The application of known technology to the agriculture of the OECD countries could produce far more food than their own populations need. Yet in transferring the surplus food to the food-deficient developing countries there could be problems in the logistics and energy costs of transport and distribution, in interference in conventional marketing arrangements, and in reducing the incentive to produce food in the needy countries. Thus a number of OECD countries are now examining whether they should restrict their levels of food production; certainly there could be less emphasis than in the past on food output per se. This could coincide with a number of unrelated developments which are likely to place restraints upon the level of food production. These include energy problems (food production at the margin is costly in energy), environmental pollution, food quality (including interest in systems of alternative agriculture), food and nutrition policy, and concern for animal welfare. As long as food supply appeared limiting, society was prepared to place only limited restraints on agricultural production systems; this attitude could change if food supplies move towards increasing surpluses. The paper considers the possible implications of such a change for the planning of R and D programmes in agriculture and food, and also for the production decisions taken on individual farms where food is produced. It concludes that, while the effect will differ between countries, depending on levels of self-sufficiency in food, in general increasing are likely to be placed on “output” as a primary objective of agricultural production systems.
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