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Stylized facts of cryptocurrency markets: Robust definitions and inference approaches 加密货币市场的风格化事实：稳健的定义和推理方法

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2026.101440

Nursultan Abdullaev , Rustam Ibragimov

Several works in the literature have focused on the analysis of key stylized facts of financial and cryptocurrency returns linked to fundamental problems of efficiency and predictability of financial and cryptocurrency markets, including heavy tails, absence of linear autocorrelations and volatility clustering. This paper provides a study of the above properties of Bitcoin and Ethereum markets using recently proposed robust, valid and statistically justified definitions of and methods for inference on market (in)efficiency, volatility clustering, and nonlinear dependence in return time series. In contrast to existing approaches, the inference methods used in the analysis are robust to heavy-tailedness, dependence and nonlinear dynamics of returns. The results of the study indicate that Bitcoin and Ethereum returns exhibit heavy tails, uncorrelatedness over time and volatility clustering largely similar to those in developed financial markets. The analysis has important implications for cryptocurrency pricing, market efficiency, econometric modelling, risk management, market participants and regulators.

文献中的几部作品侧重于分析金融和加密货币回报的关键风式化事实，这些事实与金融和加密货币市场的效率和可预测性的基本问题有关，包括重尾、缺乏线性自相关性和波动性聚类。本文对比特币和以太坊市场的上述属性进行了研究，使用了最近提出的稳健、有效和统计合理的定义和方法来推断市场效率、波动聚类和回报时间序列中的非线性依赖。与现有方法相比，分析中使用的推理方法对收益的重尾性、依赖性和非线性动态具有鲁棒性。研究结果表明，比特币和以太坊的回报表现出沉重的尾巴，随着时间的推移不相关，波动性聚类在很大程度上与发达金融市场相似。该分析对加密货币定价、市场效率、计量经济模型、风险管理、市场参与者和监管机构具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

Bank ownership, governance changes, and small business lending in Indonesia: A two-stage estimation approach 印度尼西亚的银行所有权、治理变化和小企业贷款：两阶段评估方法

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2026.101452

Ririen Setiati Riyanti , Iván Arribas , Silvia Pazzi , Emili Tortosa-Ausina

This study examines how bank ownership types and governance changes affect small business lending in Indonesia from 2009–2019. Using a novel two-stage estimation approach proposed by Kripfganz and Schwarz (2019), we analyse differences between domestic and foreign banks, as well as the static, selection, and dynamic effects of ownership changes. The Indonesian context is particularly relevant due to banking sector reforms, including foreign acquisition limits and consolidation policies implemented after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. We contribute to the literature by: (i) focusing on a large, profitable emerging market dominated by government-owned banks; (ii) investigating both static ownership and structural changes; (iii) including foreign acquiring banks in our analysis of foreign ownership; and (iv) applying an innovative econometric methodology that offers advantages over traditional GMM estimators. We find no statistically significant differences in the proportion of small business loans between these bank types, whether measured as a percentage of total loans or total assets. However, when analysing sub-periods (2009–2014 and 2015–2019), the results suggest that foreign banks became less oriented towards SME lending after 2015, coinciding with changes in the Indonesian banking industry. The differences among static, selection and dynamic effects are only substantial regarding their magnitude, but not their significance. Hence, by examining whether the effects of changes in governance on small business lending remain constant or evolve over time following ownership transitions, we provide insights into the sustainability of banking sector reforms and their impact on SME financing. Our findings also have implications for understanding how SME access to finance in emerging markets is impacted by bank governance. In addition, our methodological application could be considered to reassess the impact of different bank property types in other contexts, given the robustness it confers to the results.

本研究考察了2009-2019年印尼银行所有权类型和治理变化对小企业贷款的影响。使用Kripfganz和Schwarz（2019）提出的一种新的两阶段估计方法，我们分析了国内外银行之间的差异，以及所有权变化的静态、选择和动态影响。由于印尼的银行业改革，包括1997-1998年亚洲金融危机后实施的外国收购限制和整合政策，印尼的情况尤为重要。我们对文献的贡献是：(i)关注由国有银行主导的大型、盈利的新兴市场；（ii）调查静态所有权和结构变化；（iii）将外资收购银行纳入我们对外资所有权的分析；（iv）应用创新的计量经济学方法，提供优于传统GMM估计器的优势。我们发现，无论是以占总贷款还是总资产的百分比来衡量，这些银行类型之间的小企业贷款比例在统计上没有显著差异。然而，在分析子时期（2009-2014年和2015 - 2019年）时，结果表明，外国银行在2015年之后变得不那么倾向于中小企业贷款，这与印度尼西亚银行业的变化相吻合。静态效应、选择效应和动态效应之间的差异只是在量级上有实质性的区别，而不是在意义上有实质性的区别。因此，通过研究治理变化对小企业贷款的影响是保持不变，还是在所有权转换后随着时间的推移而变化，我们可以深入了解银行业改革的可持续性及其对中小企业融资的影响。我们的研究结果也有助于理解新兴市场中小企业融资渠道如何受到银行治理的影响。此外，考虑到我们的方法应用赋予结果的稳健性，可以考虑重新评估不同银行资产类型在其他情况下的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Are machines better predictors of insider trading? 机器能更好地预测内幕交易吗？

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101237

Solmaz Batebi, Ahmed Elnahas

This study examines whether machine learning (ML) techniques can improve the prediction of insider trading behaviour compared with traditional linear approaches. Using a comprehensive sample of U.S. insider trading data from 2000 to 2022, we compare ensemble learning methods—random forest and extreme gradient boosting—to logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). We implement Bayesian hyperparameter optimisation to improve model tuning and employ Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values to maintain interpretability and identify the principal economic determinants of insider trading decisions. Additionally, we apply Gaussian Thompson sampling to evaluate competing hypotheses about insiders' market-timing motives. The results demonstrate that ML methods substantially outperform linear models in predicting both the likelihood and magnitude of insider sales, with predictive gains particularly pronounced among female insiders. SHAP analysis indicates that incentive structures play a stronger role for male insiders, whereas female trading behaviour appears more closely associated with private information about future firm performance.

本研究考察了与传统线性方法相比，机器学习（ML）技术是否可以改善对内幕交易行为的预测。使用2000年至2022年美国内幕交易数据的综合样本，我们比较了集成学习方法-随机森林和极端梯度增强-与逻辑回归和最小绝对收缩和选择算子（LASSO）。我们实施贝叶斯超参数优化来改进模型调整，并采用Shapley加性解释（SHAP）值来保持可解释性并确定内幕交易决策的主要经济决定因素。此外，我们应用高斯汤普森抽样来评估关于内幕人择时动机的竞争假设。结果表明，机器学习方法在预测内部销售的可能性和规模方面大大优于线性模型，在女性内部人员中预测收益尤其明显。SHAP分析表明，激励结构对男性内部人的作用更大，而女性的交易行为似乎与公司未来业绩的私人信息更密切相关。

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引用次数: 0

Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen 模拟使用氢脱碳对英国空气质量的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179

Adam Brighty , Francisca Jalil-Vega , Nicolás Ripoll Kameid , Seokyoung Kim , Tim Oxley , Daniel Mehlig , Mike Holland , Paul E. Dodds , Helen ApSimon

Many air pollutants are directly or indirectly caused by energy production and consumption. There is concern that decarbonising economies by replacing fossil fuel with hydrogen combustion could lead to higher pollutant emissions than by an electrification strategy. This study examines the implications of adopting hydrogen. Future UK energy scenarios, with varying levels of hydrogen, have been produced using the UK TIMES energy systems model, and a link established to the air pollution model UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model). Using this interface, air pollutant emissions from the energy sector have been derived and superimposed on non-energy contributions to map concentrations and estimate the resulting exposure to PM_2.5 and NO₂ pollution in the UK and associated health benefits. All net zero scenarios achieve a substantial improvement in air quality, with a maximum of 0.3 μg m⁻³ contribution to PM_2.5 population-weighted mean concentrations from hydrogen production and use. This depends on the hydrogen technologies used: as a worst case, hydrogen could eliminate 50% of the economic benefits resulting from improved air quality under net zero measures.

This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NO_x. However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM_2.5 emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM_2.5 concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios.

许多空气污染物是由能源生产和消费直接或间接造成的。有人担心，与电气化战略相比，用氢燃烧取代化石燃料的脱碳经济可能会导致更高的污染物排放。本研究考察了采用氢的影响。使用英国时报能源系统模型，并与空气污染模型UKIAM（英国综合评估模型）建立了联系，得出了未来英国能源情景，氢气含量各不相同。利用该界面，我们推导出能源部门的空气污染物排放量，并将其与非能源贡献叠加在地图浓度上，从而估算出英国由此暴露于PM2.5和二氧化氮污染以及相关的健康效益。所有净零情景都实现了空气质量的大幅改善，氢气生产和使用对PM2.5人口加权平均浓度的贡献最大为0.3 μg m−3。这取决于所使用的氢技术：在最坏的情况下，在净零措施下，氢可能会抵消50%的空气质量改善带来的经济效益。尽管氢气生产和使用的排放因素符合氮氧化物的潜在监管限制，但这种不利因素仍然存在。然而，技术改进可能会大大减少排放。应该把注意力转向了解氢在哪里被用来取代其他未来或现有的能源。PM2.5排放的其他来源可能对影响PM2.5浓度更为重要，如道路运输非废气排放和生物质燃烧，在未来的能源情景中应予以认真考虑。

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引用次数: 0

Enabling enterprise coordination without fiscal burden: New policy pathways for coal waste management 使企业协调没有财政负担：煤炭废物管理的新政策途径

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115195

Jiaojiao Ge , Lun Ran , Jiancai Wang

Coal-fired power plants generate substantial waste that requires green pretreatment before valorization, yet high costs and demand uncertainty discourage investment. Although government subsidies are often advocated to promote waste management, this study focuses on an implementable, enterprise-led alternative: recycler-provided pretreatment cost sharing as a contract-based mechanism within the supply chain, alongside recycler-to-plant demand information sharing. Using a game-theoretic model with demand uncertainty and quality differentiation, we compare equilibrium outcomes under four coordination regimes: no cooperation, information sharing only, subsidization only, and a combined mechanism. Results show that information transparency robustly improves coordination by enabling state-contingent pretreatment decisions and sustaining mutual profitability across diverse market conditions. Subsidization increases pretreatment by relieving the plant’s effective cost burden, but its attractiveness to the recycler is limited by direct payment costs, implying that cost-sharing requires targeted, performance-linked design. Combining the two instruments can strengthen outcomes under uncertainty but often provides limited incremental benefits beyond transparency. Policy implications emphasize prioritizing transparency infrastructure, standardized disclosure, and data governance as a baseline, while facilitating subsidy-like cost sharing selectively in contexts where quality premia and uncertainty make cost relief more likely to generate shared gains.

燃煤电厂产生大量废弃物，需要绿色预处理才能实现价值增值，但高成本和需求不确定性阻碍了投资。虽然政府补贴经常被提倡促进废物管理，但本研究侧重于一个可实施的、企业主导的替代方案：作为供应链中基于合同的机制，回收商提供的预处理成本分担，以及回收商到工厂的需求信息共享。本文利用具有需求不确定性和质量差异的博弈论模型，比较了不合作、信息共享、补贴和联合机制下的均衡结果。研究结果表明，信息透明通过在不同市场条件下实现状态条件下的预处理决策和维持相互盈利能力，有力地改善了协调。补贴通过减轻工厂的有效成本负担来增加预处理，但其对回收商的吸引力受到直接支付成本的限制，这意味着成本分担需要有针对性的、与性能挂钩的设计。将这两种工具结合起来可以加强不确定情况下的成果，但除了透明度之外，往往只能提供有限的增量效益。政策影响强调优先考虑透明度基础设施、标准化披露和数据治理作为基线，同时在质量溢价和不确定性使成本减免更有可能产生共享收益的情况下，有选择地促进类似补贴的成本分担。

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引用次数: 0

Interpreting the willingness and ability of rural producers to engage in conservation efforts in the Chaco forest of Argentina 解释农村生产者参与阿根廷查科森林保护工作的意愿和能力

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108965

Cristina C. Nuñez Godoy , Gisela S. Córdoba , Federico Colombo Speroni , Leonidas O. Girardin

Forests, while crucial ecosystems for ecosystem services provision, face challenges such as deforestation and degradation, resulting in adverse social and ecological consequences. The Gran Chaco, a deforestation hotspot and vast dry forest in South America urgently demands landholder engagement in forest conservation. Innovative solutions, such as sustainable management practices are essential for long-term forest conservation and landholders' well-being. Landholders hold responsibility for extensive forested areas, and little is known about their diverse motivations and capabilities to engage in conservation within sustainable management practices. We used the Qmethod to investigate landholders' decision to allocate an exclusive area for conservation within their farmlands. Our results revealed four perspectives on their decision-making process: (a) Chaco forest appreciation and farmland residency, (b) farmland infrastructure and social support, (c) local roots and residence stability, and (d) external rewards. Understanding landholders' decision-making process might aids policymakers in designing effective forest conservation policies and promoting sustainable practices.

森林作为提供生态系统服务的关键生态系统，面临着诸如毁林和退化等挑战，造成不利的社会和生态后果。大查科是南美洲的森林砍伐热点和广阔的干旱森林，迫切需要土地所有者参与森林保护。创新的解决办法，如可持续的管理做法，对于长期森林保护和土地所有者的福祉至关重要。土地所有者对广阔的森林地区负有责任，但人们对他们在可持续管理实践范围内从事保护工作的各种动机和能力知之甚少。我们使用q方法来调查土地所有者在其农田内分配专属保护区的决定。我们的研究结果揭示了四个方面的决策过程：(a)查科森林增值和农田居住，(b)农田基础设施和社会支持，(c)当地根源和居住稳定性，以及(d)外部奖励。了解土地所有者的决策过程可能有助于决策者设计有效的森林保护政策和促进可持续实践。

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引用次数: 0

Friend-shoring, near-shoring, and reshoring in factories America, Asia, and Europe amid rising geopolitical tensions 在地缘政治紧张局势不断加剧的情况下，美国、亚洲和欧洲的工厂在“朋友支持”、“近岸支持”和“回流支持”

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102804

Mitsuyo Ando , Kazunobu Hayakawa , Fukunari Kimura , Hiroshi Mukunoki

This study empirically investigates changes in sourcing patterns across three major production hubs: Factory America, Factory Asia, and Factory Europe. Specifically, using international and intra-national trade data from 2015 to 2024, we examine four types of “shoring” strategies, i.e., political friend-shoring, economic friend-shoring, near-shoring, and reshoring, simultaneously. Our findings provide quantitative evidence of increasing reliance on political friend-shoring, weakening dependence on near-shoring, and recent progress in reshoring amid heightened geopolitical risks, whereas economic friend-shoring appears unattractive on average. Moreover, we show that greater product substitutability does not necessarily lead to more significant changes in sourcing. We also revealed a notable difference across regions in political friend-shoring. The degree of its dependence is consistently most substantial for Factory America, while political motivations remain relatively unattractive for Factory Asia, with some specific variations even within the same Factory.

本研究实证调查了三个主要生产中心的采购模式变化：美国工厂、亚洲工厂和欧洲工厂。具体而言，我们使用2015年至2024年的国际和国内贸易数据，同时研究了四种类型的“支持”策略，即政治支持、经济支持、近支持和回流。我们的研究结果提供了定量证据，表明在地缘政治风险加剧的情况下，人们越来越依赖政治上的朋友支持，对近岸支持的依赖减弱，以及最近在回流方面取得的进展，而经济上的朋友支持平均而言似乎没有吸引力。此外，我们还表明，更大的产品可替代性并不一定会导致采购方面更大的变化。我们还发现，不同地区在政治朋友支持方面存在显著差异。对美国工厂的依赖程度一直是最大的，而政治动机对亚洲工厂来说仍然相对没有吸引力，甚至在同一工厂内部也有一些具体的变化。

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引用次数: 0

Does sentiment influence corporate innovation investment? 情绪是否影响企业创新投资？

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101431

Karam Kim , Jonathan A. Batten , Doojin Ryu

This study examines whether market sentiment affects innovation investment by firms in an emerging market, focusing on Korean firms. We find a significantly positive relationship between market sentiment and innovation investment. For financially constrained firms, sentiment increases both innovation and physical investment, which indicates reliance on sentiment driven equity financing. Firms that are affiliated with chaebols are more likely to adjust research and development investment in response to market sentiment. During periods of high market uncertainty such as the COVID 19 period, the effect of market sentiment on research and development decisions is stronger for financially unconstrained firms. Managerial sentiment amplifies the effect of market sentiment on innovation but does not influence physical investment. Our results show that sentiment acts as an alternative financing mechanism that supports innovation in financially constrained firms.

本研究以韩国企业为研究对象，探讨市场情绪是否会影响新兴市场企业的创新投资。我们发现市场情绪与创新投资之间存在显著的正相关关系。对于资金紧张的企业，情绪增加了创新和实物投资，这表明对情绪驱动的股权融资的依赖。与财阀有关联的企业更有可能根据市场情绪调整研发投资。在市场高度不确定的时期，如COVID - 19时期，市场情绪对研发决策的影响对财务不受约束的公司更强。管理情绪放大了市场情绪对创新的影响，但不影响实物投资。我们的研究结果表明，在资金紧张的企业中，情绪作为一种替代融资机制支持创新。

引用次数: 0

Information concealment effects or signaling effect of industrial policy: Evidence from stock price crash risk 产业政策的信息隐藏效应或信号效应：来自股价崩盘风险的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101234

Guangrui Liu , Ying Fang , Jiani Yan , Ming Zhou , Zixin He

Industrial policies generate both positive and negative information effects. Existing research largely emphasizes their signaling benefits while overlooking potential adverse impacts. Using the High-Tech Enterprise Identification Policy (HTEP) as a quasi-natural experiment, this study applies a staggered difference-in-differences model to examine how industrial policy influences stock price crash risk. The findings reveal that HTEP produces an information concealment effect that heightens crash risk. This effect is most pronounced among nonstate-owned and pseudo high-tech enterprises, where controlling shareholders conceal negative information for tax arbitrage and equity transfer, further increasing risk. Channel analysis indicates that HTEP intensifies information asymmetry among external investors, amplifying market instability. Grounded in Type II agency theory, the study identifies research and development information manipulation as a new mechanism linking industrial policy to crash risk, thereby expanding the theoretical framework of stock price dynamics. These results provide empirical evidence on the information effects of industrial policy and offer policy insights to improve the design and execution of innovation-driven industrial strategies worldwide.

产业政策产生正面和负面的信息效应。现有的研究大多强调了它们的信号作用，而忽视了潜在的不利影响。本研究以高新技术企业认定政策（HTEP）为准自然实验，运用交错差中差模型考察产业政策对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究结果表明，HTEP产生了信息隐藏效应，增加了撞车风险。这种影响在非国有企业和伪高新技术企业中最为明显，控股股东隐瞒负面信息进行税收套利和股权转让，进一步增加了风险。渠道分析表明，HTEP加剧了外部投资者之间的信息不对称，放大了市场的不稳定性。本研究以第二类代理理论为基础，将研发信息操纵作为产业政策与崩溃风险联系的新机制，拓展了股价动态的理论框架。这些结果为产业政策的信息效应提供了实证证据，并为改善全球创新驱动产业战略的设计和执行提供了政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

Prolonged Neobroker usage: Analyzing investment behavior and its impact on trading specific financial products 长期使用新经纪商：分析投资行为及其对特定金融产品交易的影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101222

Jonas Freibauer , Silja Grawert

We study the impact of prolonged trading app usage on the investment behavior of Neobroker users. Therefore, we use representative data for German Neobroker users and general investors from a panel survey conducted three times over a period of 14 months. We show that the financial literacy of Neobroker users increases with the prolonged trading app use but still remains rather low. The annual (non-risk adjusted) return of Neobroker users is generally positively affected by owning derivatives and frequent trading. In addition, we investigate which determinants impact Neobroker users to trade special ETFs, cryptocurrencies, derivatives, and ETCs. We found an impact of risk tolerance, risk assessment of respective financial products, and trading frequency on Neobroker users to hold specific financial products. Surprisingly, the investment information source also influences Neobroker users regarding the trading of all four products.

我们研究了长时间使用交易应用程序对Neobroker用户投资行为的影响。因此，我们使用了德国nebrobroker用户和一般投资者的代表性数据，这些数据来自一项为期14个月的三次小组调查。我们发现，随着交易应用程序使用时间的延长，Neobroker用户的金融知识水平会提高，但仍然相当低。Neobroker用户的年度（非风险调整）回报通常受到拥有衍生品和频繁交易的积极影响。此外，我们还调查了哪些决定因素会影响Neobroker用户交易特殊etf、加密货币、衍生品和etf。我们发现风险承受能力、各自金融产品的风险评估和交易频率对Neobroker用户持有特定金融产品的影响。令人惊讶的是，投资信息源也会影响Neobroker用户对所有四种产品的交易。

引用次数: 0

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