, and 48 chemotherapeutic agents as kinase inhibitors such as staurosporine that had antiangiogenesis effects in glioma. Integrated analysis of DPPs and DEGs (differentially expressed genes) revealed 82 overlapped molecules; of them, SYN1, STX1A, PRKAR2B, PACSIN1, LSP1, HSPB1, and DMTN were associated with overall survival of glioma, and ANK1, L1CAM, and LSP1 were constructed as glioma prognosis signature. Immunohistochemistry confirmed hypophosphorylation at PDHA1-Ser293/300 in glioma angiogenesis. This study provided the first phosphoproteome landscape, kinase profile, phosphorylation-mediated signaling pathway network alterations in human glioma neovascular tissues, and effective tumor angiogenesis-based biomarkers for patient stratification, prognostic assessment, and targeted therapy in glioma. These findings provide concrete molecular targets for antiangiogenic therapy and establish clinically actionable biomarkers for glioma patient stratification in the 3PM framework.

Graphical abstract:

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-025-00428-1.

蛋白磷酸化是肿瘤血管生成过程中的一个重要分子事件,是胶质瘤的典型标志。我们假设与对照组相比,胶质瘤新生血管组织中的磷酸化蛋白质组和磷酸化介导的信号网络存在显著差异,旨在通过整合磷酸化蛋白质数据和多组学数据,鉴定胶质瘤血管生成的磷酸化蛋白质组学景观、磷酸化介导的信号通路、激酶-底物网络和磷酸化生物标志物,从而深入了解胶质瘤血管生成的分子机制。在预测、预防和个性化医学(PPPM, 3PM)方法的框架下,发现有效的抗血管生成治疗靶点,建立血管生成相关磷酸化生物标志物标记,用于患者分层、早期诊断和有效的预后评估。本研究使用激光捕获显微解剖技术从胶质瘤中分离新生血管组织,随后进行定量磷酸化蛋白质组学分析,鉴定出195个差异磷酸化蛋白(DPPs),其中635个磷酸化位点和58个枢纽DPPs。对195个DPPs的通路分析发现,细胞粘附相关通路和HIF-1信号通路受磷酸化显著调控,与胶质瘤血管生成有关。上游激酶分析发现321个上游激酶调节肿瘤内新血管组织相关磷酸化,其中12个激酶在胶质瘤新血管组织中差异表达,2个激酶(CAMK2D和MYLK)也是DPPs, 48个化疗药物作为激酶抑制剂,如staurosporine,在胶质瘤中具有抗血管生成作用。DPPs和DEGs(差异表达基因)的综合分析显示有82个重叠分子;其中SYN1、STX1A、PRKAR2B、PACSIN1、LSP1、HSPB1、DMTN与胶质瘤的总生存相关,构建ANK1、L1CAM、LSP1作为胶质瘤的预后标志。免疫组织化学证实在胶质瘤血管生成中PDHA1-Ser293/300的低磷酸化。该研究首次提供了人类胶质瘤新生血管组织中磷酸化蛋白组、激酶谱、磷酸化介导的信号通路网络改变,以及基于肿瘤血管生成的有效生物标志物,用于胶质瘤患者分层、预后评估和靶向治疗。这些发现为抗血管生成治疗提供了具体的分子靶点,并在3PM框架下为胶质瘤患者分层建立了临床可操作的生物标志物。图片摘要:补充资料:在线版本包含补充资料,网址为10.1007/s13167-025-00428-1。
{"title":"Glioma angiogenesis phosphoproteome landscape and biomarker sets identified with phenome-centered multiomics toward 3P medical approaches.","authors":"Xiaoxia Gong, Tianyao Guo, Chunlin Li, Zhijun Li, Xuejun Li, Lamei Yang, Na Li, Xianquan Zhan","doi":"10.1007/s13167-025-00428-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13167-025-00428-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Protein phosphorylation is an important molecular event in tumor angiogenesis that is a canonical hallmark in glioma. We hypothesize that the phosphoproteome and phosphorylation-mediated signaling networks are significantly different in glioma neovascular tissues compared to controls, which aimed to identify glioma angiogenesis phosphoproteomic landscape, phosphorylation-mediated signaling pathways, kinase-substrate networks, and phosphorylation biomarkers with integration of phosphoprotein data and multiomics data, for deep understanding of molecular mechanisms of glioma angiogenesis, discovery of effective antiangiogenesis therapeutic targets, and establishment of angiogenesis-related phosphorylation biomarker signature for patient stratification, early-stage diagnosis, and effective prognostic assessment, in the framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM, 3PM) approaches. This study used laser capture microdissection to isolate neovascular tissues from gliomas, followed by quantitative phosphoproteomics analysis, which identified 195 differentially phosphorylated proteins (DPPs) with 635 phosphosites and 58 hub DPPs. Pathway analysis of 195 DPPs found that cell adhesion-related pathways and HIF-1 signaling pathway were significantly regulated by phosphorylation to associate with glioma angiogenesis. Upstream kinase analysis found 321 upstream kinases to regulate the intratumoral neovascular tissue-associated phosphorylation, including 12 kinases that were differentially expressed in glioma neovascular tissues and 2 kinases (CAMK2D and MYLK) that were also DPPs, and 48 chemotherapeutic agents as kinase inhibitors such as staurosporine that had antiangiogenesis effects in glioma. Integrated analysis of DPPs and DEGs (differentially expressed genes) revealed 82 overlapped molecules; of them, SYN1, STX1A, PRKAR2B, PACSIN1, LSP1, HSPB1, and DMTN were associated with overall survival of glioma, and ANK1, L1CAM, and LSP1 were constructed as glioma prognosis signature. Immunohistochemistry confirmed hypophosphorylation at PDHA1-Ser293/300 in glioma angiogenesis. This study provided the first phosphoproteome landscape, kinase profile, phosphorylation-mediated signaling pathway network alterations in human glioma neovascular tissues, and effective tumor angiogenesis-based biomarkers for patient stratification, prognostic assessment, and targeted therapy in glioma. These findings provide concrete molecular targets for antiangiogenic therapy and establish clinically actionable biomarkers for glioma patient stratification in the 3PM framework.</p><p><strong>Graphical abstract: </strong></p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-025-00428-1.</p>","PeriodicalId":94358,"journal":{"name":"The EPMA journal","volume":"16 4","pages":"831-856"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12647507/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145644306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bidirectional associations between kidney function decline and carotid plaque progression: a longitudinal cohort study in the context of predictive, preventive, and personalised medicine. 肾功能下降与颈动脉斑块进展之间的双向关联:一项预测性、预防性和个体化医学背景下的纵向队列研究。
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-10-28 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00425-4
Jinqi Wang, Xiaoyu Zhao, Rui Jin, Zhiyuan Wu, Yanchen Zhao, Yunfei Li, Yueruijing Liu, Shuo Chen, Xiuhua Guo, Lixin Tao
<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Atherosclerosis and chronic kidney disease are major contributors to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality worldwide. However, how kidney function decline and carotid plaque (CP) progression influence each other over time remains unclear. In the context of predictive, preventive, and personalised medicine (PPPM/3PM), we investigated the bidirectional associations between kidney function decline and CP progression by leveraging both baseline and repeated measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and total plaque area (TPA). Understanding these relationships may facilitate early risk stratification at the subclinical stage and guide targeted preventive and personalised interventions for high-risk individuals, ultimately improving long-term cardiorenal outcomes.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We derived three sub-cohorts from the Beijing Health Management Cohort. Sub-cohort 1 included 11,657 participants who underwent at least two examinations between 2010 and 2018; cross-lagged panel analyses were conducted to evaluate the bidirectional associations between eGFR and TPA. Sub-cohort 2 comprised 4173 participants free of CP at baseline; Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations of eGFR slope and cumulative eGFR with incident CP. Sub-cohort 3 consisted of 7601 participants with baseline eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup>; Cox models were applied to examine associations between TPA slope, cumulative TPA, and kidney function decline. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement, and the net reclassification index were used to estimate the incremental predictive value.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In sub-cohort 1, cross-lagged panel analyses demonstrated a significant bidirectional association between eGFR and TPA after adjusting for confounders. Higher baseline eGFR predicted lower subsequent TPA (<i>β</i> = -0.029, <i>P</i> < 0.001), whereas higher baseline TPA predicted lower subsequent eGFR (<i>β</i> = -0.070, <i>P</i> < 0.001). In sub-cohort 2, during a median follow-up of 3.98 years, 922 participants developed incident CP. The eGFR slope (HR: 0.804, 95%CI: 0.750-0.862) and cumulative eGFR (HR: 0.805, 95%CI: 0.751-0.863) were negatively associated with incident CP. In sub-cohort 3, over a median follow-up of 4.86 years, kidney function decline occurred in 239 participants. The TPA slope (HR: 1.222, 95%CI: 1.133-1.317) and cumulative TPA (HR: 1.244, 95%CI: 1.136-1.362) were positively associated with kidney function decline. Finally, incorporating eGFR and TPA measures, particularly their slopes and cumulative levels, yielded greater incremental improvements in predicting incident CP and kidney function decline, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>These findings demonstrate a bidirectional association between kidney function decline and CP progression, supported by base
目的:动脉粥样硬化和慢性肾脏疾病是世界范围内心血管疾病(CVD)和过早死亡的主要原因。然而,随着时间的推移,肾功能下降和颈动脉斑块(CP)进展如何相互影响仍不清楚。在预测性、预防性和个性化医疗(PPPM/3PM)的背景下,我们通过利用基线和重复测量肾小球滤过率(eGFR)和总斑块面积(TPA)来研究肾功能下降和CP进展之间的双向关联。了解这些关系可能有助于在亚临床阶段进行早期风险分层,并指导对高危人群进行有针对性的预防和个性化干预,最终改善长期的心肾预后。方法:我们从北京健康管理队列中提取了三个亚队列。亚队列1包括11,657名参与者,他们在2010年至2018年期间至少接受了两次检查;进行交叉滞后面板分析以评估eGFR和TPA之间的双向关联。亚队列2包括4173名基线时无CP的参与者;Cox比例风险模型用于评估eGFR斜率和累积eGFR与事件CP的关系。亚队列3由7601名参与者组成,基线eGFR≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2;Cox模型用于检验TPA斜率、累积TPA和肾功能下降之间的关系。计算风险比(hr)和95%置信区间(ci)。采用c统计、综合判别改进和净重分类指数来估计增量预测值。结果:在亚队列1中,交叉滞后面板分析显示,在调整混杂因素后,eGFR和TPA之间存在显著的双向关联。较高的基线eGFR预示着随后较低的TPA (β = -0.029, P β = -0.070, P)。结论:这些发现证明了肾功能下降和CP进展之间的双向关联,得到了基线水平、斜率和累积暴露指标的支持。这种相互关系强调了综合、动态监测eGFR和TPA作为识别亚临床心肾风险的预测性诊断工具的潜力,从而指导PPPM/3PM范式下的个性化预防策略。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,下载地址为10.1007/s13167-025-00425-4。
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引用次数: 0
The use of predictive, preventive, and personalized medical approaches to optimize hypertension management. 使用预测性、预防性和个性化的医疗方法来优化高血压管理。
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-10-15 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00427-2
Ousman Bajinka, Lamarana Jallow, Yanjun Zhang, Xiaoxia Feng, Xianquan Zhan, Na Li

Background: Hypertension, a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, exhibits significant heterogeneity due to genetic, metabolic, and environmental influences. Traditional one-size-fits-all management is inadequate, necessitating predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (3PM) approaches.

Study objective: This review critically evaluates 3PM's application in hypertension, focusing on leveraging biomarkers, artificial intelligence (AI), and digital health for risk stratification, early intervention, and tailored therapies.

Key discussion: The 3PM framework leverages AI-driven integration of multi-omics, retinal imaging like ViT models, and hemodynamic profiling for risk prediction and treatment response forecasting; genetic profiling such as MTHFRUMOD variants, urinary proteomics (CKD273 classifier), and microbiome-guided nutrition for early intervention; and pharmacogenomics, digital phenotyping like smartphone-guided dosing, and novel therapies such as aprocitentan and finerenone for personalized efficacy. Specific findings include aprocitentan reducing systolic BP by -15.3 mmHg in resistant hypertension, UMOD-guided torasemide use lowering BP by 8.5 mmHg in carriers, and microbiome-based nutrition reducing systolic BP by 14% in hyperglycemic patients. Key challenges include limited biomarker validation, "black box" AI algorithms, high costs, interoperability gaps, and equity barriers.

Conclusion: 3PM transforms hypertension management by enabling proactive, individualized care. However, rigorous validation, affordable diagnostics, pragmatic trials, and equitable access are essential to bridge translational gaps and achieve personalized cardiology's full potential.

背景:高血压是心血管疾病的主要可改变危险因素,由于遗传、代谢和环境的影响,其表现出显著的异质性。传统的一刀切的管理是不够的,需要预测性、预防性和个性化的医疗(3PM)方法。研究目的:本综述批判性地评估了3PM在高血压中的应用,重点是利用生物标志物、人工智能(AI)和数字健康进行风险分层、早期干预和量身定制的治疗。重点讨论:3PM框架利用人工智能驱动的多组学集成、视网膜成像(如ViT模型)和血流动力学分析,用于风险预测和治疗反应预测;基因分析,如MTHFR、UMOD变异、尿蛋白组学(CKD273分类器)和微生物组指导的早期干预营养;药物基因组学,智能手机引导剂量等数字表型,以及用于个性化疗效的新疗法,如阿普西坦和芬芬酮。具体发现包括阿普昔坦使顽固性高血压患者的收缩压降低-15.3 mmHg, umod引导的托拉塞胺使携带者的血压降低8.5 mmHg,微生物营养使高血糖患者的收缩压降低14%。主要挑战包括有限的生物标志物验证、“黑箱”人工智能算法、高成本、互操作性差距和公平性障碍。结论:下午3点通过主动、个性化的护理改变了高血压的管理。然而,严格的验证、负担得起的诊断、务实的试验和公平的获取对于弥合翻译差距和实现个性化心脏病学的全部潜力至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Explainable multiomic screening for suboptimal health status in young adults: 3PM-guided innovation is envisaged. 可解释的多组筛查在年轻人的亚理想健康状况:3pm引导创新设想。
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-10-09 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00426-3
Qiao Lu, Peipei Liu, Gongchen Huang, Licui Liu, Yitong Ge, Jingyu Wang, Haifeng Hou, Youxin Wang

Objective: Suboptimal health status (SHS) is a reversible predisease stage and represents a key "window of opportunity" for predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (3PM/PPPM). However, current screening methods still rely mainly on subjective questionnaires and lack objective, interpretable, and actionable tools for timely intervention. We aimed to develop an exploratory prototype system that combines multiomic signals with explainable artificial intelligence to apply 3PM in young adults.

Methods and results: Transcriptomic, metabolomic, and gut microbiome data from 30 SHS patients and 35 healthy controls were analyzed. Seven machine learning algorithms were compared, with elastic net selected for its balance of accuracy, stability, and interpretability. Calibration and decision curve analyses were performed to test robustness and clinical utility. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were applied for both global and individual interpretations. The multiomic elastic net prototype achieved high and stable discrimination (accuracy 0.941, ROC-AUC 0.999), with strong calibration and net benefit. Beyond statistical performance, the system identified biologically plausible and modifiable molecular targets-such as reduced vitamin K and elevated glycerophosphocholine-that are directly amenable to preventive strategies. SHAP further provided individual-level profiles, revealing the specific biological drivers of SHS risk for each participant and offering a template for personalized recommendations.

Conclusions: This study proposes an innovative 3PM-guided prototype system for predicting suboptimal health status on the basis of multiomics data. We suggest embedding this tool into preventive healthcare to enable early risk prediction, applying personalized interventions to delay or reverse the progression of SHS, and providing individualized follow-up to support long-term health management. From a public health perspective, this approach may substantially reduce the future burden of chronic diseases by addressing risks at a reversible stage.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-025-00426-3.

目的:亚理想健康状态(SHS)是一个可逆的疾病前期阶段,代表了预测、预防和个性化医疗(3PM/PPPM)的关键“机会之窗”。然而,目前的筛查方法仍然主要依赖于主观的问卷调查,缺乏客观的、可解释的、可操作的工具来及时干预。我们的目标是开发一个探索性的原型系统,将多组学信号与可解释的人工智能相结合,应用于年轻人的下午3点。方法和结果:分析了30例SHS患者和35名健康对照者的转录组学、代谢组学和肠道微生物组学数据。比较了7种机器学习算法,选择了弹性网,因为它在准确性、稳定性和可解释性方面取得了平衡。进行校准和决策曲线分析以检验稳健性和临床实用性。Shapley加性解释(SHAP)适用于整体解释和个体解释。多组弹性网样机的识别精度为0.941,ROC-AUC为0.999,具有较强的定标性和净效益。除了统计性能之外,该系统还确定了生物学上合理和可修改的分子靶标,例如维生素K减少和甘油酰胆碱升高,这些靶标可直接适用于预防策略。SHAP进一步提供了个体水平的概况,揭示了每位参与者的SHS风险的特定生物学驱动因素,并为个性化建议提供了模板。结论:本研究提出了一种基于多组学数据的创新的3pm引导的亚理想健康状态预测原型系统。我们建议将该工具嵌入预防性医疗保健中,以实现早期风险预测,应用个性化干预措施延迟或逆转SHS的进展,并提供个性化随访以支持长期健康管理。从公共卫生的角度来看,这种方法可以在可逆阶段处理风险,从而大大减少慢性病的未来负担。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,可在10.1007/s13167-025-00426-3获得。
{"title":"Explainable multiomic screening for suboptimal health status in young adults: 3PM-guided innovation is envisaged.","authors":"Qiao Lu, Peipei Liu, Gongchen Huang, Licui Liu, Yitong Ge, Jingyu Wang, Haifeng Hou, Youxin Wang","doi":"10.1007/s13167-025-00426-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13167-025-00426-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Suboptimal health status (SHS) is a reversible predisease stage and represents a key \"window of opportunity\" for predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (3PM/PPPM). However, current screening methods still rely mainly on subjective questionnaires and lack objective, interpretable, and actionable tools for timely intervention. We aimed to develop an exploratory prototype system that combines multiomic signals with explainable artificial intelligence to apply 3PM in young adults.</p><p><strong>Methods and results: </strong>Transcriptomic, metabolomic, and gut microbiome data from 30 SHS patients and 35 healthy controls were analyzed. Seven machine learning algorithms were compared, with elastic net selected for its balance of accuracy, stability, and interpretability. Calibration and decision curve analyses were performed to test robustness and clinical utility. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were applied for both global and individual interpretations. The multiomic elastic net prototype achieved high and stable discrimination (accuracy 0.941, ROC-AUC 0.999), with strong calibration and net benefit. Beyond statistical performance, the system identified biologically plausible and modifiable molecular targets-such as reduced vitamin K and elevated glycerophosphocholine-that are directly amenable to preventive strategies. SHAP further provided individual-level profiles, revealing the specific biological drivers of SHS risk for each participant and offering a template for personalized recommendations.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study proposes an innovative 3PM-guided prototype system for predicting suboptimal health status on the basis of multiomics data. We suggest embedding this tool into preventive healthcare to enable early risk prediction, applying personalized interventions to delay or reverse the progression of SHS, and providing individualized follow-up to support long-term health management. From a public health perspective, this approach may substantially reduce the future burden of chronic diseases by addressing risks at a reversible stage.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-025-00426-3.</p>","PeriodicalId":94358,"journal":{"name":"The EPMA journal","volume":"16 4","pages":"725-737"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12647494/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145644366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Schisandra chinensis in noncommunicable disease management: therapeutic prospects within the PPPM framework. 五味子在非传染性疾病管理中的应用:PPPM框架下的治疗前景。
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-09-29 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00424-5
Beibei Bao, Peng Zhang, Yiting Li, Tao Tian, Yang Xie

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular diseases, respiratory disorders, And age-related degenerative diseases, account for 74% of global mortality, imposing heavy burdens on healthcare systems and global sustainable development. Current management strategies face challenges such as poor long-term drug adherence and complex comorbidities. Functional foods and nutraceuticals, particularly those rooted in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) that embody the "food-medicine homology" principle, have emerged as promising adjuncts for NCD prevention and treatment. Schisandra chinensis (SC) is an edible and medicinal plant with a long history. Rich in bioactive components such as lignans, polysaccharides, and terpenoids, it exhibits multi-targeted pharmacological activities and holds great potential in improving clinical diseases and progressing suboptimal health to optimal, making it a promising candidate for integrated health strategies.

Aims: This review aims to synthesize the mechanisms underlying SC's actions in NCD prevention and management, clarify its therapeutic and preventive roles across clinical populations and suboptimal health states, and explore its applications within the framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM).

Results: Preclinical evidence highlights SC's multi-target pharmacological activities, including anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and adaptogenic effects, which are key pathological drivers in the treatment of non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and age-related degenerative diseases. For clinical populations, SC supports therapeutic goals through liver protection in liver disease management, cancer-assisted immune regulation, neuroprotection, reduction of lung damage, and blood sugar regulation. In suboptimal health individuals characterized by stress-induced fatigue, subclinical inflammation, or impaired elasticity, the adaptive properties of SC offer specific benefits, helping the body resist stress and maintain homeostasis.

Conclusion: SC bridges therapeutic and preventive applications via its multifunctional properties, aligning with PPPM principles by enabling tailored interventions for NCDs and proactive health management. Its safety, multi-target activities, and compatibility with lifestyle medicine highlight its potential as a natural resource for integrated NCD care.

Recommendations: Further clinical trials are needed to validate dosage regimens and efficacy in diverse populations. Standardization of SC quality and exploration of synergistic effects with conventional therapies will facilitate its translation into personalized PPPM strategies.

背景:包括心血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病和与年龄有关的退行性疾病在内的非传染性疾病占全球死亡率的74%,给卫生保健系统和全球可持续发展带来沉重负担。目前的管理策略面临挑战,如长期药物依从性差和复杂的合并症。功能性食品和营养保健品,特别是那些根植于体现“食品-药物同源性”原则的中药产品,已成为预防和治疗非传染性疾病的有希望的辅助产品。五味子(Schisandra chinensis, SC)是一种历史悠久的食用和药用植物。它富含木脂素、多糖和萜类等生物活性成分,具有多靶点药理活性,在改善临床疾病和改善亚理想健康状态方面具有巨大潜力,是综合健康战略的一个有希望的候选者。目的:本文旨在综合SC在非传染性疾病预防和管理中的作用机制,阐明其在临床人群和亚理想健康状态中的治疗和预防作用,并探讨其在预测、预防和个性化医学(PPPM/3PM)框架中的应用。结果:临床前证据表明SC具有多靶点药理活性,包括抗炎、抗氧化和适应性作用,这是治疗心血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病和年龄相关退行性疾病等非传染性疾病的关键病理驱动因素。对于临床人群,SC通过肝脏疾病管理中的肝脏保护、癌症辅助免疫调节、神经保护、减少肺损伤和血糖调节来支持治疗目标。在以压力引起的疲劳、亚临床炎症或弹性受损为特征的健康状况不佳的个体中,SC的适应性特性提供了特定的益处,帮助身体抵抗压力并维持体内平衡。结论:SC通过其多功能特性架起了治疗和预防应用的桥梁,通过为非传染性疾病提供量身定制的干预措施和主动健康管理,与PPPM原则保持一致。其安全性、多靶点活性以及与生活方式药物的相容性突出了其作为非传染性疾病综合治疗的自然资源的潜力。建议:需要进一步的临床试验来验证不同人群的剂量方案和疗效。SC质量的标准化和探索与传统疗法的协同效应将有助于其转化为个性化的PPPM策略。
{"title":"<i>Schisandra chinensis</i> in noncommunicable disease management: therapeutic prospects within the PPPM framework.","authors":"Beibei Bao, Peng Zhang, Yiting Li, Tao Tian, Yang Xie","doi":"10.1007/s13167-025-00424-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13167-025-00424-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular diseases, respiratory disorders, And age-related degenerative diseases, account for 74% of global mortality, imposing heavy burdens on healthcare systems and global sustainable development. Current management strategies face challenges such as poor long-term drug adherence and complex comorbidities. Functional foods and nutraceuticals, particularly those rooted in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) that embody the \"food-medicine homology\" principle, have emerged as promising adjuncts for NCD prevention and treatment. <i>Schisandra chinensis</i> (<i>SC</i>) is an edible and medicinal plant with a long history. Rich in bioactive components such as lignans, polysaccharides, and terpenoids, it exhibits multi-targeted pharmacological activities and holds great potential in improving clinical diseases and progressing suboptimal health to optimal, making it a promising candidate for integrated health strategies.</p><p><strong>Aims: </strong>This review aims to synthesize the mechanisms underlying <i>SC</i>'s actions in NCD prevention and management, clarify its therapeutic and preventive roles across clinical populations and suboptimal health states, and explore its applications within the framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Preclinical evidence highlights <i>SC</i>'s multi-target pharmacological activities, including anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and adaptogenic effects, which are key pathological drivers in the treatment of non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and age-related degenerative diseases. For clinical populations, <i>SC</i> supports therapeutic goals through liver protection in liver disease management, cancer-assisted immune regulation, neuroprotection, reduction of lung damage, and blood sugar regulation. In suboptimal health individuals characterized by stress-induced fatigue, subclinical inflammation, or impaired elasticity, the adaptive properties of <i>SC</i> offer specific benefits, helping the body resist stress and maintain homeostasis.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong><i>SC</i> bridges therapeutic and preventive applications via its multifunctional properties, aligning with PPPM principles by enabling tailored interventions for NCDs and proactive health management. Its safety, multi-target activities, and compatibility with lifestyle medicine highlight its potential as a natural resource for integrated NCD care.</p><p><strong>Recommendations: </strong>Further clinical trials are needed to validate dosage regimens and efficacy in diverse populations. Standardization of <i>SC</i> quality and exploration of synergistic effects with conventional therapies will facilitate its translation into personalized PPPM strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":94358,"journal":{"name":"The EPMA journal","volume":"16 4","pages":"857-908"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12647515/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145644336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enhancing cardiovascular risk prediction in hypertensive adults: a 3PM-based evaluation of insulin resistance and arterial stiffness. 增强高血压成人心血管风险预测:基于下午三点的胰岛素抵抗和动脉僵硬度评估
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-09-28 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00421-8
Yulong Lan, Zhaogui Wu, Dan Wu, Lingyu Xu, Hongfa Wei, Chutao Wu, Youren Chen, Xiaolan Li, Shouling Wu

Objective: Hypertension management remains challenging due to coexisting insulin resistance (IR) and arterial stiffness-two silent yet synergistic drivers of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). This study aimed to evaluate their joint impact on ASCVD risk and assess their utility in predictive, preventive, and personalized strategies.

Methods: In this prospective cohort study of 30,094 adults with hypertension, IR was assessed using the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index (calculated as ln [TG (mg/dL) × FBG (mg/dL)/2]) and arterial stiffness via brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). Time-to-event analyses examined their individual and combined associations with ASCVD incidence.

Results: Over a median 5.6-year follow-up, 1655 ASCVD cases occurred. TyG exhibited a dose-response relationship with ASCVD across baPWV strata. Each 1-SD increase in TyG was associated with a higher ASCVD risk in the elevated baPWV subgroup (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07-1.27) than in the normal baPWV subgroup (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.21). A significant additive interaction was observed: individuals with both elevated TyG and baPWV had the highest ASCVD risk (HR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.66-2.25), with 33.4% of the joint risk attributable to their interaction. Adding both biomarkers to traditional models improved discrimination (C-index: 0.66 to 0.68) and reclassification (NRI: 18.63%, P < 0.001).

Conclusions: This study reveals a synergistic effect of IR and arterial stiffness on ASCVD risk and provides strong support for their integration into predictive models. This dual-biomarker approach enables early identification of high-risk hypertensive phenotypes and aligns with the predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM) paradigm to optimize cardiovascular outcomes through tailored intervention.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-025-00421-8.

目的:由于胰岛素抵抗(IR)和动脉僵硬共存,高血压管理仍然具有挑战性,这是动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病(ASCVD)的两种沉默但协同的驱动因素。本研究旨在评估它们对ASCVD风险的共同影响,并评估它们在预测、预防和个性化策略中的效用。方法:在这项对30,094名成年高血压患者的前瞻性队列研究中,使用甘油三酯-葡萄糖(TyG)指数(计算为ln [TG (mg/dL) × FBG (mg/dL)/2])和通过肱-踝脉波速度(baPWV)评估动脉僵硬度来评估IR。事件发生时间分析检查了他们与ASCVD发病率的个体和联合关联。结果:在平均5.6年的随访中,发生了1655例ASCVD病例。TyG与跨baPWV层的ASCVD呈剂量-响应关系。与正常baPWV亚组(HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.21)相比,baPWV升高亚组中TyG每增加1 sd, ASCVD风险就会增加(HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07-1.27)。观察到显著的加性相互作用:TyG和baPWV均升高的个体ASCVD风险最高(HR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.66-2.25),其中33.4%的联合风险可归因于它们的相互作用。将这两种生物标志物添加到传统模型中,提高了鉴别(C-index: 0.66 - 0.68)和重新分类(NRI: 18.63%)。结论:本研究揭示了IR和动脉硬度对ASCVD风险的协同作用,为将它们整合到预测模型中提供了强有力的支持。这种双生物标志物方法能够早期识别高危高血压表型,并与预测、预防和个性化医疗(PPPM)模式相一致,通过量身定制的干预来优化心血管结局。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,下载地址:10.1007/s13167-025-00421-8。
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引用次数: 0
Multivariable data-driven framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine for long-term atrial fibrillation risk in patients with new-onset obstructive sleep apnea. 新发阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停患者长期房颤风险预测、预防和个性化药物的多变量数据驱动框架
IF 5.9 Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-09-11 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13167-025-00422-7
Jian Zhu, Yijun Wang, Shoupeng Duan, Chenyu Liu, Wenyuan Yin, Yi Yang, Tongjian Zhu, Jun Wang

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) presents a significant challenge in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), as traditional risk factors often fail to accurately predict individual risk levels. This study exemplifies the paradigm of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM) by developing a comprehensive predictive nomogram for atrial fibrillation (AF) risk in patients with diabetes mellitus and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA).

Methods: This cohort study included 797 patients with new-onset OSA but without AF from January 2017 to December 2019. A total of 53 baseline clinical features were systematically collected and analyzed. Clinical feature pre-screening was conducted using the Boruta algorithm. The best predictive model was selected from nine machine learning algorithms based on area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) tool was used to explain model decisions.

Results: With a median follow-up period of 56.78 months, the development cohort consisted of 494 participants, whereas the time-series independent verification cohort comprised 303 participants. Key predictors identified included age, fasting blood glucose, very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, triglyceride-glucose index, autonomic nervous system indicators, apnea-hypopnea index, and average blood oxygen saturation. The XGBoost model was chosen for its superior performance, achieving an AUC of 0.922 and a Brier score of 0.071 in the time-series independent verification cohort. Calibration curve and DCA demonstrated that the XGBoost model exhibited the closest alignment with the ideal calibration line and provided the highest net clinical benefit across various threshold probabilities. SHAP analysis revealed significant contributions of individual variables to long-term AF risk.

Conclusions: This study proposes a comprehensive XGBoost-based PPPM/3PM framework that demonstrates superior clinical performance in predicting long-term atrial fibrillation risk among patients with new-onset OSA.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-025-00422-7.

导语:心房颤动(AF)对阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停(OSA)患者提出了重大挑战,因为传统的危险因素往往无法准确预测个体风险水平。本研究通过开发糖尿病和阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停(OSA)患者房颤(AF)风险的综合预测图,体现了预测、预防和个性化医学(PPPM/3PM)的范式。方法:本队列研究纳入2017年1月至2019年12月797例新发OSA但无房颤的患者。系统收集和分析了53项基线临床特征。采用Boruta算法进行临床特征预筛选。基于曲线下面积(area under The curve, AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis, DCA),从9种机器学习算法中选出最佳预测模型。SHapley加性解释(SHAP)工具用于解释模型决策。结果:中位随访期为56.78个月,发展队列包括494名参与者,而时间序列独立验证队列包括303名参与者。确定的关键预测因素包括年龄、空腹血糖、极低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、甘油三酯、甘油三酯-葡萄糖指数、自主神经系统指标、呼吸暂停-低通气指数和平均血氧饱和度。选择XGBoost模型是因为其性能优越,在时间序列独立验证队列中AUC为0.922,Brier评分为0.071。校准曲线和DCA表明,XGBoost模型与理想校准线最接近,并在各种阈值概率下提供最高的净临床效益。SHAP分析揭示了个体变量对长期房颤风险的显著贡献。结论:本研究提出了一个全面的基于xgboost的PPPM/3PM框架,该框架在预测新发OSA患者的长期房颤风险方面具有优越的临床性能。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,下载地址:10.1007/s13167-025-00422-7。
{"title":"Multivariable data-driven framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine for long-term atrial fibrillation risk in patients with new-onset obstructive sleep apnea.","authors":"Jian Zhu, Yijun Wang, Shoupeng Duan, Chenyu Liu, Wenyuan Yin, Yi Yang, Tongjian Zhu, Jun Wang","doi":"10.1007/s13167-025-00422-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13167-025-00422-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Atrial fibrillation (AF) presents a significant challenge in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), as traditional risk factors often fail to accurately predict individual risk levels. This study exemplifies the paradigm of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM) by developing a comprehensive predictive nomogram for atrial fibrillation (AF) risk in patients with diabetes mellitus and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This cohort study included 797 patients with new-onset OSA but without AF from January 2017 to December 2019. A total of 53 baseline clinical features were systematically collected and analyzed. Clinical feature pre-screening was conducted using the Boruta algorithm. The best predictive model was selected from nine machine learning algorithms based on area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) tool was used to explain model decisions.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>With a median follow-up period of 56.78 months, the development cohort consisted of 494 participants, whereas the time-series independent verification cohort comprised 303 participants. Key predictors identified included age, fasting blood glucose, very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, triglyceride-glucose index, autonomic nervous system indicators, apnea-hypopnea index, and average blood oxygen saturation. The XGBoost model was chosen for its superior performance, achieving an AUC of 0.922 and a Brier score of 0.071 in the time-series independent verification cohort. Calibration curve and DCA demonstrated that the XGBoost model exhibited the closest alignment with the ideal calibration line and provided the highest net clinical benefit across various threshold probabilities. SHAP analysis revealed significant contributions of individual variables to long-term AF risk.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study proposes a comprehensive XGBoost-based PPPM/3PM framework that demonstrates superior clinical performance in predicting long-term atrial fibrillation risk among patients with new-onset OSA.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-025-00422-7.</p>","PeriodicalId":94358,"journal":{"name":"The EPMA journal","volume":"16 4","pages":"761-772"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12647458/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145644364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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