Pub Date : 2024-12-12DOI: 10.1007/s11187-024-00986-0
Timothy E. Dore, Tetsuji Okazaki, Ken Onishi, Naoki Wakamori
Credit supply to small businesses may ease financial frictions, helping them grow faster and re-optimize the factor inputs for production, particularly when lumpy and/or long-term investment is required. We study how government loan programs address these two issues by combining the loan-level data with firms’ financial statements. We find that, with additional credit supplied by government, (i) small businesses are able to grow faster than similar firms, (ii) financially constrained firms invest relatively more on capital, and (iii) firms invest in long-term projects. We also find that differences in debt levels are persistent over time, suggesting that private credit supply does not substitute for the government-provided credit.
{"title":"Firm growth and financial constraints: evidence from a policy-based loan program","authors":"Timothy E. Dore, Tetsuji Okazaki, Ken Onishi, Naoki Wakamori","doi":"10.1007/s11187-024-00986-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-024-00986-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Credit supply to small businesses may ease financial frictions, helping them grow faster and re-optimize the factor inputs for production, particularly when lumpy and/or long-term investment is required. We study how government loan programs address these two issues by combining the loan-level data with firms’ financial statements. We find that, with additional credit supplied by government, (i) small businesses are able to grow faster than similar firms, (ii) financially constrained firms invest relatively more on capital, and (iii) firms invest in long-term projects. We also find that differences in debt levels are persistent over time, suggesting that private credit supply does not substitute for the government-provided credit.</p>","PeriodicalId":21803,"journal":{"name":"Small Business Economics","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142810073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qingxi Wang, Yueji Xin, Zhihua Tian, An Hu, Ye Liu
This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between resource industry dependence and urban resilience from three perspectives: ecological, economic, and social, contributing to the resource curse theory and the sustainable development of resource-dependent cities. We use the entropy method to establish an urban resilience index system to measure the resilience of 269 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2019, and construct a two-way fixed-effects model to test the impact of resource industry dependence on urban resilience. The results show that resource industry dependence impairs urban resilience, and this finding remains robust to the estimation using an instrumental variable approach. Moreover, mechanism tests show that resource industry dependence undermines urban resilience by inhibiting industrial structural upgrading and hindering green technological innovation. We further categorize urban resilience into ecological resilience, economic resilience, and social resilience, and find that resource industry dependence has a more significant negative impact on urban ecological resilience and social resilience than on economic resilience. Our investigations suggest that cities should develop strategies based on their unique endowments to reduce resource dependence, improve urban resilience by strengthening industrial systems and promoting innovation, and achieve sustainable economic development.
{"title":"Does Resource Industry Dependence Undermine Urban Resilience? Evidence From China","authors":"Qingxi Wang, Yueji Xin, Zhihua Tian, An Hu, Ye Liu","doi":"10.1111/grow.70012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70012","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between resource industry dependence and urban resilience from three perspectives: ecological, economic, and social, contributing to the resource curse theory and the sustainable development of resource-dependent cities. We use the entropy method to establish an urban resilience index system to measure the resilience of 269 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2019, and construct a two-way fixed-effects model to test the impact of resource industry dependence on urban resilience. The results show that resource industry dependence impairs urban resilience, and this finding remains robust to the estimation using an instrumental variable approach. Moreover, mechanism tests show that resource industry dependence undermines urban resilience by inhibiting industrial structural upgrading and hindering green technological innovation. We further categorize urban resilience into ecological resilience, economic resilience, and social resilience, and find that resource industry dependence has a more significant negative impact on urban ecological resilience and social resilience than on economic resilience. Our investigations suggest that cities should develop strategies based on their unique endowments to reduce resource dependence, improve urban resilience by strengthening industrial systems and promoting innovation, and achieve sustainable economic development.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142851466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study euro area investors' portfolio adjustment since the Brexit referendum in terms of securities issued in the UK or denominated in pound sterling, in the context of heightened policy uncertainty surrounding the exit process of the UK from the EU. Our sector-level analysis ‘looks-through’ holdings of investment fund shares to gauge euro area sectors' full exposures. Our key finding is the absence of a negative ‘Brexit-effect’, rendering UK-issued and pound-denominated securities less attractive. Instead, we observe that all euro area sectors increased their absolute and relative exposures to UK-issued and pound-denominated debt securities since the Brexit referendum, as well as to listed shares issued by UK nonfinancial corporations, while the exposures to shares issued by UK banks declined. These findings should be seen against the backdrop of low yields on euro area debt securities and a strong recovery in UK share prices since the Brexit referendum.
{"title":"Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum","authors":"Daniel Carvalho, Martin Schmitz","doi":"10.1111/infi.12453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12453","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study euro area investors' portfolio adjustment since the Brexit referendum in terms of securities issued in the UK or denominated in pound sterling, in the context of heightened policy uncertainty surrounding the exit process of the UK from the EU. Our sector-level analysis ‘looks-through’ holdings of investment fund shares to gauge euro area sectors' full exposures. Our key finding is the absence of a negative ‘Brexit-effect’, rendering UK-issued and pound-denominated securities less attractive. Instead, we observe that all euro area sectors increased their absolute and relative exposures to UK-issued and pound-denominated debt securities since the Brexit referendum, as well as to listed shares issued by UK nonfinancial corporations, while the exposures to shares issued by UK banks declined. These findings should be seen against the backdrop of low yields on euro area debt securities and a strong recovery in UK share prices since the Brexit referendum.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"27 3","pages":"203-230"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103973
Jack Liebersohn, Jesse Rothstein
Rising interest rates can create “mortgage rate lock” for homeowners with fixed rate mortgages, who can hold onto their low rates as long as they stay in their homes but would have to take on new mortgages with higher rates if they moved. We show mobility rates fell in 2022 and 2023 for homeowners with mortgages, as market rates rose. We observe both absolute declines and declines relative to homeowners without mortgages, who are unaffected by mortgage rate lock. Mobility declines are not explained by changes in home values. Overall, our estimates imply that rising interest rates reduced mobility in 2022 and 2023 for households with mortgages by 16% and caused $20bn of deadweight loss.
{"title":"Household mobility and mortgage rate lock","authors":"Jack Liebersohn, Jesse Rothstein","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103973","url":null,"abstract":"Rising interest rates can create “mortgage rate lock” for homeowners with fixed rate mortgages, who can hold onto their low rates as long as they stay in their homes but would have to take on new mortgages with higher rates if they moved. We show mobility rates fell in 2022 and 2023 for homeowners with mortgages, as market rates rose. We observe both absolute declines and declines relative to homeowners without mortgages, who are unaffected by mortgage rate lock. Mobility declines are not explained by changes in home values. Overall, our estimates imply that rising interest rates reduced mobility in 2022 and 2023 for households with mortgages by 16% and caused $20bn of deadweight loss.","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data","authors":"James Cloyne, Nicholas Dimsdale, Patrick Hürtgen","doi":"10.1086/732890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/732890","url":null,"abstract":"Journal of Political Economy, Ahead of Print. <br/>","PeriodicalId":16875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Political Economy","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142810082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108108
Andu Berha, Sandeep Mohapatra
This paper examines the effect of ownership structure on the distribution of household electricity costs and its implications for income inequality. We leverage data on household electricity expenditure, income, and utility tariff structures to provide new insights into the comparative merits of alternative ownership regimes in the U.S. electricity sector. We use ownership discontinuities between adjacent statistical areas to establish causal effects. We find strong evidence that electricity costs are more regressive under cooperative and public ownership, resulting in undesirable distributional outcomes. Households served by cooperative and publicly-owned utilities spend a larger share of their income on electricity than those served by private utilities. We present suggestive evidence that high fixed charges and limited segmentation of economically diverse consumer groups are potential mechanisms driving the observed regressivity of electricity costs. Our findings highlight the role of firms ownership structures and pricing strategies in shaping existing income inequality by determining how energy burdens are distributed across income groups.
{"title":"Distributional effects of energy costs: Does firm ownership structure matter?","authors":"Andu Berha, Sandeep Mohapatra","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108108","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of ownership structure on the distribution of household electricity costs and its implications for income inequality. We leverage data on household electricity expenditure, income, and utility tariff structures to provide new insights into the comparative merits of alternative ownership regimes in the U.S. electricity sector. We use ownership discontinuities between adjacent statistical areas to establish causal effects. We find strong evidence that electricity costs are more regressive under cooperative and public ownership, resulting in undesirable distributional outcomes. Households served by cooperative and publicly-owned utilities spend a larger share of their income on electricity than those served by private utilities. We present suggestive evidence that high fixed charges and limited segmentation of economically diverse consumer groups are potential mechanisms driving the observed regressivity of electricity costs. Our findings highlight the role of firms ownership structures and pricing strategies in shaping existing income inequality by determining how energy burdens are distributed across income groups.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106607
Akhil Raju, Vijaya B. Marisetty
ESG campaigns on rewards-based crowdfunding platforms face challenges due to their immeasurable rewards to investors. In this study, we examine the role of community activism and social ties in campaign success. Using community activism and social ties at county-level data in the US, we show that, those ESG campaigns (compared to propensity score matched non-ESG campaigns) launched in the counties with strong social ties and counties where there is higher civic engagement, show higher success rate. Our results highlight the role of quality of community engagement and the strength of social ties in ESG campaign success.
{"title":"Community activism, Social ties and ESG campaign success","authors":"Akhil Raju, Vijaya B. Marisetty","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2024.106607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106607","url":null,"abstract":"ESG campaigns on rewards-based crowdfunding platforms face challenges due to their immeasurable rewards to investors. In this study, we examine the role of community activism and social ties in campaign success. Using community activism and social ties at county-level data in the US, we show that, those ESG campaigns (compared to propensity score matched non-ESG campaigns) launched in the counties with strong social ties and counties where there is higher civic engagement, show higher success rate. Our results highlight the role of quality of community engagement and the strength of social ties in ESG campaign success.","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142884061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103874
Lu Liu, Shumeng Zhao
This paper conducts an in-depth examination of the impact of local government debt on firms' green total factor productivity (GTFP) based on data from A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, as well as local debt information, spanning from 2012 to 2022. It also explores the mechanism through which financing constraints act as a mediating variable. The research finds that local government debt has a more significant negative impact on the GTFP of non-state-owned enterprises, whereas state-owned enterprises, due to their close relationship with the government, are less affected. Further mechanism tests validate the mediating role of financing constraints, indicating that firms facing high financing constraints are more affected by the increase in local government debt, resulting in a significant decline in GTFP. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating policies aimed at enhancing firm productivity and sustainability.
{"title":"Local government debt, financing constraints and firms' green total factor productivity","authors":"Lu Liu, Shumeng Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103874","url":null,"abstract":"This paper conducts an in-depth examination of the impact of local government debt on firms' green total factor productivity (GTFP) based on data from A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, as well as local debt information, spanning from 2012 to 2022. It also explores the mechanism through which financing constraints act as a mediating variable. The research finds that local government debt has a more significant negative impact on the GTFP of non-state-owned enterprises, whereas state-owned enterprises, due to their close relationship with the government, are less affected. Further mechanism tests validate the mediating role of financing constraints, indicating that firms facing high financing constraints are more affected by the increase in local government debt, resulting in a significant decline in GTFP. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating policies aimed at enhancing firm productivity and sustainability.","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"125 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142874773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the impact of oil supply, demand, and risk shocks on U.S. state-level stock and bond returns, utilizing daily data from February 1994 to March 2024. It examines the individual effects of oil price shocks on each state's stock and bond returns and explores how fluctuations in oil prices influence the interdependence between state-level stock and bond markets. The findings reveal that oil demand shocks have a significant positive impact, while oil supply shocks have a significant negative impact on state-level stock returns. Although state-level bond returns also react to these supply and demand shocks, their response is statistically less significant than that of stock returns, indicating that cross-asset diversification is possible during periods of oil supply and demand shocks. However, both stock and bond returns are significantly and negatively affected by oil risk shocks, which implies limited opportunities for cross-asset diversification when oil price fluctuations are driven by risk factors. Additionally, the interdependence between U.S. equity and bond markets is more significantly influenced by oil risk shocks than by supply or demand shocks, suggesting an increase in the interconnectedness of stock and bond returns following an oil risk shock. Further analysis, using a reverse-MIDAS model to relate high-frequency connectedness measures to monthly oil price shocks, indicates that oil supply shocks positively and significantly impact stock market connectedness, while oil inventory demand shocks negatively affect bond market connectedness. Implications of our findings are discussed.
{"title":"Oil price shocks and the connectedness of US state-level financial markets","authors":"Onur Polat, Juncal Cunado, Oguzhan Cepni, Rangan Gupta","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108128","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of oil supply, demand, and risk shocks on U.S. state-level stock and bond returns, utilizing daily data from February 1994 to March 2024. It examines the individual effects of oil price shocks on each state's stock and bond returns and explores how fluctuations in oil prices influence the interdependence between state-level stock and bond markets. The findings reveal that oil demand shocks have a significant positive impact, while oil supply shocks have a significant negative impact on state-level stock returns. Although state-level bond returns also react to these supply and demand shocks, their response is statistically less significant than that of stock returns, indicating that cross-asset diversification is possible during periods of oil supply and demand shocks. However, both stock and bond returns are significantly and negatively affected by oil risk shocks, which implies limited opportunities for cross-asset diversification when oil price fluctuations are driven by risk factors. Additionally, the interdependence between U.S. equity and bond markets is more significantly influenced by oil risk shocks than by supply or demand shocks, suggesting an increase in the interconnectedness of stock and bond returns following an oil risk shock. Further analysis, using a reverse-MIDAS model to relate high-frequency connectedness measures to monthly oil price shocks, indicates that oil supply shocks positively and significantly impact stock market connectedness, while oil inventory demand shocks negatively affect bond market connectedness. Implications of our findings are discussed.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108126
Yongguang Zhu, Yuna Gong, Lanyong Yang, Deyi Xu
This study investigates the dynamic volatility spillovers among critical metals, traditional energy, and clean energy markets using a sophisticated frequency-domain approach. Leveraging the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise and time-varying parameter vector autoregression models, we decompose daily logarithmic returns into high, middle, and low-frequency components. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity in spillover effects across different frequencies, industries, and commodity categories. Clean energy sectors emerge as prominent contributors to market spillovers, reflecting their increasing sensitivity to short-term market dynamics. In contrast, traditional energy markets transition from being spillover sources to net recipients as the energy transition accelerates. Critical metals, particularly lithium and platinum, play a dominant role in long-term market integration, highlighting their growing importance in the global energy transition. These results provide actionable insights for policymakers and investors seeking to manage risks and optimize strategies in the evolving energy landscape.
{"title":"The rise of clean energy markets: Evidence from frequency-domain spillover effects between critical metals and energy markets","authors":"Yongguang Zhu, Yuna Gong, Lanyong Yang, Deyi Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108126","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the dynamic volatility spillovers among critical metals, traditional energy, and clean energy markets using a sophisticated frequency-domain approach. Leveraging the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise and time-varying parameter vector autoregression models, we decompose daily logarithmic returns into high, middle, and low-frequency components. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity in spillover effects across different frequencies, industries, and commodity categories. Clean energy sectors emerge as prominent contributors to market spillovers, reflecting their increasing sensitivity to short-term market dynamics. In contrast, traditional energy markets transition from being spillover sources to net recipients as the energy transition accelerates. Critical metals, particularly lithium and platinum, play a dominant role in long-term market integration, highlighting their growing importance in the global energy transition. These results provide actionable insights for policymakers and investors seeking to manage risks and optimize strategies in the evolving energy landscape.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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