Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115193
Mert Duygan , Maria Anna Hecher , Claudia R. Binder
To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, deployment of solar PV needs to be increased significantly. There is abundant literature on the adoption of solar PV. However, most of the prior work focused on adopters or their comparison with non-adopters. In contrast, there is relatively very little research explicitly on potential adopters and unlikely adopters. Hence, through a large-N survey with Swiss households (N = 4′909), we investigated what factors characterise unlikely, potential and early adopters and participants of solar PV and PV projects, respectively. We analysed the intention and adoption of residential solar PV and the participation in PV projects and compared the determinants of both alternatives. Our findings reveal that psychosocial characteristics and pro-solar policy beliefs as well as contextual factors are important for developing both an intention to adopt and to participate. The results also show that non-adopters and non-participants do not represent a uniform group. For potential adopters, the perceived characteristics of PV, exchanges about PV within personal network and housing infrastructure stand out as important factors that could hinder or drive the progress towards adoption. By providing a finer-grained insight into potential adopters and unlikely adopters/participants, our study enables targeting of different adopter categories more effectively.
{"title":"What determines the uptake of solar PV? – A survey of early, potential and unlikely adopters of residential PV systems and participants of community PV projects","authors":"Mert Duygan , Maria Anna Hecher , Claudia R. Binder","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115193","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115193","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, deployment of solar PV needs to be increased significantly. There is abundant literature on the adoption of solar PV. However, most of the prior work focused on adopters or their comparison with non-adopters. In contrast, there is relatively very little research explicitly on potential adopters and unlikely adopters. Hence, through a large-N survey with Swiss households (N = 4′909), we investigated what factors characterise unlikely, potential and early adopters and participants of solar PV and PV projects, respectively. We analysed the intention and adoption of residential solar PV and the participation in PV projects and compared the determinants of both alternatives. Our findings reveal that psychosocial characteristics and pro-solar policy beliefs as well as contextual factors are important for developing both an intention to adopt and to participate. The results also show that non-adopters and non-participants do not represent a uniform group. For potential adopters, the perceived characteristics of PV, exchanges about PV within personal network and housing infrastructure stand out as important factors that could hinder or drive the progress towards adoption. By providing a finer-grained insight into potential adopters and unlikely adopters/participants, our study enables targeting of different adopter categories more effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115193"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-23DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115188
A. Beutler-Greene , E.G. Waddington , P.J. Ansell
The paper considers the policy implications related to the way hydrogen operations have been depicted across the key challenges of production, distribution, and storage as well as specific guidance provided for the aviation industry. Among the alternative fuels under consideration for future U.S. aircraft fleets, many analysts view hydrogen as cost-effective and efficiently scalable. Given hydrogen’s potential as an energy source, there has been an increase in technical redesigns of aircraft to accommodate the relationship between hydrogen storage propulsion and energy systems along with experimentation with commercial aircraft models, culminating in an expansion of contemporary flight tests.
Using a balanced readiness assessment model, this paper evaluates policies undertaken by the U.S. Departments of Energy and Transportation, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, to promote hydrogen between 2000 and 2025. The sample of 13 policy documents revealed an imbalance in coverage related to operational maturity on aircraft, in contrast to the high degree of readiness for hydrogen across production, distribution, and storage domains. For aviation, a geometric mean for Technological Readiness is assessed at a level 4, Market Readiness at level 5; Regulatory Readiness at level 5; Acceptance Readiness at level 4, and Organizational Readiness at level 5. After the initial cross-stakeholder evaluation, the sample is mapped onto the Gartner Hype Cycle, where early innovation has occurred and hydrogen operations are ready for committed development. Critically, the imbalanced operational coverage of policies assessed in this sample was immediately followed by the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, which explicitly prioritizes the connection of hydrogen research to aviation operations.
{"title":"Evaluating readiness for hydrogen in the United States aviation industry from a policy lens","authors":"A. Beutler-Greene , E.G. Waddington , P.J. Ansell","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115188","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115188","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper considers the policy implications related to the way hydrogen operations have been depicted across the key challenges of production, distribution, and storage as well as specific guidance provided for the aviation industry. Among the alternative fuels under consideration for future U.S. aircraft fleets, many analysts view hydrogen as cost-effective and efficiently scalable. Given hydrogen’s potential as an energy source, there has been an increase in technical redesigns of aircraft to accommodate the relationship between hydrogen storage propulsion and energy systems along with experimentation with commercial aircraft models, culminating in an expansion of contemporary flight tests.</div><div>Using a balanced readiness assessment model, this paper evaluates policies undertaken by the U.S. Departments of Energy and Transportation, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, to promote hydrogen between 2000 and 2025. The sample of 13 policy documents revealed an imbalance in coverage related to operational maturity on aircraft, in contrast to the high degree of readiness for hydrogen across production, distribution, and storage domains. For aviation, a geometric mean for Technological Readiness is assessed at a level 4, Market Readiness at level 5; Regulatory Readiness at level 5; Acceptance Readiness at level 4, and Organizational Readiness at level 5. After the initial cross-stakeholder evaluation, the sample is mapped onto the Gartner Hype Cycle, where early innovation has occurred and hydrogen operations are ready for committed development. Critically, the imbalanced operational coverage of policies assessed in this sample was immediately followed by the FAA Reauthorization Act of <span><span>2024</span></span>, which explicitly prioritizes the connection of hydrogen research to aviation operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115188"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-10DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107328
Adel Daoud , Cindy Conlin , Connor T. Jerzak
Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002-2013), representative of 88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials’ map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery often shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger and more consistent gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include Trade and Tourism (330) for the World Bank (+12.29 IWI points), and Emergency Response (700) for China (+15.15). Assignment-mechanism analyses also show World Bank placement is often more predictable from imagery alone (as well as from tabular covariates). This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 67 times finer than prior fixed-effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but, for Chinese projects, directionally consistent effects. Methodologically, we extend recent EO–ML causal inference frameworks by fusing pre-treatment satellite imagery with tabular covariates to estimate treatment propensities, and by systematically benchmarking image-augmented estimators against tabular-only and unit fixed-effects designs using new assignment-mechanism diagnostics. Empirically, we provide a continent-wide, sector-specific comparison of the neighborhood-level wealth effects of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9899 African neighborhoods.
{"title":"Chinese vs. World Bank development projects: Insights from earth observation and computer vision on wealth gains in Africa, 2002–2013","authors":"Adel Daoud , Cindy Conlin , Connor T. Jerzak","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002-2013), representative of <span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials’ map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery often shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger and more consistent gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include <em>Trade and Tourism (330)</em> for the World Bank (+12.29 IWI points), and <em>Emergency Response (700)</em> for China (+15.15). Assignment-mechanism analyses also show World Bank placement is often more predictable from imagery alone (as well as from tabular covariates). This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 67 times finer than prior fixed-effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but, for Chinese projects, directionally consistent effects. Methodologically, we extend recent EO–ML causal inference frameworks by fusing pre-treatment satellite imagery with tabular covariates to estimate treatment propensities, and by systematically benchmarking image-augmented estimators against tabular-only and unit fixed-effects designs using new assignment-mechanism diagnostics. Empirically, we provide a continent-wide, sector-specific comparison of the neighborhood-level wealth effects of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9899 African neighborhoods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107328"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146147672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101241
Jaeyoung Yang, Seung Hun Han, Moonseok Choi
This study examines how kinship and social ties between CEOs and board members affect firm value. Surname sharing is leveraged as a proxy for kinship ties within the unique Confucian context of Korea. Utilizing a dataset of publicly listed Korean firms from 2011 to 2022, this study finds that CEO-board surname sharing has a negative relationship with firm value. This adverse effect is more pronounced when CEO power is higher. Stronger kinship ties appear to harm firm value through four channels: 1) Investment inefficiency, 2) Compensation inefficiency, 3) Reduced reporting quality, and 4) Deteriorated operating performance. These kinship ties are strengthened when offline meetings between clan associations take place. Moreover, boards comprising older members primarily drive the negative relationship with firm value, implying that time attenuates traditional Confucian kinship norms. By demonstrating how culturally embedded kinship and social ties influence firm value, the findings contribute to the literature on CEO-board dynamics and corporate governance.
{"title":"Kinship and social ties between CEOs and board members: Costs to firm value","authors":"Jaeyoung Yang, Seung Hun Han, Moonseok Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101241","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101241","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how kinship and social ties between CEOs and board members affect firm value. Surname sharing is leveraged as a proxy for kinship ties within the unique Confucian context of Korea. Utilizing a dataset of publicly listed Korean firms from 2011 to 2022, this study finds that CEO-board surname sharing has a negative relationship with firm value. This adverse effect is more pronounced when CEO power is higher. Stronger kinship ties appear to harm firm value through four channels: 1) Investment inefficiency, 2) Compensation inefficiency, 3) Reduced reporting quality, and 4) Deteriorated operating performance. These kinship ties are strengthened when offline meetings between clan associations take place. Moreover, boards comprising older members primarily drive the negative relationship with firm value, implying that time attenuates traditional Confucian kinship norms. By demonstrating how culturally embedded kinship and social ties influence firm value, the findings contribute to the literature on CEO-board dynamics and corporate governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101241"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146173099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-01-03DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101233
Tom Aabo , Viktor Raaby Jensen
CEOs matter, and beauty matters. Based on social identity theory, we argue that women and men are likely to be held to different beauty standards by the boards of directors when these boards select the new CEO. Our empirical results support our arguments. Specifically, we investigate 959 CEO turnovers in non-financial S&P 1500 firms in the period from 2008 to 2022. We find that newly appointed female CEOs are significantly more attractive than their male peers. Thus, the median female CEO is more attractive than a male CEO at the 75th percentile level. We find no indication of an economic rationale for such a biased beauty preference. When investors are informed of the new CEO, they value CEO beauty equally across the two genders (i.e., no gender bias). The discrimination by the boards of directors seems to be related to women's minority status (i.e., we get similar results for non-white candidates) rather than the sexualization of women although we cannot rule out that both may coincide. Our findings are robust and economically significant. Thus, they are important in understanding the lack of gender equality and the avenues through which women face (beauty) discrimination in the upper echelons.
{"title":"Only attractive women are welcome: Board bias and CEO selection","authors":"Tom Aabo , Viktor Raaby Jensen","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101233","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101233","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>CEOs matter, and beauty matters. Based on social identity theory, we argue that women and men are likely to be held to different beauty standards by the boards of directors when these boards select the new CEO. Our empirical results support our arguments. Specifically, we investigate 959 CEO turnovers in non-financial S&P 1500 firms in the period from 2008 to 2022. We find that newly appointed female CEOs are significantly more attractive than their male peers. Thus, the median female CEO is more attractive than a male CEO at the 75th percentile level. We find no indication of an economic rationale for such a biased beauty preference. When investors are informed of the new CEO, they value CEO beauty equally across the two genders (i.e., no gender bias). The discrimination by the boards of directors seems to be related to women's minority status (i.e., we get similar results for non-white candidates) rather than the sexualization of women although we cannot rule out that both may coincide. Our findings are robust and economically significant. Thus, they are important in understanding the lack of gender equality and the avenues through which women face (beauty) discrimination in the upper echelons.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101233"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108955
Jukka Kilgus , Trisha R. Shrum
Studies have shown that many people prioritize environmental protection over some levels of economic growth, even when tradeoffs exist. However, to date, most research on these tradeoffs has primarily been conducted in the Global North and has lacked cross-country comparisons. We elevate this research to a global level by analyzing data from the World Values Survey across 92 countries, focusing on how people's prioritization relates to demographic and socio-economic factors. Our results confirm previous findings that a majority of the global population favors environmental protection over economic growth (57.99%), especially in high-income countries in Western Europe, the Americas, and Oceania, as well as in Southeast Asia. Across the global average and in many countries, stronger support for the environment is found among more educated people, those leaning politically to the left, females, and younger individuals. Income does not have a significant effect on the global scale. However, and this is where our study offers new insights, the analyzed demographic and socio-economic factors have fundamentally different effects on prioritization within individual country samples. Especially in non-Western countries, the often-expected predictors for environmental support do not behave as anticipated. While our results cannot be interpreted as direct public support for post-growth systems change, they indicate that diverse groups of people, distinct across countries, support placing less emphasis on economic growth and more on the environment. Politicians and world leaders need to consider this when deciding on future political priorities.
{"title":"Global public opinion on tradeoffs between environmental protection and economic growth","authors":"Jukka Kilgus , Trisha R. Shrum","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Studies have shown that many people prioritize environmental protection over some levels of economic growth, even when tradeoffs exist. However, to date, most research on these tradeoffs has primarily been conducted in the Global North and has lacked cross-country comparisons. We elevate this research to a global level by analyzing data from the World Values Survey across 92 countries, focusing on how people's prioritization relates to demographic and socio-economic factors. Our results confirm previous findings that a majority of the global population favors environmental protection over economic growth (57.99%), especially in high-income countries in Western Europe, the Americas, and Oceania, as well as in Southeast Asia. Across the global average and in many countries, stronger support for the environment is found among more educated people, those leaning politically to the left, females, and younger individuals. Income does not have a significant effect on the global scale. However, and this is where our study offers new insights, the analyzed demographic and socio-economic factors have fundamentally different effects on prioritization within individual country samples. Especially in non-Western countries, the often-expected predictors for environmental support do not behave as anticipated. While our results cannot be interpreted as direct public support for post-growth systems change, they indicate that diverse groups of people, distinct across countries, support placing less emphasis on economic growth and more on the environment. Politicians and world leaders need to consider this when deciding on future political priorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108955"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146161053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108965
Cristina C. Nuñez Godoy , Gisela S. Córdoba , Federico Colombo Speroni , Leonidas O. Girardin
Forests, while crucial ecosystems for ecosystem services provision, face challenges such as deforestation and degradation, resulting in adverse social and ecological consequences. The Gran Chaco, a deforestation hotspot and vast dry forest in South America urgently demands landholder engagement in forest conservation. Innovative solutions, such as sustainable management practices are essential for long-term forest conservation and landholders' well-being. Landholders hold responsibility for extensive forested areas, and little is known about their diverse motivations and capabilities to engage in conservation within sustainable management practices. We used the Qmethod to investigate landholders' decision to allocate an exclusive area for conservation within their farmlands. Our results revealed four perspectives on their decision-making process: (a) Chaco forest appreciation and farmland residency, (b) farmland infrastructure and social support, (c) local roots and residence stability, and (d) external rewards. Understanding landholders' decision-making process might aids policymakers in designing effective forest conservation policies and promoting sustainable practices.
{"title":"Interpreting the willingness and ability of rural producers to engage in conservation efforts in the Chaco forest of Argentina","authors":"Cristina C. Nuñez Godoy , Gisela S. Córdoba , Federico Colombo Speroni , Leonidas O. Girardin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forests, while crucial ecosystems for ecosystem services provision, face challenges such as deforestation and degradation, resulting in adverse social and ecological consequences. The Gran Chaco, a deforestation hotspot and vast dry forest in South America urgently demands landholder engagement in forest conservation. Innovative solutions, such as sustainable management practices are essential for long-term forest conservation and landholders' well-being. Landholders hold responsibility for extensive forested areas, and little is known about their diverse motivations and capabilities to engage in conservation within sustainable management practices. We used the Qmethod to investigate landholders' decision to allocate an exclusive area for conservation within their farmlands. Our results revealed four perspectives on their decision-making process: (a) Chaco forest appreciation and farmland residency, (b) farmland infrastructure and social support, (c) local roots and residence stability, and (d) external rewards. Understanding landholders' decision-making process might aids policymakers in designing effective forest conservation policies and promoting sustainable practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108965"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146152993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-01-17DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101237
Solmaz Batebi, Ahmed Elnahas
This study examines whether machine learning (ML) techniques can improve the prediction of insider trading behaviour compared with traditional linear approaches. Using a comprehensive sample of U.S. insider trading data from 2000 to 2022, we compare ensemble learning methods—random forest and extreme gradient boosting—to logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). We implement Bayesian hyperparameter optimisation to improve model tuning and employ Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values to maintain interpretability and identify the principal economic determinants of insider trading decisions. Additionally, we apply Gaussian Thompson sampling to evaluate competing hypotheses about insiders' market-timing motives. The results demonstrate that ML methods substantially outperform linear models in predicting both the likelihood and magnitude of insider sales, with predictive gains particularly pronounced among female insiders. SHAP analysis indicates that incentive structures play a stronger role for male insiders, whereas female trading behaviour appears more closely associated with private information about future firm performance.
{"title":"Are machines better predictors of insider trading?","authors":"Solmaz Batebi, Ahmed Elnahas","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101237","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101237","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether machine learning (ML) techniques can improve the prediction of insider trading behaviour compared with traditional linear approaches. Using a comprehensive sample of U.S. insider trading data from 2000 to 2022, we compare ensemble learning methods—random forest and extreme gradient boosting—to logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). We implement Bayesian hyperparameter optimisation to improve model tuning and employ Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values to maintain interpretability and identify the principal economic determinants of insider trading decisions. Additionally, we apply Gaussian Thompson sampling to evaluate competing hypotheses about insiders' market-timing motives. The results demonstrate that ML methods substantially outperform linear models in predicting both the likelihood and magnitude of insider sales, with predictive gains particularly pronounced among female insiders. SHAP analysis indicates that incentive structures play a stronger role for male insiders, whereas female trading behaviour appears more closely associated with private information about future firm performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101237"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146023061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-20DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179
Adam Brighty , Francisca Jalil-Vega , Nicolás Ripoll Kameid , Seokyoung Kim , Tim Oxley , Daniel Mehlig , Mike Holland , Paul E. Dodds , Helen ApSimon
Many air pollutants are directly or indirectly caused by energy production and consumption. There is concern that decarbonising economies by replacing fossil fuel with hydrogen combustion could lead to higher pollutant emissions than by an electrification strategy. This study examines the implications of adopting hydrogen. Future UK energy scenarios, with varying levels of hydrogen, have been produced using the UK TIMES energy systems model, and a link established to the air pollution model UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model). Using this interface, air pollutant emissions from the energy sector have been derived and superimposed on non-energy contributions to map concentrations and estimate the resulting exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 pollution in the UK and associated health benefits. All net zero scenarios achieve a substantial improvement in air quality, with a maximum of 0.3 μg m−3 contribution to PM2.5 population-weighted mean concentrations from hydrogen production and use. This depends on the hydrogen technologies used: as a worst case, hydrogen could eliminate 50% of the economic benefits resulting from improved air quality under net zero measures.
This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NOx. However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM2.5 emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM2.5 concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios.
{"title":"Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen","authors":"Adam Brighty , Francisca Jalil-Vega , Nicolás Ripoll Kameid , Seokyoung Kim , Tim Oxley , Daniel Mehlig , Mike Holland , Paul E. Dodds , Helen ApSimon","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many air pollutants are directly or indirectly caused by energy production and consumption. There is concern that decarbonising economies by replacing fossil fuel with hydrogen combustion could lead to higher pollutant emissions than by an electrification strategy. This study examines the implications of adopting hydrogen. Future UK energy scenarios, with varying levels of hydrogen, have been produced using the UK TIMES energy systems model, and a link established to the air pollution model UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model). Using this interface, air pollutant emissions from the energy sector have been derived and superimposed on non-energy contributions to map concentrations and estimate the resulting exposure to PM<sub>2.5</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> pollution in the UK and associated health benefits. All net zero scenarios achieve a substantial improvement in air quality, with a maximum of 0.3 μg m<sup>−3</sup> contribution to PM<sub>2.5</sub> population-weighted mean concentrations from hydrogen production and use. This depends on the hydrogen technologies used: as a worst case, hydrogen could eliminate 50% of the economic benefits resulting from improved air quality under net zero measures.</div><div>This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NO<sub>x</sub>. However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115179"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115195
Jiaojiao Ge , Lun Ran , Jiancai Wang
Coal-fired power plants generate substantial waste that requires green pretreatment before valorization, yet high costs and demand uncertainty discourage investment. Although government subsidies are often advocated to promote waste management, this study focuses on an implementable, enterprise-led alternative: recycler-provided pretreatment cost sharing as a contract-based mechanism within the supply chain, alongside recycler-to-plant demand information sharing. Using a game-theoretic model with demand uncertainty and quality differentiation, we compare equilibrium outcomes under four coordination regimes: no cooperation, information sharing only, subsidization only, and a combined mechanism. Results show that information transparency robustly improves coordination by enabling state-contingent pretreatment decisions and sustaining mutual profitability across diverse market conditions. Subsidization increases pretreatment by relieving the plant’s effective cost burden, but its attractiveness to the recycler is limited by direct payment costs, implying that cost-sharing requires targeted, performance-linked design. Combining the two instruments can strengthen outcomes under uncertainty but often provides limited incremental benefits beyond transparency. Policy implications emphasize prioritizing transparency infrastructure, standardized disclosure, and data governance as a baseline, while facilitating subsidy-like cost sharing selectively in contexts where quality premia and uncertainty make cost relief more likely to generate shared gains.
{"title":"Enabling enterprise coordination without fiscal burden: New policy pathways for coal waste management","authors":"Jiaojiao Ge , Lun Ran , Jiancai Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115195","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115195","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coal-fired power plants generate substantial waste that requires green pretreatment before valorization, yet high costs and demand uncertainty discourage investment. Although government subsidies are often advocated to promote waste management, this study focuses on an implementable, enterprise-led alternative: recycler-provided pretreatment cost sharing as a contract-based mechanism within the supply chain, alongside recycler-to-plant demand information sharing. Using a game-theoretic model with demand uncertainty and quality differentiation, we compare equilibrium outcomes under four coordination regimes: no cooperation, information sharing only, subsidization only, and a combined mechanism. Results show that information transparency robustly improves coordination by enabling state-contingent pretreatment decisions and sustaining mutual profitability across diverse market conditions. Subsidization increases pretreatment by relieving the plant’s effective cost burden, but its attractiveness to the recycler is limited by direct payment costs, implying that cost-sharing requires targeted, performance-linked design. Combining the two instruments can strengthen outcomes under uncertainty but often provides limited incremental benefits beyond transparency. Policy implications emphasize prioritizing transparency infrastructure, standardized disclosure, and data governance as a baseline, while facilitating subsidy-like cost sharing selectively in contexts where quality premia and uncertainty make cost relief more likely to generate shared gains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115195"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号