Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2025.106263
Marianna Succurro , Cristiana Donati
This paper aims at exploring the current process of SMEs’ digital transformation in order to contribute to effective policy development. We first provide a definition of firms’ digital transformation and then investigate its fundamental determinants, so responding to the call for further research and more comprehensive understandings of the digital transformation process. The objective is to verify the impact of the regulatory environment on digital transformation of SMEs. The empirical analysis, based on data taken from the Flash Eurobarometer Survey of the European Commission, shows that the regulatory framework is strongly significant in explaining firms’ digital transformation. Specifically, SMEs’ awareness of the regulatory context and anticipated digital standards: 1) expedites their process of digital transformation; 2) positively moderates the relationship between any strategic plan and their digital transformation; 3) generates a relatively greater impact on the digital transformation of firms mainly involved in the adoption of more advanced digital technologies. Some policy implications conclude the work.
{"title":"The role of the regulatory framework in enhancing SMEs’ digital transformation","authors":"Marianna Succurro , Cristiana Donati","doi":"10.1016/j.irle.2025.106263","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irle.2025.106263","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims at exploring the current process of SMEs’ digital transformation in order to contribute to effective policy development. We first provide a definition of firms’ digital transformation and then investigate its fundamental determinants, so responding to the call for further research and more comprehensive understandings of the digital transformation process. The objective is to verify the impact of the regulatory environment on digital transformation of SMEs. The empirical analysis, based on data taken from the Flash Eurobarometer Survey of the European Commission, shows that the regulatory framework is strongly significant in explaining firms’ digital transformation. Specifically, SMEs’ awareness of the regulatory context and anticipated digital standards: 1) expedites their process of digital transformation; 2) positively moderates the relationship between any strategic plan and their digital transformation; 3) generates a relatively greater impact on the digital transformation of firms mainly involved in the adoption of more advanced digital technologies. Some policy implications conclude the work.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47202,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Law and Economics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 106263"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143776346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2025.105897
Kaiyang Wang , Xin-Yang Li , Bo-Wei Zhu , Lei Xiong , Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng
A growing body of research has investigated the associations between the physical environment features of neighborhood parks (NPs) and seniors' attitudes, usage intentions or behavior in the parks. However, research to date has not produced sufficient knowledge about the causal relationships between the physical features of neighborhood parks and seniors' attitudes. To fill this gap, this study takes 142 neighborhood parks located in Zhuhai of China as examples to explore the causal rules of the “environment-satisfaction” in neighborhood parks by using Rough Set Approach (RSA). This paper presents the results of 11 causal rules (i.e., if-then rules) between the physical features of neighborhood parks and seniors' positive/negative judgements. The findings can contribute to not only extending the academic research on the environmental preference of neighborhood green spaces among the seniors, but also to providing decision-makers with optimization strategies for designing or improving the neighborhood parks under the goal of aging in place.
{"title":"A data mining approach to explore the causal rules between environmental conditions of neighborhood parks and seniors' satisfaction","authors":"Kaiyang Wang , Xin-Yang Li , Bo-Wei Zhu , Lei Xiong , Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.105897","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.105897","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A growing body of research has investigated the associations between the physical environment features of neighborhood parks (NPs) and seniors' attitudes, usage intentions or behavior in the parks. However, research to date has not produced sufficient knowledge about the causal relationships between the physical features of neighborhood parks and seniors' attitudes. To fill this gap, this study takes 142 neighborhood parks located in Zhuhai of China as examples to explore the causal rules of the “environment-satisfaction” in neighborhood parks by using Rough Set Approach (RSA). This paper presents the results of 11 causal rules (i.e., if-then rules) between the physical features of neighborhood parks and seniors' positive/negative judgements. The findings can contribute to not only extending the academic research on the environmental preference of neighborhood green spaces among the seniors, but also to providing decision-makers with optimization strategies for designing or improving the neighborhood parks under the goal of aging in place.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 105897"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2025.102409
Toyotaka Sakai
We formulate an axiomatic model to analyze the problem of probability smoothing in Naïve Bayes. We define several desirable properties of smoothing methods. Our main result shows that the Laplace smoothing method is the only one that satisfies ratio preservation, order preservation, and positivity. An alternative characterization based on reallocation-proofness is also obtained.
{"title":"The probability smoothing problem: Characterizations of the Laplace method","authors":"Toyotaka Sakai","doi":"10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2025.102409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2025.102409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We formulate an axiomatic model to analyze the problem of probability smoothing in Naïve Bayes. We define several desirable properties of smoothing methods. Our main result shows that the Laplace smoothing method is the only one that satisfies <em>ratio preservation</em>, <em>order preservation</em>, and <em>positivity</em>. An alternative characterization based on <em>reallocation-proofness</em> is also obtained.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51118,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Social Sciences","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 102409"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143760339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
RETRACTION: C. Oteng, I. N. Nyame, “Idiosyncratic Covariates of Unemployment Duration in Ghana: The Joint Effect of Migration and Education,” African Development Review 36, no. 3 (2024): 444-456, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12772.
The above article, published online on 20 September 2024 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com), has been retracted by agreement between the authors; the journal Editor-in-Chief, Abdoulaye Coulibaly; African Development Bank; and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The retraction has been agreed due to major overlap with a previously published thesis from a different author. [1]
[1] E. A. Darko, “Unemployment Duration, Migration Intention, and Social Participation: Evidence from Selected Regions in Ghana,” PhD diss., University of Cape Coast, 2022, https://ir.ucc.edu.gh/xmlui/handle/123456789/10769.
{"title":"RETRACTION: Idiosyncratic Covariates of Unemployment Duration in Ghana: The Joint Effect of Migration and Education","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/afdr.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/afdr.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>RETRACTION</b>: C. Oteng, I. N. Nyame, “Idiosyncratic Covariates of Unemployment Duration in Ghana: The Joint Effect of Migration and Education,” <i>African Development Review</i> 36, no. 3 (2024): 444-456, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12772.</p><p>The above article, published online on 20 September 2024 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com), has been retracted by agreement between the authors; the journal Editor-in-Chief, Abdoulaye Coulibaly; African Development Bank; and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The retraction has been agreed due to major overlap with a previously published thesis from a different author. [1]</p><p>[1] E. A. Darko, “Unemployment Duration, Migration Intention, and Social Participation: Evidence from Selected Regions in Ghana,” PhD diss., <i>University of Cape Coast</i>, 2022, https://ir.ucc.edu.gh/xmlui/handle/123456789/10769.</p>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"37 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/afdr.70011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104094
Runfang Xu , Yixiang Qiao , Hongjun Lv
Drawing upon data from Chinese publicly traded companies over the span of 2009–2022, this study explores the relationship between the quality of accounting Information and the green innovation performance of firms. The empirical results indicate that the quality of accounting information can enhance corporate green innovation performance; The efficiency of management modulates the link between accounting information quality and green innovation achievements, with state - owned and private enterprises showing different patterns. Moreover, the effect of accounting information quality on green innovation performance varies between these two enterprise types; furthermore, the influence of accounting information quality on green innovation performance demonstrates heterogeneity between high-pollution and non-high-pollution enterprises.
{"title":"Quality of accounting information and corporate green innovation performance","authors":"Runfang Xu , Yixiang Qiao , Hongjun Lv","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drawing upon data from Chinese publicly traded companies over the span of 2009–2022, this study explores the relationship between the quality of accounting Information and the green innovation performance of firms. The empirical results indicate that the quality of accounting information can enhance corporate green innovation performance; The efficiency of management modulates the link between accounting information quality and green innovation achievements, with state - owned and private enterprises showing different patterns. Moreover, the effect of accounting information quality on green innovation performance varies between these two enterprise types; furthermore, the influence of accounting information quality on green innovation performance demonstrates heterogeneity between high-pollution and non-high-pollution enterprises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14444,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Economics & Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 104094"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143777297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106992
Makoto Hagiwara
We examine implementation problems in settings where individuals’ choice behavior may not be rational and sequential game forms are considered. First, we present an example in which a social choice rule that is not implementable in “behavioral” Nash equilibria (Proposition 6 in de Clippel (2014)) can be implemented in behavioral subgame perfect equilibria using a three-stage game form. Subsequently, we explore the use of sequential game forms in general implementation problems and provide a necessary condition and two sufficient conditions for implementability in behavioral subgame perfect equilibria.
{"title":"Behavioral subgame perfect implementation","authors":"Makoto Hagiwara","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine implementation problems in settings where individuals’ choice behavior may not be rational and sequential game forms are considered. First, we present an example in which a social choice rule that is not implementable in “behavioral” Nash equilibria (Proposition 6 in <span><span>de Clippel (2014)</span></span>) can be implemented in behavioral subgame perfect equilibria using a three-stage game form. Subsequently, we explore the use of sequential game forms in general implementation problems and provide a necessary condition and two sufficient conditions for implementability in behavioral subgame perfect equilibria.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106992"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143747215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104056
Kanika Balani , Bharat Sharma , Shalu Agrawal
Global progress toward universal electricity access (Goal 7) underpins the success of several other sustainable development goals (SDGs), given the role of electricity in powering lives, livelihoods, businesses, and community services. In India, the world's most populous country, a suite of policies, programmes and regulatory reforms have focussed on bridging the electricity access gap with significant success. However, many regions in India continue to grapple with an unreliable and poor-quality electricity supply, despite repeated reform measures. This is symptomatic of a vicious cycle of poor revenue recovery by electricity utilities, inadequate investment in infrastructure, electricity theft, and poor payment discipline among electricity users. Breaking this cycle requires understanding how policies function in practice, and the underlying causes of deviation from policy goals.
The literature points to a strong influence of the political economy on electricity sector governance. This study explores how informal governance and local socio-economic factors influence policy outcomes concerning electricity access in India. To do so, we use the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework to analyse the interactions among key local actors in Malihabad, an electricity distribution region in the state of Uttar Pradesh.
Our research indicates a complex layering of institutional rules that shape the decisions of local actors, providing both constraints and opportunities, and allowing for discretionary powers to the local actors such as the linesmen, village heads, and outsourced agents of the distribution company (discom), beyond formal roles. Further, the interplay of socio-economic realities, local social relations, and institutional conditions affect governance outcomes, often deviating from the intended policy goals. We argue that informal governance, rather than being viewed as a problem to solve, should be understood as a valuable resource that can inform and guide policy decisions for more effective outcomes.
{"title":"From linesmen to local leaders: How does informal governance influence India's electricity policy outcomes?","authors":"Kanika Balani , Bharat Sharma , Shalu Agrawal","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global progress toward universal electricity access (Goal 7) underpins the success of several other sustainable development goals (SDGs), given the role of electricity in powering lives, livelihoods, businesses, and community services. In India, the world's most populous country, a suite of policies, programmes and regulatory reforms have focussed on bridging the electricity access gap with significant success. However, many regions in India continue to grapple with an unreliable and poor-quality electricity supply, despite repeated reform measures. This is symptomatic of a vicious cycle of poor revenue recovery by electricity utilities, inadequate investment in infrastructure, electricity theft, and poor payment discipline among electricity users. Breaking this cycle requires understanding how policies function in practice, and the underlying causes of deviation from policy goals.</div><div>The literature points to a strong influence of the political economy on electricity sector governance. This study explores how informal governance and local socio-economic factors influence policy outcomes concerning electricity access in India. To do so, we use the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework to analyse the interactions among key local actors in Malihabad, an electricity distribution region in the state of Uttar Pradesh.</div><div>Our research indicates a complex layering of institutional rules that shape the decisions of local actors, providing both constraints and opportunities, and allowing for discretionary powers to the local actors such as the linesmen, village heads, and outsourced agents of the distribution company (discom), beyond formal roles. Further, the interplay of socio-economic realities, local social relations, and institutional conditions affect governance outcomes, often deviating from the intended policy goals. We argue that informal governance, rather than being viewed as a problem to solve, should be understood as a valuable resource that can inform and guide policy decisions for more effective outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 104056"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143747699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104052
Jose Angel Leiva Vilaplana , Guangya Yang , Emmanuel Ackom
The electricity sector is transforming to integrate renewable energy sources while ensuring grid quality, efficiency, and reliability. Such a transformation demands major investments from both private and public stakeholders. Economic appraisal tools such as cost–benefit analysis (CBA) have become increasingly relevant in identifying investments that optimize financial and social net benefits. Despite this, many CBA applications in the electricity sector, such as those for transmission and distribution infrastructure, tend to prioritize financial metrics and single-criterion evaluations, often neglecting broader social and environmental considerations. This highlights the need for a more inclusive approach to addressing these limitations. To this end, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the literature on CBA as applied to electricity infrastructure appraisals. First, the review examines various facets of CBA methodology, including its key steps, scope, standing, metrics, models, and approaches for addressing uncertainty. Second, this study analyzes relevant CBA guidelines employed to assess electricity projects’ social costs and benefits across the entire value chain, encompassing power generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use. Third, the paper highlights challenges and barriers within CBA guidelines, noting significant variations in their development and applicability across electricity domains and regions. The review categorizes these barriers into CBA into methodological, regulatory, and domain-specific barriers. Advancing CBA requires standardizing scope, unveiling cost and benefit causal chains, enhancing uncertainty handling, and leveraging synergies across regions to bridge gaps between theory and practice.
{"title":"From investment to net benefits: A review of guidelines and methodologies for cost–benefit analysis in the electricity sector","authors":"Jose Angel Leiva Vilaplana , Guangya Yang , Emmanuel Ackom","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The electricity sector is transforming to integrate renewable energy sources while ensuring grid quality, efficiency, and reliability. Such a transformation demands major investments from both private and public stakeholders. Economic appraisal tools such as cost–benefit analysis (CBA) have become increasingly relevant in identifying investments that optimize financial and social net benefits. Despite this, many CBA applications in the electricity sector, such as those for transmission and distribution infrastructure, tend to prioritize financial metrics and single-criterion evaluations, often neglecting broader social and environmental considerations. This highlights the need for a more inclusive approach to addressing these limitations. To this end, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the literature on CBA as applied to electricity infrastructure appraisals. First, the review examines various facets of CBA methodology, including its key steps, scope, standing, metrics, models, and approaches for addressing uncertainty. Second, this study analyzes relevant CBA guidelines employed to assess electricity projects’ social costs and benefits across the entire value chain, encompassing power generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use. Third, the paper highlights challenges and barriers within CBA guidelines, noting significant variations in their development and applicability across electricity domains and regions. The review categorizes these barriers into CBA into methodological, regulatory, and domain-specific barriers. Advancing CBA requires standardizing scope, unveiling cost and benefit causal chains, enhancing uncertainty handling, and leveraging synergies across regions to bridge gaps between theory and practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 104052"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143747987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1007/s11187-025-01041-2
Sophia Hess, Andreas Wahl, Alan R. Johnson
Entrepreneurial ecosystem measures should combine archival civic and self-reported entrepreneur data. This combination helps to overcome the limitations of aggregated archival data that affect our collective capacity to derive actionable insights for research and policy. Previous measurement approaches lack consistency with entrepreneurial ecosystem theory because they do not capture data at a sufficiently local level or data about entrepreneurs’ values, beliefs, and attitudes. This paper proposes a new measurement approach for EE elements at the district level (NUTS-3), facilitating comparisons of local geographic EE properties and measuring relations between entrepreneurs, new ventures, and their ecosystems. Using confirmatory factor analysis, we combine self-reported and archival data to connect the micro and macro dimensions of the entrepreneurial ecosystem phenomenon. Analyzing survey data from 257 founders of innovative startups across 29 NUTS-3 districts in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, our findings support the “substitutability logic” among ten entrepreneurial ecosystem elements and uncover district-level geographic properties. Our study offers replication possibilities, recommendations for entrepreneurs’ actions, and policy monitoring.
{"title":"Measuring entrepreneurial ecosystems across levels: a district approach","authors":"Sophia Hess, Andreas Wahl, Alan R. Johnson","doi":"10.1007/s11187-025-01041-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-025-01041-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Entrepreneurial ecosystem measures should combine archival civic and self-reported entrepreneur data. This combination helps to overcome the limitations of aggregated archival data that affect our collective capacity to derive actionable insights for research and policy. Previous measurement approaches lack consistency with entrepreneurial ecosystem theory because they do not capture data at a sufficiently local level or data about entrepreneurs’ values, beliefs, and attitudes. This paper proposes a new measurement approach for EE elements at the district level (NUTS-3), facilitating comparisons of local geographic EE properties and measuring relations between entrepreneurs, new ventures, and their ecosystems. Using confirmatory factor analysis, we combine self-reported and archival data to connect the micro and macro dimensions of the entrepreneurial ecosystem phenomenon. Analyzing survey data from 257 founders of innovative startups across 29 NUTS-3 districts in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, our findings support the “substitutability logic” among ten entrepreneurial ecosystem elements and uncover district-level geographic properties. Our study offers replication possibilities, recommendations for entrepreneurs’ actions, and policy monitoring.</p>","PeriodicalId":21803,"journal":{"name":"Small Business Economics","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143758514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105567
Aline Fernanda Soares , Renata Giovinazzo Spers , Ronaldo de Oliveira Santos Jhunior
The energy transition, driven by the widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles, is significantly influencing global copper demand due to copper's critical role in energy-efficient applications. This study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to project global copper demand through 2030, incorporating key variables such as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, copper prices, and aluminum prices as a substitute. The analysis adjusts copper consumption data to account for the contributions of wind and solar energy systems and electric vehicles, highlighting their growing influence on demand. Results show that GDP growth remains the primary driver of copper demand, with a strong correlation between annual changes in GDP and demand fluctuations. Copper demand demonstrates a slow response to price variations, with significant lagged effects. While aluminum serves as the primary substitute for copper, its limited performance in critical applications underscores copper's continued dominance in energy-related technologies. The adjusted model reveals that traditional econometric approaches may underestimate the impact of clean energy technologies, projecting substantial increases in copper demand by 2030 under different energy transition scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of integrating emerging trends into projection models to guide policymakers and industry stakeholders in addressing supply constraints, market volatility, and sustainability challenges.
{"title":"Projection of global copper demand in the context of energy transition","authors":"Aline Fernanda Soares , Renata Giovinazzo Spers , Ronaldo de Oliveira Santos Jhunior","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy transition, driven by the widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles, is significantly influencing global copper demand due to copper's critical role in energy-efficient applications. This study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to project global copper demand through 2030, incorporating key variables such as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, copper prices, and aluminum prices as a substitute. The analysis adjusts copper consumption data to account for the contributions of wind and solar energy systems and electric vehicles, highlighting their growing influence on demand. Results show that GDP growth remains the primary driver of copper demand, with a strong correlation between annual changes in GDP and demand fluctuations. Copper demand demonstrates a slow response to price variations, with significant lagged effects. While aluminum serves as the primary substitute for copper, its limited performance in critical applications underscores copper's continued dominance in energy-related technologies. The adjusted model reveals that traditional econometric approaches may underestimate the impact of clean energy technologies, projecting substantial increases in copper demand by 2030 under different energy transition scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of integrating emerging trends into projection models to guide policymakers and industry stakeholders in addressing supply constraints, market volatility, and sustainability challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105567"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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